Tell your friends (just not your leaguemates until next week)
The GUTS Dynasty Model, Explained Vol. 1: How We See the Game
by Lou Brunson
It has been said that the beginning is the very best place to start. Well, like most things, the GUTS model didn’t start at one point, so nailing down a beginning is difficult. But I’m choosing this as a beginning.
I know, I can hear it now, “Lou, that’s a nice little acronym, but how am I supposed to know what it means?!” Yup, that’s my bad. So GUTS stands for Gravitational Unifying Theory of Shifts. I know, GUTS sounds so much better, doesn’t it?
“Gravitational Unifying Theory of Shifts” is honestly a fancy way of saying, “This is how players move throughout their careers. There are a whole bunch of forces that pull on a player to bring them to where they belong, and all those forces work together to shift them there.” Like how gravity pulls whatever goes up, back down. So if we break it down piecemeal, Gravitational (what pulls on the players), Universal (everyone gets pulled on), Theory (this is my idea and theory) of Shifts (how they move). GUTS.
I promise, you don’t have to remember all that; there’s no quiz later. If you want one big idea to take away from this, it’s that everything in the system works together, like an ornate clock. Plus, you gotta have GUTS to play dynasty fantasy football. See? It’s got layers. Like an onion.
There has to be a foundation upon which everything else is built. It was a rather arduous task to get to this point (I started with four tiers, then five, before settling on six), but we got there. Don’t worry, I won’t take you through all the how I got here. After all, this is why I did the work. So you don’t have to.
Want more from Optimus Fantasy? Join our Discord!
The Six Tiers
You probably already think about players in tiers. Maybe you don’t think about it consciously, but you’re at least familiar with the concept. You know there’s a difference between the guy who wins you your league and the guy you’re starting at flex because your bye weeks lined up badly. You know there’s a gap between “solid starter” and “league winner.” You’ve felt it every time you’ve looked at your roster and thought, “I need to upgrade at receiver.”
We just put names on those levels and drew lines between them using 27 years of NFL data.
Franchise
These are the guys who redefine the position. The ones who, when one of your leaguemates comes to you trying to trade for them, you think, “Yeah, right!” When you hear a player’s name and immediately think “that’s a cheat code.” That’s Franchise. There are only a handful at any position in a given year. Think peak Josh Allen, prime Tyreek Hill. These aren’t just good players; they’re the reason you win weeks by 40 points.
Elite
Your fantasy stars. They’re legitimate difference-makers who are among the best at their position. But juuust shy of that top tier. You’re thrilled to have them. They anchor your lineup every week. Think of a player who finishes top 5-10 at his position most years. Your Amon-Ra St. Brown, your Josh Jacobs. That’s Elite.
Good
These are solid starters. They’re not super exciting, but they’re the guys you feel confident putting in your lineup and not worrying about. When you think of Good players, I want you to think of D’Andre Swift and Baker Mayfield. Are they great? No. They’re Good. They’re not winning you weeks by themselves, but they’re not losing them either.
Average
The best way to think of this tier is your flex plays at a position. Usable, but you’re not excited about it. You start them because the alternatives are worse, but you’re always looking for an upgrade. These are your Pat Freiermuth, Jauan Jennings types. They’re on rosters, they contribute, but they’re not moving the needle.
Rosterable
Bench pieces. Handcuffs. The guys you’re holding because of what they might become, or because they’d be useful if someone ahead of them gets hurt. You’re not starting them by choice. These are guys like Justice Hill and Hollywood Brown, and there are a ton of them.
Replacement
Waiver wire, or close enough. As injuries and bye weeks pile up, you might roster a few of these guys, but they’re end-of-roster churn, at most. If you lost this player tomorrow, you’d replace him with someone roughly equivalent in five minutes. Ryan Flournoy, Emari Demercado, and the list goes on and on.
That’s it. Six levels. We just made it precise enough to study. Every finding in every article we write references this system in some way, shape, or form. So when you see “Good-tier running back” or “Elite wide receiver,” you know exactly what kind of player we’re talking about.
The Four Eras
Here’s where it gets interesting, because this is the part most people don’t think about, but definitely accept as true.
The NFL in 2000 is not the NFL in 2010. And the NFL in 2010 is not the NFL in 2020. The rules have changed. The schemes have changed. The way teams use running backs, how many WRs are on the field, the volume of passing, the rise of the tight end as a receiving weapon, and more. All of it has shifted, sometimes dramatically.
So when I study player careers across 27 years of data, I can’t just dump it all in a bucket and pretend it’s the same game. It’s not. I was able to identify four distinct eras based on where the statistical landscape meaningfully shifts:
Era 1 (1999–2006): The Ground Game
Run-heavy offenses dominated. Passing volume was lower. Running backs were true bell cows — one guy getting 350+ carries wasn’t unusual. Fantasy scoring was driven by volume on the ground. The game looked fundamentally different from what you watch on Sundays now.
Era 2 (2007–2014): The Transition
The passing revolution begins. Rule changes protecting quarterbacks and receivers started opening up the downfield game. Passing volume climbed steadily. Running back committees started appearing. This is the era when the old model started to break down, and the new one hadn’t fully arrived.
Era 3 (2015–2019): The Modern Passing Game
This is where today’s game really took shape. Pass-heavy offenses became the norm. Running backs became increasingly interchangeable and committee-driven. Wide receivers and tight ends saw their target shares climb. If you’ve played fantasy football in the last decade, this is the version of football you know.
Era 4 (2020–Present): The Current Game
COVID year forward. The trends from Era 3 accelerated. Even more passing, even shorter RB shelf lives, and the emergence of the mobile QB as a fantasy archetype. This is the NFL right now.
A quick caveat. It’s somewhere between possible and likely that we’re seeing a new Era starting in 2024. But we need a couple more years of data to be sure. Call it a hunch, but I won’t spoil it for you.
Why This Matters
“OK, Lou, that’s a nice history lesson, but why do I care?” I’m so very glad you asked.
First: I pay extra attention when patterns hold across all four eras. When I studied career curves, breakout sustainability, and tier retention, just to name a few, the big structural findings replicate no matter which era we test them against. Running backs peak early and decline fast in Era 1. They do the same thing in Era 4. Wide receivers hold their prime longer than running backs in 2003 and in 2023. The magnitudes do shift. The raw numbers change because the game changed, of course, but the shapes are the same.
Second: we prioritize the recent eras. The patterns hold across all four, but when we’re projecting your players for 2026 and beyond, Era 3 and Era 4 are the most relevant. The modern game is where the calibration matters most. We use the full 27-year dataset to confirm that our findings are real, and we use the modern era to ensure the specific numbers are tuned to the game your players actually play.
For some things – like how we actually project forward – only using Eras 3 and 4 is preferable because, after all, why would we use 2002 trends to predict 2032? But for something as far-reaching and ubiquitous as career arcs? We look at all four.
But What Does it All Mean?
Everything I talk about from here forward all use these tiers and this era framework. Everything from career shapes to breakout patterns, to how long a player can sustain elite production, what happens when a player changes teams, and so much more.
So when I say a “A Good running back,” you know that’s your solid starter, not your league winner. When I say “the finding replicates across eras,” you know that means it’s been tested against four different versions of the NFL and held up every time. When we say “Era 3 and Era 4 data,” you know we’re talking about the modern game. You know, the one that actually matters for your roster decisions.
Not too bad, right? Now that we’ve got this foundation, just imagine where we’ll go from here.
Lou Brunson serves as a Senior Analyst and designer of the projection systems used across Optimus Fantasy. His dynasty insights can be found here and at draftbuddy.com.
It has been said that the beginning is the very best place to start. Well, like most things, the GUTS model didn’t start at one point, so nailing down a beginning is difficult. But I’m choosing this as a beginning.
I know, I can hear it now, “Lou, that’s a nice little acronym, but how am I supposed to know what it means?!” Yup, that’s my bad. So GUTS stands for Gravitational Unifying Theory of Shifts. I know, GUTS sounds so much better, doesn’t it?
“Gravitational Unifying Theory of Shifts” is honestly a fancy way of saying, “This is how players move throughout their careers. There are a whole bunch of forces that pull on a player to bring them to where they belong, and all those forces work together to shift them there.” Like how gravity pulls whatever goes up, back down. So if we break it down piecemeal, Gravitational (what pulls on the players), Universal (everyone gets pulled on), Theory (this is my idea and theory) of Shifts (how they move). GUTS.
I promise, you don’t have to remember all that; there’s no quiz later. If you want one big idea to take away from this, it’s that everything in the system works together, like an ornate clock. Plus, you gotta have GUTS to play dynasty fantasy football. See? It’s got layers. Like an onion.
There has to be a foundation upon which everything else is built. It was a rather arduous task to get to this point (I started with four tiers, then five, before settling on six), but we got there. Don’t worry, I won’t take you through all the how I got here. After all, this is why I did the work. So you don’t have to.
Want more from Optimus Fantasy? Join our Discord!
The Six Tiers
You probably already think about players in tiers. Maybe you don’t think about it consciously, but you’re at least familiar with the concept. You know there’s a difference between the guy who wins you your league and the guy you’re starting at flex because your bye weeks lined up badly. You know there’s a gap between “solid starter” and “league winner.” You’ve felt it every time you’ve looked at your roster and thought, “I need to upgrade at receiver.”
We just put names on those levels and drew lines between them using 27 years of NFL data.
Franchise
These are the guys who redefine the position. The ones who, when one of your leaguemates comes to you trying to trade for them, you think, “Yeah, right!” When you hear a player’s name and immediately think “that’s a cheat code.” That’s Franchise. There are only a handful at any position in a given year. Think peak Josh Allen, prime Tyreek Hill. These aren’t just good players; they’re the reason you win weeks by 40 points.
Elite
Your fantasy stars. They’re legitimate difference-makers who are among the best at their position. But juuust shy of that top tier. You’re thrilled to have them. They anchor your lineup every week. Think of a player who finishes top 5-10 at his position most years. Your Amon-Ra St. Brown, your Josh Jacobs. That’s Elite.
Good
These are solid starters. They’re not super exciting, but they’re the guys you feel confident putting in your lineup and not worrying about. When you think of Good players, I want you to think of D’Andre Swift and Baker Mayfield. Are they great? No. They’re Good. They’re not winning you weeks by themselves, but they’re not losing them either.
Average
The best way to think of this tier is your flex plays at a position. Usable, but you’re not excited about it. You start them because the alternatives are worse, but you’re always looking for an upgrade. These are your Pat Freiermuth, Jauan Jennings types. They’re on rosters, they contribute, but they’re not moving the needle.
Rosterable
Bench pieces. Handcuffs. The guys you’re holding because of what they might become, or because they’d be useful if someone ahead of them gets hurt. You’re not starting them by choice. These are guys like Justice Hill and Hollywood Brown, and there are a ton of them.
Replacement
Waiver wire, or close enough. As injuries and bye weeks pile up, you might roster a few of these guys, but they’re end-of-roster churn, at most. If you lost this player tomorrow, you’d replace him with someone roughly equivalent in five minutes. Ryan Flournoy, Emari Demercado, and the list goes on and on.
That’s it. Six levels. We just made it precise enough to study. Every finding in every article we write references this system in some way, shape, or form. So when you see “Good-tier running back” or “Elite wide receiver,” you know exactly what kind of player we’re talking about.
The Four Eras
Here’s where it gets interesting, because this is the part most people don’t think about, but definitely accept as true.
The NFL in 2000 is not the NFL in 2010. And the NFL in 2010 is not the NFL in 2020. The rules have changed. The schemes have changed. The way teams use running backs, how many WRs are on the field, the volume of passing, the rise of the tight end as a receiving weapon, and more. All of it has shifted, sometimes dramatically.
So when I study player careers across 27 years of data, I can’t just dump it all in a bucket and pretend it’s the same game. It’s not. I was able to identify four distinct eras based on where the statistical landscape meaningfully shifts:
Era 1 (1999–2006): The Ground Game
Run-heavy offenses dominated. Passing volume was lower. Running backs were true bell cows — one guy getting 350+ carries wasn’t unusual. Fantasy scoring was driven by volume on the ground. The game looked fundamentally different from what you watch on Sundays now.
Era 2 (2007–2014): The Transition
The passing revolution begins. Rule changes protecting quarterbacks and receivers started opening up the downfield game. Passing volume climbed steadily. Running back committees started appearing. This is the era when the old model started to break down, and the new one hadn’t fully arrived.
Era 3 (2015–2019): The Modern Passing Game
This is where today’s game really took shape. Pass-heavy offenses became the norm. Running backs became increasingly interchangeable and committee-driven. Wide receivers and tight ends saw their target shares climb. If you’ve played fantasy football in the last decade, this is the version of football you know.
Era 4 (2020–Present): The Current Game
COVID year forward. The trends from Era 3 accelerated. Even more passing, even shorter RB shelf lives, and the emergence of the mobile QB as a fantasy archetype. This is the NFL right now.
A quick caveat. It’s somewhere between possible and likely that we’re seeing a new Era starting in 2024. But we need a couple more years of data to be sure. Call it a hunch, but I won’t spoil it for you.
Why This Matters
“OK, Lou, that’s a nice history lesson, but why do I care?” I’m so very glad you asked.
First: I pay extra attention when patterns hold across all four eras. When I studied career curves, breakout sustainability, and tier retention, just to name a few, the big structural findings replicate no matter which era we test them against. Running backs peak early and decline fast in Era 1. They do the same thing in Era 4. Wide receivers hold their prime longer than running backs in 2003 and in 2023. The magnitudes do shift. The raw numbers change because the game changed, of course, but the shapes are the same.
Second: we prioritize the recent eras. The patterns hold across all four, but when we’re projecting your players for 2026 and beyond, Era 3 and Era 4 are the most relevant. The modern game is where the calibration matters most. We use the full 27-year dataset to confirm that our findings are real, and we use the modern era to ensure the specific numbers are tuned to the game your players actually play.
For some things – like how we actually project forward – only using Eras 3 and 4 is preferable because, after all, why would we use 2002 trends to predict 2032? But for something as far-reaching and ubiquitous as career arcs? We look at all four.
But What Does it All Mean?
Everything I talk about from here forward all use these tiers and this era framework. Everything from career shapes to breakout patterns, to how long a player can sustain elite production, what happens when a player changes teams, and so much more.
So when I say a “A Good running back,” you know that’s your solid starter, not your league winner. When I say “the finding replicates across eras,” you know that means it’s been tested against four different versions of the NFL and held up every time. When we say “Era 3 and Era 4 data,” you know we’re talking about the modern game. You know, the one that actually matters for your roster decisions.
Not too bad, right? Now that we’ve got this foundation, just imagine where we’ll go from here.
Lou Brunson serves as a Senior Analyst and designer of the projection systems used across Optimus Fantasy. His dynasty insights can be found here and at draftbuddy.com.
It has been said that the beginning is the very best place to start. Well, like most things, the GUTS model didn’t start at one point, so nailing down a beginning is difficult. But I’m choosing this as a beginning.
I know, I can hear it now, “Lou, that’s a nice little acronym, but how am I supposed to know what it means?!” Yup, that’s my bad. So GUTS stands for Gravitational Unifying Theory of Shifts. I know, GUTS sounds so much better, doesn’t it?
“Gravitational Unifying Theory of Shifts” is honestly a fancy way of saying, “This is how players move throughout their careers. There are a whole bunch of forces that pull on a player to bring them to where they belong, and all those forces work together to shift them there.” Like how gravity pulls whatever goes up, back down. So if we break it down piecemeal, Gravitational (what pulls on the players), Universal (everyone gets pulled on), Theory (this is my idea and theory) of Shifts (how they move). GUTS.
I promise, you don’t have to remember all that; there’s no quiz later. If you want one big idea to take away from this, it’s that everything in the system works together, like an ornate clock. Plus, you gotta have GUTS to play dynasty fantasy football. See? It’s got layers. Like an onion.
There has to be a foundation upon which everything else is built. It was a rather arduous task to get to this point (I started with four tiers, then five, before settling on six), but we got there. Don’t worry, I won’t take you through all the how I got here. After all, this is why I did the work. So you don’t have to.
Want more from Optimus Fantasy? Join our Discord!
The Six Tiers
You probably already think about players in tiers. Maybe you don’t think about it consciously, but you’re at least familiar with the concept. You know there’s a difference between the guy who wins you your league and the guy you’re starting at flex because your bye weeks lined up badly. You know there’s a gap between “solid starter” and “league winner.” You’ve felt it every time you’ve looked at your roster and thought, “I need to upgrade at receiver.”
We just put names on those levels and drew lines between them using 27 years of NFL data.
Franchise
These are the guys who redefine the position. The ones who, when one of your leaguemates comes to you trying to trade for them, you think, “Yeah, right!” When you hear a player’s name and immediately think “that’s a cheat code.” That’s Franchise. There are only a handful at any position in a given year. Think peak Josh Allen, prime Tyreek Hill. These aren’t just good players; they’re the reason you win weeks by 40 points.
Elite
Your fantasy stars. They’re legitimate difference-makers who are among the best at their position. But juuust shy of that top tier. You’re thrilled to have them. They anchor your lineup every week. Think of a player who finishes top 5-10 at his position most years. Your Amon-Ra St. Brown, your Josh Jacobs. That’s Elite.
Good
These are solid starters. They’re not super exciting, but they’re the guys you feel confident putting in your lineup and not worrying about. When you think of Good players, I want you to think of D’Andre Swift and Baker Mayfield. Are they great? No. They’re Good. They’re not winning you weeks by themselves, but they’re not losing them either.
Average
The best way to think of this tier is your flex plays at a position. Usable, but you’re not excited about it. You start them because the alternatives are worse, but you’re always looking for an upgrade. These are your Pat Freiermuth, Jauan Jennings types. They’re on rosters, they contribute, but they’re not moving the needle.
Rosterable
Bench pieces. Handcuffs. The guys you’re holding because of what they might become, or because they’d be useful if someone ahead of them gets hurt. You’re not starting them by choice. These are guys like Justice Hill and Hollywood Brown, and there are a ton of them.
Replacement
Waiver wire, or close enough. As injuries and bye weeks pile up, you might roster a few of these guys, but they’re end-of-roster churn, at most. If you lost this player tomorrow, you’d replace him with someone roughly equivalent in five minutes. Ryan Flournoy, Emari Demercado, and the list goes on and on.
That’s it. Six levels. We just made it precise enough to study. Every finding in every article we write references this system in some way, shape, or form. So when you see “Good-tier running back” or “Elite wide receiver,” you know exactly what kind of player we’re talking about.
The Four Eras
Here’s where it gets interesting, because this is the part most people don’t think about, but definitely accept as true.
The NFL in 2000 is not the NFL in 2010. And the NFL in 2010 is not the NFL in 2020. The rules have changed. The schemes have changed. The way teams use running backs, how many WRs are on the field, the volume of passing, the rise of the tight end as a receiving weapon, and more. All of it has shifted, sometimes dramatically.
So when I study player careers across 27 years of data, I can’t just dump it all in a bucket and pretend it’s the same game. It’s not. I was able to identify four distinct eras based on where the statistical landscape meaningfully shifts:
Era 1 (1999–2006): The Ground Game
Run-heavy offenses dominated. Passing volume was lower. Running backs were true bell cows — one guy getting 350+ carries wasn’t unusual. Fantasy scoring was driven by volume on the ground. The game looked fundamentally different from what you watch on Sundays now.
Era 2 (2007–2014): The Transition
The passing revolution begins. Rule changes protecting quarterbacks and receivers started opening up the downfield game. Passing volume climbed steadily. Running back committees started appearing. This is the era when the old model started to break down, and the new one hadn’t fully arrived.
Era 3 (2015–2019): The Modern Passing Game
This is where today’s game really took shape. Pass-heavy offenses became the norm. Running backs became increasingly interchangeable and committee-driven. Wide receivers and tight ends saw their target shares climb. If you’ve played fantasy football in the last decade, this is the version of football you know.
Era 4 (2020–Present): The Current Game
COVID year forward. The trends from Era 3 accelerated. Even more passing, even shorter RB shelf lives, and the emergence of the mobile QB as a fantasy archetype. This is the NFL right now.
A quick caveat. It’s somewhere between possible and likely that we’re seeing a new Era starting in 2024. But we need a couple more years of data to be sure. Call it a hunch, but I won’t spoil it for you.
Why This Matters
“OK, Lou, that’s a nice history lesson, but why do I care?” I’m so very glad you asked.
First: I pay extra attention when patterns hold across all four eras. When I studied career curves, breakout sustainability, and tier retention, just to name a few, the big structural findings replicate no matter which era we test them against. Running backs peak early and decline fast in Era 1. They do the same thing in Era 4. Wide receivers hold their prime longer than running backs in 2003 and in 2023. The magnitudes do shift. The raw numbers change because the game changed, of course, but the shapes are the same.
Second: we prioritize the recent eras. The patterns hold across all four, but when we’re projecting your players for 2026 and beyond, Era 3 and Era 4 are the most relevant. The modern game is where the calibration matters most. We use the full 27-year dataset to confirm that our findings are real, and we use the modern era to ensure the specific numbers are tuned to the game your players actually play.
For some things – like how we actually project forward – only using Eras 3 and 4 is preferable because, after all, why would we use 2002 trends to predict 2032? But for something as far-reaching and ubiquitous as career arcs? We look at all four.
But What Does it All Mean?
Everything I talk about from here forward all use these tiers and this era framework. Everything from career shapes to breakout patterns, to how long a player can sustain elite production, what happens when a player changes teams, and so much more.
So when I say a “A Good running back,” you know that’s your solid starter, not your league winner. When I say “the finding replicates across eras,” you know that means it’s been tested against four different versions of the NFL and held up every time. When we say “Era 3 and Era 4 data,” you know we’re talking about the modern game. You know, the one that actually matters for your roster decisions.
Not too bad, right? Now that we’ve got this foundation, just imagine where we’ll go from here.
Lou Brunson serves as a Senior Analyst and designer of the projection systems used across Optimus Fantasy. His dynasty insights can be found here and at draftbuddy.com.
