Come in, come in, sit down. So tell me, what brings you in today? Mmhmm. Mmhmm. I see. OK. Well, you've certainly got plenty on your mind. I know, I know, it's a lot to carry all at once, but don't worry, we're gonna help you sort through it.

After all, it's early in the fantasy football season. We see Week 1s lie to us all the time. In 2025, we had QB1s Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers. And who could forget WR1s Hollywood Brown or Keon Coleman? And as we all know, Noah Fant went on to do wonderful things at TE in 2025.

I could go on and on with examples of how 2025 lied to us, but instead, my goal here is to help you separate the reality from the players who are gaslighting you. 

Important Note: Lou is not a therapist and is only pretending to be one for fantasy purposes; he cannot help you fix your issues with your parent/partner/pet/plant or other p-word. But he can help you with your fantasy football team.

Fantasy Football Therapy Week 1: It's Time to Be Honest About Your Team

The Lies We Tell Ourselves

"I can totally rely on Mike Gesicki this year."

Lou scribbles in his notebook, and you think you see "Sean Payton hates us" written over and over again on his notepad.

We've seen this before. Mike Gesicki goes off in Week 14, 2025, going for 6/86/1 on 6 targets. Only for Tee Higgins to miss the next game - usually an indicator that Gesicki will do it again - and Gesicki goes for 1/11 on 2 targets against Baltimore. In Week 15. During the fantasy playoffs. Even the TE soothsayer himself, Andrew Cooper, thought so:

Mike Gesicki played 28 snaps this past week - for 26 of those, he lined up at WR. With Tee Higgins out this week, he's absolutely on the streaming radar if you need him.

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 26, 2025

Yes, Ja'Marr Chase will sometimes come in third on the Bengals in targets. It happens sometimes. But if you think Chase is getting only 4 targets again, I need you to stop lying to yourself. At best, Gesicki is the 4th option in the offense. Expect him to act like it going forward.

"Jameson Williams is looking like a bust."

Let's unpack this, shall we?

You drafted him somewhere right around WR25 depending on league depth, format, and platform. So it's not like you spent a 1st or 2nd round pick on him, and you should have some really good players to count on. You drafted Brock Bowers and A.J. Brown, you say?

Lou scribbles something about people resisting his advice on his notepad.

We'll address that at another time. But for now, let's focus on what is. Jameson Williams earned 9 targets in Week 1, good for a 23.1% target share. He dominated in air yards, leading the team by far with 128, which was over 56% of the team's total air yards!

Drops are unfortunately part of the deal with Williams, and Week 1 was one of those weeks that came up snake eyes for you. If he converts one or two more of those passes, we would have a much different view of him coming out of Week 1. You don't get a fish and then expect it to bark. Just like you don't draft Jameson Williams and not expect him to have some drops.

"My guys will tank with a backup QB."

This one is my specialty; I actually studied it. 164 backup takeovers, 2180 same-player comparisons over an 11-year period. Yes, that's my version of hanging a degree on my wall.

Lou points over his shoulder to a blank wall where a degree would sit, but you don't question it. This is fantasy football, after all.

I know Sam Darnold is butthurt, and you're really worried about Drew Lock's impact on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jadarian Price, and the rest of the Seahawks offense. First, the bad news. TDs do come down; yards do come down. All in all, a WR's production drops about 7% due to the backup's combined differences in yards per attempt and TD rate. 

But the good news? RB impact is basically nullified. What the offense loses in terms of TDs is made up for in a bit of extra rushing volume. Where passes go also doesn't change. So that gaudy 35%+ target share that JSN enjoys? That's sticking with him. He's just gonna take a slight hit in yardage and TD production. Those more borderline guys? Not so borderline with a backup. But your JSN shares are fine.

I know. You started Drake London and got burned. Cooper Rush isn't even a backup QB; he's a 3rd-string QB at this point, and I've got nothing for you on that. It just doesn't happen often enough. It's OK, and it's not your fault. It's not your fault. 

Lou draws you in for a tight hug.

It's not your fault.

Believe Them When They Show You Who They Are

"Jayden Daniels will recapture the magic of his rookie year."

Lou takes both of your hands in his, patting the tops of your hands softly.

I know, I know, I get it. I want good things for Jayden Daniels, too. After all, he averaged 21.98 fantasy points/game in 2024, with a median of 22.94 (which means a couple of really low games dragged his average down). That's the stuff of fantasy football greatness!

"And then what happened?"

Well, his sophomore season was injury-shortened, of course. So let's throw that out, because he tried to come back when he shouldn't have, and everyone knew it. His average in those games fell to 18.6 fantasy points/game. OK, but again, a low score or two dragged him down, right? Well, the median was only 18.7 fantasy points/game. He was remarkably consistent, but consistently good, not great.

So when we see Daniels come out and put up a good score - a fine score, to be clear! - but not a great one? This is a lot more likely to be who he is. Not the QB5 he was drafted as. But this guy. A guy who hovers between QB7 and QB15 week to week. You're not going to change him.

"RBs in bad offenses can still be productive!"

Lou leans forward, focusing on you intently. 

That is not a factually incorrect statement. They can still be productive. As a matter of fact, 8 RBs have finished as top-12 RBs when they play for bottom-5 scoring offenses over the past 11 seasons. If we extend that to bottom-8 offenses (so the bottom 25%), we get up to 17 RB1 finishes. 

That works out to RBs in a bottom-5 offense accounting for 6.1% of all RB1 finishes, and bottom-8 offenses accounting for 12.9% of RB1 finishes. To put these numbers into perspective, an even distribution would have bottom-5 offenses accounting for 15.6% of RB1 finishes, and bottom-8 offenses accounting for 25% of RB1 finishes. So yes, it's possible. But it's not likely.

I know you took De'Von Achane in the second round. Yes, I've loved his productivity and involvement, too. I'm a huge fan of Quinshon Judkins the player, but mired in the factory of sadness that is Cleveland?

It's time to grow up and stop lying to ourselves. This is just who these players are this year. And that's OK. Give yourself permission to move on.

Same time next week?

You've done some really good work this week. I know it's hard to be honest with ourselves when it comes to difficult conversations. I'm really proud of you for taking this first step. Like anything else, the goal is not to stay in therapy forever. To that end, this process will cover the first month of the season, and after Week 4, I hope to see you ready to take on the rest of the fantasy season armed with all the strategies and tools we go over together.

From there, this column will transition, but fear not! It will grow with you throughout the season. You won't need the same things in Week 7 that you did in Week 2. That's called growth, and we'll get you ready for it. Together.

Lou Brunson serves as a Senior Analyst and designer of the Two Rivers, GUTS, and Injury Response Protocol projection systems used across Optimus Fantasy.