The NFL Numbers Game Week 1: The Stats You Need to Know
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The NFL Numbers Game Week 1: The Stats You Need to Know

By Optimus Staff · September 15, 2026

Week 1 is in the books, which means we have exactly one week's worth of data to confidently overreact to. Perfect.

a man in a suit has a name tag that says johnny on it

The 2026 opening week gave us some truly ridiculous numbers: 86 plays in New Orleans, eight touchdowns in Chicago, Derrick Henry apparently refusing to acknowledge that Father Time exists, and enough RB timeshare discourse to last us until Week 2.

But that's the point of The NFL Numbers Game: we are not here to tell you what will happen. We're here to dig through the numbers, figure out what actually matters, and try to separate the Week 1 noise from the things worth paying attention to.

So let's get into it. The numbers are fresh, the sample size is terrible, and we have thoughts.

The NFL Numbers Game Week 1: The Stats You Need to Know

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Hey Rookie, Welcome to the NFL

Rookie Jadarian Price earned a 50% snap share, taking 45.5% of the team's carries and running 11 routes. A lot is being made about how George Holani limited him, but for a 1st game ever in the NFL, that seems pretty reasonable as a floor.

Everything about the Seattle passing game is exactly the same as it was in 2025. There's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and there's everybody else.

Welcome to the IRP

DeMario Douglas (21.2% target share) and Mack Hollins (15.2% target share) led the way for the pass catchers in the wake of A.J. Brown's high-ankle injury. The injury game is a poor predictor for what happens next, according to Lou Brunson's research for the Injury Response Protocol (IRP). So the actual beneficiary remains to be seen.

The Hype Wasn't Real

You can look at Kyren Williams' and Blake Corum's carries - 11 to 10 - and reason that they're essentially RB1a and RB1b. The snap shares - 63.2% to 22.8% - and routes run - 20 to 2 - tell a much different story.

Crampin' Down Under

For the first time in forever, Christian McCaffrey didn't dominate the offensive snaps when he was healthy, splitting 54.7% to 43.8% with rookie Kaelon Black. Apparently due to cramping early in the game, so don't read too much into it. Yet.

George Kittle managed a reasonable 24.7% of air yards on 5 targets, considering he's coming back from a torn Achilles. But about 25 of those 40 were on a single play that wasn't particularly close. 

Hot Potato

4 fumbles, 4 fumbles lost. That's a rare enough feat that it happens not quite twice per year on average since 2021 and never to the same team more than once in a season.

Bucky Irving led the team in targets (7), followed by Emeka Egbuka (6) and Cade Otton (5). Egbuka far and away led the team in air yard share, capturing 69.4% of the team's total.

That whole "RB split" with Kenneth Gainwell that people were worried about? Well, it's half correct. Gainwell and Irving had 38.5% and 61.5% of the carries, respectively, but Irving dominated the targets 7 to 1.

Once in an Orange Moon

Ja'Marr Chase was third on the Bengals in targets earned, with only 4. If that feels impossible, it's actually more common than you'd think. The most recent occurrence was Week 9, 2025, and outside of his rookie year in 2021, it's happened an average of once/year. So get it out of the way now, I suppose.

Chase Brown is back to his snap-dominating ways, playing 74.6% of them. The difference in Week 1 was that Samaje Perine was active and only registered a 27% snap share himself. We want to see it continue, but this is what fantasy goodness is made of.

You Get a Play! You Get a Play! Everybody Gets a Play!

86 plays. 86. That's so many plays!

While 56 passing attempts isn't likely every week, an offense that's willing to run that quickly is a great sign. It means target percentages won't look great - even Chris Olave's 13 targets is only a 23.2% target share - but raw target numbers themselves will be wonderful. Which is exactly what we saw with Devaughn Vele and Travis Etienne earning 9 targets each, plus another 8 to TE…Noah Fant? Hopefully that last name is one of those Week 1 mirages and more of those find their way to Juwan Johnson.

The RB situation is strange. Etienne made up for his relative lack of domination in the running game - only 9 carries, tied for team lead with Kendre Miller - with those targets. And Etienne did out-snap Miller more than 2:1. So the identical number of carries is most likely an aberration that will correct itself going forward.

1.01 For a Reason

Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 szn is alive and well, everybody. He handled 87.9% of Detroit's rushing attempts. 34 combined touches is way too much - that's a 17-game pace of 578 for those counting along at home, expect that to come down at least some.

short week be damned, Jahmyr Gibbs is about to get another huge load on Thursday

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— The Coachspeak Index (@coachspeakindex.bsky.social) September 14, 2026 at 7:52 PM

Jameson Williams managers can take heart…kinda. He earned a 23.1% target share and led the team with 128 air yards, almost lapping Amon-Ra St. Brown's 65. Better days are ahead if he can get his drops under control.

Gang Green

The Jets have always looked like a siloed offense between Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and that doesn't look like it's changing. Plus, it was Tennessee Week 1, and tbd if it matters because the game was never in doubt. But any worries about an RB timeshare should be put to bed, with Hall garnering 24 touches while the game was in doubt to Braelon Allen's 10. The snaps were a little more even - 38 to 24 in favor of Hall - but we don't care if Allen gets snaps as long as Hall is able to score fantasy points with his.

The one place to be concerned is Geno Smith's 4 designed rushes on top of his 2 scrambles. If the Jets get into less favorable game scripts, this can limit Hall's touches as they overall run the ball less.

Pepperidge Farm Remembers

a cartoon says yeah i member with purple balls

Remember Calvin Ridley? Pepperidge Farms remembers. Heck, Ridley is old enough he was probably there when Pepperidge Farms was founded. But the fact of the matter is he ran 23 routes in Week 1, good for third on the team behind Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson (33 each). Despite that, Ridley earned ZERO PERCENT target share in Week 1. None, nada, zip, zilch. Not that I think anyone drafted him, but if you were holding out any hope of a resurgence? 

Tennessee also ran only 46 non-penalized plays. It's incredibly difficult to find any sort of fantasy relevance running so few plays in a game. This is something to watch as we go forward, because Tennessee may join Cleveland in the "we don't bother talking about them until they matter" zone. If there IS hope for Tennessee, it's in Carnell Tate. Despite earning the same target share (18.8%) and yards (38) as Robinson, Tate far surpassed him in air yards share (42.6% to 17.6%).

King of Father Time

Is Derrick Henry about to hand Father Time his first "L"? The 32-year-old (he'll be 33 in January) ripped off 144 yards on 24 carries. Three of those carries found paydirt, vaulting him past Marcus Allen to third in all-time rushing touchdowns. Henry even added a 19-yard scamper on the receiving end of a screen pass. 

It wasn't exactly a "cupcake" matchup either. While the Colts aren't exactly the '85 Bears, they did allow the tenth fewest points per game to opposing running backs last year. 

The biggest takeaway from the Ravens, however, is just how fast and clean the offense looked under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. In addition to Henry's domination on the ground, two huge 50+ yard pass plays helped propel quarterback Lamar Jackson to an easy 300-yard passing day. Zay Flowers, for his part, was open early and often before exiting the game late in the first half with a hamstring injury. We'll keep an eye on Flowers' injury this week.

A Little Help Here?!

Despite a strong showing from the former Badger Jonathan Taylor, a lackluster passing attack left the Colts unable to keep pace with Baltimore on Sunday. Quarterback Daniel Jones looked average at best in his first game back from his Achilles tear last year. 

After a strong opening drive, the Colts' offense struggled to stay on the field. Optimus' consensus TE 4, Tyler Warren, saved his fantasy day with the only "non-JT" touchdown. 

As for Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, Keenan Allen is going to cap their ceilings as long as he's around. Maybe Tyler Warren's too. The grizzly, maybe a lil' hungover vet, is too reliable and too good at catching everything thrown at him. 

The team will look to find their identity as they prepare for their Week 2 opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs. 

"I See What You've Done For Others, and I Want That For Me." - Drake London, Probably

Bijan Robinson clocking in with a 45.5% target rate from 3rd-string QB Cooper Rush will get all the headlines, and rightfully so. It can even stand to reason that Drake London only earned 4 targets because, well, there's a reason Cooper Rush is a 3rd-string QB. The truly shocking thing is TE Kyle Pitts only earning a single target for the Falcons.

It doesn't matter while Rush is the starter because Bijan gets so much work in the passing game, but Brian Robinson earned 9 carries himself. When one of the other QBs gets healthy and those 9 Bijan targets start finding their way to London and/or Pitts, Brian Robinson's presence will be annoying for Bijan managers.

Attention Seekers

D.K. Metcalf dominated Aaron Rodgers' attention in the passing game, earning 10 targets for a 24.4% target share and piling up a whopping 194 air yards, good for a 51.4% air yards share.

The RB timeshare is very real, with Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle showing a clear preference for Dowdle to take the lead in snaps: 57.8% to 35.9%, while Warren led in carries 10 to 8 and targets 6 to 4. However, Dowdle did run 21 routes to Warren's 13.

No Mercy Squad

When a team puts up 59 points, you expect everyone to eat. Meanwhile, the primary drafted pass-catchers for the Bears were left like so:

All of 5 targets for everyone's breakout star Luther Burden, barely half of *touches earpiece* Kalif Raymond's 9. Heck, the quartet of Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, and Colston Loveland combined for 8.

6 of the 8 TDs Chicago scored came on the ground. 8 TDs. In a single game. Cleveland might not score 8 TDs in 8 games. Ben Johnson said he wants to score 50 points every game. D'Andre Swift and Monangai took 39 and 31 snaps, respectively, and had pretty clearly defined roles. Swift earned 18 carries and ran 8 routes, while Monangai carried 10 times but ran 15 routes. 

Coke Heads Unite

Everyone who touted Jalen Coker, take a bow. For at least one week, we have a new WR1 for the Carolina Panthers, where he out-earned presumptive WR1 Tetairoa McMillan 9-8 and even out-snapped him by one, 54-53 (according to NFL Pro at ). Only Tommy Tremble managed even five targets. The Panthers won't get to play Chicago's sorry excuse for a defense every week, but it looks like there are two viable fantasy WRs in Carolina.

As for Jonathan Brooks' ascension? Time to slow that train. Brooks only took 13 snaps compared to Chuba Hubbard's 42, and only ran 5 routes vs. Hubbard's 25. There's a clear RB1 in Carolina, and it's Chuba Hubbard.

Factory of Sadness

62 of Deshaun Watson's 205 passing yards, in addition to Cleveland's only TD of the game, came in the final three minutes of the game while the Browns were losing 34-3. Don't let Watson's 9.32 YPA fool you into thinking there's something here when there isn't. Cleveland is a barren wasteland. Yes, even for Harold Fannin (three targets), who seemed immune to Cleveland's QB situation in 2025, as he trailed K.C. Concepcion, Denzel Boston, and Jerry Jeudy in targets (four each). 

Duuuuuvaallllll

Look, Cleveland didn't put up a fight, so don't read too much into the box score. Bhayshul Tuten out-carried Chris Rodriguez 2.5-1, while their snaps were close to even. That's pretty close to what you want to see as a Tuten manager.

Again, it was a huge blowout, so tough to read too much into it, but Parker Washington dominated the targets, doubling the 2nd-highest 6 to 3, which was shared by Brian Thomas and Brenton Strange.

Allen Gets a WR1

Buffalo has a new WR1. D.J. Moore led the Bills with 8 targets for a 24.1% target share, with a healthy aDOT of 19.4 yards. His 149 air yards back this up and means these weren't catch-and-runs.

Perpetual screen merchant Khalil Shakir only had an aDOT of 7.0 yards, but that actually doubles his 2025 aDOT of 3.5 yards.

3-Card Monty

"Who would step up for the injured Jayden Higgins?" For at least one week, the answer was TE Dalton Schultz, who earned 8 targets at a 21.1% target rate to trail only Nico Collins for Week 1.

For those wondering how the RB split would work out, snap-wise, David Montgomery carried on much like he always has, outsnapping Woody Marks 57.5% to 42.5%. However, Monty out-carried Marks 20 to 9, and even out-targeted Marks 3 to 1. 

For Whom The Bell Tolls

Rookie WR Caleb Douglas is a player to watch, folks. In an ambiguous WR room in Miami, Douglas took hold, notching a team-leading 5 catches and 93 receiving yards, despite seeing two fewer targets than veteran Malik Washington.

But what about rookie WR Chris Bell, who was supposed to be that guy? Two targets, one catch and 25 receiving yards. Do with that what you will. 

Jeanty From the Block

Mike Washington's impact on incumbent Ashton Jeanty was definitely overblown, as Jeanty registered a 73.1% snap share with 23 carries and 6 targets to Washington's 19.4% snap share with 7 carries and not a single target. 

With the absence of Brock Bowers, Mike Mayer led the Raiders with 7 targets, just like the IRP predicted. Leading wire to wire, the Raiders never needed a downfield attack and only Jalen Nailor exceeded 50 air yards for the Silver and Black.

Lloyd Have Mercy

Oh, how we kid ourselves. The absence of Josh Jacobs was supposed to mean Marshawn Lloyd time, and the Packers' run game would be fine. Wrong.

An embarrassing Week 1 loss can be traced back to the Packers' inability to run the ball. 20 carries total for the backfield, with 13 to Lloyd and 7 to Chris Brooks, totaling 66 yards and no TDs. More concerning? The pair combined for 2 targets and zero catches. Oof. 

The Land of 10,000 Lakes and No QB

The much-anticipated Kyler Murray QB1 debut in Minnesota ended quickly when Murray suffered a brutal concussion, ushering in journeyman Carson Wentz. There is a chance this becomes a long-term absence for Murray, leaving Wentz the likely starter. While he looked serviceable in relief of Murray in Week 1, we all know how it goes. The Wentz bubble deflates the longer he has to play.

Yes, there was a lot of excitement around Murray and what he could do for WR Justin Jefferson after a down season for the veteran. And as the fill-in behind center, Wentz fed Jefferson to the tune of 8 catches for 92 yards, 2 TDs, and a WR3 finish for Week 1 with 27.2 half-PPR points. But can Wentz keep him fed until Murray returns? Yes, because he did last year, too. In the five games Wentz played last season, Jefferson averaged 10 targets, 95.4 yards, and was WR10 in fantasy points per game with 16.3. 

Wentz can be bad and Jefferson can be good. Just cross your fingers and toes that J.J. McCarthy stays out of this conversation. 

Groundhog Day

For the second year in a row in Jacory Croskey-Merritt's young career, he looks like he's mired in a full RBBC. He clocked in with a 49.3% snap share in Week 1, while Rachaad White had a 40.3% snap share. At least Croskey-Merritt out-carried White 16 to 7, though.

Rookie WR Antonio Williams tied Terry McLaurin for second on the team in targets with 4, despite running only 12 routes to McLaurin's 34. Newcomer Stefon Diggs led the team on a 26.5% target share, earning 9 targets. 

When Life Gives You Lemons

Four players earned either 4 or 5 targets for the Eagles in Week 1, with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert each earning 5, and Dontayvion Wicks and rookie Makai Lemon earning 4. Lemon seems to be a screen player only, with an aDOT of -0.3 yards. Keep an eye on this going forward as he gets more work.

Nothing changes for Saquon Barkley; he still dominates the snap and carry shares for the Eagles. But there might be a changing of the guard at backup RB, where Will Shipley out-snapped and out-carried Tank Bigsby 17.0% to 11.3% and 9 to 6. 

This Team *Might* Be Kind of Good

Brissett had a strong debut against the Chargers in a Week 1 win, throwing 37 times, completing 73% of his passes for 277 yards. He wasn't a TD factory this week, but he spread the ball out to nine different receivers - Trey McBride led the charge with 12 targets.

The part that makes me think they might be good? They can run the ball, apparently. Week 1 was already considerably better than 2025, even if it's going to be a committee early on, with Allgeier handling 17 carries to rookie Jeremiyah Love's 11. The tandem combined for 102 yards and a pretty TD run by Love. 

Side note before you go: Don't worry about Allgeier's elevated snap share (56.9%) relative to Love's (44.4%) this week. That was the plan. 

That'll Do Laddy, That'll Do

Despite only playing 26 of the team's 51 offensive snaps - the leading WR played 40 - Ladd McConkey had an air yards share of 34.7% and earned 7 targets to lead the team on the day. If he's healthy, he's very clearly earning WR1 volume.

Omarion Hampton out-snapped Keaton Mitchell 56.9% to 31.4% for a 12 - 4 advantage in carries. Despite running 10 and 11 routes respectively, neither earned a target in the passing game, which was a big part of Hampton's fantasy appeal in 2025.

The Javonte Williams Show

Brevyn Spann-Ford earned exactly as many targets (2) as perennial late-round TE favorite Jake Ferguson, despite only running 9 routes to Ferguson's 24. Neither did anything with them, but this is something to keep our eyes on going forward.

With a 71.2% snap share and no other RB even hitting 10%, Javonte Williams is locked in to RB1 usage for Dallas. If their defense can keep them in positions to run the ball is an entirely different question, though.

Titans of New York

In 2025, the New York Giants' WR room was a laughingstock. Without Malik Nabers, QB Jaxson Dart was throwing to Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and TE Theo Johnson. Robinson, in the WR1 role minus Nabers, had 132 targets, exactly double the next-closest WR, and, depending on the day, you could see guys like Isaiah Hodgins, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Beaux Collins catching passes. 

Well, Nabers is back, it appears rookie Malachi Fields has stepped into the WR2 role, and new TE Isaiah Likely made waves immediately. Nabers and Likely combined for 157 receiving yards on 17 targets, with Likely snagging 2 TDs, in a surprisingly decisive Week 1 win over the Cowboys. They made Dart look pretty good, too, with a 79.3% completion rate, 3 TDs, and a clean INT column.

A lot can happen between now and the end of the season, but at first glance, it's like this Giants team is *probably* pretty good. 

FIN

So there you have it, the 2026 Numbers Game - Week 1. The important thing to keep in mind is that this is the smallest possible sample in a sport of small samples. Think back to 2025 Week 1, when Isaiah Likely and Keon Coleman put up stellar numbers, only to be largely irrelevant for most of the rest of the season. Stay frosty, and stay tuned. We'll be back next week with a whole new Game to play!

For more Optimus fun, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!

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