Fire & Ice: Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers For Week 4
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Fire & Ice: Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers For Week 4

By Optimus Staff · October 3, 2026

Welcome back to the weekly weather report you actually care about: Fire & Ice. (Ok, maybe you care about the actual Week 4 weather reports too, but that's besides the point).

The forecast for Week 4 is looking a little all over the place. Some players are heating up at exactly the right time, while others have left fantasy managers standing outside in the cold, wondering what the hell happened. We've also got a healthy dose of injuries thrown into the mix, because apparently three weeks of football was more than enough time for our rosters to start falling apart.

So grab your umbrella, pack a sweater, and maybe keep the fire extinguisher nearby. Our analysts have taken a look at this week's rankings and decided who is bringing the heat and who is headed for a cold front.

And with the weather this unpredictable, you probably shouldn't leave the house without checking the forecast first.

unusual weather we 're having ain 't it ? is written on a picture of wizard of oz characters

Let's get into Week 4 Fire & Ice.

Fire & Ice: Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers For Week 4

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Fire Players:

D.J. Moore, WR, Buffalo Bills

Consensus Rank: WR23

Lou's Rank: WR10 (+13)

To go full hipster, I had D.J. Moore ranked this highly before it was announced that New England CB Christian Gonzalez would miss Week 4.

Sometimes, it's simple. For me, that's D.J. Moore. In two fully healthy games, he's seen 8 and 10 targets. Buffalo has an implied total of 27.5 points, the game itself has an over/under of 48.5 (only two games have higher), and in three games Buffalo has scored 36, 41, and 24 points, with it taking 5 turnovers to limit Buffalo to 24.

With Buffalo favored by a TD, the fear that James Cook will take over the game the same way he did last week is a valid one. But that implied total of 27 is enough to leave room for both Cook and Moore to feast, and they're clearly the two best non-Josh Allen options on the team.

When I look at the guys ranked above Moore, I just can't say guys like Tee Higgins, George Pickens, or Josh Downs should be ahead of the electric Buffalo WR.

David Montgomery, RB, Houston Texans

Consensus Rank: RB22

Nate's Rank: RB13 (+9)

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Week 1 was a dream for David Montgomery managers, and honestly, it felt like vindication. After an offseason of hearing how he would be in a committee with second-year back Woody Marks, Montgomery was a bell cow with 2o0 carries for 60 yards and 2 rushing TDs, plus 3 catches for 19 yards and a TD. 

Since then, the well has dried up. In the Texans' last two games, Montgomery logged 17 carries for 44 yards and 4 catches for 29 yards, with no TDs. Concerning for sure, but not all weeks are equal.

Week 4 brings the in-state rival Dallas Cowboys. This early-season matchup is one the 0-3 Texans need to win, and Dallas just so happens to give up the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs (23). I expect a heavy-volume day from the veteran RB, spelled by Marks, with high TD potential. 

RB13 seems like an attainable mid-range finish for Montgomery, with RB21 being his absolute floor in a favorable matchup. Given the stacking injuries and player insecurities, don't hesitate to fire up Montgomery in Week 4.

Darren Waller, TE, Carolina Panthers

Consensus Rank: TE16

Kyle's Rank: TE10 (+6)

Since joining the Panthers on August 17, catching just the tail end of training camp, Darren Waller got involved right away in Week 1 with just a couple of catches. Then, in Week 2, the 34-year-old tight end scored 2 touchdowns. In Week 3, however, his usage jumped, earning him a team-high 8 targets. He seems to have made fast friends with Bryce Young. 

This week, the Panthers host the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football. Here are the tight ends the Lions have faced this year, with their fantasy points scored (Half-PPR) and weekly finish at the position: 

Week 1: Juwan Johnson, 12.9, TE 7

Week 2: Dalton Kincaid, 19, TE 3

Week 3: Kenyon Sadiq, 20, TE 4

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints

Consensus Rank: TE8

Jay's Rank: TE3 (+5)

Juwan Johnson might be this season's ROI winner through the first quarter of the season.

Going undrafted in many 10- or 12-team redraft leagues, Johnson, currently the PPR TE4, has been more than a pleasant surprise for fantasy players who waited to get a TE until late in their drafts.

Johnson has now firmly moved into every-week starter territory thanks to his chemistry with QB Tyler Shough and the Saints offense, which has been putting up fantasy fireworks weekly so far this season.

With the Atlanta Falcons coming up this week, who have already given up 3 touchdowns to tight ends this season, Johnson sits at the top of the second tier of TEs for me this week, just behind Bowers and McBride and slightly ahead of Kittle due to the matchup.

Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Consensus Rank: WR26

Smokey's Rank: WR18 (+8)

With Justin Jefferson out for Week 4 with an ankle injury, there is no one hotter than Jordan Addison. Even Jacobim Mugatu would agree. Addison has not seen the limelight in Minnesota since a 6-game stretch back in his 2023 rookie season. The first two games of which were with Kirk Cousins and Addison put up solid fantasy outings, while the last four were with Joshua Dobbs to lesser results. Now, he has two more seasons of experience under his belt, and finally has a Kyler.

After a quiet start to the season with a combined 2 catches for 21 yards in his first two games, he doubled up with 5 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown last week against the Buccaneers. While facing Miami might not have fans sweating, they are quietly allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. However, I don't care, and neither should you. The volume will be there, and that is what we are after, folks. Even when Jefferson returns, I see Addison remaining hot with a softball schedule with plus matchups in eight of ten weeks after their Week 6 Bye. I am sending out offers everywhere.

Ice Players:

Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Consensus Rank: RB18

Lou's Rank: RB32 (-14)

I hate when analysts do things like, "Well, if you take away <X play> that this player made, he's only the RB9001." Almost every player has some sort of outlier or strange plays; that's what makes this game so wackily great.

So with that said, Javonte Williams has been incredibly TD-dependent for his scoring so far this season, with 3 scored in as many games. Meanwhile, how many TDs has the Houston defense allowed to RBs so far this year? That's right, zero. "But it's a small sample size!" you correctly scream to the heavens. Looking back at last year, they allowed a total of 13 TDs to RBs over the full 17-game season. This isn't out of the norm for them.

15-20 touches is still enough to keep him relevant, so I might be undervaluing him a little. But if there was ever a week to start some more marginal RBs over Williams like a Tony Pollard or an RJ Harvey, this is the one.

Braelon Allen, RB, Jets

Consensus Rank: RB21

Nate's Rank: RB30 (-9)

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An old friend, the great Peter Howard, once said, "There are no such things as vacated targets," and I'm carrying that principle over to carries this week.  

Yeah, Breece Hall is out, and we all love third-year RB Braelon Allen. He's small but dynamic, powerful, and quick. That's fun to watch! Unfortunately, fun doesn't translate to volume. 

In Allen's first two seasons in New York, he's served limited duty, even when Hall has been out. He has once eclipsed 55 rushing yards (Week 3 of his 2024 rookie season versus New England) and has logged double-digit carries twice, most recently in Week 1 of this season. 

The most likely scenario in Hall's absence is a committee consisting of Allen, Isaiah Davis, and a sprinkling of Andrew Beck. If Allen scores a TD or catches a handful of meaningful passes, he could be a mid-range RB3, which is his ceiling this week. That wouldn't be a stretch, but it's a lot to bet on, and an RB21 finish seems like a fairy tale.  

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Consensus Rank: WR16

Kyle's Rank: WR24 (-8)

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Rashee Rice hasn't finished higher than WR 21 so far this year. The offense is being run through Kenneth Walker. Additionally, Travis Kelce has shown he has more tread left on the tires than some of us (certainly me) may have thought. Rice is tied for 37th in targets through three weeks, with just 17. Surely, Rice earning 9 targets in Week 3 is a step in the right direction. But another significant step is unlikely in Week 4.  

This week the Chiefs travel to Las Vegas for a divisional match with the Raiders. Somewhat surprisingly, the Raiders have fared well against opposing wideouts, allowing the third-fewest points to the position (Half-PPR). 

Starting the former second-round pick is going to be necessary for most managers this week, but it's best to keep expectations low. Some gamers may even feel the pull to make a riskier, more upside-driven decision elsewhere in their lineup. 

Parker Washington, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars 

Consensus Rank: WR9

Jay's Rank: WR16 (-7)

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I love the Jacksonville offense. I think Trevor Lawrence is hitting his stride with Liam Coen, and the run game is finally contributing in a meaningful way for the team.

All that said, Parker Washington as the ninth-ranked WR is just too rich for me.

Parker is a great player but has mostly been more consistent than explosive in his fantasy scoring. That is fantastic to have, and he should be clearly starting in almost every home league, but when we are talking about top-10 WRs, I want to see some more than we have gotten from him this season.

This is a scheme that is going to spread the ball around to different targets, with Washington only having more than 6 targets once this season.

Having him ranked ahead of players with 30-plus-point ceilings like Puka Nacua and Nico Collins, even coming off injury, is too much for me.

This is probably just my philosophical take on fantasy. I want to go with ceiling whenever I can as a tiebreaker. If you aren't first, you're last, and I'll always ride with the player who could win me a week rather than the one who will just keep me from losing.

BONUS from Smokey: The entire Green Bay Packers RB Room

Woof. And I don't mean a boisterous DMX-style bark; I mean Droopy Dog, dripping with every bit of sullen oof. You can't trust anyone. I mean, from LaFleur on down. Nothing is getting going for this offense, and their defense is not doing them any favors either. 

Josh Jacobs isn't here right now, and we have no idea if or when he will come back.

Marshawn Lloyd is currently leading the team with 68 rushing yards through three games.

Kaleb Johnson, who they traded for, has 38 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards through two games.

Chris Brooks is sitting disgustingly at 40 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

There is a better-than-decent chance you have put more yards out in the course of your day today than the Green Bay backfield has put out all season. This would be a great place to put it in perspective by saying Jordan Love is their leading rusher. But that would be a lie, as he has zero on the year. They are also going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are currently tied for 8th in the fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs, allowing an average of 55 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game.

There is no value to be had by starting, by holding, or by selling. It's just a bunch of woof.

For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!

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