Tell your friends (just not your leaguemates until next week)
by Kevin Tompkins
Welcome to Week 10 of Angles & Leverage! It’s the first week we’ve had this season, some truly uneasy lineup decisions this week, especially in DFS. I can’t believe I was scouring stone-minimum wide receivers with actual intent to start one of them. It was gross! Four more teams are on bye this week, including the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and the Tennessee Titans.
We have some clarity and insight into what these teams are doing, and we’re no longer guessing about player utilization. While the NFL is a true week-to-week league, identifying angles in micro- and macro-level decision-making is a significant part of fantasy football during the middle of the season.
In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts I have about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. We got to almost 3,000 words this week, because there’s a LOT to talk about!
NFL Week 10 Fantasy Football Angles & Leverage
*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs*
*🔒 = Locked in to your lineup
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts (48.5 Over/Under)
Atlanta Falcons
🔒: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
- Your plays are all set with the above two, and if you’re feeling froggy, Kyle Pitts for his late-stage Jared Cook cosplay with the hope that he compiles enough catches in PPR to be useful.
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
🔒: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren
- It’s likely that AJ Terrell won’t shadow either outside receiver for the Colts, so that’s a good thing for both Pittman and Alec Pierce. This Colts’ offense just elevates everybody, man. All three of Pittman, Pierce, and Josh Downs, plus Warren, are very much in play. Same with Daniel Jones with a bounce-back game as he looks to put last week’s five turnovers behind him.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (50.5)
Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
🔒: Josh Allen, James Cook
- If the Bills get up and this game isn’t a “game”, James Cook is going to go nuts again.
- If you’re going to play a passing game option, it’s Khalil Shakir and the anomaly known as Dalton Kincaid, who continues to produce like a mid-range TE1 despite getting the third-most snaps among his own tight end room.
Miami Dolphins
🔒: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle
- The condensed Miami Dolphins offense is easy every week. The above two options, but Greg Dulcich isn’t in play with Matt Milano patrolling the middle. The Dolphins did cut Tanner Conner, so it’s going to be a two-man game with Julian Hill and Dulcich. Still, I’m not playing Dulcich.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings (48.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
🔒: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
- Your Ravens are pretty set in stone here, and toss in Mark Andrews here as a nice play in DFS that doesn’t always feel the best, but will likely be low-owned.
Minnesota Vikings
- Aaron Jones is questionable with his shoulder injury, and that says something about Jordan Mason that the Vikings were so willing to give Jones the 1A role immediately upon returning. Obviously, Mason is going to inherit that if Jones can’t go.
- Jordan Addison is probably the pass-catcher who’s most affected if J.J. McCarthy struggles. McCarthy has had some moments, but I don’t think he can support more than Justin Jefferson for fantasy at this stage.
- T.J. Hockenson is a nice pivot if you think this game can shoot out, which it certainly can with a 48.5 over/under.
New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5)
New England Patriots
🔒: Drake Maye
- No Kayshon Boutte, so it’s pretty likely that Kyle Williams will run a sizable chunk of routes as the de facto “X” receiver. We could also see some Mack Hollins at “X” as well. At the stone minimum on DK, Williams, Devaughn Vele ($3.3k), and Ray-Ray McCloud (NYG) feel like good plays that will run a ton of routes at minimum salary or close to it.
- I still really like Diggs here, and to a lesser extent, Hunter Henry. Demario Douglas doesn’t run enough routes to matter, but he will be involved in a Marvin Mims-ish type of way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
🔒: Emeka Egbuka
- Emeka Egbuka has run pretty cold after running so hot for the first month or so of the season, but he’s a big-time regression to the mean candidate. He’s clearly the best option here to blow up out of any Buccaneers’ receivers.
- Tez Johnson is a nice play, though, as he’s been the most productive AND efficient in a 2024 Jalen Coker-y kind of way, where Johnson has earned routes little by little and stayed on the field based on his burgeoning efficiency.
- Sean Tucker has been encroaching little by little on the Rachaad White role, and Bucky Irving is out here. I’m feeling a little less confident in White after a strong start to the full-time role, following Irving’s injury.
New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears (46.5)
New York Giants
🔒: Jaxson Dart
- Jaxson Dart has been pretty awesome the last month of the season, with three weeks out of the last four scoring 23 fantasy points or more.
- Sadly, it’s just Wan’Dale Robinson in the “PPR scam” role, but Theo Johnson has mastered the “only score a touchdown and not much else” play.
- With this running back workload split down the middle, it’s hard to start either Tyrone Tracy or Devin Singletary. If I were forced to, I would choose Singletary. The kids are calling him “motor”, you know…
Chicago Bears (-4.5)
🔒: The run game
- Normally, a running back would be set as a locked-in option, but with D’Andre Swift back, he’s going to have the 60/40 role in the run game with Kyle Monangai. The Giants are legitimately one of the worst rush defenses in the league, so pass volume could be shrunk quite a bit.
- Obviously, that stinks for the passing game, but Rome Odunze could be a squeaky wheel for the Bears to get him immediately involved. D.J. Moore and Colston Loveland are the less important (but flex-worthy) options here, along with Caleb Williams as more of the QB2.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers (38.5)
New Orleans Saints
🔒: N/A
- The wheels have completely fallen off for Alvin Kamara, but the Saints remain loyal in an “Miguel Cabrera in his final couple of seasons in Detroit” kind of way. He’s toxic for any kind of fantasy lineup.
- Without Rashid Shaheed, things could condense down to Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson, with a step down to Devaughn Vele as a tertiary receiver.
- Vele feels okay as a DFS punt play at receiver rather than playing Olave. I’d only really play any Saints in DFS in correlation with Rico Dowdle.
Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
🔒: Rico Dowdle
- Rico Dowdle smash spot loading…
- The only passing game piece you’re playing is Tetairoa McMillan (as long as he is active), who has every per-route metric stat you love, BUT the production. McMillan runs a ton of routes, is very efficient (1.85 YPRR), gets a ton of targets (22.6% TPRR), and has a 29% first-read target share. He’s just so far and away the best option they have in the passing game.
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets (37.5)
Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
- One of the lowest over/unders of the slate, the Browns should lean heavily on the run against a team that just traded away DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner. The Jets allow the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs, and without that interior presence, the boat could be springing new leaks.
- Harold Fannin is questionable, but he’s a low-end tight end play with David Njoku active. Fannin probably isn’t game for 80%+ routes, but he did run more routes (74% for Fannin to 58% for Njoku in Week 8) the last time both tight ends played together in the same game.
- Even if Cedric Tillman returns, these wide receivers are not it.
New York Jets
🔒: N/A
- There’s no starting quarterback named yet, which makes it a little tough. No matter who is under center, you’re starting Garrett Wilson as long as he’s active. He’s questionable with a knee injury but is expected to play.
- Last time we saw Breece Hall, he was torching the Bengals (what else is new?) to the tune of 133 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns are not the Bengals, and Hall’s touches will be managed a bit with Isaiah Davis involved. That said, I like Hall a bit more if Justin Fields is the quarterback, just because it allows the Jets to threaten the Browns’ defense another way, so they can’t stack the box and dare the Jets to pass, like they would with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (37.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
🔒: N/A
- No Brian Thomas, and we’re unsure about the immediate role of Jakobi Meyers in his first game as a Jaguar. Parker Washington retains a slot role even if Meyers takes a bunch of routes.
- Travis Etienne continues to have a large role and has distanced himself from Bhayshul Tuten despite a touchdown last week. Against the Texans, who are 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, Etienne is strictly a volume play.
Houston Texans
🔒: Nico Collins
- It was gross before with C.J. Stroud, but with Davis Mills? You’re just doing Nico Collins and possibly Dalton Schultz as a tight end streamer. Schultz is a moderately safe bet for targets in this offense and feels above the riffraff that is Christian Kirk, Xavier Hutchinson, and the rookies.
- Both Woody Marks and Nick Chubb are RB3 options, with Marks slightly ahead thanks to the receiving stuff. That said, this is one of the more disgusting backfields to sort through each week. It’s not like Marks is running away with anything, as among 123 running backs, Marks is 117th in Rush EPA (-21.9) this season.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (45.5)
Arizona Cardinals
🔒: Trey McBride
- Jacoby Brissett is the starter for the Cardinals, likely for the rest of the season. Obviously, a good thing for Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, who had one of the best games of his career against Dallas on MNF. Seattle allows the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Obviously, McBride is a must-start, but the hope for starting Harrison is that he continues to build on his momentum from last week, and the targets condense to those two in the offense.
- Emari Demercado saw 48% of the team’s rushing attempts last week and led the way for the Cardinals, but Jonathan Gannon said, “similar, but not the same… maybe a little bit different” as it pertains to their running back workload split this week. Who the hell knows what THAT means, but I’m not starting anybody here if I can help it.
Seattle Seahawks (-7)
🔒: Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- The real leverage point here is how much Rashid Shaheed ultimately plays… he should play extensive snaps as the rest of the Seahawks’ receiving corps is banged up and Shaheed has experience in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense from his time in New Orleans.
- This backfield is a coin flip. Kenneth Walker has the home run speed, but hasn’t shown it. The team loves Zach Charbonnet in the green zone, but he hasn’t been great there either. If we’re expecting a score, I’m playing Charbonnet over Walker. Both are high-end RB3 options and startable, but you have to know that the floor is much lower than anybody cares to admit.
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders (49.5)
Detroit Lions (-8.5)
🔒: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Do you think Dan Campbell is going to let this game slide by as just another game? Campbell is the most narrative-driven coach in the NFL, and the Lions face the Commanders, the team the Lions lost to at home in the NFC Divisional Round last season.
- This will be a game where, if the Lions get a big lead, they’ll have a longer leash than normal when it comes to playing their starters. The Commanders allow the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, so that’s a trifecta we’ll be banking on here.
- An “all hands on deck” game here with your Lions studs, plus Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. An elite DFS stacking opportunity here in tournaments.
Washington Commanders
🔒: N/A
- Marcus Mariota starts for Jayden Daniels, and with Terry McLaurin out after reaggravating his quad injury, it gets incredibly gross here to start anybody.
- Deebo Samuel is probably an okay start, but he’s somebody I’m not looking to for a ceiling game by any means.
- It’s one thing if the environment around him was great and Jacory Croskey-Merritt was struggling, but this isn’t a spot to start him, especially when you’ve got other players like Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols encroaching on him to bring back the dreaded three-back backfield. No thanks.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (49.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
🔒: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
- Your weekly reminder to start your studs.
San Francisco 49ers
- Another week, another “Ricky Pearsall is out” tweet.
- Brock Purdy is questionable, but Mac Jones has been named the starter regardless of whether Purdy is active.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (45.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers
🔒: N/A
- D.K. Metcalf is just outside the top-24 fantasy wide receivers at WR25, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. Metcalf has been very touchdown-dependent this season, with over 28% of his fantasy scoring coming from the touchdown. The average for a player varies, with 19-to-20% being the average for a wide receiver. Metcalf has the ninth-highest rate of any wide receiver, yet on the 13th-highest scoring offense in the league. The Chargers allow the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but play heavy zone, where Metcalf has done well. Still, I’m probably fading here in most spots.
- However, it’s a fine spot for Jaylen Warren, as he’s put Kenneth Gainwell in the rear-view mirror for the last month and change. Chargers are middle of the road against the run, and it’s the Steelers’ best way of controlling things and putting points on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
🔒: Justin Herbert, Oronde Gadsden
- Your passing game pieces are all very much in play here, minus Keenan Allen. He’s getting his routes managed with the team using fewer than 11 personnel. That’s likely the byproduct of not having both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater at the tackle spots.
- Kimani Vidal is a fine enough play, but it depends on whether you think the Steelers play the same as they did against the Colts or if they’re not great most other times. Environment aside, Vidal is in a good spot, but wouldn’t be shocked if Jaret Patterson remains in a complementary role.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers (45.5)
Philadelphia Eagles
🔒: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
- The Eagles’ hyper-condensed offense all get starting nods here, but you’re hoping the Jalen Hurts efficiency really carries over because if the Eagles have their way and can run and control things against a Packers team that lost its best weapon in Tucker Kraft, there won’t be much pass volume for all of the startable pass-catchers, including DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert in addition to Brown.
- Green Bay allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and Saquon Barkley is dealing with his own efficiency issues, but he’s still got to be started no matter what.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
🔒: Josh Jacobs
- Post Tucker Kraft, it’s Romeo Doubs as a WR3, and then Christian Watson as a boom-or-bust flex play. I don’t mind Luke Musgrave as a low-end streamer or DFS punt play at tight end, but the floor is zero here.
- I don’t think there’s a world where the Packers can push the Eagles to the degree that he’s fantasy-viable this week. I’m happy to be wrong, but it feels like a gross spot, even at home.
Kevin Tompkins is the co-owner of Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Kevin on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social and right here on Optimus Fantasy!
Welcome to Week 10 of Angles & Leverage! It’s the first week we’ve had this season, some truly uneasy lineup decisions this week, especially in DFS. I can’t believe I was scouring stone-minimum wide receivers with actual intent to start one of them. It was gross! Four more teams are on bye this week, including the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and the Tennessee Titans.
We have some clarity and insight into what these teams are doing, and we’re no longer guessing about player utilization. While the NFL is a true week-to-week league, identifying angles in micro- and macro-level decision-making is a significant part of fantasy football during the middle of the season.
In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts I have about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. We got to almost 3,000 words this week, because there’s a LOT to talk about!
NFL Week 10 Fantasy Football Angles & Leverage
*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs*
*🔒 = Locked in to your lineup
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts (48.5 Over/Under)
Atlanta Falcons
🔒: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
- Your plays are all set with the above two, and if you’re feeling froggy, Kyle Pitts for his late-stage Jared Cook cosplay with the hope that he compiles enough catches in PPR to be useful.
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
🔒: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren
- It’s likely that AJ Terrell won’t shadow either outside receiver for the Colts, so that’s a good thing for both Pittman and Alec Pierce. This Colts’ offense just elevates everybody, man. All three of Pittman, Pierce, and Josh Downs, plus Warren, are very much in play. Same with Daniel Jones with a bounce-back game as he looks to put last week’s five turnovers behind him.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (50.5)
Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
🔒: Josh Allen, James Cook
- If the Bills get up and this game isn’t a “game”, James Cook is going to go nuts again.
- If you’re going to play a passing game option, it’s Khalil Shakir and the anomaly known as Dalton Kincaid, who continues to produce like a mid-range TE1 despite getting the third-most snaps among his own tight end room.
Miami Dolphins
🔒: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle
- The condensed Miami Dolphins offense is easy every week. The above two options, but Greg Dulcich isn’t in play with Matt Milano patrolling the middle. The Dolphins did cut Tanner Conner, so it’s going to be a two-man game with Julian Hill and Dulcich. Still, I’m not playing Dulcich.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings (48.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
🔒: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
- Your Ravens are pretty set in stone here, and toss in Mark Andrews here as a nice play in DFS that doesn’t always feel the best, but will likely be low-owned.
Minnesota Vikings
- Aaron Jones is questionable with his shoulder injury, and that says something about Jordan Mason that the Vikings were so willing to give Jones the 1A role immediately upon returning. Obviously, Mason is going to inherit that if Jones can’t go.
- Jordan Addison is probably the pass-catcher who’s most affected if J.J. McCarthy struggles. McCarthy has had some moments, but I don’t think he can support more than Justin Jefferson for fantasy at this stage.
- T.J. Hockenson is a nice pivot if you think this game can shoot out, which it certainly can with a 48.5 over/under.
New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5)
New England Patriots
🔒: Drake Maye
- No Kayshon Boutte, so it’s pretty likely that Kyle Williams will run a sizable chunk of routes as the de facto “X” receiver. We could also see some Mack Hollins at “X” as well. At the stone minimum on DK, Williams, Devaughn Vele ($3.3k), and Ray-Ray McCloud (NYG) feel like good plays that will run a ton of routes at minimum salary or close to it.
- I still really like Diggs here, and to a lesser extent, Hunter Henry. Demario Douglas doesn’t run enough routes to matter, but he will be involved in a Marvin Mims-ish type of way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
🔒: Emeka Egbuka
- Emeka Egbuka has run pretty cold after running so hot for the first month or so of the season, but he’s a big-time regression to the mean candidate. He’s clearly the best option here to blow up out of any Buccaneers’ receivers.
- Tez Johnson is a nice play, though, as he’s been the most productive AND efficient in a 2024 Jalen Coker-y kind of way, where Johnson has earned routes little by little and stayed on the field based on his burgeoning efficiency.
- Sean Tucker has been encroaching little by little on the Rachaad White role, and Bucky Irving is out here. I’m feeling a little less confident in White after a strong start to the full-time role, following Irving’s injury.
New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears (46.5)
New York Giants
🔒: Jaxson Dart
- Jaxson Dart has been pretty awesome the last month of the season, with three weeks out of the last four scoring 23 fantasy points or more.
- Sadly, it’s just Wan’Dale Robinson in the “PPR scam” role, but Theo Johnson has mastered the “only score a touchdown and not much else” play.
- With this running back workload split down the middle, it’s hard to start either Tyrone Tracy or Devin Singletary. If I were forced to, I would choose Singletary. The kids are calling him “motor”, you know…
Chicago Bears (-4.5)
🔒: The run game
- Normally, a running back would be set as a locked-in option, but with D’Andre Swift back, he’s going to have the 60/40 role in the run game with Kyle Monangai. The Giants are legitimately one of the worst rush defenses in the league, so pass volume could be shrunk quite a bit.
- Obviously, that stinks for the passing game, but Rome Odunze could be a squeaky wheel for the Bears to get him immediately involved. D.J. Moore and Colston Loveland are the less important (but flex-worthy) options here, along with Caleb Williams as more of the QB2.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers (38.5)
New Orleans Saints
🔒: N/A
- The wheels have completely fallen off for Alvin Kamara, but the Saints remain loyal in an “Miguel Cabrera in his final couple of seasons in Detroit” kind of way. He’s toxic for any kind of fantasy lineup.
- Without Rashid Shaheed, things could condense down to Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson, with a step down to Devaughn Vele as a tertiary receiver.
- Vele feels okay as a DFS punt play at receiver rather than playing Olave. I’d only really play any Saints in DFS in correlation with Rico Dowdle.
Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
🔒: Rico Dowdle
- Rico Dowdle smash spot loading…
- The only passing game piece you’re playing is Tetairoa McMillan (as long as he is active), who has every per-route metric stat you love, BUT the production. McMillan runs a ton of routes, is very efficient (1.85 YPRR), gets a ton of targets (22.6% TPRR), and has a 29% first-read target share. He’s just so far and away the best option they have in the passing game.
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets (37.5)
Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
- One of the lowest over/unders of the slate, the Browns should lean heavily on the run against a team that just traded away DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner. The Jets allow the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs, and without that interior presence, the boat could be springing new leaks.
- Harold Fannin is questionable, but he’s a low-end tight end play with David Njoku active. Fannin probably isn’t game for 80%+ routes, but he did run more routes (74% for Fannin to 58% for Njoku in Week 8) the last time both tight ends played together in the same game.
- Even if Cedric Tillman returns, these wide receivers are not it.
New York Jets
🔒: N/A
- There’s no starting quarterback named yet, which makes it a little tough. No matter who is under center, you’re starting Garrett Wilson as long as he’s active. He’s questionable with a knee injury but is expected to play.
- Last time we saw Breece Hall, he was torching the Bengals (what else is new?) to the tune of 133 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns are not the Bengals, and Hall’s touches will be managed a bit with Isaiah Davis involved. That said, I like Hall a bit more if Justin Fields is the quarterback, just because it allows the Jets to threaten the Browns’ defense another way, so they can’t stack the box and dare the Jets to pass, like they would with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (37.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
🔒: N/A
- No Brian Thomas, and we’re unsure about the immediate role of Jakobi Meyers in his first game as a Jaguar. Parker Washington retains a slot role even if Meyers takes a bunch of routes.
- Travis Etienne continues to have a large role and has distanced himself from Bhayshul Tuten despite a touchdown last week. Against the Texans, who are 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, Etienne is strictly a volume play.
Houston Texans
🔒: Nico Collins
- It was gross before with C.J. Stroud, but with Davis Mills? You’re just doing Nico Collins and possibly Dalton Schultz as a tight end streamer. Schultz is a moderately safe bet for targets in this offense and feels above the riffraff that is Christian Kirk, Xavier Hutchinson, and the rookies.
- Both Woody Marks and Nick Chubb are RB3 options, with Marks slightly ahead thanks to the receiving stuff. That said, this is one of the more disgusting backfields to sort through each week. It’s not like Marks is running away with anything, as among 123 running backs, Marks is 117th in Rush EPA (-21.9) this season.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (45.5)
Arizona Cardinals
🔒: Trey McBride
- Jacoby Brissett is the starter for the Cardinals, likely for the rest of the season. Obviously, a good thing for Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, who had one of the best games of his career against Dallas on MNF. Seattle allows the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Obviously, McBride is a must-start, but the hope for starting Harrison is that he continues to build on his momentum from last week, and the targets condense to those two in the offense.
- Emari Demercado saw 48% of the team’s rushing attempts last week and led the way for the Cardinals, but Jonathan Gannon said, “similar, but not the same… maybe a little bit different” as it pertains to their running back workload split this week. Who the hell knows what THAT means, but I’m not starting anybody here if I can help it.
Seattle Seahawks (-7)
🔒: Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- The real leverage point here is how much Rashid Shaheed ultimately plays… he should play extensive snaps as the rest of the Seahawks’ receiving corps is banged up and Shaheed has experience in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense from his time in New Orleans.
- This backfield is a coin flip. Kenneth Walker has the home run speed, but hasn’t shown it. The team loves Zach Charbonnet in the green zone, but he hasn’t been great there either. If we’re expecting a score, I’m playing Charbonnet over Walker. Both are high-end RB3 options and startable, but you have to know that the floor is much lower than anybody cares to admit.
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders (49.5)
Detroit Lions (-8.5)
🔒: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Do you think Dan Campbell is going to let this game slide by as just another game? Campbell is the most narrative-driven coach in the NFL, and the Lions face the Commanders, the team the Lions lost to at home in the NFC Divisional Round last season.
- This will be a game where, if the Lions get a big lead, they’ll have a longer leash than normal when it comes to playing their starters. The Commanders allow the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, so that’s a trifecta we’ll be banking on here.
- An “all hands on deck” game here with your Lions studs, plus Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. An elite DFS stacking opportunity here in tournaments.
Washington Commanders
🔒: N/A
- Marcus Mariota starts for Jayden Daniels, and with Terry McLaurin out after reaggravating his quad injury, it gets incredibly gross here to start anybody.
- Deebo Samuel is probably an okay start, but he’s somebody I’m not looking to for a ceiling game by any means.
- It’s one thing if the environment around him was great and Jacory Croskey-Merritt was struggling, but this isn’t a spot to start him, especially when you’ve got other players like Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols encroaching on him to bring back the dreaded three-back backfield. No thanks.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (49.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
🔒: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
- Your weekly reminder to start your studs.
San Francisco 49ers
- Another week, another “Ricky Pearsall is out” tweet.
- Brock Purdy is questionable, but Mac Jones has been named the starter regardless of whether Purdy is active.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (45.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers
🔒: N/A
- D.K. Metcalf is just outside the top-24 fantasy wide receivers at WR25, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. Metcalf has been very touchdown-dependent this season, with over 28% of his fantasy scoring coming from the touchdown. The average for a player varies, with 19-to-20% being the average for a wide receiver. Metcalf has the ninth-highest rate of any wide receiver, yet on the 13th-highest scoring offense in the league. The Chargers allow the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but play heavy zone, where Metcalf has done well. Still, I’m probably fading here in most spots.
- However, it’s a fine spot for Jaylen Warren, as he’s put Kenneth Gainwell in the rear-view mirror for the last month and change. Chargers are middle of the road against the run, and it’s the Steelers’ best way of controlling things and putting points on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
🔒: Justin Herbert, Oronde Gadsden
- Your passing game pieces are all very much in play here, minus Keenan Allen. He’s getting his routes managed with the team using fewer than 11 personnel. That’s likely the byproduct of not having both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater at the tackle spots.
- Kimani Vidal is a fine enough play, but it depends on whether you think the Steelers play the same as they did against the Colts or if they’re not great most other times. Environment aside, Vidal is in a good spot, but wouldn’t be shocked if Jaret Patterson remains in a complementary role.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers (45.5)
Philadelphia Eagles
🔒: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
- The Eagles’ hyper-condensed offense all get starting nods here, but you’re hoping the Jalen Hurts efficiency really carries over because if the Eagles have their way and can run and control things against a Packers team that lost its best weapon in Tucker Kraft, there won’t be much pass volume for all of the startable pass-catchers, including DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert in addition to Brown.
- Green Bay allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and Saquon Barkley is dealing with his own efficiency issues, but he’s still got to be started no matter what.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
🔒: Josh Jacobs
- Post Tucker Kraft, it’s Romeo Doubs as a WR3, and then Christian Watson as a boom-or-bust flex play. I don’t mind Luke Musgrave as a low-end streamer or DFS punt play at tight end, but the floor is zero here.
- I don’t think there’s a world where the Packers can push the Eagles to the degree that he’s fantasy-viable this week. I’m happy to be wrong, but it feels like a gross spot, even at home.
Kevin Tompkins is the co-owner of Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Kevin on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social and right here on Optimus Fantasy!
Welcome to Week 10 of Angles & Leverage! It’s the first week we’ve had this season, some truly uneasy lineup decisions this week, especially in DFS. I can’t believe I was scouring stone-minimum wide receivers with actual intent to start one of them. It was gross! Four more teams are on bye this week, including the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and the Tennessee Titans.
We have some clarity and insight into what these teams are doing, and we’re no longer guessing about player utilization. While the NFL is a true week-to-week league, identifying angles in micro- and macro-level decision-making is a significant part of fantasy football during the middle of the season.
In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts I have about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. We got to almost 3,000 words this week, because there’s a LOT to talk about!
NFL Week 10 Fantasy Football Angles & Leverage
*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs*
*🔒 = Locked in to your lineup
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts (48.5 Over/Under)
Atlanta Falcons
🔒: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
- Your plays are all set with the above two, and if you’re feeling froggy, Kyle Pitts for his late-stage Jared Cook cosplay with the hope that he compiles enough catches in PPR to be useful.
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
🔒: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren
- It’s likely that AJ Terrell won’t shadow either outside receiver for the Colts, so that’s a good thing for both Pittman and Alec Pierce. This Colts’ offense just elevates everybody, man. All three of Pittman, Pierce, and Josh Downs, plus Warren, are very much in play. Same with Daniel Jones with a bounce-back game as he looks to put last week’s five turnovers behind him.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (50.5)
Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
🔒: Josh Allen, James Cook
- If the Bills get up and this game isn’t a “game”, James Cook is going to go nuts again.
- If you’re going to play a passing game option, it’s Khalil Shakir and the anomaly known as Dalton Kincaid, who continues to produce like a mid-range TE1 despite getting the third-most snaps among his own tight end room.
Miami Dolphins
🔒: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle
- The condensed Miami Dolphins offense is easy every week. The above two options, but Greg Dulcich isn’t in play with Matt Milano patrolling the middle. The Dolphins did cut Tanner Conner, so it’s going to be a two-man game with Julian Hill and Dulcich. Still, I’m not playing Dulcich.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings (48.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
🔒: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
- Your Ravens are pretty set in stone here, and toss in Mark Andrews here as a nice play in DFS that doesn’t always feel the best, but will likely be low-owned.
Minnesota Vikings
- Aaron Jones is questionable with his shoulder injury, and that says something about Jordan Mason that the Vikings were so willing to give Jones the 1A role immediately upon returning. Obviously, Mason is going to inherit that if Jones can’t go.
- Jordan Addison is probably the pass-catcher who’s most affected if J.J. McCarthy struggles. McCarthy has had some moments, but I don’t think he can support more than Justin Jefferson for fantasy at this stage.
- T.J. Hockenson is a nice pivot if you think this game can shoot out, which it certainly can with a 48.5 over/under.
New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5)
New England Patriots
🔒: Drake Maye
- No Kayshon Boutte, so it’s pretty likely that Kyle Williams will run a sizable chunk of routes as the de facto “X” receiver. We could also see some Mack Hollins at “X” as well. At the stone minimum on DK, Williams, Devaughn Vele ($3.3k), and Ray-Ray McCloud (NYG) feel like good plays that will run a ton of routes at minimum salary or close to it.
- I still really like Diggs here, and to a lesser extent, Hunter Henry. Demario Douglas doesn’t run enough routes to matter, but he will be involved in a Marvin Mims-ish type of way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
🔒: Emeka Egbuka
- Emeka Egbuka has run pretty cold after running so hot for the first month or so of the season, but he’s a big-time regression to the mean candidate. He’s clearly the best option here to blow up out of any Buccaneers’ receivers.
- Tez Johnson is a nice play, though, as he’s been the most productive AND efficient in a 2024 Jalen Coker-y kind of way, where Johnson has earned routes little by little and stayed on the field based on his burgeoning efficiency.
- Sean Tucker has been encroaching little by little on the Rachaad White role, and Bucky Irving is out here. I’m feeling a little less confident in White after a strong start to the full-time role, following Irving’s injury.
New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears (46.5)
New York Giants
🔒: Jaxson Dart
- Jaxson Dart has been pretty awesome the last month of the season, with three weeks out of the last four scoring 23 fantasy points or more.
- Sadly, it’s just Wan’Dale Robinson in the “PPR scam” role, but Theo Johnson has mastered the “only score a touchdown and not much else” play.
- With this running back workload split down the middle, it’s hard to start either Tyrone Tracy or Devin Singletary. If I were forced to, I would choose Singletary. The kids are calling him “motor”, you know…
Chicago Bears (-4.5)
🔒: The run game
- Normally, a running back would be set as a locked-in option, but with D’Andre Swift back, he’s going to have the 60/40 role in the run game with Kyle Monangai. The Giants are legitimately one of the worst rush defenses in the league, so pass volume could be shrunk quite a bit.
- Obviously, that stinks for the passing game, but Rome Odunze could be a squeaky wheel for the Bears to get him immediately involved. D.J. Moore and Colston Loveland are the less important (but flex-worthy) options here, along with Caleb Williams as more of the QB2.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers (38.5)
New Orleans Saints
🔒: N/A
- The wheels have completely fallen off for Alvin Kamara, but the Saints remain loyal in an “Miguel Cabrera in his final couple of seasons in Detroit” kind of way. He’s toxic for any kind of fantasy lineup.
- Without Rashid Shaheed, things could condense down to Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson, with a step down to Devaughn Vele as a tertiary receiver.
- Vele feels okay as a DFS punt play at receiver rather than playing Olave. I’d only really play any Saints in DFS in correlation with Rico Dowdle.
Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
🔒: Rico Dowdle
- Rico Dowdle smash spot loading…
- The only passing game piece you’re playing is Tetairoa McMillan (as long as he is active), who has every per-route metric stat you love, BUT the production. McMillan runs a ton of routes, is very efficient (1.85 YPRR), gets a ton of targets (22.6% TPRR), and has a 29% first-read target share. He’s just so far and away the best option they have in the passing game.
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets (37.5)
Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
- One of the lowest over/unders of the slate, the Browns should lean heavily on the run against a team that just traded away DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner. The Jets allow the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs, and without that interior presence, the boat could be springing new leaks.
- Harold Fannin is questionable, but he’s a low-end tight end play with David Njoku active. Fannin probably isn’t game for 80%+ routes, but he did run more routes (74% for Fannin to 58% for Njoku in Week 8) the last time both tight ends played together in the same game.
- Even if Cedric Tillman returns, these wide receivers are not it.
New York Jets
🔒: N/A
- There’s no starting quarterback named yet, which makes it a little tough. No matter who is under center, you’re starting Garrett Wilson as long as he’s active. He’s questionable with a knee injury but is expected to play.
- Last time we saw Breece Hall, he was torching the Bengals (what else is new?) to the tune of 133 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns are not the Bengals, and Hall’s touches will be managed a bit with Isaiah Davis involved. That said, I like Hall a bit more if Justin Fields is the quarterback, just because it allows the Jets to threaten the Browns’ defense another way, so they can’t stack the box and dare the Jets to pass, like they would with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (37.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
🔒: N/A
- No Brian Thomas, and we’re unsure about the immediate role of Jakobi Meyers in his first game as a Jaguar. Parker Washington retains a slot role even if Meyers takes a bunch of routes.
- Travis Etienne continues to have a large role and has distanced himself from Bhayshul Tuten despite a touchdown last week. Against the Texans, who are 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, Etienne is strictly a volume play.
Houston Texans
🔒: Nico Collins
- It was gross before with C.J. Stroud, but with Davis Mills? You’re just doing Nico Collins and possibly Dalton Schultz as a tight end streamer. Schultz is a moderately safe bet for targets in this offense and feels above the riffraff that is Christian Kirk, Xavier Hutchinson, and the rookies.
- Both Woody Marks and Nick Chubb are RB3 options, with Marks slightly ahead thanks to the receiving stuff. That said, this is one of the more disgusting backfields to sort through each week. It’s not like Marks is running away with anything, as among 123 running backs, Marks is 117th in Rush EPA (-21.9) this season.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (45.5)
Arizona Cardinals
🔒: Trey McBride
- Jacoby Brissett is the starter for the Cardinals, likely for the rest of the season. Obviously, a good thing for Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, who had one of the best games of his career against Dallas on MNF. Seattle allows the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Obviously, McBride is a must-start, but the hope for starting Harrison is that he continues to build on his momentum from last week, and the targets condense to those two in the offense.
- Emari Demercado saw 48% of the team’s rushing attempts last week and led the way for the Cardinals, but Jonathan Gannon said, “similar, but not the same… maybe a little bit different” as it pertains to their running back workload split this week. Who the hell knows what THAT means, but I’m not starting anybody here if I can help it.
Seattle Seahawks (-7)
🔒: Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- The real leverage point here is how much Rashid Shaheed ultimately plays… he should play extensive snaps as the rest of the Seahawks’ receiving corps is banged up and Shaheed has experience in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense from his time in New Orleans.
- This backfield is a coin flip. Kenneth Walker has the home run speed, but hasn’t shown it. The team loves Zach Charbonnet in the green zone, but he hasn’t been great there either. If we’re expecting a score, I’m playing Charbonnet over Walker. Both are high-end RB3 options and startable, but you have to know that the floor is much lower than anybody cares to admit.
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders (49.5)
Detroit Lions (-8.5)
🔒: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Do you think Dan Campbell is going to let this game slide by as just another game? Campbell is the most narrative-driven coach in the NFL, and the Lions face the Commanders, the team the Lions lost to at home in the NFC Divisional Round last season.
- This will be a game where, if the Lions get a big lead, they’ll have a longer leash than normal when it comes to playing their starters. The Commanders allow the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, so that’s a trifecta we’ll be banking on here.
- An “all hands on deck” game here with your Lions studs, plus Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. An elite DFS stacking opportunity here in tournaments.
Washington Commanders
🔒: N/A
- Marcus Mariota starts for Jayden Daniels, and with Terry McLaurin out after reaggravating his quad injury, it gets incredibly gross here to start anybody.
- Deebo Samuel is probably an okay start, but he’s somebody I’m not looking to for a ceiling game by any means.
- It’s one thing if the environment around him was great and Jacory Croskey-Merritt was struggling, but this isn’t a spot to start him, especially when you’ve got other players like Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols encroaching on him to bring back the dreaded three-back backfield. No thanks.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (49.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
🔒: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
- Your weekly reminder to start your studs.
San Francisco 49ers
- Another week, another “Ricky Pearsall is out” tweet.
- Brock Purdy is questionable, but Mac Jones has been named the starter regardless of whether Purdy is active.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (45.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers
🔒: N/A
- D.K. Metcalf is just outside the top-24 fantasy wide receivers at WR25, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. Metcalf has been very touchdown-dependent this season, with over 28% of his fantasy scoring coming from the touchdown. The average for a player varies, with 19-to-20% being the average for a wide receiver. Metcalf has the ninth-highest rate of any wide receiver, yet on the 13th-highest scoring offense in the league. The Chargers allow the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but play heavy zone, where Metcalf has done well. Still, I’m probably fading here in most spots.
- However, it’s a fine spot for Jaylen Warren, as he’s put Kenneth Gainwell in the rear-view mirror for the last month and change. Chargers are middle of the road against the run, and it’s the Steelers’ best way of controlling things and putting points on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
🔒: Justin Herbert, Oronde Gadsden
- Your passing game pieces are all very much in play here, minus Keenan Allen. He’s getting his routes managed with the team using fewer than 11 personnel. That’s likely the byproduct of not having both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater at the tackle spots.
- Kimani Vidal is a fine enough play, but it depends on whether you think the Steelers play the same as they did against the Colts or if they’re not great most other times. Environment aside, Vidal is in a good spot, but wouldn’t be shocked if Jaret Patterson remains in a complementary role.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers (45.5)
Philadelphia Eagles
🔒: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
- The Eagles’ hyper-condensed offense all get starting nods here, but you’re hoping the Jalen Hurts efficiency really carries over because if the Eagles have their way and can run and control things against a Packers team that lost its best weapon in Tucker Kraft, there won’t be much pass volume for all of the startable pass-catchers, including DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert in addition to Brown.
- Green Bay allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and Saquon Barkley is dealing with his own efficiency issues, but he’s still got to be started no matter what.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
🔒: Josh Jacobs
- Post Tucker Kraft, it’s Romeo Doubs as a WR3, and then Christian Watson as a boom-or-bust flex play. I don’t mind Luke Musgrave as a low-end streamer or DFS punt play at tight end, but the floor is zero here.
- I don’t think there’s a world where the Packers can push the Eagles to the degree that he’s fantasy-viable this week. I’m happy to be wrong, but it feels like a gross spot, even at home.
Kevin Tompkins is the co-owner of Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Kevin on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social and right here on Optimus Fantasy!
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