The NFL Numbers Game Week 4: The Stats You Need to Know
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The NFL Numbers Game Week 4: The Stats You Need to Know

By Lou Brunson · October 7, 2026

Four weeks into the season, and I think we've officially reached the point where I'm just accepting things.

Michael Wilson is a target hog. Chris Olave is apparently never coming off the field. Sam LaPorta is back in the conversation. Tyson Bagent made the Bears offense make sense. The Chargers running back room is a mess. And somewhere along the way, Bryce Young became the NFL's passing yards leader.

Sure. Why not.

There are still plenty of things I don't understand, but at this point I'm not sure I'm supposed to. This is fantasy football. We make decisions based on small samples, overreact to one game, and then spend the next six days convincing ourselves we were right all along.

So let's look at the numbers from Week 4 and see what they have to say. Because if nothing else, they're usually good for making me question at least a few of my life choices.

The NFL Numbers Game Week 4: The Stats You Need to Know

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Roman Wilson: Six Appeal

Roman Wilson's snaps have decreased dramatically now that Michael Pittman is healthy again (from 53 in Week 2, down to 23 in Week 3 and 19 in Week 4). However, Wilson has earned exactly six targets in every single game this season. Pittman, meanwhile, has yet to earn more than five, and he's done that only once so far.

Pat Friermuth hasn't out-targeted Darnell Washington since Week 2, when he did so five targets to two. Since then, the two TEs have earned exactly the same number in Week 3 (4) and Week 4 (5).

Quinshon Judkins: Keep It Coming

Quinshon Judkins' opportunities (carries + targets) have increased every week of the season. From 14 in Week 1, 17 in Week 2, 20 in Week 3, and then 24 in Week 4. In addition, he's earned five or more targets in both Week 2 and Week 4. He earned five or more targets in only a single game in 2025. 

Note: Typical pass-catching RB Dylan Sampson was either injured in or out completely for both of Judkins' 5+ target games in 2026.

Josh Downs: Just Running Around

With both Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen out, Josh Downs…was second among WRs in snaps, with 51, behind noted stud Laquon Treadwell. Downs did manage to run the most routes on the team with 30, though. He only managed to be tied for fourth in targets for the week, behind the aforementioned Treadwell and fellow alpha WR Ashton Dulin (both 6), as well as TE Tyler Warren.

For anyone confused, my praise of Treadwell and Dulin is 100% sarcastic. I'm sorry, Downs managers.

Athan Kaliakmanis: May the Odds Ever Be Not in Your Favor

After backup Marcus Mariota left Week 4 with his strained MCL, Athan Kaliakmanis relieved him to a Cooper Rush-esque 15 of 33 passing. That's good for dead last in completion percentage (45.5%) among all players who have attempted more than a single pass this season. Keep that in mind when you see Stefon Diggs' target share of 21.6% or Antonio Williams' of 24.3%.

TreVeyon Henderson: The Honeymoon Is Over

Since Week 2, when TreVeyon Henderson returned from preseason injury, he ran 11 routes to Rhamondre Stevenson's 10; Stevenson has run 40 routes to Henderson's 22. Also, Henderson out-carried Stevenson 16 to six in Week 2. Since then, Henderson has only out-carried Stevenson by one in each of Weeks 3 and 4.

Dalton Kincaid: A Sudden Change of Plans

In Weeks 1-3, TE Dalton Kincaid ran routes on 67.3% of Josh Allen's dropbacks (68 routes on 101 dropbacks), with a single-game low of 64.5%. In Week 4, that number fell to 48.6%.

In each of the two games that D.J. Moore left the game due to his injured shoulder (Weeks 2 and 4), Keon Coleman has caught exactly six passes (on 6 and 7 targets, respectively).

Geno Smith: Blink and You'll Miss It

29 combined passing and rushing attempts for the Jets. That's all they got in Week 4. A 26.7% target share for Garrett Wilson sounds great. Until you realize it's on 15 Geno Smith passing attempts. Braelon Allen had a dominating 55.2% opportunity share, by far the most on the Jets. Which amounted to 16 total opportunities.

the Bears had more first downs than the Jets had plays in a professional football game

— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal.bsky.social) October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM

Tyson Bagent: Secret Bagent Man

It took Tyson Bagent, many folks' literal third choice, for the Chicago passing game to "make sense," or at least make sense as we saw it in the preseason. Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden finally led the Bears in targets with nine, six, and five, respectively, and no other player had more than two. 

Trevor Lawrence: The Numbers Are Concerning

Among QBs who have played in all four games, Trevor Lawrence is dead last in dropbacks with 115 for an average of 28.75 per game. Since dropbacks include things like scrambles, Lawrence's passing attempts are even lower, at 104 for an average of 26 per game.

Bonus tidbit: I wanted to look at the last time a non-running QB (<20% of fantasy points came from rushing) with 26 or fewer attempts/game finished as a top-6 or top-12 fantasy QB. Zero times going back to 2020. So I went back to 2010. Two top-12 instances. Ryan Tannehill with a top-12 finish in 2019, and Nick Foles with a top-6 finish in 2013. 

Dohnte Meyers: Put Me In Coach

Prior to Ja'Marr Chase leaving with a concussion at 12:11 left in the 2nd quarter, Dohnte Meyers had played nine of 17 offensive snaps. After that point, Meyers played 100% of the offensive snaps, 59 of 59. He even led the team in number of routes run with 54, and was third in targets with nine.

Michael Wilson: HIMothy

Over the past two games, Michael Wilson leads the NFL in targets earned with 30. Not his team, not WRs - the whole NFL across every position.

The Arizona Cardinals play the Detroit Lions in Week 5.

Cam Skattebo: Running Into a Brick Wall

TE Isaiah Likely has either led (Week 2, Week 4) or been one off the team lead (Week 1, Week 3) in targets. On the season, Likely leads second place (Malik Nabers) by nine targets, 35 to 26.

RB Cam Skattebo is averaging 19 opportunities (carries + targets) per game, and turning those into 75.5 yards per game, ranking 32nd among RBs in yards per opportunity. 

Kyren Williams: The Workload Industrial Complex

In Weeks 1 and 2, Kyren Williams touched the ball 28 times, which was 23rd in the NFL. In Weeks 3 and 4, he touched the ball 47 times, good for third in the entire NFL behind only Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson over that time frame.

In two games without Puka Nacua, Davante Adams averaged 11.5 targets per game. In two games with Nacua, Adams averaged 7.5 targets per game.

Kyren Williams had a career-high 10 receptions this afternoon. He has 47 touches over the past two weeks after that number was 28 for Weeks 1 and 2

— Patrick Daugherty (@rotopat.bsky.social) October 4, 2026 at 5:23 PM

Darius Cooper: Surprise, Motherf*cker

Just like everyone saw coming, the big target earner for Philadelphia with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert out was…wait a minute, Darius Cooper? 

Cooper led the Eagles with seven targets, and earned the only three targets in the end zone. Cooper also led the team with 105 air yards across his seven targets.

Tucker Kraft: A Krafty Little Development

After earning nine total targets across Weeks 1 and 2, Tucker Kraft has earned 15 targets over Weeks 3 and 4. Across Weeks 1-3, Kraft averaged a 13.7% target share. In Week 4, Kraft earned a 23.3% target share.

Bonus tidbit: In Green Bay's two losses, Jordan Love has averaged 47.5 passing attempts. In Green Bay's two wins, he's averaged 29.5.

Tampa Bay: We Are Done Here Until Morale Improves

No Tampa Bay pass-catcher exceeded 28 air yards in rookie Undrafted Free Agent Jalon Daniels' first start. TE Cade Otton led all pass-catchers in receiving yards with 37.

Unless something dramatic happens before Baker Mayfield returns, and potentially not even then, we may not talk about Tampa Bay again. There is no joy in this Mudville.

Carnell Tate: Stealth Mode: Disabled

Carnell Tate has been on the quietest tear of any WR in the NFL.

Tate's lowest team share of air yards in the first four weeks was Week 1, when he had "only" 40.9%. Over the course of the first four weeks, he's averaged 52.4% and topped out in Week 4 with a whopping 73.1%.

Tate has also earned a 20%-plus target share every single week. The only time he didn't lead the team in targets was Week 3, when Wan'Dale Robinson led the team with a 31.4% target share, while Tate had a 25.7% share himself. Again, topping out in Week 4, Tate logged a Jaxon Smith-Njigba-ian 42.9% target share.


Zay Flowers: Terms and Conditions Apply

In 2025, we saw Lamar Jackson start 4 games in relatively good health, and 4 essentially full games of Tyler Huntley. 

In the Huntley games, Zay Flowers averaged 0.9 air yards per target less, 4.7 yards per reception less, and 3.3 yards per target less, although his target share did rise from 28.6% to 33.0%. His target share was also more consistent, with a standard deviation of 16.6% in Jackson's games and only 6.7% in Huntley's games. In other words, the highs were higher, and the lows were lower in Jackson's games. 

Javonte Williams: Location, Location, Location

Javonte Williams has only averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in a single game, Week 3 vs. Baltimore. On the season, he's averaging 3.73 yards per carry. He's also earned at least three targets in every game, averaging 4.25 per game along with 19 receiving yards per game. Just in case you believe the six-TD-in-four-games pace is unsustainable.

C.J. Stroud: We've Seen This Movie Before

For the second time in four games, C.J. Stroud has thrown for over 300 yards. In 2025, he threw for over 300 yards once. In 2024, he achieved the feat twice, and in his 2023 rookie season, he eclipsed the mark six times.

Miami Dolphins: Going Nowhere Fast

In 2025, Miami was last in the NFL in snaps per game, running 57.7 per game while the league average was 64.2. Through four games in 2026, Miami is averaging 56.8 plays per game, still dead last, though it's tied for last so far with Tennessee. 

T.J. Hockenson: Kyler Murray's Emotional Support Tight End

In Week 4, TE T.J. Hockenson tripled his season average in targets, going from 4.33 targets/game to 13 targets in Week 4 with Justin Jefferson out. He also earned the only three red zone targets of anyone on the team.

Travis Kelce: Hello? Is This Thing On?

In a 30-27 boat race with the Las Vegas Raiders, Travis Kelce could only earn four targets; one more than TE Noah Gray. This is even after WR Rashee Rice left midway through the 1st quarter with a hamstring injury. As a result, WR Tyquan Thornton led Kansas City in targets with eight, before leaving the game on their final (non-kneel-down) drive.

Michael Mayer: Two Tight Ends Are Better Than One

In two games without fellow TE Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer averaged 4.03 air yards per target and five fantasy points per game. In two games with fellow TE Brock Bowers in the lineup, Mayer has averaged 6.21 air yards per target and 11.45 fantasy points per game.

R.J. Harvey: Position: Receiver

In his two games back from injury, RB R.J. Harvey has tied for the lead or led Denver outright in targets earned, with seven in Week 3 and 10 in Week 4. Even with his fourth-place finish in Week 1 (4 targets), Harvey is averaging seven targets/game. Only Jaylen Waddle has so much as a single game (Week 2 with 10 targets) with more targets than Harvey is averaging, and that was the game that Harvey missed.

Christian McCaffrey: Same Same, But Different

In 17 games in 2025, Christian McCaffrey averaged 18.3 rushing attempts per game at 3.9 yards per carry and 7.6 targets per game at 9.1 yards per reception. Through 4 games in 2026, McCaffrey is averaging 12.5 rushing attempts per game at 4.4 yards per carry and 5.5 targets per game at 7.6 yards per reception.

He averaged one combined rushing-and-receiving TD game in 2025, and he's on the same pace in 2026.

Chargers RB Room: Civil War

RB Kimani Vidal has seen his playing time increase every game, from 7.9% in Week 1 to 36.8% in Week 4 when he earned eight total opportunities (carries + targets). For the second straight week, Omarion Hampton saw his own snap share fall, from the Week 2 high of 64.5% down to 32.4% in Week 4, and saw his lowest number of opportunities of the season with 11. Keaton Mitchell led all LAC RBs in playing time (38.2%) and opportunities (16) in Week 4.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: My Steak Is Too Juicy

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had his lowest target share of the season in Week 4 with 27.3%. That rate would still rank fifth in the entire NFL for the young season.

Sam LaPorta: Living LaPorta Loca

TE Sam LaPorta is now second in earned targets on the Lions for the season, just ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams. He's averaging eight targets per game. Detroit plays Arizona in Week 5, which has the third-worst defense at limiting TE fantasy points.

Bryce Young: Here Comes the Fun Police

Through four weeks, Bryce Young leads the entire NFL in passing yards per game at 317. For the rest of the season, Carolina plays five teams that rank top 10 in limiting passing yards per game in their remaining 13 games, including Tampa Bay twice (9th).

Michael Penix: No Points for You

Since Michael Penix's return in Week 3, the Atlanta Falcons have scored 35 and 45 points to lead the NFL over that span. Despite this, Penix has yet to crack the top 20 in QB scoring in either week, with a best finish of QB22.

Bonus tidbit: The Falcons were dead last in points scored over Weeks 1 and 2 at 8 points per game. They're now 15th.

Chris Olave: Olave the Attention

Chris Olave leads the NFL in targets (48), air yards (648), and is still tied for second in targets under 2.5 seconds from the snap (24). He's also second in receptions (35) and receiving yards (491) in the NFL, to only CeeDee Lamb (37 and 498, respectively).

#Saints  WR Chris Olave has eight receptions of 20 yards or more. That's the most in the league.

Olave is also second in the NFL in receptions (35) and receiving yards (491).

He trails Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb in both categories.

— Rod Walker (@rodwalkernola.bsky.social) October 6, 2026 at 5:04 PM

FIN:

Image of Well, that's all, folks!

Lou Brunson serves as a Senior Analyst and designer of the Two Rivers, GUTS, and Injury Response Protocol projection systems used across Optimus Fantasy.

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