Welcome to the NFC North version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Detroit Lions. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Detroit Lions in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-3.52
4th Down Go For It!	32.71 +
Target GINI	0.6468 +
Rushing GINI	0.7729
Plays/Game: Offense	65.9 +

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Jared Goff	QB6
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB1
David Montgomery	RB18
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR3
Jameson Williams	WR19
Tim Patrick	WR85
Sam LaPorta	TE7
Jake Bates	K8

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Both coordinators

Added: Isaac TeSlaa

Detroit managed to have zero turnover at any fantasy-relevant positions, which is a tall task. We mostly know what this offense is at this point, although they did add the dynamic-but-raw Isaac TeSlaa in the 3rd round of the draft.

They lost two stalwarts in the interior and now have to replace them. If cracks start to show in Detroit’s offensive unit, this will be the main cause. The good news, however, is that both OTs remain, and they’re as good a pair as there is in the entire NFL.

What happens when you lose your offensive coordinator, your defensive coordinator, and your WR coach all in the same offseason? Well, we’re gonna find out. We haven’t seen a “Is it the players or the coaches that matter more?” situation like this since the Brady/Belichick split. The suspense is terrible! I can’t wait to see what happens next.

Looking Ahead to the Detroit Lions in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Jared Goff	4
Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery	5
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick	4
Sam LaPorta	4
Jake Bates	4

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Jared Goff	QB18
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB6
David Montgomery	RB16
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR5
Jameson Williams	WR39
Tim Patrick	WR101
Sam LaPorta	TE5
Jake Bates	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Green Bay	W
2	Chicago	W
3	@ Baltimore	L
4	Cleveland	W
5	@ Cincinnati	W
6	@ Kansas City	W
7	Tampa Bay	L
8	BYE	–
9	Minnesota	W
10	@ Washington	L
11	@ Philadelphia	W
12	New York Giants	W
13	Green Bay	W
14	Dallas	W
15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L
16	Pittsburgh	W
17	@ Minnesota	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 11-5

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Lions

“Lou, you didn’t rank Jake Bates!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Jake Bates plays for a great offense, has a strong leg, and plays in a dome. But his coach likes to go for it a LOT on 4th downs. 

Losing both coordinators from a single team isn’t something that happens often for good teams like Detroit. Usually, poor performance is what leads to a team firing its entire coaching staff. It’s a credit to the culture Dan Campbell has built and how he’s changed it since his arrival. Ben Johnson is clearly the loss that we care most about as fantasy players, though.

The good news is that literally all of the fantasy-relevant players are still there, so we shouldn’t expect too much change. We’ve seen this offense work, and work well, for two years now.

I don’t want to minimize Johnson’s impact, but it’s not like nobody in the building was unaware of what Johnson was doing, either. Playcalling will obviously change a bit, and Detroit will feel the lack of Johnson’s superb touch in the moment. However, the players on the field are good enough to make a lot of play calling work correctly.

It probably looks like I’m a bit down on some players relative to last year, and I suppose I am a bit. Take Jahmyr Gibbs, for example. Yes, he finished as RB1. However, he only truly took over once an injury sidelined David Montgomery for the final 2.5 games of the regular season. Jared Goff finished as QB6; however, I have him ranked as QB18, quite the precipitous drop.

Words cannot do justice to how many players Detroit lost on defense to massive injuries in 2024, and the offense had to score a lot more to compensate. With a fresh year and no injuries, fingers crossed, the Lions shouldn’t need to put up 40+ points/week to have a chance at winning. That lack of pressure alone can limit fantasy performances a bit.

Another layer of this is the offensive line, which I touched on earlier. All-World center Frank Ragnow retired, and the Lions are turning to unproven rookie Tate Ratledge. Growing pains at that position are inevitable. Guard Kevin Zeitler left for a huge payday in Tennessee, and inexperienced Christian Mahogany will try to replace him. It’s not a death knell, but it’s enough to be a tiebreaker when it comes to ranking players.

If There is a League Winner In Detroit, It’s…

Not happening.

“Whoa, Lou, what the heck, man? There are great players all over this roster!” You are so right, and I deserve every bit of your shock and outrage at my statement. As Indigo Montoya said in The Princess Bride, “Let me explain. No, it’s too much. Allow me to sum up.”

The Detroit Lions’ offensive skill positions are all good. They’re really good. Duh, of course, everyone knows that. The problem is, everyone drafts like it, too. There really aren’t any players who are flying under the radar, even by just a couple of rounds.

In addition, thanks to how settled Detroit’s roster is, there really aren’t any players waiting in the wings to suddenly pop off. Maybe Isaac TeSlaa is the closest, but do you really care about the WR5 in an offense, even one as prolific as Detroit’s? Should you care? In a bestball league, sure. But in any sort of managed league, TeSlaa should stay on the showroom floor.

Deep League Draft Target

At least if you want to take a shot on Isaac TeSlaa, he’s not expensive. He’s a limited route runner, but he’s got the size, speed, and hands to have random spike weeks for a high-powered Lions offense. He likely won’t see the field much unless there is a rash of injuries, but this is the NFL, and that’s bound to happen at some point.

With an ADP of 276 according to FantasyPros, it means you can get him with the final pick of the 22nd round in 12-team leagues. Or you can just monitor the waiver wire, which is probably where he belongs until he shows he’s getting some consistent playing time.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.