Fire & Ice: Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers For Week 5
A cold wind blows, a shiver skitters up your spine, and the faint, fetid smell of an open grave tickles your nose. Spooky season? No, it's the bye weeks arriving, and the death and rotting you're experiencing are your early September fantasy drafts and rosters quickly rotting.
We know this is the time of year that who you start matters a lot less on who you drafted, and a lot more on who's performing. That's exactly what this column is for. The Optimus staff is here to help highlight some players that we believe will either exceed or fall short of the consensus expectations. And these are the weeks that will matter when it comes to your teams making the playoffs.
So don't be scared, double-check your rosters and waiver wires, and when in doubt, ask us! We're always happy to help with your decisions.
Fire & Ice: Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers For Week 5
Kyle Lesti: (@klest.bsky.social)
Fire Player: Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
After a sluggish start, Odunze finally cracked WR 2 territory last week, catching six of his seven targets for 94 yards. With at least six targets in each of the last two weeks, the former University of Washington Husky may finally be taking his place as a consistent top option (along with Coleston Loveland, of course) for the Chicago offense.
Tyson Bagent to Rome Odunze for 37!
— Da Bears (@chicagobearsx.bsky.social) October 4, 2026 at 2:25 PM
The Bears take the short trip to Green Bay this week to battle their division rivals. No, the Packers defense isn't exactly the Cowboys or the Lions, but you can beat them through the air. They've allowed 26.4 points per game (Half-PPR) to the position, putting them right in the middle of the league at 16th. I'm starting Odunze over guys like Josh Downs, teammate Luther Burden III, and Denzel Boston this week.
Ice Player: Denzel Boston, WR, Cleveland Browns
Though selected 15 picks after fellow rookie KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston has been the first to garner considerable fantasy attention this season. His attributes as a receiver pair well with Deshaun Watson, who historically hasn't been shy about taking shots downfield. As evidenced by his lofty ADOT of 17.4, Boston has emerged as a downfield threat for the Browns.
This week, however, it's best to temper expectations for my second former Husky of this article. The New York Jets have allowed the seventh fewest points to opposing wide receivers through four weeks. Devaughn Vele and Deebo Samuel are two guys that I'm starting ahead of Boston this week.
Lou Brunson (@brewpython27.bsky.social)
Fire Player: Kirk Cousins, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
Just in case you thought I was joking in our waiver wire article this week, I present to you, Kirk Cousins.
Cousins has thrown multiple TDs in every game this season, even the two games that All-World TE Brock Bowers missed. He's done it against very good defenses; he's done it in games where they were ahead the whole time, and he's done it against teams that were evenly matched. He only failed to reach 200 yards passing in the very first game of the season against Miami, a team that is, by all accounts, very bad.
The New England Patriots are not "very bad." They may have even regained their 2025 mojo in Week 4, and in that case the Raiders will need every good throw Cousins has in his arsenal. And New England is still missing their best CB, Christian Gonzalez, just to put a cherry on top.
I know, you're going to be tempted to start guys like the single-elbowed Jayden Daniels or Sean Payton-backed Bo Nix ahead of Cousins this week. Cousins has earned QB1 status until further notice, and he certainly hasn't given notice otherwise yet.
CB Christian Gonzalez, CB Carlton tDavis III, FB Reggie Gilliam, CB Karon Prunty, CB Channing Canada and WR Mack Hollins are all out vs. the Raiders, per Mike Vrabel.
— Mike Reiss (@mikereiss.bsky.social) October 9, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Fire Player: Dohnte Meyers, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Ok, I can hear it now. "But, Ja'Marr Chase is gonna play! But Tee Higgins might play too, and relegate him to the bench!" You're absolutely right. But we'll have that information nice and early before you have to decide on your starting lineups.
Once Ja'Marr Chase left the Week 4 game with his concussion, Meyers played 59 out of 59 snaps. That's not a part-time player; that's a guy stepping up when called upon. Even better, he earned 8 of his 9(!) targets after Chase left the game. Once again, a guy stepping up. Now, I doubt we'll see Joe Burrow throw 54 passes again, but he's usually in the mid-30s, which is enough for Meyers to see 6-8 targets, and from a QB like Burrow, that's enough to finish as a WR2.
So why rush out and force guys like Malik Washington or Deebo Samuel in a rough matchup into your WR2 spot, when you can pick up Dohnte Meyers and profit for free? Or even worse yet, my Ice of the week….
Ice Player: Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
He'd just come off of 9 and 11 target games, Keenan Allen was out, and Washington's secondary just isn't good. Everything was set up for him to have a great game, and instead he tied for 4th on the team in targets with 4. Do you know how hard it is to get out-targeted by Ashton Dulin and Laquon Treadwell?!
And now he goes from playing against the wet paper towel defense of the Commanders to the, well, Steel Curtain in Pittsburgh. They're not the terrors of yesteryear, but they're vastly superior to Washington.
Don't get me wrong, you might not have better options between bye weeks and injuries; it's rough out there. But you could troll the waiver wire for guys like Roman Wilson, Tre Harris, or even the aforementioned Dohnte Meyers.
Colts WR routes run in Week 4:
Josh Downs: 30 (81% route share)
Laquon Treadwell: 28 (76%)
Ashton Dulin: 18 (49%)
(Everyone else under 5 routes)Downs had a 14% target share, tying the lowest mark of his season. He was over 30% in Weeks 2 and 3 without Alec Pierce.
— JJ Zachariason (@lateroundqb.bsky.social) October 5, 2026 at 9:40 AM
Josh 'Smokey-Hell' Nelson @thesmokeshow.bsky.social
Fire Player: Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans
Seven months ago, I sent out a skeet stating my belief that Carnell Tate would end up a Top 24 WR this season. I am well on my way to vindication! I am also not alone in this train, even NBC Sports/Rotoworld's Denny Carter is along for this ride.
The thing that is really getting me going is that juicy target share. He's sitting behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba in overall target share at 29.9%. It's not a total surprise, his main competition is Wan'Dale Robinson, who Carnell is besting in nearly every statistical category, save one. Touchdowns. Wan'Dale so far has received 4 red zone targets to Carnell's 1, but I do not expect that ratio to hold. If I'm given the choice of the 5'8', 185 lbs Year 4 player or the stud 6'2", 192 lbs rookie with elite hands in contested catches, I'm probably going to skew towards the quite obvious choice.
I guess Calvin Ridley is still there? He is more the broken statue of Ozymandias at this point, in front of the vast desert to the guy he was in Atlanta. Carnell can be king of target mountain, but how high can that peak go? If we're looking at the numbers for quarterback Cam Ward, the improvement upon last year is noticeable.
You know who could be a big part of that? The guy you should be going to get for your rosters now. And I do mean now, because he's going up against the Houston Texans this week, who are allowing the most fantasy points league-wide to the WR position. Acquire now, thank me after Championship Week.
Ice Player: Ollie Gordon, RB, Miami Dolphins
As much as it pleased me to tout Carnell Tate in the Fire column, it pains me to have Ollie on Ice. I was big into Ollie after his breakout 2023 season at Oklahoma State, but he has been struggling to meet those expectations, whether due to usage or being behind wunderkind De'Von Achane in Miami. The latter is not an issue at the moment, and in the one week he has had the spotlight, Ollie delivered! 100 yards rushing with a TD, as well as a couple bonus receptions. Honestly, I'm not really worried about Ollie. I know this isn't going to last forever, and that's not even why he's my Ice player.
Miami brought in Kaytron Allen, fresh off being dumped to waivers by the Washington Commanders. I am not worried about Kaytron Allen. However, I am worried about Miami constantly bringing in more. Maybe Ollie is too good for the tank they're trying to accomplish and they need to dull that shine a bit. It does not inspire confidence, and in fantasy we have to be water and react to situations as they arise. Going up against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are giving up the 11th fewest fantasy points to RBs, might quell the storm Ollie began building last week. If that happens, we could see a fruitless rotation that helps no one, especially the Miami Dolphins. Which might just be what they want. I really hope I am wrong on this call, as I am hoping for the best with Ollie Gordon, but hoping for the best does not always make for championship runs.
Cameron Templar (@whiteheatff.bsky.social)
Fire Player: Antonio Williams, WR, Washington Commanders
With Diggs out in Week 5 and Terry McLaurin potentially hampered, I like Williams' potential to have a WR2 week. If you read my film breakdown on his Week 4 performance, you'll remember that he was an illegal shift away from having 100 yards and a TD. Williams works the intermediate area of the field for WAS, and with Diggs out he will likely see more of the short/underneath work in the offense. Williams is available in most formats, and should exceed the consensus ranking at WR throughout the industry this week.
Ice Player: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders
Another Commander from me, but this time I want you to put them in the freezer. The Commanders brought in a ton of RBs to compete with JCM in the backfield. Then, five days before the game in Week 4 they signed Austin Ekeler who saw nearly 30% of the snaps after missing the entire offseason. JCM has been <50% of offensive snaps in 3 of 4 weeks. Ekeler in the mix and Rachaad White healthy going into this week, I think there's a chance JCM falls into the RB3-4 conversation. The expert consensus has him as a backend RB2 across the industry. Don't get fooled by a guy in a multiheaded backfield that continues to add competition for him.
Nate Polvogt (@natepolvogt.optimusfantasy.com)
Fire Player: Jameis Winston, QB, New York Giants
I know, Jameis Winston is a liability in the real NFL. He throws interceptions and makes bad decisions. But he'll also get you 250 passing yards and three TDs against bad defenses, like last week against the Arizona Cardinals. And as bad as the Cardinals' defense is, the Giants' Week 5 opponent, the Washington Commanders, are even worse. Despite mostly shutting down Colts QB Daniel Jones in Week 4, their defense is giving up the second-most fantasy points to QBs. They're also in the bottom five against WRs and TEs. This is a perfect recipe for Winston to have another top-12 QB week, which is exactly where I have him ranked.
Ice Player: Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets
With Breece Hall already ruled out for Sunday's matchup against Cleveland, the obvious inclination is to hop all over the Jets RB2, Braelon Allen. You're more than welcome to do so, but I'd caution you to look elsewhere if you're expecting mid-range RB2 production from Allen, as some are based on his consensus ranking this week. That would be fine in some weeks, but not this week against the Browns, who are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season.
I touched on it in my waiver wire stashes column yesterday, and it stays true today. This matchup is ripe for a pass-heavy game for Geno Smith, and while Allen works well as a receiver, betting on that to elevate him is risky at best. Last week, even with an opportunity to throw to Alen, he saw two targets for eight receiving yards, along with 14 carries for 54 yards. This week is likely to end similarly or worse for Allen, and it would be a stretch to see him finish higher than RB25. If you want to roll Allen out as a flex option this week, he might be the best you've got, but I implore you to look elsewhere for your fantasy RB room this week.
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