Tell your friends (just not your leaguemates until next week)
The GUTS Dynasty Model, Explained Vol. 2: Every Player Has a Curve
by Lou Brunson
Now that I’ve defined Tiers and Eras, you’re ready for the next building block. If you have no idea what I am talking about, please check out Vol. 1 (click here) before reading on.
Careers have a shape. You know this if you’ve been a football fan for any length of time; of course, you’ve watched it happen a hundred times. A player bursts onto the scene, excels for a few years, starts to drop off, and then ultimately rides off into the sunset. Overall, careers look like a curve. The trick? Not all curves are created equal.
In case you need some examples to envision it a bit better: A running back bursts onto the scene at 23, dominates for two or three years, and by 27, you’re hearing rumblings about the team getting ready to move on, and they draft a new RB. Meanwhile, a wide receiver who didn’t do much his first couple of seasons quietly becomes a top-10 asset at 26 and stays there for years. And somewhere, a quarterback is putting up the best numbers of his career at 30, looking like he’ll never slow down.
You’ve probably even heard of these somewhere before. “Beware of the RB cliff.” “Receivers are the safest dynasty asset because their careers are so long.” “Quarterbacks age the best.” You’ve heard all of it, and you’ve seen enough football to believe it.
Unlike some things, I’m not here to tell you that these are wrong. On the contrary, I’m actually here to put a finer point on it. Because while we can see these with our eyes, it’s by diving into the data that I was able to prove them as truisms, just not necessarily at the points we’re used to. As I demonstrated before, every position has its own curve; when players typically rise, if they’re going to rise, that is, when they peak, when they decline, and how fast. The really cool thing is that those curves are remarkably consistent once you have enough data to see them clearly.
I studied over 8,400 player-seasons across 27 years of NFL data. And the shapes came through very cleanly. Satisfyingly so.
Want more from Optimus Fantasy? Join our Discord!
The Four Curves
Each position follows its own trajectory. The peaks hit at different ages, the primes last for different durations, and the declines arrive at different speeds.
Running Backs: Here for a good time, not a long time
Common wisdom is that the RB cliff is at 30.
Well, that’s not entirely accurate. There’s definitely a cliff there for them, but it’s less like a cliff and more like falling down a set of stairs. Believe it or not, RBs peak around age 24-25, and the decline starts almost immediately after. By the time a running back turns 27 or 28, you know, the age most people start getting nervous, the best years aren’t just behind him. I’m going to hold both of your hands when I say this next part: They’ve been behind him for a while.
The “cliff at 30” idea isn’t wrong in spirit, but it’s watching for the wrong milestone. The meaningful production decline is well underway before a running back ever sees 30. Think of 30 as hitting the landing after you’ve tumbled down the stairs. Yes, the sudden stop hurts the most, but you’ve already taken a beating on the way down.
This is why the dynasty community is so obsessed with young running backs, and why veteran backs lose value so fast. The curve is working against them from a younger age than any other position. Teams have learned this, too. That’s why we see so many NFL teams trying to extend RB careers (committees) or replace them sooner. In fact, we’ve seen a rapid rise in RBs being phased out earlier in Eras 3 and 4 than in Eras 1 and 2.
Wide Receivers: The long con?
The general idea is that WRs are safe until 30.
Well, mostly. But it really depends on what tier of receiver you’re talking about. The good news is that WRs have the broadest prime window of the skill positions. They typically start producing meaningful fantasy numbers around 23-24, hit their peak somewhere in the 25-28 range, and hold that production level longer than running backs by a significant margin.
The interesting foible? The best receivers actually peak later than the rest. Franchise-caliber wideouts tend to hit their highest production around age 27, a full year or two later than Good-tier receivers. So a 28-year-old receiver isn’t necessarily approaching the cliff, but whether he is depends on whether he’s been a Franchise/Elite producer or a Good one. The blanket “WRs are safe until 30” misses that distinction.
Quarterbacks: The slow burn
The general idea is that QBs play forever. Heck, some QBs hang around for far too long.
The good news is they definitely age the best of any position; however, they don’t play forever. QBs peak around 28-30, and their decline is the most gradual. So it’s less like tumbling down the stairs and more like a soft descent into madness. Wait, no, how did that get in there….
If you think about it, it makes sense, right? Quarterbacking is the most mental position in football. No, I didn’t just call your favorite player dumb, I promise. But at the QB position processing speed, pre-snap reads, and pocket awareness can compensate for a lot of athletic decline.
That said, “gradual” isn’t “nonexistent.” The descent is real. It can be tempting to underestimate it when we compare it to the running-back cliff. Next to that, anything looks stable. Blinks in Aaron Rodgers. Well, almost anything. But a 34-year-old quarterback is generally producing meaningfully less than he was at 29. It just doesn’t feel dramatic because it happens slowly, one small step at a time.
For dynasty purposes, quarterback is the position where age scares you the least. A 30-year-old QB isn’t entering his decline. Heck, he might still be approaching his peak. But treating a 33-year-old the same as a 28-year-old because “quarterbacks last” is giving the position more credit than the data supports.
Tight Ends: The happy medium
I feel like I hear this every offseason, as dynasty analysts try to hold on to hope for one more year: “TEs take three years to develop.”
The positive spin is that there’s something to it. TEs typically peak in the 26-28 range, which is later than running backs and roughly in line with wide receivers. So the three-year rule is pretty OK if we’re counting peak, but less so for a breakout. But breakouts are another article. After the peak, the tight end decline is moderate. It’s not as gradual as quarterbacks, not as steep as running backs.
You’ve probably felt this if you’ve played fantasy for any length of time, but tight end is uniquely top-heavy in fantasy. The gap between the TE1 and the TE12 is enormous compared to the same range at other positions. There’s a big upper class, almost no middle class, and then…everyone else.
That means even the moderate curve that TEs enjoy bites hardest for the TEs in the middle and below. No gentle landing for them. An Average-tier TE who starts declining doesn’t slide into “still useful but less exciting.” He goes from barely startable to replaceable, because the position doesn’t really have an in-between. The elite TEs, on the other hand, are actually among the stickiest assets in dynasty, but that’s a story for another article.
Why the Curve Matters More Than the Stat Sheet
Here’s where this gets practical.
You’re probably familiar with the concept that people typically want to pay more for youth in dynasty, and this is why. When you’re evaluating a dynasty trade, you’re not just evaluating the player right now. You’re evaluating where he sits on his curve. A player producing 15 PPG at age 24 and a player producing 15 PPG at age 29 are very much not the same, even if they look like they are. But they’re in completely different places on their trajectory.
The 24-year-old is on the way up. The curve says he’s got years of prime production ahead of him. His current production might be his floor, not his ceiling.
The 29-year-old, depending on the position, might be at the top or just past it. His current production might be as good as it gets. And the descent could be gradual or steep, depending on whether he’s a quarterback or a running back.
Same production. Very different futures. And the curve is what helps to tell them apart.
This is one of the core ideas behind the GUTS dynasty engine. Well, at its core, it’s behind every dynasty valuation system. But for us, every player’s projection starts with where they sit on their position’s curve. This is a specific, data-backed trajectory built from 27 years of NFL careers across all four eras, and confirmed by the most recent eras of modern football.
The Hidden Nuance
There’s one more layer to this that people can miss entirely, and it changes everything about how these curves work. It’s not just about position. It’s about caliber.
A Franchise receiver doesn’t follow the same curve as a Good receiver. A top-5-all-time running back doesn’t age the same way as a solid starter. The shapes are similar, but the timing is different. From when they peak, to how long they hold it, and how fast they decline.
There’s also a difference between those who truly walked among the elites and those who just vacationed there. There’s a considerable subset of players in our dataset who looked like Franchise talent based on a single season. The catch? They followed a completely different curve from those who sustained it. And telling them apart, Dear Reader, is the difference between investing in gold or being stuck with fool’s gold.
Luckily for you, that distinction between peak production and sustained production is where we’re going next. Because the curve exists for every player. The question is which curve they’re actually on.
Lou Brunson serves as a Senior Analyst and designer of the projection systems used across Optimus Fantasy. His dynasty insights can be found here and at draftbuddy.com.
Now that I’ve defined Tiers and Eras, you’re ready for the next building block. If you have no idea what I am talking about, please check out Vol. 1 (click here) before reading on.
Careers have a shape. You know this if you’ve been a football fan for any length of time; of course, you’ve watched it happen a hundred times. A player bursts onto the scene, excels for a few years, starts to drop off, and then ultimately rides off into the sunset. Overall, careers look like a curve. The trick? Not all curves are created equal.
In case you need some examples to envision it a bit better: A running back bursts onto the scene at 23, dominates for two or three years, and by 27, you’re hearing rumblings about the team getting ready to move on, and they draft a new RB. Meanwhile, a wide receiver who didn’t do much his first couple of seasons quietly becomes a top-10 asset at 26 and stays there for years. And somewhere, a quarterback is putting up the best numbers of his career at 30, looking like he’ll never slow down.
You’ve probably even heard of these somewhere before. “Beware of the RB cliff.” “Receivers are the safest dynasty asset because their careers are so long.” “Quarterbacks age the best.” You’ve heard all of it, and you’ve seen enough football to believe it.
Unlike some things, I’m not here to tell you that these are wrong. On the contrary, I’m actually here to put a finer point on it. Because while we can see these with our eyes, it’s by diving into the data that I was able to prove them as truisms, just not necessarily at the points we’re used to. As I demonstrated before, every position has its own curve; when players typically rise, if they’re going to rise, that is, when they peak, when they decline, and how fast. The really cool thing is that those curves are remarkably consistent once you have enough data to see them clearly.
I studied over 8,400 player-seasons across 27 years of NFL data. And the shapes came through very cleanly. Satisfyingly so.
Want more from Optimus Fantasy? Join our Discord!
The Four Curves
Each position follows its own trajectory. The peaks hit at different ages, the primes last for different durations, and the declines arrive at different speeds.
Running Backs: Here for a good time, not a long time
Common wisdom is that the RB cliff is at 30.
Well, that’s not entirely accurate. There’s definitely a cliff there for them, but it’s less like a cliff and more like falling down a set of stairs. Believe it or not, RBs peak around age 24-25, and the decline starts almost immediately after. By the time a running back turns 27 or 28, you know, the age most people start getting nervous, the best years aren’t just behind him. I’m going to hold both of your hands when I say this next part: They’ve been behind him for a while.
The “cliff at 30” idea isn’t wrong in spirit, but it’s watching for the wrong milestone. The meaningful production decline is well underway before a running back ever sees 30. Think of 30 as hitting the landing after you’ve tumbled down the stairs. Yes, the sudden stop hurts the most, but you’ve already taken a beating on the way down.
This is why the dynasty community is so obsessed with young running backs, and why veteran backs lose value so fast. The curve is working against them from a younger age than any other position. Teams have learned this, too. That’s why we see so many NFL teams trying to extend RB careers (committees) or replace them sooner. In fact, we’ve seen a rapid rise in RBs being phased out earlier in Eras 3 and 4 than in Eras 1 and 2.
Wide Receivers: The long con?
The general idea is that WRs are safe until 30.
Well, mostly. But it really depends on what tier of receiver you’re talking about. The good news is that WRs have the broadest prime window of the skill positions. They typically start producing meaningful fantasy numbers around 23-24, hit their peak somewhere in the 25-28 range, and hold that production level longer than running backs by a significant margin.
The interesting foible? The best receivers actually peak later than the rest. Franchise-caliber wideouts tend to hit their highest production around age 27, a full year or two later than Good-tier receivers. So a 28-year-old receiver isn’t necessarily approaching the cliff, but whether he is depends on whether he’s been a Franchise/Elite producer or a Good one. The blanket “WRs are safe until 30” misses that distinction.
Quarterbacks: The slow burn
The general idea is that QBs play forever. Heck, some QBs hang around for far too long.
The good news is they definitely age the best of any position; however, they don’t play forever. QBs peak around 28-30, and their decline is the most gradual. So it’s less like tumbling down the stairs and more like a soft descent into madness. Wait, no, how did that get in there….
If you think about it, it makes sense, right? Quarterbacking is the most mental position in football. No, I didn’t just call your favorite player dumb, I promise. But at the QB position processing speed, pre-snap reads, and pocket awareness can compensate for a lot of athletic decline.
That said, “gradual” isn’t “nonexistent.” The descent is real. It can be tempting to underestimate it when we compare it to the running-back cliff. Next to that, anything looks stable. Blinks in Aaron Rodgers. Well, almost anything. But a 34-year-old quarterback is generally producing meaningfully less than he was at 29. It just doesn’t feel dramatic because it happens slowly, one small step at a time.
For dynasty purposes, quarterback is the position where age scares you the least. A 30-year-old QB isn’t entering his decline. Heck, he might still be approaching his peak. But treating a 33-year-old the same as a 28-year-old because “quarterbacks last” is giving the position more credit than the data supports.
Tight Ends: The happy medium
I feel like I hear this every offseason, as dynasty analysts try to hold on to hope for one more year: “TEs take three years to develop.”
The positive spin is that there’s something to it. TEs typically peak in the 26-28 range, which is later than running backs and roughly in line with wide receivers. So the three-year rule is pretty OK if we’re counting peak, but less so for a breakout. But breakouts are another article. After the peak, the tight end decline is moderate. It’s not as gradual as quarterbacks, not as steep as running backs.
You’ve probably felt this if you’ve played fantasy for any length of time, but tight end is uniquely top-heavy in fantasy. The gap between the TE1 and the TE12 is enormous compared to the same range at other positions. There’s a big upper class, almost no middle class, and then…everyone else.
That means even the moderate curve that TEs enjoy bites hardest for the TEs in the middle and below. No gentle landing for them. An Average-tier TE who starts declining doesn’t slide into “still useful but less exciting.” He goes from barely startable to replaceable, because the position doesn’t really have an in-between. The elite TEs, on the other hand, are actually among the stickiest assets in dynasty, but that’s a story for another article.
Why the Curve Matters More Than the Stat Sheet
Here’s where this gets practical.
You’re probably familiar with the concept that people typically want to pay more for youth in dynasty, and this is why. When you’re evaluating a dynasty trade, you’re not just evaluating the player right now. You’re evaluating where he sits on his curve. A player producing 15 PPG at age 24 and a player producing 15 PPG at age 29 are very much not the same, even if they look like they are. But they’re in completely different places on their trajectory.
The 24-year-old is on the way up. The curve says he’s got years of prime production ahead of him. His current production might be his floor, not his ceiling.
The 29-year-old, depending on the position, might be at the top or just past it. His current production might be as good as it gets. And the descent could be gradual or steep, depending on whether he’s a quarterback or a running back.
Same production. Very different futures. And the curve is what helps to tell them apart.
This is one of the core ideas behind the GUTS dynasty engine. Well, at its core, it’s behind every dynasty valuation system. But for us, every player’s projection starts with where they sit on their position’s curve. This is a specific, data-backed trajectory built from 27 years of NFL careers across all four eras, and confirmed by the most recent eras of modern football.
The Hidden Nuance
There’s one more layer to this that people can miss entirely, and it changes everything about how these curves work. It’s not just about position. It’s about caliber.
A Franchise receiver doesn’t follow the same curve as a Good receiver. A top-5-all-time running back doesn’t age the same way as a solid starter. The shapes are similar, but the timing is different. From when they peak, to how long they hold it, and how fast they decline.
There’s also a difference between those who truly walked among the elites and those who just vacationed there. There’s a considerable subset of players in our dataset who looked like Franchise talent based on a single season. The catch? They followed a completely different curve from those who sustained it. And telling them apart, Dear Reader, is the difference between investing in gold or being stuck with fool’s gold.
Luckily for you, that distinction between peak production and sustained production is where we’re going next. Because the curve exists for every player. The question is which curve they’re actually on.
Lou Brunson serves as a Senior Analyst and designer of the projection systems used across Optimus Fantasy. His dynasty insights can be found here and at draftbuddy.com.
Now that I’ve defined Tiers and Eras, you’re ready for the next building block. If you have no idea what I am talking about, please check out Vol. 1 (click here) before reading on.
Careers have a shape. You know this if you’ve been a football fan for any length of time; of course, you’ve watched it happen a hundred times. A player bursts onto the scene, excels for a few years, starts to drop off, and then ultimately rides off into the sunset. Overall, careers look like a curve. The trick? Not all curves are created equal.
In case you need some examples to envision it a bit better: A running back bursts onto the scene at 23, dominates for two or three years, and by 27, you’re hearing rumblings about the team getting ready to move on, and they draft a new RB. Meanwhile, a wide receiver who didn’t do much his first couple of seasons quietly becomes a top-10 asset at 26 and stays there for years. And somewhere, a quarterback is putting up the best numbers of his career at 30, looking like he’ll never slow down.
You’ve probably even heard of these somewhere before. “Beware of the RB cliff.” “Receivers are the safest dynasty asset because their careers are so long.” “Quarterbacks age the best.” You’ve heard all of it, and you’ve seen enough football to believe it.
Unlike some things, I’m not here to tell you that these are wrong. On the contrary, I’m actually here to put a finer point on it. Because while we can see these with our eyes, it’s by diving into the data that I was able to prove them as truisms, just not necessarily at the points we’re used to. As I demonstrated before, every position has its own curve; when players typically rise, if they’re going to rise, that is, when they peak, when they decline, and how fast. The really cool thing is that those curves are remarkably consistent once you have enough data to see them clearly.
I studied over 8,400 player-seasons across 27 years of NFL data. And the shapes came through very cleanly. Satisfyingly so.
Want more from Optimus Fantasy? Join our Discord!
The Four Curves
Each position follows its own trajectory. The peaks hit at different ages, the primes last for different durations, and the declines arrive at different speeds.
Running Backs: Here for a good time, not a long time
Common wisdom is that the RB cliff is at 30.
Well, that’s not entirely accurate. There’s definitely a cliff there for them, but it’s less like a cliff and more like falling down a set of stairs. Believe it or not, RBs peak around age 24-25, and the decline starts almost immediately after. By the time a running back turns 27 or 28, you know, the age most people start getting nervous, the best years aren’t just behind him. I’m going to hold both of your hands when I say this next part: They’ve been behind him for a while.
The “cliff at 30” idea isn’t wrong in spirit, but it’s watching for the wrong milestone. The meaningful production decline is well underway before a running back ever sees 30. Think of 30 as hitting the landing after you’ve tumbled down the stairs. Yes, the sudden stop hurts the most, but you’ve already taken a beating on the way down.
This is why the dynasty community is so obsessed with young running backs, and why veteran backs lose value so fast. The curve is working against them from a younger age than any other position. Teams have learned this, too. That’s why we see so many NFL teams trying to extend RB careers (committees) or replace them sooner. In fact, we’ve seen a rapid rise in RBs being phased out earlier in Eras 3 and 4 than in Eras 1 and 2.
Wide Receivers: The long con?
The general idea is that WRs are safe until 30.
Well, mostly. But it really depends on what tier of receiver you’re talking about. The good news is that WRs have the broadest prime window of the skill positions. They typically start producing meaningful fantasy numbers around 23-24, hit their peak somewhere in the 25-28 range, and hold that production level longer than running backs by a significant margin.
The interesting foible? The best receivers actually peak later than the rest. Franchise-caliber wideouts tend to hit their highest production around age 27, a full year or two later than Good-tier receivers. So a 28-year-old receiver isn’t necessarily approaching the cliff, but whether he is depends on whether he’s been a Franchise/Elite producer or a Good one. The blanket “WRs are safe until 30” misses that distinction.
Quarterbacks: The slow burn
The general idea is that QBs play forever. Heck, some QBs hang around for far too long.
The good news is they definitely age the best of any position; however, they don’t play forever. QBs peak around 28-30, and their decline is the most gradual. So it’s less like tumbling down the stairs and more like a soft descent into madness. Wait, no, how did that get in there….
If you think about it, it makes sense, right? Quarterbacking is the most mental position in football. No, I didn’t just call your favorite player dumb, I promise. But at the QB position processing speed, pre-snap reads, and pocket awareness can compensate for a lot of athletic decline.
That said, “gradual” isn’t “nonexistent.” The descent is real. It can be tempting to underestimate it when we compare it to the running-back cliff. Next to that, anything looks stable. Blinks in Aaron Rodgers. Well, almost anything. But a 34-year-old quarterback is generally producing meaningfully less than he was at 29. It just doesn’t feel dramatic because it happens slowly, one small step at a time.
For dynasty purposes, quarterback is the position where age scares you the least. A 30-year-old QB isn’t entering his decline. Heck, he might still be approaching his peak. But treating a 33-year-old the same as a 28-year-old because “quarterbacks last” is giving the position more credit than the data supports.
Tight Ends: The happy medium
I feel like I hear this every offseason, as dynasty analysts try to hold on to hope for one more year: “TEs take three years to develop.”
The positive spin is that there’s something to it. TEs typically peak in the 26-28 range, which is later than running backs and roughly in line with wide receivers. So the three-year rule is pretty OK if we’re counting peak, but less so for a breakout. But breakouts are another article. After the peak, the tight end decline is moderate. It’s not as gradual as quarterbacks, not as steep as running backs.
You’ve probably felt this if you’ve played fantasy for any length of time, but tight end is uniquely top-heavy in fantasy. The gap between the TE1 and the TE12 is enormous compared to the same range at other positions. There’s a big upper class, almost no middle class, and then…everyone else.
That means even the moderate curve that TEs enjoy bites hardest for the TEs in the middle and below. No gentle landing for them. An Average-tier TE who starts declining doesn’t slide into “still useful but less exciting.” He goes from barely startable to replaceable, because the position doesn’t really have an in-between. The elite TEs, on the other hand, are actually among the stickiest assets in dynasty, but that’s a story for another article.
Why the Curve Matters More Than the Stat Sheet
Here’s where this gets practical.
You’re probably familiar with the concept that people typically want to pay more for youth in dynasty, and this is why. When you’re evaluating a dynasty trade, you’re not just evaluating the player right now. You’re evaluating where he sits on his curve. A player producing 15 PPG at age 24 and a player producing 15 PPG at age 29 are very much not the same, even if they look like they are. But they’re in completely different places on their trajectory.
The 24-year-old is on the way up. The curve says he’s got years of prime production ahead of him. His current production might be his floor, not his ceiling.
The 29-year-old, depending on the position, might be at the top or just past it. His current production might be as good as it gets. And the descent could be gradual or steep, depending on whether he’s a quarterback or a running back.
Same production. Very different futures. And the curve is what helps to tell them apart.
This is one of the core ideas behind the GUTS dynasty engine. Well, at its core, it’s behind every dynasty valuation system. But for us, every player’s projection starts with where they sit on their position’s curve. This is a specific, data-backed trajectory built from 27 years of NFL careers across all four eras, and confirmed by the most recent eras of modern football.
The Hidden Nuance
There’s one more layer to this that people can miss entirely, and it changes everything about how these curves work. It’s not just about position. It’s about caliber.
A Franchise receiver doesn’t follow the same curve as a Good receiver. A top-5-all-time running back doesn’t age the same way as a solid starter. The shapes are similar, but the timing is different. From when they peak, to how long they hold it, and how fast they decline.
There’s also a difference between those who truly walked among the elites and those who just vacationed there. There’s a considerable subset of players in our dataset who looked like Franchise talent based on a single season. The catch? They followed a completely different curve from those who sustained it. And telling them apart, Dear Reader, is the difference between investing in gold or being stuck with fool’s gold.
Luckily for you, that distinction between peak production and sustained production is where we’re going next. Because the curve exists for every player. The question is which curve they’re actually on.
Lou Brunson serves as a Senior Analyst and designer of the projection systems used across Optimus Fantasy. His dynasty insights can be found here and at draftbuddy.com.
