Tell your friends (just not your leaguemates until next week)
by Kevin Tompkins
Welcome to Week 7 of Angles & Leverage! Two more teams are on bye this week, and they are teams that NEED it in the worst way: the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Still, that leaves us with 15 games, one of which has already been played. If the Steelers/Bengals game was any indication of how Week 7 will go, we’re in for a FUN week.
We have some clarity and insight into what these teams are doing, and we’re no longer guessing about player utilization. While the NFL is a true week-to-week league, finding angles in micro- and macro-level decision-making is a massive part of fantasy football in the middle of the season.
In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts he has about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. We got to almost 3,000 words this week, because there’s a LOT to talk about!
NFL Week 7 Fantasy Football Angles & Leverage
Check out our Premium Tools – Use Code “OptimusFall” for 25% OFF 4 Months!
*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs*
*🔒 = Locked in to your lineup
Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (44.5 Over/Under)
Los Angeles Rams (-3)
🔒: Kyren Williams, Davante Adams
- With no Puka Nacua, Davante Adams retains his “X” receiver spot on the outside. Tutu Atwell is active after not playing last week and will man the other outside spot in 11 personnel.
- Who plays the “Z”? That’s Jordan Whittington, who has been the 1:1 replacement for Nacua. Whittington should see a ton of routes as the “Z” receiver and have the edge in target volume over Atwell.
- Atwell is a low-end flex, but could be okay if he hits a big play. He’s the Temu version of the Xavier Worthy play: barbelling short-area, manufactured YAC opportunities with downfield deep shots.
Jacksonville Jaguars
🔒: Brian Thomas
- Talk from the Jaguars this week about getting Travis Hunter some first-read targets, so we’ll see if anything comes of that. Hunter had a 29% first-read target rate in Week 1, but it’s been downhill from there in the following six weeks. In the last four weeks, Hunter has been above 12% just once—last week. It’s a good spot if you want to believe Liam Coen, who has been pretty sharp in how he’s managed his offenses going back to his days with the Rams.
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans (42.5)
New England Patriots (-7)
🔒: Drake Maye
- Maye has been awesome this season as a legitimate MVP candidate, but the surroundings never make it easy to either stack Maye up with anybody in DFS or try to capitalize on his success with a pass-catcher like Stefon Diggs or Hunter Henry. Both are very “eat your vegetables” plays, but I guess Diggs’ previous two weeks before last week’s dud make it easier to stomach that broccoli.
- *speaks into tape recorder* “TreVeyon Henderson watch, Week 7. Probably more Rhamondre Stevenson. Signing off until next week.”
Tennessee Titans
🔒: LOL
- The only reason to go to a Titans pass-catcher this week would be to play Elic Ayomanor in DFS with the “first game with the interim head coach” narrative in play. Calvin Ridley has been ruled out, so the receivers shift up with Van Jefferson likely slotting in as the sacrificial “X” and Ayomanor playing the “Z”.
- Tony Pollard is losing a little work to Tyjae Spears, and trade rumors are swirling on the Pollard front. What do you get if you win the Spears sweepstakes? You get a top running back on a team that’s likely to have the #1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings (43.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
🔒: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert
- The Eagles’ pass attempts have increased from last season, as Jalen Hurts has 30 or more pass attempts in three of his last four games. That trend likely continues in Minnesota. It’s a favorable matchup, so all of the main cogs are in play for this one. Minnesota seems game to push them vertically with their excellent group of receivers, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this game clears the 43.5 over/under comfortably.
Minnesota Vikings
- The hope for Jordan Addison is that Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell would not play, but he’s off the injury report. Addison is still a solid play, but his floor drops a little bit. Coming off of WR21 and WR19 weeks in his first two games, Addison is still a decent WR3/flex play for fantasy managers in a game I do think has some sneaky shootout potential.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (45.5)
Las Vegas Raiders
🔒: N/A
- This game feels like it could get ugly for the Raiders. The Chiefs now have their full complement of offensive weapons on the field, and Las Vegas still won’t have Brock Bowers. Michael Mayer is a chalky DFS play thanks to route volume (80% last week) and to the low salary.
- Jakobi Meyers is questionable after practicing in a limited fashion on Friday following two missed practices. He hasn’t been great this season, but the Raiders are pretty punchless as a team without Bowers and a full-strength Meyers.
- You’re starting Ashton Jeanty in most instances, but you’re just hoping you get the receiving runout for him to get you over double-digit points.
Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)
🔒: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy
- Full go for the full complement of pass-catchers for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are BACK.
- Rashee Rice will be the chalkiest DFS play of the week in a smash spot against the Raiders. He’s amazing. My 10th-place best ball teams can now rejoice as they get Rice back!
- Xavier Worthy is the ultimate leverage play this week, and the Chiefs finally feel stackable for DFS purposes.
- I just can’t get there with the running backs, as it’s one backfield role split three ways, though Isiah Pacheco had a season-high in routes and snaps last week.
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets (42.5)
Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
🔒: N/A
- To Rico, or not to Rico. That is the question. Head coach Dave Canales is playing this one close to the vest as far as which running back he will feature between Rico Dowdle and the returning Chuba Hubbard. Here’s how I played Rico Dowdle for the upcoming Week 7.
- Tetairoa McMillan would be in the “locked in” section, but he’s going to see a lot of Sauce Gardner. That caps his upside big time.
New York Jets
🔒: Breece Hall
- No Garrett Wilson (technically listed as doubtful) means there’s nobody you’re starting outside of maybe Mason Taylor at a thin tight end position.
- This game could be a “service academy game”, per Davis Mattek. A run-a-thon, so that’s why I’ve got Breece Hall as locked in.
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (46.5)
New Orleans Saints
🔒: Chris Olave
- Alvin Kamara saw a bit more involvement in the receiving game in Week 6, but he’s still far from trustworthy at this point. Especially with Kendre Miller looming in the background.
- Rashid Shaheed – your omnipresent DFS dart throw.
Chicago Bears (-4.5)
🔒: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze
- The Saints are very hit or miss on defense, but D’Andre Swift came out FIRING after the bye week with by far his best game of the season. He was RB6 after 175 yards from scrimmage and a score. He’s put the other backs in the dust, so I’m happy with his workload here.
- D.J. Moore went to the hospital following MNF and is now playing without an injury designation. Baller. He’s still a low-end flex play, though.
- The Colston Loveland/Cole Kmet tight end saga saw Loveland lead in routes, but Kmet played more overall snaps. Perhaps a flippening? More likely is a gross committee akin to the Bills with Loveland as the low-rest Dalton Kincaid and Kmet as the Dawson Knox.
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns (35.5)
Miami Dolphins
🔒: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle
- With 50-to-60 mph wind whipping around, I’m very much off any downfield players for Miami, so that strikes Darren Waller from consideration.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
🔒: Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin
- On the same token, Jerry Jeudy is not a recommended start because of his aDOT (13.0 yards on the season).
- Dillon Gabriel has targeted tight ends on 37.4% of his passes through two weeks, which would be the top percentage of target distribution in the NFL this season. Gabriel is also tied for the shortest aDOT (6.4 yards) in the NFL, so the wind will affect his passing less than other quarterbacks. For that reason, I’m very much in on Harold Fannin ahead of consensus this week.
New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos (39.5)
New York Giants
🔒: N/A
- We love Cam Skattebo, but this is a rough matchup for him. You’re starting him if you have him, so let’s hope he gets in the end zone. This game could be the “welcome to the NFL” game for Jaxson Dart on the road against a tough Broncos defense.
Denver Broncos (-7)
- Evan Engram‘s revenge game this week? Does running 51% of routes count as proper revenge? I’m not playing him in DFS, but I understand the play and respect the freedom as an American to make the play.
- Fire up your J.K. Dobbins against the Giants. Dobbins continues to fend off RJ Harvey and has a good matchup against the Giants, who allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs and 10th-most rushing yards.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48.5)
Indianapolis Colts
🔒: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren
- No Josh Downs (concussion), so the target tree does condense a bit to Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman despite a tougher matchup against the Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
- With Quentin Johnston returning, it adds one more player to push Oronde Gadsden down the totem pole. Gadsden will run the routes and may get some designed stuff, but with Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen also in play, the slice of pie gets a bit thinner for the Chargers’ pass-catchers.
- Hassan Haskins is questionable (chest), so Kimani Vidal gets even more runway and carte blanche as the lead runner.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals (44.5)
Green Bay Packers (-7)
🔒: Josh Jacobs
- Josh Jacobs is questionable but expected to play despite an illness and a calf injury that kept him on the injury report all week, in a limited capacity.
- Romeo Doubs looks slightly better than he has, so I don’t even mind him as a start. Of course, for upside purposes, you want Matthew Golden in your DFS lineups AND as a flex in managed leagues.
- There are lots of people wanting to make Tucker Kraft happen, and he’s a great player! But he’s way too touchdown-dependent for fantasy, especially when you factor in Green Bay’s uncondensed offense, which spreads limited targets.
Arizona Cardinals
🔒: Trey McBride
- Marvin Harrison cleared concussion protocol, so he’s a go. He’s still volatile.
- Any non-Trey McBride fantasy/DFS play for the Cardinals hinges on the availability of Kyler Murray. Honestly, if I’m rooting for a functional offense, I want Jacoby Brissett in at quarterback. We may get that wish as Murray was playing with the scout team at Friday’s practice, while Brissett was throwing to the first-team offense.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (54.5)
Washington Commanders
🔒: Jayden Daniels, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- For Washington, no Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel is also questionable. I’m hands off of this offense outside of the obvious Jayden Daniels start. If you want a route runner for DFS, Chris Moore and Zach Ertz are fine.
- Both Moore (32) and Ertz (34) are elderly, and I want that on the record.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
🔒: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Javonte Williams
- This offense is a goldmine for fantasy, so you’re starting the main players here. Let’s not mess with the secondary players (Jalen Tolbert, Ryan Flournoy, KaVontae Turpin) now that Lamb is back in the fold and (reportedly) not on a snap count.
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers (47.5)
Atlanta Falcons
🔒: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
- Outside of the top two guys, Kyle Pitts would be in consideration now that the 49ers are without Fred Warner for the rest of the season. The Falcons are so condensed with their personnel that you can’t really recommend anybody else here.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
🔒: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
- Mac Jones gets his fifth start in place of Brock Purdy, who is out.
- Can Kendrick Bourne make it a THIRD 142-yard game? I’m down to see if he can do it on national television. He’s going to be in tandem with George Kittle and a banged-up Jauan Jennings. Jennings was on the injury report with THREE injuries: an ankle, a shoulder, and five broken ribs. That’s a new one for me.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (52.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
🔒: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White
- No Chris Godwin, or Emeka Egbuka. YIKES. On top of that, Mike Evans is a shaky questionable at best.
- With all of those injuries, the Buccaneers have Sterling Shepard and two fresh faces on the menu for flex plays: Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson.
- Cade Otton is very much startable here for MNF, as he’s been a solid starter whenever multiple Buccaneers are injured or out.
Detroit Lions (-5.5)
🔒: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
- It’ll be interesting to see if Jameson Williams can build off of his 6-66-1 line from Week 6, but his big game probably raises more questions for his fantasy managers about whether to trust him in lineups. In a game with 52.5 over/under, it’s all hands on deck. This could be back-and-forth, so I want him in lineups.
- Same for David Montgomery, though the upside is a bit lower outside of touchdowns.
Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks (41.5)
Houston Texans
🔒: Nico Collins
- Will this be the week the Texans FINALLY get their young receivers meaningful routes? It feels like we’ve been waiting forever for the breakout Jayden Higgins game, and that could be in the cards with the Texans post-bye.
- The Seahawks are only favored by three points, but the Texans are propped up by their defense and a potent offense, as seen in their 44-10 blowout of the undermanned Ravens in Week 5.
- Because of that, I’d lean towards Woody Marks over Nick Chubb if I have to pick my poison in this backfield. I did call him AFC Rachaad White not too long ago, and I think that comparison is very apt.
Seattle Seahawks (-3)
- I’m curious whether the Seahawks will keep going with AJ Barner seeing the field quite a bit more than Elijah Arroyo, or if there will be a more even split. Barner has been fantasy relevant over four of the past five weeks with at least a touchdown or 71 receiving yards in those games. He does suffer from Dalton Kincaid syndrome, as a player who doesn’t have a path to more routes outside of injury.
- I’m choosing neither of the Seahawks’ running backs this week. Nope. Not going to make me choose. It’s the devil’s split that we saw with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary a few years ago with the Bills: a pure split that cripples both players’ fantasy value.
Kevin Tompkins is a co-owner of Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Kevin on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social and right here on Optimus Fantasy!
Welcome to Week 7 of Angles & Leverage! Two more teams are on bye this week, and they are teams that NEED it in the worst way: the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Still, that leaves us with 15 games, one of which has already been played. If the Steelers/Bengals game was any indication of how Week 7 will go, we’re in for a FUN week.
We have some clarity and insight into what these teams are doing, and we’re no longer guessing about player utilization. While the NFL is a true week-to-week league, finding angles in micro- and macro-level decision-making is a massive part of fantasy football in the middle of the season.
In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts he has about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. We got to almost 3,000 words this week, because there’s a LOT to talk about!
NFL Week 7 Fantasy Football Angles & Leverage
Check out our Premium Tools – Use Code “OptimusFall” for 25% OFF 4 Months!
*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs*
*🔒 = Locked in to your lineup
Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (44.5 Over/Under)
Los Angeles Rams (-3)
🔒: Kyren Williams, Davante Adams
- With no Puka Nacua, Davante Adams retains his “X” receiver spot on the outside. Tutu Atwell is active after not playing last week and will man the other outside spot in 11 personnel.
- Who plays the “Z”? That’s Jordan Whittington, who has been the 1:1 replacement for Nacua. Whittington should see a ton of routes as the “Z” receiver and have the edge in target volume over Atwell.
- Atwell is a low-end flex, but could be okay if he hits a big play. He’s the Temu version of the Xavier Worthy play: barbelling short-area, manufactured YAC opportunities with downfield deep shots.
Jacksonville Jaguars
🔒: Brian Thomas
- Talk from the Jaguars this week about getting Travis Hunter some first-read targets, so we’ll see if anything comes of that. Hunter had a 29% first-read target rate in Week 1, but it’s been downhill from there in the following six weeks. In the last four weeks, Hunter has been above 12% just once—last week. It’s a good spot if you want to believe Liam Coen, who has been pretty sharp in how he’s managed his offenses going back to his days with the Rams.
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans (42.5)
New England Patriots (-7)
🔒: Drake Maye
- Maye has been awesome this season as a legitimate MVP candidate, but the surroundings never make it easy to either stack Maye up with anybody in DFS or try to capitalize on his success with a pass-catcher like Stefon Diggs or Hunter Henry. Both are very “eat your vegetables” plays, but I guess Diggs’ previous two weeks before last week’s dud make it easier to stomach that broccoli.
- *speaks into tape recorder* “TreVeyon Henderson watch, Week 7. Probably more Rhamondre Stevenson. Signing off until next week.”
Tennessee Titans
🔒: LOL
- The only reason to go to a Titans pass-catcher this week would be to play Elic Ayomanor in DFS with the “first game with the interim head coach” narrative in play. Calvin Ridley has been ruled out, so the receivers shift up with Van Jefferson likely slotting in as the sacrificial “X” and Ayomanor playing the “Z”.
- Tony Pollard is losing a little work to Tyjae Spears, and trade rumors are swirling on the Pollard front. What do you get if you win the Spears sweepstakes? You get a top running back on a team that’s likely to have the #1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings (43.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
🔒: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert
- The Eagles’ pass attempts have increased from last season, as Jalen Hurts has 30 or more pass attempts in three of his last four games. That trend likely continues in Minnesota. It’s a favorable matchup, so all of the main cogs are in play for this one. Minnesota seems game to push them vertically with their excellent group of receivers, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this game clears the 43.5 over/under comfortably.
Minnesota Vikings
- The hope for Jordan Addison is that Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell would not play, but he’s off the injury report. Addison is still a solid play, but his floor drops a little bit. Coming off of WR21 and WR19 weeks in his first two games, Addison is still a decent WR3/flex play for fantasy managers in a game I do think has some sneaky shootout potential.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (45.5)
Las Vegas Raiders
🔒: N/A
- This game feels like it could get ugly for the Raiders. The Chiefs now have their full complement of offensive weapons on the field, and Las Vegas still won’t have Brock Bowers. Michael Mayer is a chalky DFS play thanks to route volume (80% last week) and to the low salary.
- Jakobi Meyers is questionable after practicing in a limited fashion on Friday following two missed practices. He hasn’t been great this season, but the Raiders are pretty punchless as a team without Bowers and a full-strength Meyers.
- You’re starting Ashton Jeanty in most instances, but you’re just hoping you get the receiving runout for him to get you over double-digit points.
Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)
🔒: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy
- Full go for the full complement of pass-catchers for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are BACK.
- Rashee Rice will be the chalkiest DFS play of the week in a smash spot against the Raiders. He’s amazing. My 10th-place best ball teams can now rejoice as they get Rice back!
- Xavier Worthy is the ultimate leverage play this week, and the Chiefs finally feel stackable for DFS purposes.
- I just can’t get there with the running backs, as it’s one backfield role split three ways, though Isiah Pacheco had a season-high in routes and snaps last week.
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets (42.5)
Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
🔒: N/A
- To Rico, or not to Rico. That is the question. Head coach Dave Canales is playing this one close to the vest as far as which running back he will feature between Rico Dowdle and the returning Chuba Hubbard. Here’s how I played Rico Dowdle for the upcoming Week 7.
- Tetairoa McMillan would be in the “locked in” section, but he’s going to see a lot of Sauce Gardner. That caps his upside big time.
New York Jets
🔒: Breece Hall
- No Garrett Wilson (technically listed as doubtful) means there’s nobody you’re starting outside of maybe Mason Taylor at a thin tight end position.
- This game could be a “service academy game”, per Davis Mattek. A run-a-thon, so that’s why I’ve got Breece Hall as locked in.
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (46.5)
New Orleans Saints
🔒: Chris Olave
- Alvin Kamara saw a bit more involvement in the receiving game in Week 6, but he’s still far from trustworthy at this point. Especially with Kendre Miller looming in the background.
- Rashid Shaheed – your omnipresent DFS dart throw.
Chicago Bears (-4.5)
🔒: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze
- The Saints are very hit or miss on defense, but D’Andre Swift came out FIRING after the bye week with by far his best game of the season. He was RB6 after 175 yards from scrimmage and a score. He’s put the other backs in the dust, so I’m happy with his workload here.
- D.J. Moore went to the hospital following MNF and is now playing without an injury designation. Baller. He’s still a low-end flex play, though.
- The Colston Loveland/Cole Kmet tight end saga saw Loveland lead in routes, but Kmet played more overall snaps. Perhaps a flippening? More likely is a gross committee akin to the Bills with Loveland as the low-rest Dalton Kincaid and Kmet as the Dawson Knox.
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns (35.5)
Miami Dolphins
🔒: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle
- With 50-to-60 mph wind whipping around, I’m very much off any downfield players for Miami, so that strikes Darren Waller from consideration.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
🔒: Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin
- On the same token, Jerry Jeudy is not a recommended start because of his aDOT (13.0 yards on the season).
- Dillon Gabriel has targeted tight ends on 37.4% of his passes through two weeks, which would be the top percentage of target distribution in the NFL this season. Gabriel is also tied for the shortest aDOT (6.4 yards) in the NFL, so the wind will affect his passing less than other quarterbacks. For that reason, I’m very much in on Harold Fannin ahead of consensus this week.
New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos (39.5)
New York Giants
🔒: N/A
- We love Cam Skattebo, but this is a rough matchup for him. You’re starting him if you have him, so let’s hope he gets in the end zone. This game could be the “welcome to the NFL” game for Jaxson Dart on the road against a tough Broncos defense.
Denver Broncos (-7)
- Evan Engram‘s revenge game this week? Does running 51% of routes count as proper revenge? I’m not playing him in DFS, but I understand the play and respect the freedom as an American to make the play.
- Fire up your J.K. Dobbins against the Giants. Dobbins continues to fend off RJ Harvey and has a good matchup against the Giants, who allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs and 10th-most rushing yards.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48.5)
Indianapolis Colts
🔒: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren
- No Josh Downs (concussion), so the target tree does condense a bit to Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman despite a tougher matchup against the Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
- With Quentin Johnston returning, it adds one more player to push Oronde Gadsden down the totem pole. Gadsden will run the routes and may get some designed stuff, but with Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen also in play, the slice of pie gets a bit thinner for the Chargers’ pass-catchers.
- Hassan Haskins is questionable (chest), so Kimani Vidal gets even more runway and carte blanche as the lead runner.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals (44.5)
Green Bay Packers (-7)
🔒: Josh Jacobs
- Josh Jacobs is questionable but expected to play despite an illness and a calf injury that kept him on the injury report all week, in a limited capacity.
- Romeo Doubs looks slightly better than he has, so I don’t even mind him as a start. Of course, for upside purposes, you want Matthew Golden in your DFS lineups AND as a flex in managed leagues.
- There are lots of people wanting to make Tucker Kraft happen, and he’s a great player! But he’s way too touchdown-dependent for fantasy, especially when you factor in Green Bay’s uncondensed offense, which spreads limited targets.
Arizona Cardinals
🔒: Trey McBride
- Marvin Harrison cleared concussion protocol, so he’s a go. He’s still volatile.
- Any non-Trey McBride fantasy/DFS play for the Cardinals hinges on the availability of Kyler Murray. Honestly, if I’m rooting for a functional offense, I want Jacoby Brissett in at quarterback. We may get that wish as Murray was playing with the scout team at Friday’s practice, while Brissett was throwing to the first-team offense.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (54.5)
Washington Commanders
🔒: Jayden Daniels, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- For Washington, no Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel is also questionable. I’m hands off of this offense outside of the obvious Jayden Daniels start. If you want a route runner for DFS, Chris Moore and Zach Ertz are fine.
- Both Moore (32) and Ertz (34) are elderly, and I want that on the record.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
🔒: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Javonte Williams
- This offense is a goldmine for fantasy, so you’re starting the main players here. Let’s not mess with the secondary players (Jalen Tolbert, Ryan Flournoy, KaVontae Turpin) now that Lamb is back in the fold and (reportedly) not on a snap count.
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers (47.5)
Atlanta Falcons
🔒: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
- Outside of the top two guys, Kyle Pitts would be in consideration now that the 49ers are without Fred Warner for the rest of the season. The Falcons are so condensed with their personnel that you can’t really recommend anybody else here.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
🔒: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
- Mac Jones gets his fifth start in place of Brock Purdy, who is out.
- Can Kendrick Bourne make it a THIRD 142-yard game? I’m down to see if he can do it on national television. He’s going to be in tandem with George Kittle and a banged-up Jauan Jennings. Jennings was on the injury report with THREE injuries: an ankle, a shoulder, and five broken ribs. That’s a new one for me.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (52.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
🔒: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White
- No Chris Godwin, or Emeka Egbuka. YIKES. On top of that, Mike Evans is a shaky questionable at best.
- With all of those injuries, the Buccaneers have Sterling Shepard and two fresh faces on the menu for flex plays: Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson.
- Cade Otton is very much startable here for MNF, as he’s been a solid starter whenever multiple Buccaneers are injured or out.
Detroit Lions (-5.5)
🔒: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
- It’ll be interesting to see if Jameson Williams can build off of his 6-66-1 line from Week 6, but his big game probably raises more questions for his fantasy managers about whether to trust him in lineups. In a game with 52.5 over/under, it’s all hands on deck. This could be back-and-forth, so I want him in lineups.
- Same for David Montgomery, though the upside is a bit lower outside of touchdowns.
Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks (41.5)
Houston Texans
🔒: Nico Collins
- Will this be the week the Texans FINALLY get their young receivers meaningful routes? It feels like we’ve been waiting forever for the breakout Jayden Higgins game, and that could be in the cards with the Texans post-bye.
- The Seahawks are only favored by three points, but the Texans are propped up by their defense and a potent offense, as seen in their 44-10 blowout of the undermanned Ravens in Week 5.
- Because of that, I’d lean towards Woody Marks over Nick Chubb if I have to pick my poison in this backfield. I did call him AFC Rachaad White not too long ago, and I think that comparison is very apt.
Seattle Seahawks (-3)
- I’m curious whether the Seahawks will keep going with AJ Barner seeing the field quite a bit more than Elijah Arroyo, or if there will be a more even split. Barner has been fantasy relevant over four of the past five weeks with at least a touchdown or 71 receiving yards in those games. He does suffer from Dalton Kincaid syndrome, as a player who doesn’t have a path to more routes outside of injury.
- I’m choosing neither of the Seahawks’ running backs this week. Nope. Not going to make me choose. It’s the devil’s split that we saw with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary a few years ago with the Bills: a pure split that cripples both players’ fantasy value.
Kevin Tompkins is a co-owner of Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Kevin on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social and right here on Optimus Fantasy!
Welcome to Week 7 of Angles & Leverage! Two more teams are on bye this week, and they are teams that NEED it in the worst way: the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Still, that leaves us with 15 games, one of which has already been played. If the Steelers/Bengals game was any indication of how Week 7 will go, we’re in for a FUN week.
We have some clarity and insight into what these teams are doing, and we’re no longer guessing about player utilization. While the NFL is a true week-to-week league, finding angles in micro- and macro-level decision-making is a massive part of fantasy football in the middle of the season.
In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts he has about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. We got to almost 3,000 words this week, because there’s a LOT to talk about!
NFL Week 7 Fantasy Football Angles & Leverage
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*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs*
*🔒 = Locked in to your lineup
Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (44.5 Over/Under)
Los Angeles Rams (-3)
🔒: Kyren Williams, Davante Adams
- With no Puka Nacua, Davante Adams retains his “X” receiver spot on the outside. Tutu Atwell is active after not playing last week and will man the other outside spot in 11 personnel.
- Who plays the “Z”? That’s Jordan Whittington, who has been the 1:1 replacement for Nacua. Whittington should see a ton of routes as the “Z” receiver and have the edge in target volume over Atwell.
- Atwell is a low-end flex, but could be okay if he hits a big play. He’s the Temu version of the Xavier Worthy play: barbelling short-area, manufactured YAC opportunities with downfield deep shots.
Jacksonville Jaguars
🔒: Brian Thomas
- Talk from the Jaguars this week about getting Travis Hunter some first-read targets, so we’ll see if anything comes of that. Hunter had a 29% first-read target rate in Week 1, but it’s been downhill from there in the following six weeks. In the last four weeks, Hunter has been above 12% just once—last week. It’s a good spot if you want to believe Liam Coen, who has been pretty sharp in how he’s managed his offenses going back to his days with the Rams.
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans (42.5)
New England Patriots (-7)
🔒: Drake Maye
- Maye has been awesome this season as a legitimate MVP candidate, but the surroundings never make it easy to either stack Maye up with anybody in DFS or try to capitalize on his success with a pass-catcher like Stefon Diggs or Hunter Henry. Both are very “eat your vegetables” plays, but I guess Diggs’ previous two weeks before last week’s dud make it easier to stomach that broccoli.
- *speaks into tape recorder* “TreVeyon Henderson watch, Week 7. Probably more Rhamondre Stevenson. Signing off until next week.”
Tennessee Titans
🔒: LOL
- The only reason to go to a Titans pass-catcher this week would be to play Elic Ayomanor in DFS with the “first game with the interim head coach” narrative in play. Calvin Ridley has been ruled out, so the receivers shift up with Van Jefferson likely slotting in as the sacrificial “X” and Ayomanor playing the “Z”.
- Tony Pollard is losing a little work to Tyjae Spears, and trade rumors are swirling on the Pollard front. What do you get if you win the Spears sweepstakes? You get a top running back on a team that’s likely to have the #1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings (43.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
🔒: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert
- The Eagles’ pass attempts have increased from last season, as Jalen Hurts has 30 or more pass attempts in three of his last four games. That trend likely continues in Minnesota. It’s a favorable matchup, so all of the main cogs are in play for this one. Minnesota seems game to push them vertically with their excellent group of receivers, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this game clears the 43.5 over/under comfortably.
Minnesota Vikings
- The hope for Jordan Addison is that Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell would not play, but he’s off the injury report. Addison is still a solid play, but his floor drops a little bit. Coming off of WR21 and WR19 weeks in his first two games, Addison is still a decent WR3/flex play for fantasy managers in a game I do think has some sneaky shootout potential.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (45.5)
Las Vegas Raiders
🔒: N/A
- This game feels like it could get ugly for the Raiders. The Chiefs now have their full complement of offensive weapons on the field, and Las Vegas still won’t have Brock Bowers. Michael Mayer is a chalky DFS play thanks to route volume (80% last week) and to the low salary.
- Jakobi Meyers is questionable after practicing in a limited fashion on Friday following two missed practices. He hasn’t been great this season, but the Raiders are pretty punchless as a team without Bowers and a full-strength Meyers.
- You’re starting Ashton Jeanty in most instances, but you’re just hoping you get the receiving runout for him to get you over double-digit points.
Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)
🔒: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy
- Full go for the full complement of pass-catchers for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are BACK.
- Rashee Rice will be the chalkiest DFS play of the week in a smash spot against the Raiders. He’s amazing. My 10th-place best ball teams can now rejoice as they get Rice back!
- Xavier Worthy is the ultimate leverage play this week, and the Chiefs finally feel stackable for DFS purposes.
- I just can’t get there with the running backs, as it’s one backfield role split three ways, though Isiah Pacheco had a season-high in routes and snaps last week.
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets (42.5)
Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
🔒: N/A
- To Rico, or not to Rico. That is the question. Head coach Dave Canales is playing this one close to the vest as far as which running back he will feature between Rico Dowdle and the returning Chuba Hubbard. Here’s how I played Rico Dowdle for the upcoming Week 7.
- Tetairoa McMillan would be in the “locked in” section, but he’s going to see a lot of Sauce Gardner. That caps his upside big time.
New York Jets
🔒: Breece Hall
- No Garrett Wilson (technically listed as doubtful) means there’s nobody you’re starting outside of maybe Mason Taylor at a thin tight end position.
- This game could be a “service academy game”, per Davis Mattek. A run-a-thon, so that’s why I’ve got Breece Hall as locked in.
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (46.5)
New Orleans Saints
🔒: Chris Olave
- Alvin Kamara saw a bit more involvement in the receiving game in Week 6, but he’s still far from trustworthy at this point. Especially with Kendre Miller looming in the background.
- Rashid Shaheed – your omnipresent DFS dart throw.
Chicago Bears (-4.5)
🔒: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze
- The Saints are very hit or miss on defense, but D’Andre Swift came out FIRING after the bye week with by far his best game of the season. He was RB6 after 175 yards from scrimmage and a score. He’s put the other backs in the dust, so I’m happy with his workload here.
- D.J. Moore went to the hospital following MNF and is now playing without an injury designation. Baller. He’s still a low-end flex play, though.
- The Colston Loveland/Cole Kmet tight end saga saw Loveland lead in routes, but Kmet played more overall snaps. Perhaps a flippening? More likely is a gross committee akin to the Bills with Loveland as the low-rest Dalton Kincaid and Kmet as the Dawson Knox.
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns (35.5)
Miami Dolphins
🔒: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle
- With 50-to-60 mph wind whipping around, I’m very much off any downfield players for Miami, so that strikes Darren Waller from consideration.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
🔒: Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin
- On the same token, Jerry Jeudy is not a recommended start because of his aDOT (13.0 yards on the season).
- Dillon Gabriel has targeted tight ends on 37.4% of his passes through two weeks, which would be the top percentage of target distribution in the NFL this season. Gabriel is also tied for the shortest aDOT (6.4 yards) in the NFL, so the wind will affect his passing less than other quarterbacks. For that reason, I’m very much in on Harold Fannin ahead of consensus this week.
New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos (39.5)
New York Giants
🔒: N/A
- We love Cam Skattebo, but this is a rough matchup for him. You’re starting him if you have him, so let’s hope he gets in the end zone. This game could be the “welcome to the NFL” game for Jaxson Dart on the road against a tough Broncos defense.
Denver Broncos (-7)
- Evan Engram‘s revenge game this week? Does running 51% of routes count as proper revenge? I’m not playing him in DFS, but I understand the play and respect the freedom as an American to make the play.
- Fire up your J.K. Dobbins against the Giants. Dobbins continues to fend off RJ Harvey and has a good matchup against the Giants, who allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs and 10th-most rushing yards.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48.5)
Indianapolis Colts
🔒: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren
- No Josh Downs (concussion), so the target tree does condense a bit to Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman despite a tougher matchup against the Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
- With Quentin Johnston returning, it adds one more player to push Oronde Gadsden down the totem pole. Gadsden will run the routes and may get some designed stuff, but with Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen also in play, the slice of pie gets a bit thinner for the Chargers’ pass-catchers.
- Hassan Haskins is questionable (chest), so Kimani Vidal gets even more runway and carte blanche as the lead runner.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals (44.5)
Green Bay Packers (-7)
🔒: Josh Jacobs
- Josh Jacobs is questionable but expected to play despite an illness and a calf injury that kept him on the injury report all week, in a limited capacity.
- Romeo Doubs looks slightly better than he has, so I don’t even mind him as a start. Of course, for upside purposes, you want Matthew Golden in your DFS lineups AND as a flex in managed leagues.
- There are lots of people wanting to make Tucker Kraft happen, and he’s a great player! But he’s way too touchdown-dependent for fantasy, especially when you factor in Green Bay’s uncondensed offense, which spreads limited targets.
Arizona Cardinals
🔒: Trey McBride
- Marvin Harrison cleared concussion protocol, so he’s a go. He’s still volatile.
- Any non-Trey McBride fantasy/DFS play for the Cardinals hinges on the availability of Kyler Murray. Honestly, if I’m rooting for a functional offense, I want Jacoby Brissett in at quarterback. We may get that wish as Murray was playing with the scout team at Friday’s practice, while Brissett was throwing to the first-team offense.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (54.5)
Washington Commanders
🔒: Jayden Daniels, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- For Washington, no Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel is also questionable. I’m hands off of this offense outside of the obvious Jayden Daniels start. If you want a route runner for DFS, Chris Moore and Zach Ertz are fine.
- Both Moore (32) and Ertz (34) are elderly, and I want that on the record.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
🔒: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Javonte Williams
- This offense is a goldmine for fantasy, so you’re starting the main players here. Let’s not mess with the secondary players (Jalen Tolbert, Ryan Flournoy, KaVontae Turpin) now that Lamb is back in the fold and (reportedly) not on a snap count.
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers (47.5)
Atlanta Falcons
🔒: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
- Outside of the top two guys, Kyle Pitts would be in consideration now that the 49ers are without Fred Warner for the rest of the season. The Falcons are so condensed with their personnel that you can’t really recommend anybody else here.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
🔒: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
- Mac Jones gets his fifth start in place of Brock Purdy, who is out.
- Can Kendrick Bourne make it a THIRD 142-yard game? I’m down to see if he can do it on national television. He’s going to be in tandem with George Kittle and a banged-up Jauan Jennings. Jennings was on the injury report with THREE injuries: an ankle, a shoulder, and five broken ribs. That’s a new one for me.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (52.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
🔒: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White
- No Chris Godwin, or Emeka Egbuka. YIKES. On top of that, Mike Evans is a shaky questionable at best.
- With all of those injuries, the Buccaneers have Sterling Shepard and two fresh faces on the menu for flex plays: Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson.
- Cade Otton is very much startable here for MNF, as he’s been a solid starter whenever multiple Buccaneers are injured or out.
Detroit Lions (-5.5)
🔒: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
- It’ll be interesting to see if Jameson Williams can build off of his 6-66-1 line from Week 6, but his big game probably raises more questions for his fantasy managers about whether to trust him in lineups. In a game with 52.5 over/under, it’s all hands on deck. This could be back-and-forth, so I want him in lineups.
- Same for David Montgomery, though the upside is a bit lower outside of touchdowns.
Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks (41.5)
Houston Texans
🔒: Nico Collins
- Will this be the week the Texans FINALLY get their young receivers meaningful routes? It feels like we’ve been waiting forever for the breakout Jayden Higgins game, and that could be in the cards with the Texans post-bye.
- The Seahawks are only favored by three points, but the Texans are propped up by their defense and a potent offense, as seen in their 44-10 blowout of the undermanned Ravens in Week 5.
- Because of that, I’d lean towards Woody Marks over Nick Chubb if I have to pick my poison in this backfield. I did call him AFC Rachaad White not too long ago, and I think that comparison is very apt.
Seattle Seahawks (-3)
- I’m curious whether the Seahawks will keep going with AJ Barner seeing the field quite a bit more than Elijah Arroyo, or if there will be a more even split. Barner has been fantasy relevant over four of the past five weeks with at least a touchdown or 71 receiving yards in those games. He does suffer from Dalton Kincaid syndrome, as a player who doesn’t have a path to more routes outside of injury.
- I’m choosing neither of the Seahawks’ running backs this week. Nope. Not going to make me choose. It’s the devil’s split that we saw with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary a few years ago with the Bills: a pure split that cripples both players’ fantasy value.
Kevin Tompkins is a co-owner of Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Kevin on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social and right here on Optimus Fantasy!
