Welcome to the thirty-first part of a thirty-two-part series: Reading the NFL Offseason Tea Leaves. Fantasy football tasseography is deeply rooted in predicting future fantasy fortunes. Some of the team tea cups we'll be looking into may be larger than others. The smallest of cups may have the most alluring blends of offensive weaponry, or be set to bloom after a long steep. This series will aid in your approach to Redraft and Dynasty leagues by bringing you up to date on:

• Free Agency
  • Re-signings, additions, who signed elsewhere, and what it means for fantasy.
• NFL Draft
  • What can we decipher about the direction a team is headed in based on their draft selections?
• Coaching Changes
  • Who's in, who's out, and how do the coaching philosophies translate to fantasy production?
• Fantasy Fortunes
  • What does this all mean for your fantasy football drafts?

Like tasseography, the arrangement of these four sections will vary as we digest each team's offseasons and see how the offensive pieces settle. Each article will interpret what this NFL team has told us about their future plans based on what they've done since their 2025 season ended. 

Reading the Buffalo Bills' 2026 Offseason

Coaching Changes: Brady and Carmichael

The Bills moved on from their long-time head coach, Sean McDermott, promoting their Offensive Coordinator, Joe Brady, to Head Coach this offseason. Long-time Sean Payton disciple Pete Carmichael steps in as the Bills' Offensive Coordinator. Brady and Carmichael have familiarity with each other, as they both worked together in New Orleans. Carmichael has talked highly of TE Dalton Kincaid this offseason and plans to make him a big part of their offensive game plan.

The DJ Moore Trade and the WR Room

The Bills made a splash this offseason by trading for DJ Moore. Moore will start the year as QB Josh Allen's number one target. Brady likely pushed for the Bills to trade for Moore because of their time together in Carolina five years ago.

In a March presser, Brady said, "Five years is a long time. But the player that I turned on the tape wasn't any different in terms of the way that he moved, the skill set, the opportunity, the big plays, using him in a bunch of different ways. I saw that, and I didn't see any drop-off. I saw a guy that there's a clear vision for how we're going to utilize him and get the ball in his hands. I know him and Josh; there's been a lot of work this offseason getting them on the same page, but I'm really excited about where that's gonna go." 

What else did the Bills do? Why, they drafted one of my favorite WR prospects in this draft class.

UConn's Skyler Bell will remain in the Northeast and will look to build upon his 2025 season, in which he went over 100 catches and 1,200 yards, finishing 3rd in the nation with 13 TDs.

While it might seem like a crowded WR room with Moore, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Josh Palmer, none of these guys have had more than four TDs in a season, and only one, Shakir, has gone over 800 receiving yards. Bell will look to make his case for the WR2 role behind the newly acquired Moore.

Bell's tape was some of my favorite in the class. Pre-draft, he was my WR5, and has fallen only three spots to WR8 in my pre-camp rankings after falling into the fourth round behind many other prospects in the class. If you play in dynasty leagues, make sure to target Bell in your rookie drafts ahead of his ADP. 

Coleman's camp highlights have been solid so far. Shakir is Josh's long-time safety blanket underneath who thrives after the catch with the ball in his hands. Palmer is shaping up to be a depth WR for the Bills in 2026. These three and Bell will compete for the WR2 role in this high-octane offense.

James Cook and the Backfield

Veteran RB James Cook is fresh off a league-leading 1,600-rushing-yard season. He is in line for the bellcow role again in Buffalo, and will be backed up by Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. Should Cook miss time, it'll likely be a running-back-by-committee approach in Buffalo.

Josh Allen, a Set-and-Forget QB1

If you find yourself not knowing what to do when you're on the clock, if Josh Allen is available, make it an easy click (or scribble on the draft board if you're old school) and take Allen. Allen isn't the QB who will throw for 50 TDs, but he will run in at least 10 on the ground and throw for another 25-30.

Allen has finished as the overall QB1 or QB2 in six straight seasons. Don't overthink it. Allen can single-handedly win your fantasy week.

Sync your Fantasy Football leagues with our League Hub FREE for a week 👆

The TE Room: Kincaid's Discount

TE Dalton Kincaid is heading into his fourth season. In his last two years, he failed to play more than 13 games. For his career, Kincaid is averaging 5.2 targets per game, which would put him on pace for 89 targets in a full, healthy season. That might allow him to hit my 60-catch threshold to attain TE1 status in 2026. Per KeepTradeCut, a year ago we valued Kincaid as the TE9 in dynasty.

He has slowly fallen out of favor, now valued as the TE15. This sentiment likely carries over across formats, allowing us to buy a potential TE1 at a discount. For redraft, his Average Draft Position (ADP) sits in the 10th round in PPR formats. If you want to buy into a TE on a high-powered offense, look no further than Kincaid, who could be in line for a breakout year if he stays healthy.

Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes are the other Bills TEs to know. This March, Knox restructured his contract, adding three years onto it to remain a Bill. Hawes enters his second year after proving to be a valuable blocker and pass catcher for the Bills as a rookie. Hawes is primarily a blocking TE for the Bills, but has converted nearly 16 percent of his total targets into TDs, proving to be a reliable threat in the red zone. 

Fantasy Fortunes

Not much changed for the Bills' offense. Expect another high-octane Bills offense, but this time with a clear WR1. Allen is a set-and-forget QB1 and will look to support an RB1, WR1 and WR2-3 and a TE1.

Rookie WR Bell is a high-upside second-round rookie draft pick in dynasty, and a late-round flier in redraft. If Kincaid emerges as the No. 2 target in this offense, we may see a Jeremy Shockey/Jimmy Graham-esque season from the fourth-year TE. The top-end talent of the Bills is worth the price of entry for 2026.