Redraft fantasy is as much about avoiding the wrong players as it is about picking the right ones. The list of early-round busts who were highly regarded going into a season is long, and I am sure each of you reading this has experienced the disappointment of an early-round pick not living up to the billing.

Least Favorite Fantasy Football Picks in Rounds 1–5

We are still very early in the 2026 draft cycle, but let’s look at a few players I am avoiding in the first five rounds of drafts for now. Note that this is all based on the current average draft position (ADP) for points-per-reception (PPR) leagues on Sleeper.

This distinction is important because I am not “out” on any of the players listed below. I simply think they are currently being drafted higher than they should be. If my least favorite first-round pick were to fall to the middle of the second round, of course I’d love to have him. This early in the year, nuance is required when discussing any of this.

Round 1: James Cook

I love starting an article about my least favorite picks with a player I do not hate at all. Cook is a nice, safe bet who has shown a solid floor in an excellent offense. Even with all of that, Cook is my first-round player to avoid because of his lower ceiling.

Based on how Cook has been used throughout his career, I find it difficult to see a path for him to finish as the overall RB1 in any given season. There are two major reasons for this.

First, he is not the prolific receiver that other running backs in his range are, whether because of his own limitations or the offense’s tendencies. Cook’s career high in receptions is 44, which came during his second season. The average reception total of the five running backs who finished ahead of him last season was 74.2. That is a difference of more than 30 receptions that Cook would need to make up on the ground.

That leads to the second concern: Josh Allen.

If a running back is going to lag behind his peers in the passing game, he needs to make up for it with touchdown production. Unfortunately for Cook, Allen is going to vulture rushing touchdowns every year. Allen has recorded at least 12 rushing touchdowns in three consecutive seasons.

All in all, I love Cook as a player, but I would much rather draft him in Round 2 than expect him to compete with players who are capable of finishing as the RB1 this season.

Round 2: Malik Nabers

This one feels a bit like cheating because I have to assume redraft ADP has not properly adjusted to the likelihood that Nabers, at best, will be limited to start the year and, at worst, could begin the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, which could cause him to miss games.

Either way, Nabers is a hard click for me in the second round with that level of risk. He is far from a death sentence for a fantasy roster. If you draft well and build a strong team around him, you could still be in playoff contention when he is hopefully healthy later in the year. I just feel the second round is too early for that type of risk-reward scenario, given the other options available.

I’ll offer a spicier take here to clear my conscience for the easy pick: I will 00also be avoiding Trey McBride in Round 2.

I love McBride, but the combination of a new offense, the possibility of Carson Beck starting games and healthy options at wide receiver makes me prefer the ceiling of Brock Bowers and maybe even Colston Loveland over McBride this season. McBride is still a great player and a good pick. I would just rather spend a third-round pick on Bowers or a fourth-round pick on Loveland.

Round 3: Bucky Irving

My concerns with Irving involve both the player and the situation.

Running backs under 200 pounds often carry a greater injury risk than their larger peers. Add that to the injuries we already saw Irving deal with last year, and I find myself looking elsewhere in the third round.

In addition, it is always important to pay attention to what a team is telling you through its actions, not just its words. The Buccaneers did not stand pat at running back this offseason. They added Kenneth Gainwell on a notable contract, earning a yearly salary similar to Tyler Allgeier, Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle and D’Andre Swift. They also brought back trusted running back Sean Tucker.

The Buccaneers clearly believe they need additional options at the position.

Round 4: Luther Burden

I know Burden is the darling of the offseason, and I am wading into some dangerous waters with this pick, but hear me out.

I believe that with the departure of DJ Moore, the Bears are going to become a much more concentrated offense, which fantasy managers love. This is an offense that is going to throw for a lot of yards and likely produce multiple fantasy-relevant players. Burden, Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland all project as players you’d love to have on your roster this season.

My issue with Burden is not his talent but his price.

This is currently a very ambiguous situation. It is difficult to know which of the three primary receiving options will emerge as the statistical leader. In situations like that, I generally prefer targeting the cheaper options.

Burden currently carries a fourth-round ADP, and I have even seen him sneak into the third round ahead of both alternatives. Odunze, on the other hand, is not typically drafted until the sixth or seventh round. To me, that is a safer bet with a similar ceiling.

Round 5: R.J. Harvey

This feels like wishful thinking on the part of fantasy managers.

Harvey did almost nothing last season to justify this ADP. The Broncos have shown they would rather give carries to JK Dobbins. In games where both Harvey and Dobbins were healthy, Harvey out-carried Dobbins exactly zero times and reached double-digit carries only once.

In addition, the Broncos added Jonah Coleman in the fourth round of this year’s draft, likely to help carry the load if Dobbins’ injury history once again becomes a factor.

I see Harvey as a boom-or-bust candidate who will rely heavily on big plays and touchdowns. That kind of player can provide value, but he will be difficult to trust every week. 

Jay Green is a contributor to Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Jay on Bluesky and on Optimus Fantasy.