by Dave Stewart
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Each year, fantasy football leagues are won by savvy managers able to cull significant value from their drafts while opposing managers swing and miss. As we embark on draft season for most fantasy football leagues, we are equipping you with the knowledge to be that shrewd dude or cagey lady so you can baffle your league mates. Sifting through the running back average draft position (ADP), I was able to unearth some RB values for you to target in drafts.
Early ADP RB Values | Fantasy Football
ADP referenced using 4for4’s Consensus ADP Tracker
James Conner (RB – ARI) | ADP 77, RB23
James Conner is coming off his best season ever. He finished sixth in rushing yards (1,040) in 2023 despite missing four games due to injury. Additionally, his 16 rush attempts per game were good for seventh in the league last season.
Granted, part of what aided his case a year ago is the fact that the Arizona Cardinals were one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL, ranking with the 12th-most rushing attempts per game (27.7). Still, Conner’s dominance in the red zone (55.2% of the team’s red zone carries, 12th-highest among RBs in 2023) goes to show you how much of a monster he is even at age 29.
Even with rookie Trey Benson in the fold, Conner should continue to shoulder the heavy load on the ground in Arizona for a good portion of the season at a minimum.
Currently, according to 4for4’s multi-site ADP, Conner is being drafted as RB23 (77th overall). He has finished as a top-20 RB in points per reception (PPR) and scored four times in his career, including every season he’s spent in Arizona. Do not overthink it or Conner’s RB value. Get your guy.
Zack Moss (RB – CIN) | ADP 86 | RB29
Zack Moss is another player who just had his best season to date. In his first season in Indianapolis, Moss totaled 986 yards from scrimmage and scored seven touchdowns. He averaged 12.1 points per game (PPG) in PPR scoring. Now, he heads to Cincinnati to fill a void left by Joe Mixon‘s departure. His main competition in the backfield will be Chase Brown. Moss has shown to be a more efficient ball carrier than Brown and should be in line for a larger share of carries.
Moss is being selected as RB29 (86th overall) thus far. As the primary early-down rusher for one of the league’s top offenses, his chance to return value on that investment remains high. He is worth the risk in the eighth round or later.
Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN) | ADP 101 | RB33
Tyjae Spears had a productive rookie season playing behind one of the league’s top backs, Derrick Henry. Spears carried the ball 100 times and was efficient, averaging 4.5 yards per carry (YPC). He also showcased his talent in the passing game, racking up 52 receptions on 70 targets. Henry left for Baltimore, and Tennessee brought Tony Pollard in as a free agent.
Spears and Pollard will share backfield duties, but Spears has some rapport with starting QB, Will Levis. The familiarity could give Spears an advantage in passing work. Spears posted a meager touchdown rate, with just three total touchdowns on 152 touches. He is likely to see the end zone a little more this season. Spears has a good chance to outperform his ADP of RB33 (101 overall).
Devin Singletary (RB – NYG) | ADP 105 | RB35
Devin Singletary hit a career-high in rushing yards in his lone season in Houston. Like Moss, he has a new team and big shoes to fill. With Saquon Barkley leaving for Philadelphia, Singletary slots in as the starting running back for the New York Giants. The Giants were the 10th run-heaviest offense in the NFL in 2023, and Singletary’s backfield competition is scarce in second-year man Eric Gray and fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Presently, Singletary is being chosen as RB35 (105th overall) despite the opportunity in New York. He has yet to finish lower than RB35 in his five-year career. Though not a jaw-dropping pick, Singletary is a safe bet to finish ahead of his ADP.
Takeaways
Each of the four players presents potential value as each is being drafted below their likely finishing positions. They all have significant upsides depending on the work distribution and will clearly have a meaningful role in their offense. While ADP is expected to change, you can draft these players with confidence that they will help your fantasy team this season.
For more from Dave Stewart, you can find him on X (formerly Twitter) @Davefantasy or right here on Optimus Fantasy.
by Dave Stewart
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Each year, fantasy football leagues are won by savvy managers able to cull significant value from their drafts while opposing managers swing and miss. As we embark on draft season for most fantasy football leagues, we are equipping you with the knowledge to be that shrewd dude or cagey lady so you can baffle your league mates. Sifting through the running back average draft position (ADP), I was able to unearth some RB values for you to target in drafts.
Early ADP RB Values | Fantasy Football
ADP referenced using 4for4’s Consensus ADP Tracker
James Conner (RB – ARI) | ADP 77, RB23
James Conner is coming off his best season ever. He finished sixth in rushing yards (1,040) in 2023 despite missing four games due to injury. Additionally, his 16 rush attempts per game were good for seventh in the league last season.
Granted, part of what aided his case a year ago is the fact that the Arizona Cardinals were one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL, ranking with the 12th-most rushing attempts per game (27.7). Still, Conner’s dominance in the red zone (55.2% of the team’s red zone carries, 12th-highest among RBs in 2023) goes to show you how much of a monster he is even at age 29.
Even with rookie Trey Benson in the fold, Conner should continue to shoulder the heavy load on the ground in Arizona for a good portion of the season at a minimum.
Currently, according to 4for4’s multi-site ADP, Conner is being drafted as RB23 (77th overall). He has finished as a top-20 RB in points per reception (PPR) and scored four times in his career, including every season he’s spent in Arizona. Do not overthink it or Conner’s RB value. Get your guy.
Zack Moss (RB – CIN) | ADP 86 | RB29
Zack Moss is another player who just had his best season to date. In his first season in Indianapolis, Moss totaled 986 yards from scrimmage and scored seven touchdowns. He averaged 12.1 points per game (PPG) in PPR scoring. Now, he heads to Cincinnati to fill a void left by Joe Mixon‘s departure. His main competition in the backfield will be Chase Brown. Moss has shown to be a more efficient ball carrier than Brown and should be in line for a larger share of carries.
Moss is being selected as RB29 (86th overall) thus far. As the primary early-down rusher for one of the league’s top offenses, his chance to return value on that investment remains high. He is worth the risk in the eighth round or later.
Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN) | ADP 101 | RB33
Tyjae Spears had a productive rookie season playing behind one of the league’s top backs, Derrick Henry. Spears carried the ball 100 times and was efficient, averaging 4.5 yards per carry (YPC). He also showcased his talent in the passing game, racking up 52 receptions on 70 targets. Henry left for Baltimore, and Tennessee brought Tony Pollard in as a free agent.
Spears and Pollard will share backfield duties, but Spears has some rapport with starting QB, Will Levis. The familiarity could give Spears an advantage in passing work. Spears posted a meager touchdown rate, with just three total touchdowns on 152 touches. He is likely to see the end zone a little more this season. Spears has a good chance to outperform his ADP of RB33 (101 overall).
Devin Singletary (RB – NYG) | ADP 105 | RB35
Devin Singletary hit a career-high in rushing yards in his lone season in Houston. Like Moss, he has a new team and big shoes to fill. With Saquon Barkley leaving for Philadelphia, Singletary slots in as the starting running back for the New York Giants. The Giants were the 10th run-heaviest offense in the NFL in 2023, and Singletary’s backfield competition is scarce in second-year man Eric Gray and fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Presently, Singletary is being chosen as RB35 (105th overall) despite the opportunity in New York. He has yet to finish lower than RB35 in his five-year career. Though not a jaw-dropping pick, Singletary is a safe bet to finish ahead of his ADP.
Takeaways
Each of the four players presents potential value as each is being drafted below their likely finishing positions. They all have significant upsides depending on the work distribution and will clearly have a meaningful role in their offense. While ADP is expected to change, you can draft these players with confidence that they will help your fantasy team this season.
For more from Dave Stewart, you can find him on X (formerly Twitter) @Davefantasy or right here on Optimus Fantasy.
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[…] Dave Stewart outlines Early RB ADP Values […]