Welcome to Week 9 of Angles & Leverage! We’re post-“BYE-mageddon,” and I hope everybody made it out in one piece. We have a normal number of teams (four) on bye this week, with the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all taking a well-deserved week off.

We have some clarity and insight into what these teams are doing, and we’re no longer guessing about player utilization. While the NFL is a true week-to-week league, identifying angles in micro- and macro-level decision-making is a significant part of fantasy football during the middle of the season.

In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts I have about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. We got to almost 3,000 words this week, because there’s a LOT to talk about!

NFL Week 9 Fantasy Football Angles & Leverage

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*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs*

*🔒 = Locked in to your lineup

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (47.5 Over/Under)

Minnesota Vikings

🔒: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison

• It’s tough to start T.J. Hockenson, considering how far he’s fallen behind Jefferson and Addison. He feels like the K.J. Osborn in the target tree when it was Jefferson and Adam Thielen from years ago. The target floor is almost non-existent for whatever reason. That floor only lowers with J.J. McCarthy back.
• Aaron Jones by a nose over Jordan Mason, just because if the Vikings get game-scripted out of this game, it’s going to be MUCH more Jones than Mason.

Detroit Lions (-8.5)

🔒: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

• Big squeaky wheel game for Jameson Williams here, where, reportedly, offensive coordinator John Morton has “consulted” with Williams to get him the ball. No team is as tuned into narratives and squeaky wheels as the Lions.
• Sam LaPorta has also been on a milk carton at times this season, so post-bye, this is a good sport, especially if you’re stacking the Lions in DFS. He’s not going to be owned.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (43.5)

Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)

🔒: Justin Herbert, Kimani Vidal, Ladd McConkey

• I wrote quite a bit about Quentin Johnston this week, and while we all want to write his eulogy, the answer to “what becomes of Johnston?” falls between his first few weeks of the season and last week’s zero targets. He’s not going to feel like a great start, but he could get immediate touches to show people he’s not dead. We’re going to look at him in the first 20 minutes of the early games and see he’s 4-45 and be like, “Oh, okay.”
• I tinkered with Oronde Gadsden II being a “locked-in” player, but the potential game script could be the factor here, despite the Chargers having a top-four pass rate over expected team. Still, Gadsden is probably a must-start player here.
• Kimani Vidal as a clear top-ten play with Hassan Haskins out… what a difference a season makes.

Tennessee Titans

🔒: N/A

• Chimere Dike is the efficiency play here over Elic Ayomanor. But let’s face it: no Titans player feels great.
• Even Tyjae Spears is encroaching on Tony Pollard’s workload. It’s not anything where you “have” to start Spears, but ultimately, we’re talking about half of a bottom-six backfield in terms of EPA per rush attempt. I’d probably start Spears over Pollard, just so that’s on the record.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (50.5)

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

🔒: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren

• The Colts don’t change too much when healthy. Your typical “locked-in” guys, plus Josh Downs as a slot-only player, and then Alec Pierce is moderately viable in daily fantasy sports (DFS). Can’t wait to see how they score 30+ points this week!

Pittsburgh Steelers

🔒: D.K. Metcalf

• It’s Metcalf and Jaylen Warren for the Steelers. Warren has gapped Kenneth Gainwell in terms of utilization. Nobody else approaches any kind of comfort level in the passing game besides Metcalf.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots (44.5)

Atlanta Falcons

🔒: Bijan Robinson, Drake London

• The same story as always – Bijan Robinson and Drake London have such a huge consolidation of work in this offense that anybody else rarely gets not just touches, but production on top of that. Kyle Pitts is probably the third piece you moderately feel okay about, but it’s Tyler Allgeier (in a positive game script) and Darnell Mooney (in a negative game script) after that.
• Michael Penix Jr. is expected to start, so the offense is in the ballpark of where they were before their Hindenburg of a game against the Miami Dolphins.

New England Patriots (-5.5)

🔒: Drake Maye

• We’re all begging, crying, throwing up, etc. for this to be the TreVeyon Henderson game with Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) out for this game. The likelier scenario is Henderson as the lead, but Terrell Jennings and/or D’Ernest Johnson mixing in too. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is not shy about mixing in other backs; hell, he did it with Antonio Gibson getting meaningful touches before he went down for the season.
• I just cannot see a world, after Henderson’s workload has been managed to such a degree through seven weeks, where he automatically gets 60-70% of touches because the guy in front of him was hurt. Is Henderson going to get the bulk of the work? Probably. It’s the likeliest of outcomes. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see a guy like Johnson, who has been on Arizona’s practice squad, play one game for the Cardinals two weeks ago, and was added to the Patriots’ practice squad and then elevated.
• Kayshon Boutte and Stefon Diggs feel fine here, but can Diggs get ramped up to a usable routes percentage? Diggs was at 65% in Week 8 against Cleveland. We need an upward climb.

Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers (44.5)

Carolina Panthers

🔒: Tetairoa McMillan

• It’s McMillan, and you can forget about the rest here, including Bryce Young.
• Rico Dowdle has been all but outright named the starter, but we’re all expecting it. After hearing Chuba Hubbard talked up so glowingly by head coach Dave Canales, Hubbard just isn’t going away or going to zero for Dowdle. Hubbard will be annoying enough, but ultimately, it’s a game the Packers are favored by almost two full touchdowns. Luckily, Dowdle can still have success as he’s been amazingly efficient this season.

Green Bay Packers (-12.5)

🔒: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft

• Quietly, Tucker Kraft and Romeo Doubs have consolidated a decent chunk of the workload over the last three weeks, with 42% of targets in Week 6, 62% in Week 7 and 42% in last week against the Steelers. If you’re going to start any Packers’ pass-catcher, it’s those two.
• Christian Watson ran 65% routes per dropback in his 2025 debut, with four targets and 85 yards. The fact that he was immediately prioritized over Matthew Golden definitely isn’t great! We’ll see if this evolves, but I don’t feel confident starting either OR quarterback Jordan Love.

Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans (39.5)

Denver Broncos

🔒: Courtland Sutton

• In a tough matchup for any Broncos player, I’m sitting Bo Nix if I can help it, but Troy Franklin is also in play as the clear second route-runner after Sutton. No Marvin Mims Jr. (concussion), so we’ll see much more Pat Bryant, too.
• RJ Harvey‘s three-touchdown felt much more situational than anything we could bring with us to the following week, plus J.K. Dobbins’ role was extremely strong and has been very consistent this season. I’d just be wary about overreaction to the Harvey situation because we haven’t gotten any evidence to support him getting a workload increase. If Tyler Badie is phased out of his sporadic receiving role, then maybe you can make a case for Harvey. Outside of that, it’s Dobbins with Harvey as a “break glass in case of emergency” flex.

Houston Texans (-1.5)

🔒: Nico Collins

• Woody Marks is your less-efficient on the ground, better receiver of this backfield split, where you’re getting some production, but not “league-winning” production that we all want.
• This game has a 39.5 over/under, the lowest of Week 8. Outside of Nico Collins, you’re closing your eyes and throwing a dart, hoping you don’t kill somebody. Or be killed. Collins being back likely pushes down the progress in earning more routes for Jayden Higgins because Nick Caley apparently loves to get Xavier Hutchinson on the field. For whatever reason.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants (48.5)

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

🔒: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle

• After the two locked-in players, Jauan Jennings is probably the only realistic start here for the 49ers.
• Can we get proof of life from Ricky Pearsall?
• Mac Jones is starting again, and the bloom is a bit off the rose here with Jones, as we’re remembering that he is indeed “Mac Jones.” He can probably be okay against a pretty ungood New York Football (allegedly) Giants’ team, but I don’t think I have enough courage to back up that statement.

New York Giants

🔒: N/A

• No Cam Skattebo (out for the season), no Malik Nabers… please explain to me why I should care about any other options? Even Wan’Dale Robinson is such a capped, situational play for fantasy purposes.
• Without Skattebo, we’re looking at a rehash of Tyrone Tracy being the full-time starting running back and Devin Singletary backing him up. Singletary is an adept pass protector, so he’s going to play a bunch of snaps still. We’ll likely see Tracy taking some early down work and some third down work, plus long down and distance, where his receiving skills can shine. All in all, it’s a low-upside backfield for the rest of the season.

Chicago Bears vs. Cincinnati Bengals (51.5)

Chicago Bears (-2.5)

🔒: Kyle Monangai, Rome Odunze

• Kyle Monangai is the cheap chalk running back play of our dreams in DFS this week, and with good reason. No D’Andre Swift, no Roschon Johnson, and they’re playing the Bengals, who have allowed the following:
  • 198 rushing yards on 25 RB carries to the Jets in Week 8
  • 141 rushing yards on 19 RB carries to the Steelers in Week 7
  • 105 rushing yards on 22 RB carries to the Packers in Week 6
  • 119 rushing yards on 30 RB carries to the Lions in Week 5
  • 163 rushing yards on 31 RB carries to the Broncos in Week 4
  • 165 rushing yards on 29 RB carries to the Vikings in Week 3
  • 126 rushing yards on 24 RB carries to the Jaguars in Week 2
• That’s 5.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Not great!
• The backup running back for the Bears comes down to special teams contributor Travis Homer and practice squad back Brittain Brown.
• No Luther Burden (concussion) and his nine snaps a game in his last three games, so the targets will just consolidate to Odunze, DJ Moore, and Olamide Zaccheaus. Anything outside of Odunze doesn’t feel great, but Moore is an okay start in a pinch.

Cincinnati Bengals

🔒: Ja’Marr Chase

• It’s a condensed roster of Bengals you can start here, with Tee Higgins, Chase Brown and Joe Flacco in a pinch as startable options.
• Brown, in particular, has found running room because of the threat Flacco poses to defenses trying to scramble to defend Chase and Higgins. Unlike Jake Browning, Flacco can get them the ball reliably, so Brown gets the trickle-down efficiency off that. He’s a good leverage point for DFS off the Chase/Higgins stuff.

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams (43.5)

New Orleans Saints

🔒: Chris Olave (borderline)

• It’s all about Tyler Shough and whether he can be an improvement over Spencer Rattler. He’ll get the rest of the season to show it.
• You’re likely starting Chris Olave no matter what, and Rashid Shaheed is questionable with a hip injury after leaving the end of Week 8 with the injury. He’s trending towards playing.
• Juwan Johnson has gotten back healthy, and he’s back to a level he was at for the first few weeks of the season. He’s a pretty safe start this week, and I like him in DFS as well as somebody who isn’t going to catch a lot of ownership, still has a solid ceiling.
• The Saints should be tried at The Hague for attempting to run the ball this season. It’s been bad. Alvin Kamara has been bad. Legitimately bad. Just don’t bother.

Los Angeles Rams (-14)

🔒: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams

• With Tutu Atwell hitting injured reserve (not that you were starting him, anyway), you’re really limited to starting Matthew Stafford and the main locked-in dudes here. Puka szn is back, folks!

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders (43.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

🔒: N/A

• No Travis Hunter here (or in the next three games after Week 9), so you’re probably getting some target concentration to Brian Thomas Jr. in this one.
• Don’t be surprised if you see WAY too much Parker Washington and Dyami Brown, but the Jaguars are very concentrated now without Hunter, as they typically carry just five wide receivers and are likely to promote Austin Trammell and Tim Jones off of their practice squad to fill out the receiving corps with Tim Patrick ALSO out.

Las Vegas Raiders

🔒: Brock Bowers

• We’re finally getting Brock Bowers playing in an NFL game, and we’ve got to make up for lost time. If you follow me on social media, you will know the second Bowers catches a pass.
• Ashton Jeanty feels fine to start, with Tre Tucker a DFS play to some degree. Other than that, all bets are off in a massively volatile offense.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (52.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

🔒: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy

• I’m leaning towards Brashard Smith as the back to play here without Isiah Pacheco. Kareem Hunt feels gross in a Baltimore Ravens-era Melvin Gordon kind of way, but he’s been scoring touchdowns. If there’s an efficiency play, though, I’ll go with Smith, but it’s more likely that Hunt will get more touches and do less than Smith.
• After Rice and Worthy, it’s Travis Kelce here, but the Bills having Matt Milano and Terell Bernard return likely negates a lot of anything after the catch for Kelce. There’s not a lot of confidence here in a sort of leverage play after the two wide receivers.

Buffalo Bills

🔒: Josh Allen, James Cook

• It’s gotten to the point where it’s Khalil Shakir, a splash of Dalton Kincaid, and nothing else we want to even touch here. The Bills’ passing game is “death by 1,000 cuts”, but Shakir’s short passing, which acts like a run game, is the one weekly carryover in this offense.
• I don’t think anybody could sell me on Keon Coleman right now, not even if there’s a fire. He’s as “sacrificial X” as it gets.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders (48.5)

Seattle Seahawks (-3)

🔒: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• Start both Seahawks backs and flip a coin. That’s where we are.
• You have to be pretty outside your mind to start any other pass-catcher outside of Smith-Njigba here, ESPECIALLY with Cooper Kupp banged up and listed as questionable.

Washington Commanders

🔒: Jayden Daniels

• No Terry McLaurin (again) with a quad injury. Not great!
• Jayden Daniels’ return lifts players like Deebo Samuel and possibly Zach Ertz, but after Deebo, they’re all just dart throws to varying degrees.
• Do you WANT to start Jacory Croskey-Merritt? Not really. Do you HAVE to start him? More than likely, but Seattle isn’t a great matchup. Perhaps Daniels’ return will force defenses to play more sideline to sideline, allowing JCM to find some lanes to run through. I’m trying here, this is my own personal hopium for JCM.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (54.5)

Arizona Cardinals

🔒: Trey McBride

• Good news for you, Trey McBride managers: Jacoby Brissett is the likely starting quarterback for the Cardinals!
• You’re starting Marvin Harrison Jr., trying to squeeze the last few remaining drops of his fantasy value, but he’s caught four balls in the last two games. He’s Rashod Bateman at this point, except without an amazingly efficient quarterback propping up the entire offense.
• Bam Knight is your starting running back, and I’m not sure what that means, but you’re probably getting about 13-to-16 touches out of him, so who am I to argue? It’s still a pretty low upside play even against the Cowboys’ defense, which has given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

🔒: Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens

• The Cowboys are the Cowboys. Expect a bounce-back from Jake Ferguson, who earned just one target and didn’t have a reception on 71% of routes.

Kevin Tompkins is the co-owner of Optimus Fantasy Football. Find more from Kevin on Bluesky @ktompkinsii.bsky.social and right here on Optimus Fantasy!