One of the oldest tropes in fantasy football is the third-year breakout wide receiver. We’ve been incredibly spoiled through the beginning part of this decade with immediate wide receiver stars like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, and others.

We can’t expect every receiver to pay immediate dividends for their real-life NFL teams, and certainly not for fantasy managers. For every Jefferson, there’s a Davante Adams. When a Nabers-type receiver prospect comes along, there’s a Tyler Lockett that takes a handful of seasons to get going.

The receivers profiled here have shown glimpses of tantalizing production but haven’t put the entire package together for reasons that may not be entirely their fault. Let’s take a look at a few wide receivers heading into their third season that could put everything together and provide massive value for fantasy managers in 2025.

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WR Breakout Candidates: Third-Year Leap Players to Target

Rashee Rice (WR – KC)

For 2025, there’s a lot to unpack with Rashee Rice, both from an injury standpoint and his standing off the field. However, there’s no denying that Rice was a massive difference-maker for the Chiefs in the early part of 2024. It’s clear that the Chiefs missed Rice’s ability to move the chains and rack up receptions, as the team had to eat their vegetables and acquire DeAndre Hopkins to try and (unsuccessfully) fill that receiving void. I mean, you had to do something if your only recourse was playing JuJu Smith-Schuster on purpose, right?

In Rice’s three full games last season, he averaged 9.6 targets, 8.0 receptions, and 96 receiving yards per game, as well as scoring touchdowns in two of his three games. It’s likely Rice would have continued his ascent and been a clear step up in 2024 from his promising rookie campaign. Fantasy managers who drafted Rice were robbed of that thanks to a fluke knee injury on an interception return.

We’re talking a 3.16 yards per route run (YPRR) in a very limited 91-route sample size, plus a 32% targets per route run (TPRR); those are ELITE numbers no matter how you slice it. If Rice plays a full season in 2024, we wouldn’t have to hear about the demise of the Chiefs’ offense, because Rice was likely to spearhead its renaissance.

Nobody has any idea if Rice will be suspended or for how long related to his involvement in a high-speed car crash in March 2024. Also up in the air is Rice’s season-ending knee injury, which ended his 2024 season, and whether he will be available for Week 1 if not suspended. That said, when he does play, Rice will be one of the best target-earning wide receivers in fantasy, and if we’re talking about third-year leaps, Rice is the poster child of that if given a full season of games. The kind of upside Rice has is where you will need to draft him in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts in 2026.

Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)

There might not be a more polarizing player to try and evaluate than Marvin Mims Jr., because there are so many push-pull elements to describe what he’s done and what is likely to happen going forward. But damn it, we’re going to try.

It’s not exactly a state secret that when Mims gets on the field, good things happen. It’s just that, well, he doesn’t get on the field. For context, the average number of total pass routes a top-20 fantasy wide receiver ran in 2024 was 559 routes. That’s on average, 85% of their respective team’s dropbacks. Mims was at 196 total routes — 11.5 per game — and 30.2% of routes per dropback in 2024. That will not get it done. Under ANY circumstances.

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On a per-game basis, Mims did not run more than 50 percent routes per dropback in ANY game last season. He did that just six times in 14 games in 2023 while maintaining his role as a gadget-type, situational wide receiver.

So why is Mims here in this article?

Well, on the off chance that Mims DOES earn more routes in this ascending Broncos’ offense, we want to have him on our teams. One big, bright sign of a breakout is efficiency shown in small sample sizes. Doing that consistently in small sample sizes usually leads to more work and utilization. Mims seems to be on that trajectory, and the depth chart suggests the Broncos will give Mims more opportunities going forward, with Evan Engram signed to profile in the slot and Mims playing more on the outside.

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

As a second-round pick by the Packers in 2023, Reed has been pigeon-holed as a slot receiver for the Packers, with 76% of his snaps coming in the slot in both seasons. He’s been very solid in his opportunities over the last two seasons with a 2.05 and 2.20 YPRR. That said, last season’s marks were a bit skewed due to the fact that the Packers were in the bottom three in pass rate over expected last season, along with the Eagles and Colts.

The Packers’ offense in the second half of the 2024 season was basically Josh Jacobs running the ball, scoring touchdowns, and it was anybody’s guess who would get targeted. After the Packers’ Week 10 bye, Reed averaged 3.5 targets, 2.4 receptions, and 29.6 receiving yards per game. Not only that, but Reed only saw one game of eight with 80% or more routes per dropback. It wasn’t just a Reed thing either — it was very tough being a Packers’ pass-catcher in fantasy if you didn’t score a touchdown.

What we’re hoping from Reed is what we were talking about with Mims — more utilization across the board, not just in the slot. Reed has played on the outside back since his time at Michigan State, as well as 21% of his snaps last season, and while he put up a 1.59 YPRR out wide last season, it’s not like he’s a liability.

Among WRs with at least 50 targets in 2024, Jayden Reed led the entire NFL in passer rating when targeted (137.5).

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The Packers’ entire receiving corps is just a bunch of guys right now without somebody to drive the ship, and Reed has the leg up in terms of draft capital and likely in talent. Romeo Doubs has proved he’s just a guy, Christian Watson can’t stay on the field, and Dontayvion Wicks has shown flashes but may need some more fine-tuning.

The Packers’ offense is one we want to target for fantasy, and Reed has the highest average draft position (ADP) of all of the pass-catchers at the end of the sixth round in early best ball drafts. Still, he’s a massive value, and when it comes to trying to pinpoint the players we want to target in this offense based on what we’re looking for in fantasy with efficiency, dynamic ability, and YAC ability, Reed is our guy when it comes to third-year breakout candidates.

Kevin Tompkins is a co-owner of Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Kevin on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social and right here on Optimus Fantasy.