by C.H. Herms
Share
If You’re Here, it’s Because You Want to Win a Fantasy Football Title
To that end, what most of the general public understands as “fantasy football” is played in a format referred to as redraft. Essentially, you and however many of your friends or work colleagues band together to form a league that selects a brand new team on a yearly basis. It’s also typical practice in many of these leagues that each team only starts one quarterback (QB) at a time, just as a real-life NFL team would. In the fantasy biz, we like to call this the “1QB redraft” format.
The Optimus Fantasy team is here to help inform and advise folks embarking on a 1QB redraft journey this upcoming season. Together, let’s discuss some tactics you can employ to ensure you leave 2024 with a league championship.
*For an in-depth glossary of frequently used fantasy football terms, check out Richard Sickel’s Optimus Fantasy article.*
Dominating Your Redraft League in Five Easy Steps
There’s an old adage in many different forms that states that while you cannot win your league on draft day, you can certainly put yourself at a significant disadvantage by mishandling your picks.
The last thing anyone wants to do is bury themselves before the first games of the NFL season even get played.
So, how can we avoid this massive pitfall? It starts with a few actions on the part of the manager:
1.) Know Your League Settings Ahead of Time
Yes, reading the instruction manual can be tedious, but no one likes the person playing Monopoly who thinks they can buy a property after every turn. That’s not how the game works, and it’s tough to win without that understanding to begin with!
It is imperative that you understand your league’s scoring system (PPR, half-PPR, standard), roster requirements, and any unique rules from the jump.
Quality Examples
Any league, for example, that requires managers to play three wide receivers (WRs) in a starting lineup will inherently value the position more than a league that only requires two WRs at a time. How early and/or frequently you select players at that position in your draft will be heavily informed by the prerequisites outlined in your league’s settings.
Additionally, those participating in a PPR (or point-per-reception) format should keep in mind that any player who frequently catches passes in large quantities will be a more significant asset than an athlete who may put up gaudy receiving yardage totals but only see four or five passes come their way in a given game.
This format explicitly rewards one point for every catch a player makes, so do your research in identifying which NFL ballers see large quantities of targets in their offense(s) year over year. These guys will pay great dividends in PPR.
It’ll be wise to avoid the terminology above if you’re unfamiliar with it since we won’t be getting too deep into defining anything for the rest of this article.
2.) You’re Only Chasing Safety: Be Cautious Early in Drafts
There are plenty of ways a redraft manager can assemble a roster. It’s not particularly important whether a team begins a draft by selecting a running back (RB) or WR in the grand scheme of things.
Granted, where your draft slot is in the first round will influence that decision, but the point is that if a team is to survive, it must be built on a foundation of well-established NFL players with successful track records. Indeed, you don’t get points for what a player has done in the past, but history is typically a good indicator of what is to come in the future.
Assuming there’s no glaring reason, like age, that a player should halt being good, they can be considered a good early bet.
Now, there are times when extremely noteworthy rookies with ample opportunity on their depth chart(s) can make their way up high on draft boards, too, though the cardinal rule to remember here is that you should be risk-averse through the early rounds.
Trust What The Past Has Told Us
When considering this strategy point, it’s helpful to remember the title of the legendary post-hardcore band Underøath’s 2004 album, ‘They’re Only Chasing Safety.’’
An excellent fantasy team that wins a league rests on the shoulders of players deemed “safe” picks, such as Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb or San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.
Trendy players with minimal prior success in the NFL will undoubtedly work their way into the conversation of consideration within the first few rounds of a draft. There’s nothing wrong with taking swings on such players either, but if you want to avoid some of the risk involved with taking those guys, go ahead and chase the safety of known superstars early.
Our Dave Stewart outlines Early RB ADP Values here.
3.) Catching Snowflakes: Identify Value Opportunity in Mid-To-Late Rounds
The foundation of your team is set once you’ve made the first three of four picks for your 1QB redraft roster. So, where should a manager go from here?
By the time a draft rolls around to the middle portion, a savvy manager’s primary objective should be to find opportunities to scoop players who’ve fallen down the board for various reasons. Some players are perceived to have injury issues, be too inexperienced to trust with a high selection, or have any other explanation that influences their average draft position (or ADP).
What Is ADP?
ADP can be simply described as an aggregation of data compiled through a particular website’s draft results gathered through both mocks and actual drafts of consequence. Through this data, players are assigned an average value or expectation of where prospective managers should see their name come off the board.
For example, let’s say the esteemed boyfriend of Taylor Swift and Chiefs tight end (TE) Travis Kelce holds an ADP of 2.12. That means that in a 12-team league, a manager can expect Kelce to be taken sometime around the last pick of the second round, hence the “2” and the “.12” denotations.
Using ADP to Identify Value
Should you be on the clock with the ninth choice of the third round, hypothetically, that would make drafting Kelce a wise choice should he be available for selection. At that point, you’ll have taken the 2.12 player on average at the 3.09 in your 12-team league.
Simply put, ADP is akin to a weather forecast predicting snowfall. By the time a draft ends, the vast majority of expected players will be rostered in some combination by the various managers in a league. However, not every snowfall or draft goes precisely according to prediction.
Any time you can catch a rare snowflake, a.ka. a player with a higher value dropping past expectation, an alarm should go off in the noggin that says, “Hey, taking this player here seems to make a lot of sense!”
By building out a team’s depth in this manner, any manager can feel comfortable with the decisions they’ve made and be the envy of league mates who cannot possibly believe so much good fortune came their way.
4.) Drafting a QB Using The Goldilocks Principle
In the 1QB redraft format, the QB a manager picks is a highly impactful decision. If chosen correctly, this player can prove to be a differentiator, particularly since each team only starts one at a time.
There are many prevalent strategies for finding the right player, but recent trends in the NFL and fantasy football as a whole have made utilizing these approaches more complicated.
For instance, renowned fantasy football analyst JJ Zachariason popularized the “late-round QB strategy” in the early 2010s. This approach dictates that it makes statistical sense to wait until toward the end of a draft to choose a starting QB for your lineup.
This theory still absolutely holds some weight, as evidenced by the fact that the gap in average fantasy points per game between the second-best QB (Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles) and the 15th-best QB (Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions) was 4.2 points in four-point per passing touchdown (TD) scoring in 2023.
It’s not a huge difference, but it’s sizeable enough that there’s an entire passing TD difference between the two on an average weekly basis.
Running QBs > “Traditional” QBs
What helps a player like Hurts and serves as a disadvantage to someone like Goff is that the former is known for compiling rushing yards on top of his passing performances. As such, it’s the perspective of Optimus Fantasy that managers should seek to find QBs who are also good rushers since you’ll get points for that statistical output as well.
Because of this trend and a general uptick in QBs who can run effectively, however, the QB position is skewing toward being drafted higher in 1QB redraft leagues than when this late-round strategy was first brought to the forefront.
Find Your Comfort Zone
At this point, managers should exercise as much judgment as possible and measure their comfort level regarding how early they want to select a quarterback. A reliable general rule of thumb is that picking a quarterback any time before the fifth round is considered too early.
Any time after that, however? That’s up to you. Embody your inner Goldilocks and identify whatever feels “just right” for your team. Just try to find a quarterback who can run the ball well, too, if possible.
5.) Bad Stuff Will Happen: Don’t Stop Being Active Post-Draft
1QB redraft managers should feel confident in themselves, assuming they’ve successfully executed these steps in their draft(s). Unfortunately, the quest toward the championship doesn’t stop after this point.
Look… you’re going to be wrong about some stuff. Players you perceived as safe might suffer a season-ending injury. The slam-dunk sleeper TE you snagged in the ninth round might’ve turned into a pumpkin before the calendar turned to Halloween. The fact of the matter is that bad stuff will happen.
The good news is that there are ways to fix these mistakes!
Always Make Deals
Trying to make trades with your league mates and being active on your league’s waiver wire on a weekly basis are the best ways to remedy the errors made on draft day. Plus, just think about it: did you really expect everyone you picked on draft day to be a bonafide star and be in your lineup every week?
Hell, the most experienced fantasy managers in the world will tell you that at least one-third of their original team is gone by the time the playoffs roll around every year. The team here at Optimus has been playing in 1QB redraft leagues for decades, and none of us could say with a straight face that we’ve won a league without making a single waiver transaction.
Conclusion
Be willing to accept failure, and don’t stop building your team once the season is underway. The vast majority of fantasy football leagues allow trading and boast a waiver wire feature so that you can be flexible and pivot as time goes along.
If you can be mindful of the rules, be strategic in your approach, and have fun along the way, you can be a fantasy football champion.
C.H. Herms is a co-founder & Senior Managing Editor for Optimus Fantasy Football. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @CH_Herms for more fantasy football insights
by C.H. Herms
Share
If You’re Here, it’s Because You Want to Win a Fantasy Football Title
To that end, what most of the general public understands as “fantasy football” is played in a format referred to as redraft. Essentially, you and however many of your friends or work colleagues band together to form a league that selects a brand new team on a yearly basis. It’s also typical practice in many of these leagues that each team only starts one quarterback (QB) at a time, just as a real-life NFL team would. In the fantasy biz, we like to call this the “1QB redraft” format.
The Optimus Fantasy team is here to help inform and advise folks embarking on a 1QB redraft journey this upcoming season. Together, let’s discuss some tactics you can employ to ensure you leave 2024 with a league championship.
*For an in-depth glossary of frequently used fantasy football terms, check out Richard Sickel’s Optimus Fantasy article.*
Dominating Your Redraft League in Five Easy Steps
There’s an old adage in many different forms that states that while you cannot win your league on draft day, you can certainly put yourself at a significant disadvantage by mishandling your picks.
The last thing anyone wants to do is bury themselves before the first games of the NFL season even get played.
So, how can we avoid this massive pitfall? It starts with a few actions on the part of the manager:
1.) Know Your League Settings Ahead of Time
Yes, reading the instruction manual can be tedious, but no one likes the person playing Monopoly who thinks they can buy a property after every turn. That’s not how the game works, and it’s tough to win without that understanding to begin with!
It is imperative that you understand your league’s scoring system (PPR, half-PPR, standard), roster requirements, and any unique rules from the jump.
Quality Examples
Any league, for example, that requires managers to play three wide receivers (WRs) in a starting lineup will inherently value the position more than a league that only requires two WRs at a time. How early and/or frequently you select players at that position in your draft will be heavily informed by the prerequisites outlined in your league’s settings.
Additionally, those participating in a PPR (or point-per-reception) format should keep in mind that any player who frequently catches passes in large quantities will be a more significant asset than an athlete who may put up gaudy receiving yardage totals but only see four or five passes come their way in a given game.
This format explicitly rewards one point for every catch a player makes, so do your research in identifying which NFL ballers see large quantities of targets in their offense(s) year over year. These guys will pay great dividends in PPR.
It’ll be wise to avoid the terminology above if you’re unfamiliar with it since we won’t be getting too deep into defining anything for the rest of this article.
2.) You’re Only Chasing Safety: Be Cautious Early in Drafts
There are plenty of ways a redraft manager can assemble a roster. It’s not particularly important whether a team begins a draft by selecting a running back (RB) or WR in the grand scheme of things.
Granted, where your draft slot is in the first round will influence that decision, but the point is that if a team is to survive, it must be built on a foundation of well-established NFL players with successful track records. Indeed, you don’t get points for what a player has done in the past, but history is typically a good indicator of what is to come in the future.
Assuming there’s no glaring reason, like age, that a player should halt being good, they can be considered a good early bet.
Now, there are times when extremely noteworthy rookies with ample opportunity on their depth chart(s) can make their way up high on draft boards, too, though the cardinal rule to remember here is that you should be risk-averse through the early rounds.
Trust What The Past Has Told Us
When considering this strategy point, it’s helpful to remember the title of the legendary post-hardcore band Underøath’s 2004 album, ‘They’re Only Chasing Safety.’’
An excellent fantasy team that wins a league rests on the shoulders of players deemed “safe” picks, such as Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb or San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.
Trendy players with minimal prior success in the NFL will undoubtedly work their way into the conversation of consideration within the first few rounds of a draft. There’s nothing wrong with taking swings on such players either, but if you want to avoid some of the risk involved with taking those guys, go ahead and chase the safety of known superstars early.
Our Dave Stewart outlines Early RB ADP Values here.
3.) Catching Snowflakes: Identify Value Opportunity in Mid-To-Late Rounds
The foundation of your team is set once you’ve made the first three of four picks for your 1QB redraft roster. So, where should a manager go from here?
By the time a draft rolls around to the middle portion, a savvy manager’s primary objective should be to find opportunities to scoop players who’ve fallen down the board for various reasons. Some players are perceived to have injury issues, be too inexperienced to trust with a high selection, or have any other explanation that influences their average draft position (or ADP).
What Is ADP?
ADP can be simply described as an aggregation of data compiled through a particular website’s draft results gathered through both mocks and actual drafts of consequence. Through this data, players are assigned an average value or expectation of where prospective managers should see their name come off the board.
For example, let’s say the esteemed boyfriend of Taylor Swift and Chiefs tight end (TE) Travis Kelce holds an ADP of 2.12. That means that in a 12-team league, a manager can expect Kelce to be taken sometime around the last pick of the second round, hence the “2” and the “.12” denotations.
Using ADP to Identify Value
Should you be on the clock with the ninth choice of the third round, hypothetically, that would make drafting Kelce a wise choice should he be available for selection. At that point, you’ll have taken the 2.12 player on average at the 3.09 in your 12-team league.
Simply put, ADP is akin to a weather forecast predicting snowfall. By the time a draft ends, the vast majority of expected players will be rostered in some combination by the various managers in a league. However, not every snowfall or draft goes precisely according to prediction.
Any time you can catch a rare snowflake, a.ka. a player with a higher value dropping past expectation, an alarm should go off in the noggin that says, “Hey, taking this player here seems to make a lot of sense!”
By building out a team’s depth in this manner, any manager can feel comfortable with the decisions they’ve made and be the envy of league mates who cannot possibly believe so much good fortune came their way.
4.) Drafting a QB Using The Goldilocks Principle
In the 1QB redraft format, the QB a manager picks is a highly impactful decision. If chosen correctly, this player can prove to be a differentiator, particularly since each team only starts one at a time.
There are many prevalent strategies for finding the right player, but recent trends in the NFL and fantasy football as a whole have made utilizing these approaches more complicated.
For instance, renowned fantasy football analyst JJ Zachariason popularized the “late-round QB strategy” in the early 2010s. This approach dictates that it makes statistical sense to wait until toward the end of a draft to choose a starting QB for your lineup.
This theory still absolutely holds some weight, as evidenced by the fact that the gap in average fantasy points per game between the second-best QB (Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles) and the 15th-best QB (Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions) was 4.2 points in four-point per passing touchdown (TD) scoring in 2023.
It’s not a huge difference, but it’s sizeable enough that there’s an entire passing TD difference between the two on an average weekly basis.
Running QBs > “Traditional” QBs
What helps a player like Hurts and serves as a disadvantage to someone like Goff is that the former is known for compiling rushing yards on top of his passing performances. As such, it’s the perspective of Optimus Fantasy that managers should seek to find QBs who are also good rushers since you’ll get points for that statistical output as well.
Because of this trend and a general uptick in QBs who can run effectively, however, the QB position is skewing toward being drafted higher in 1QB redraft leagues than when this late-round strategy was first brought to the forefront.
Find Your Comfort Zone
At this point, managers should exercise as much judgment as possible and measure their comfort level regarding how early they want to select a quarterback. A reliable general rule of thumb is that picking a quarterback any time before the fifth round is considered too early.
Any time after that, however? That’s up to you. Embody your inner Goldilocks and identify whatever feels “just right” for your team. Just try to find a quarterback who can run the ball well, too, if possible.
5.) Bad Stuff Will Happen: Don’t Stop Being Active Post-Draft
1QB redraft managers should feel confident in themselves, assuming they’ve successfully executed these steps in their draft(s). Unfortunately, the quest toward the championship doesn’t stop after this point.
Look… you’re going to be wrong about some stuff. Players you perceived as safe might suffer a season-ending injury. The slam-dunk sleeper TE you snagged in the ninth round might’ve turned into a pumpkin before the calendar turned to Halloween. The fact of the matter is that bad stuff will happen.
The good news is that there are ways to fix these mistakes!
Always Make Deals
Trying to make trades with your league mates and being active on your league’s waiver wire on a weekly basis are the best ways to remedy the errors made on draft day. Plus, just think about it: did you really expect everyone you picked on draft day to be a bonafide star and be in your lineup every week?
Hell, the most experienced fantasy managers in the world will tell you that at least one-third of their original team is gone by the time the playoffs roll around every year. The team here at Optimus has been playing in 1QB redraft leagues for decades, and none of us could say with a straight face that we’ve won a league without making a single waiver transaction.
Conclusion
Be willing to accept failure, and don’t stop building your team once the season is underway. The vast majority of fantasy football leagues allow trading and boast a waiver wire feature so that you can be flexible and pivot as time goes along.
If you can be mindful of the rules, be strategic in your approach, and have fun along the way, you can be a fantasy football champion.
C.H. Herms is a co-founder & Senior Managing Editor for Optimus Fantasy Football. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @CH_Herms for more fantasy football insights
Believing in New York to pull off the unlikely victory in Week 1 was most definitely not my finest moment of the week, but I did also advise others to be cautious about the small likelihood of that. I can't beat myself too much over believing in the Giants, as Wan'Dale Robinson did deliver in Week 1's predictions via "Storyline, Storytime."
Hey folks! We cannot understate the importance of being in on Week 3 waiver wire players early while the FAAB price is cheapest (or free!), so you can add them to your roster. This is not just for adding them to your roster so your league mates don’t get them first but also so you […]
Bo McBrayer brings the spice with his fantasy football Week 2 advice, giving you the musings and information you need to keep your lineups hot-n-ready. Have you ever watched football for 11 consecutive hours on a leather couch? I have. My current couch is cloth, but I remember back when I was sticking and peeling […]
Week 1 always has a way of taking the wind out of our sails. Sure, it's lovely having football back. What's not wonderful is when a wide receiver goes down with an injury and has to miss time.
Puka Nacua should be heading to the injured reserve with a sprained PCL. There is no timetable for how long Nacua will be shelved. Fantasy managers are now sprinting to find a decent replacement.
In this week's WR2 Radar, I look at some of the more notable wide receiver injuries to monitor this and future weeks.
I will examine wide receivers that are readily available and that you can use to bolster your squad this week (or in the near future). Plus, find out what WR1s are pulling the wool over our eyes. Make sure to check out the Optimus Fantasy Rankings.
But fear not, folks. It’s early in the season, and there is plenty of time to fill those holes and right the ship. Here are players at every position that can help you get on your way to victory in Week 2 of fantasy football action and beyond.
Wide receivers are so nice; I had to do this twice! Welcome to Week 1, Part 2 of The WR2 Radar, where I dive into wide receivers who may not be the top option on their teams or at the top of the weekly fantasy WR rankings but have the potential to post WR1 numbers this season. Week 1 offers opportunities for these players to step into the spotlight.
Each week, I'll provide five players as look-ahead players for the next week, who could be THE waiver wire claims for the following week. But they won't be available in your league because you already have them. We haven't even played a snap of regular-season football yet, but we're already looking ahead to Week 2's players.
Note: If these players get hurt in Week 1, I cannot be held responsible, so please don't tweet me @ktompkinsii if that happens.
Keeping your fantasy football rosters in tip-top shape is no small task; it requires a level of almost psychotic tinkering that only a few in this world are capable of. It can drive some to madness and others to championship glory. We prefer to help you do the latter.
Should I give out bad advice, I’m not really the sentimental type. Being apologetic for failing to predict the future seems disingenuous, anyway. The fine folks at Optimus want me to contribute the stuff that spills from my eyes, ears, and nose, so this column will put just that at your fingertips. Should it aid you in a redraft or dynasty league victory, or even a DFS lineup, that’s cool beans. I aim to win in an entertaining way, so they don’t ever sack me for being boring. Bring on the rush, I’ll stand tall (or scramble) the only way I know: with pizzazz.
Last year, several wideouts surprised us by putting up WR1 numbers when they were WR2 (or WR3) on their teams. DeVonta Smith, Gabe Davis, and Tee Higgins each had four games as a top-12 WR in points per reception (PPR) scoring.
Rashid Shaheed, Jakobi Meyers, and Noah Brown all had three. Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham Jr., Jordan Addison, Joshua Palmer, and Cooper Kupp tallied two.
In my series this season, I'll examine weekly matchups to determine if an NFL WR2 can outperform a WR1 on another team. It is important to look beyond the label of "WR1." Considering factors such as matchups, injuries, and team dynamics, I'll find what No. 2 options are worth putting in your lineup.
This series is focused on helping you to learn how to play fantasy football.
In this article, we'll focus on the basics of what you need to start your own league. We will discuss how to decide what league format you want to play in, a few of the different platforms you can play on, and how to create your league settings.
First and foremost, let's discuss deciding who you will be playing with.
These rookies stepped onto the stage in downtown Detroit this April and heard their names called for the world to listen to. Now, it is their time to show the world what they are made of. Not all rookies will meet their fanbase's expectations in their first year, but some players will start building a resume on their path to a golden jacket during their rookie seasons.