Underdog ADP

It is now officially July, which means that best ball summer is in full swing. For those unfamiliar, the best ball format affords players all the excitement and intrigue of drafting a fantasy team without the burden of having to make weekly roster decisions; as the system gives you your highest-scoring lineup automatically.

One of the most interesting aspects of this format is that it’s a marketplace unto itself, with a player’s average draft position (ADP) fluctuating with every report, roster move, and injury. When you look at your overall portfolio of best ball rosters, your most competitive will be those where you got good value on your picks.

Whereas overpaying for players will often tank your chances of making a deep run. Let’s take a look at players we like to outperform their current draft position and those who we think will struggle to return value relative to where they’re being drafted

Buys

Diontae Johnson — WR, Carolina Panthers | ADP: 72.9 | WR44

I get the natural inclination to be weary of the Panthers’ offense, but I think public sentiment can be exploited in this case. After a bumbling rookie campaign, the Panthers invested heavily in setting up Bryce Young for success this year. They hired QB glow-up specialist Dave Canales as their new head coach, spent more than $150M to sign two free agent guards, and traded for the best receiver Young has had as a pro, Diontae Johnson.

Johnson’s ability to get open is the trademark of his game, and he should be an immediate focal point in an offense that was plagued by a lack of separators last season. He might not carry the elite upside we target in best ball, but Diontae Johnson projects for 100+ catches and over 1,000 yards, and that is too good to pass up as the 44th receiver off the board.

Alvin Kamara — RB, New Orleans Saints |ADP: 77.3 | RB18

When you factor in the six-game suspension, lingering injuries throughout the year, and the general ineptitude of the Saints’ offense, it’s fair to say that 2023 was a lost season for Alvin Kamara. While it’s reasonable to speculate about whether or not Kamara’s best days are behind him, seeing him tumble to the sixth round is a bridge too far.

He remains one of the better pass-catching running backs in the league and should have little competition for rushing attempts in a room that features Kendre Millers and Jamaal Williams. The Saints also made a key off-season addition that could unlock Kamara’s upside when they hired Klint Kubiak to be their new offensive coordinator.

Kubiak is a disciple of the Shanahan tree that is known for getting the most out of their rushers and their zone-blocking scheme responsible for X of the top 10 fantasy scorers at the position last season. The opportunity and the circumstances set up perfectly for a bounce-back season from Alvin Kamara, and he is currently one of my highest-owned players this summer.

Dalton Kincaid — TE, Buffalo Bills | ADP: 52.5 | TE5

If you want to know an NFL team’s intentions, don’t listen to what they say. Watch what they do. Everything that the Buffalo Bills have done this off-season would indicate to me that they’re planning to heavily feature second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid in their offense this season. Kincaid was already trending in this direction last year, where, despite a very slow start to the season, he finished seventh at his position with 73 receptions.

The mid-season shift to Joe Brady as offensive coordinator boosted Kincaid’s profile as we still saw plenty of two tight end groupings for Buffalo, but Kincaid’s air yards share exploded to nearly 19% with Brady at the helm. Buffalo’s off-season moves saw both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis head out the door, vacating nearly 42% of Buffalo’s targets from last season.

They’ve replaced, in theory, Davis’ “X” role by drafting Keon Coleman in the second round, but there are legitimate questions about Coleman’s ability to separate (and thus draw targets) at the NFL level. Kincaid enters this season projected to be the No. 1 target on one of the top-scoring offenses in the league but can be drafted 15-20 picks after the other tight ends who profile similarly.

That type of value is simply too good to pass up. 

Jayden Daniels — QB, Washington Commanders |ADP: 101.1 | QB11

Whether you, as do I, believe that Jayden Daniels is already an NFL-caliber quarterback or think that his talent as a runner buoyed his Heisman campaign, it is abundantly clear that Daniels is a gifted ball carrier, and that has been the cheat code for fantasy production in the modern NFL.

Five of the top seven quarterbacks being drafted this year are of the dual-threat inclination, so the upside of a player like Daniels’ profile doesn’t need to be restated. What makes his current ADP so appealing is that his rushing ability protects you on the downside and raises the floor to a point where a solid return is very likely.

Dating back to 2011, no quarterback who has amassed at least 700 yards has finished worse than QB11 in points per game (PPG), and that list includes some of the most limited passers we’ve seen enter the league in recent memory. Taking a look at his circumstance, Daniels steps into an offense with very serviceable weapons, with a play caller in Kilff Kingsbury who helped Kyler Murray post a QB7 season in Year 1, and a defense that should keep Commanders’ games high-scoring.

Act quickly if you want to get into the Jayden Daniels business. We saw his ADP jump from QB13 about a month ago, and I’d expect that trend to hold as we get closer to the regular season.

Fades

Javonte Williams — RB, Denver Broncos | ADP: 109.8 | RB31

The situation for Javonte Williams this year is flat-out scary. He’s coming off a season where he was better than league average in total opportunities (almost 14 per game) running behind ProFootball Focus’ (PFF’s) fourth-rated offensive line in run-blocking, and yet was barely able to muster a top-30 finish at his position.

He rated 53rd at just 3.8 yards per touch last season and managed just 1.4 yards per carry when running from under center, where over 78% of his carries originated. His teammate, Jaleel McGlaughlin, outperformed Williams in nearly every efficiency metric that is tracked and is already receiving high praise for his performance in off-season camps this year. Add to this mix the acquisition of fifth-round selection Audric Estime, a bruiser with a knack for breaking tackles and a nose for the end zone, and you’ve got a circumstance that likely has Williams as the odd man out.

Javonte is falling into a bit of a dead zone on draft boards as it is, but if I’m selecting an RB there, I’d much rather shoot for the upside of players like Blake Corum (116.8), Gus Edwards (121.1) or Chase Brown (123.0). If you simply cannot leave your draft without a piece of the Denver backfield, waiting 50+ picks and drafting McGlaughlin is also an acceptable alternative to Williams. 

 

Trey McBride — TE, Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 46.7 | TE3

As much as it pains me personally to admit, given the role he played on many of my winning teams last season, I’m very concerned about Trey McBride’s ability to repeat his breakout performance from 2023. A closer look at his success from last year, and it’s clear that much of it was volume-based.

McBride broke into the top of his position four times on the year, each coming in games where he saw nine or more targets. Enter Marvin Harrison, a generational receiving prospect who is widely projected to lead the Cardinals in targets this season and bump McBride down to second fiddle. Normally, getting a tight end, which is the second option on their team, is still a good position to be in, but that’s not the case here.

Arizona finished 27th in the league last year in pass attempts per game, averaging just 30.4. Given that McBride is already priced at his ceiling and that ceiling is clearly volume-dependent, I don’t see it likely that he will return value.

I’d much rather grab the likes of Kelce, Andrews, or LaPorta in this range or wait two to four rounds and target guys like Kincaid or Engram. 

Rome Odunze — WR, Chicago Bears | ADP: 65.2 | WR38

Odunze is another one who stings for me as I’m in love with Rome Odunze’s profile as an NFL receiver, and he is one of my favorite values in dynasty drafts.

If, however, we’re talking about a prospectus for his first season, there’s cause for concern. Yes, typically, rookie wide receivers are one of the cheat codes to a successful best-ball campaign, but this year, we’ve seen the market adjust and inflate their prices to an extent that gives them little room for error.

Odunze projects to be the third banana in a Shane Waldron offense that has struggled to support more than two pass-catchers for basically his entire tenure as a play-caller.

Last year, for example, Seattle ran just 997 plays in 11 personnel, the second-fewest in the NFL. This left their receivers finishing 21st, 32nd and 48th in scoring at their position. We also cannot simply assume a prolific rookie campaign from first-round pick Caleb Williams despite his sterling pedigree and lofty expectations.

I do think there’s a decent chance that Odunze can find the end zone a fair amount this season, but a player with that true boom-bust type of profile is better saved for the double-digit rounds.