by Nate Polvogt
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Summer is in the air, which means all of us fantasy football fanatics are getting that drafting itch. Whether it’s a friendly mock draft with league mates feeling the same itch, a way-too-early redraft league draft or a dynasty start-up draft, this is the time of year to get back into the groove and ready for the season ahead.
When heading into drafts, most managers come to the table with a strategy. There are many different approaches, all with fancy names to indicate the heart of the plan. As an analyst and fanatic, I’ve tried them all a few times. Zero-RB, Zero-QB, Robust-WR, and the list goes on. However, there’s one that I keep going back to repeatedly: Hero-RB.
Hero-RB strategy is simple. Get a stud in the early rounds of your draft, then punt on the position until later. This allows you to load up at WR, TE and QB while still rostering an elite ball carrier. Sound scary? I get it. It can be. However, don’t judge a book by its cover.
Why Hero-RB?
Most leagues these days are Superflex, point-per-reception (PPR) format leagues. In this style of fantasy football league, QBs, WRs and pass-catching RBs have a much higher value than your run-of-the-mill, 20-plus carries per outing halfback who doesn’t see much work in the passing game. Therefore, loading your roster with an elite signal-caller and high-volume WRs is paramount to success.
Adopting the Hero-RB philosophy, you can stack your team with higher-value receiving options like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson and Dalton Kincaid.
What About RB Depth?
It’s all fun and games to have a loaded receiving corps on your fantasy roster, but what about backfield depth? Well, friends, I have good news. Hero-RB works because the position has plenty of value in later rounds. Ball-carriers like Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner and Jaylen Warren, while not the sexiest options at RB, have plenty of upside on their own.
Who Should You Be Targeting in 2024?
Of course, late-round success in 2023 doesn’t guarantee the same this upcoming season. However, there is still plenty of quality RB value to be had late in drafts in 2024. Once you’ve rostered your hero with an early-round pick, here are some later-round steals you should consider when drafting with Hero RB draft strategy.
ADP referenced using 4for4’s Consensus ADP Tracker
Late Hero RB Targets I Love
Antonio Gibson (RB – NE) ADP 142, RB47
Every season, someone says, “This is the year Antonio Gibson finally breaks out!” I hate to disappoint you all, but I am not that person. However, there is still value in rostering Gibson, even if the breakout is never coming.
Gibson, who recently turned 26, spent the last four seasons in a Commanders offense that was mediocre at best. While his first two seasons were solid – he finished RB13 and RB12, respectively, in those seasons – two finishes outside the top 24 in 2022 and 2023 have soured many on his future.
The Patriots’ prospects for success in 2024 might not be excellent, but they don’t have to be. Gibson is now slotted into an offense with rookie QB Drake Maye, who targeted receivers on routes less than nine yards on 50.1 percent of attempts last season. In 2023 with Washington, 53 of Gibson’s 57 targets were in the same range.
There is more to Gibson’s value than his receiving upside. In 2023, New England split backfield carries almost down the middle between Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot. Elliot is gone, and while Mayo is the new man in charge, he is still a remnant from the old guard, so don’t expect Stevenson to see much of an uptick in his opportunity share.
Gibson is far from being a home run this season. However, he is valued at what, in my opinion, is his floor right now, whether I’m employing the Hero RB draft strategy or not. That’s a risk worth taking in any redraft format.
MarShawn Lloyd (RB – GB) ADP 138, RB45
Is Green Bay Packers rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd the new Aaron Jones? Let’s pump the brakes, folks. While there is no denying Lloyd is a talented prospect, “Aaron Jones’ don’t just fall off trees” (bonus points if you get the movie reference).
That said, if there were a rookie RB I would bank on outperforming expectations in 2024; it’s Lloyd.
I do understand the Jones comparisons. Lloyd went out of his way to attend the Reese’s Senior Bowl to showcase his pass-catching acumen, which he rarely did at the University of Southern California (USC) – Lloyd was targeted a paltry 50 times in three collegiate seasons. However, while the volume might not have been there, their efficiency was. During his sophomore and junior seasons, Lloyd caught 72 percent of his targets for 405 yards and two touchdowns.
Whether you like it or not, Green Bay has their “bruiser” back in A.J. Dillon, so Lloyd’s role will likely be primarily limited to change-of-pace carries and route running out of the backfield in 2024. However, that’s nothing to shake a stick at. Dillon has shown a limited ability to contribute to the Packers’ passing attack, earning 28 targets last season, with most coming in weeks in which Jones missed playing time.
Realistic expectations for Lloyd in his rookie campaign would land him in the range of a back-end RB3, which would still significantly outperform his current ADP. And if Dillon misses time or continues to be inefficient in short-yardage situations – 2.2 yards per attempt and two touchdowns on 36 carries inside the 20 last season – Lloyd could see a significant bump in opportunity.
If you like value in fantasy football, and I know you do, you should be drafting Lloyd at cost in droves right now. This is a no-brainer if you employ the Hero RB draft strategy.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC) ADP 147, RB49
Players like J.K Dobbins understandably lose fantasy value when their injury history keeps them off the field as he has. Despite the obvious talent and perfect situation in Baltimore the past four seasons, his best finish was in his rookie season. He finished as the PPR RB23 that year with 805 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in 15 games.
However, since that 2020 season, Dobbins has played in nine games, rushing for 542 yards and three touchdowns. A series of injuries, including an ACL tear in 2021 and an Achilles tear in 2023, have mostly kept Dobbins sidelined. The severity of those injuries rightfully gives many fantasy managers pause, as reflected in his current ADP.
This offseason, Dobbins and fellow RB Gus Edwards made their way to Los Angeles to team up with former offensive coordinator (OC) Greg Roman. Roman, the architect of Dobbins’ electric rookie campaign, will again be engineering a run-heavy campaign for the Chargers, as evidenced by the departure and apparent non-replacement of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
The RB situation in Los Angeles lends itself to a committee approach, which would align with what HC Jim Harbaugh and Roman have done in the past. That’s good news for Dobbins, given his injury. It’s unlikely he will be expected to handle significant volume early on. However, his prowess inside the five-yard-line – eight carries for 17 yards and seven touchdowns in 2020 – could prop up his early value.
Rostering Dobbins this soon after an Achilles tear has its risks. Most players coming off this injury don’t recover their quickness or ability to cut as quickly. However, this situation couldn’t be better for Dobbins, and if he’s going to find a role that makes him a relevant fantasy football asset, this is it.
Hero RB Targets I Like
Zack Moss (RBs – CIN) | ADP 87, RB27
Somehow, every season, Cincinnati RB Zack Moss finds a way to creep into the fantasy football conversation. Whether it’s the flashes we saw in split time with Devin Singletary in Buffalo or his fill-in role for Jonathan Taylor, Moss’ name ends up on our tongues in one way or another.
Heading into the 2024 season, Moss appears headed towards a lead-back role in Cincinnati. Fellow Bengals ball carrier Chase Brown, in his second season, will serve as a change-of-pace back. Look for Moss to expand on his career-best 2023 season, which saw him notch highs in carries (183), rushing yards (794) and total touchdowns (7). With an ADP putting him well into the 7th round of fantasy football drafts, Moss is a low-risk, high-reward #HeroRB target.
Ray Davis (RB – BUF) ADP 171, RB55
Not all rookie situations are equal, and Buffalo RB Ray Davis is a perfect example. The fifth-year senior from Kentucky, who will be 25 in November, is the opposite of the prototype for a successful ball carrier in the NFL based on those two things alone. Yet, here I am, writing about him in a Hero RB strategy article.
Davis didn’t receive much hype leading up to the NFL Draft in April despite racking up 1,131 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns at Kentucky his senior season. He fell to the fourth-round, eventually landing with the Bills at pick 129. While Davis may be behind RB James Cook on the depth chart, this is likely to shake out to be more of a committee approach, with Davis getting a significant advantage.
The Bills organization hasn’t been quiet about their desire to keep Josh Allen from selling out his body in the running game, especially in short-yard situations. Thus far, they have been unsuccessful. However, with his 5-foot-10, 216-pound bowling ball frame, Davis seems the perfect candidate to make that happen.
If Davis, who has no real competition for volume outside of Cook, cements his role in the Bills attack early, you might have landed a difference-making asset in the 14th round of your drafts. If he misses like so many before him have, you gave up a 14th-round pick to find out.
Find more from Optimus Senior Analyst Nate Polvogt on X (formerly Twitter) @NatePolvogt & here at Optimus Fantasy Football.
by Nate Polvogt
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Summer is in the air, which means all of us fantasy football fanatics are getting that drafting itch. Whether it’s a friendly mock draft with league mates feeling the same itch, a way-too-early redraft league draft or a dynasty start-up draft, this is the time of year to get back into the groove and ready for the season ahead.
When heading into drafts, most managers come to the table with a strategy. There are many different approaches, all with fancy names to indicate the heart of the plan. As an analyst and fanatic, I’ve tried them all a few times. Zero-RB, Zero-QB, Robust-WR, and the list goes on. However, there’s one that I keep going back to repeatedly: Hero-RB.
Hero-RB strategy is simple. Get a stud in the early rounds of your draft, then punt on the position until later. This allows you to load up at WR, TE and QB while still rostering an elite ball carrier. Sound scary? I get it. It can be. However, don’t judge a book by its cover.
Why Hero-RB?
Most leagues these days are Superflex, point-per-reception (PPR) format leagues. In this style of fantasy football league, QBs, WRs and pass-catching RBs have a much higher value than your run-of-the-mill, 20-plus carries per outing halfback who doesn’t see much work in the passing game. Therefore, loading your roster with an elite signal-caller and high-volume WRs is paramount to success.
Adopting the Hero-RB philosophy, you can stack your team with higher-value receiving options like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson and Dalton Kincaid.
What About RB Depth?
It’s all fun and games to have a loaded receiving corps on your fantasy roster, but what about backfield depth? Well, friends, I have good news. Hero-RB works because the position has plenty of value in later rounds. Ball-carriers like Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner and Jaylen Warren, while not the sexiest options at RB, have plenty of upside on their own.
Who Should You Be Targeting in 2024?
Of course, late-round success in 2023 doesn’t guarantee the same this upcoming season. However, there is still plenty of quality RB value to be had late in drafts in 2024. Once you’ve rostered your hero with an early-round pick, here are some later-round steals you should consider when drafting with Hero RB draft strategy.
ADP referenced using 4for4’s Consensus ADP Tracker
Late Hero RB Targets I Love
Antonio Gibson (RB – NE) ADP 142, RB47
Every season, someone says, “This is the year Antonio Gibson finally breaks out!” I hate to disappoint you all, but I am not that person. However, there is still value in rostering Gibson, even if the breakout is never coming.
Gibson, who recently turned 26, spent the last four seasons in a Commanders offense that was mediocre at best. While his first two seasons were solid – he finished RB13 and RB12, respectively, in those seasons – two finishes outside the top 24 in 2022 and 2023 have soured many on his future.
The Patriots’ prospects for success in 2024 might not be excellent, but they don’t have to be. Gibson is now slotted into an offense with rookie QB Drake Maye, who targeted receivers on routes less than nine yards on 50.1 percent of attempts last season. In 2023 with Washington, 53 of Gibson’s 57 targets were in the same range.
There is more to Gibson’s value than his receiving upside. In 2023, New England split backfield carries almost down the middle between Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot. Elliot is gone, and while Mayo is the new man in charge, he is still a remnant from the old guard, so don’t expect Stevenson to see much of an uptick in his opportunity share.
Gibson is far from being a home run this season. However, he is valued at what, in my opinion, is his floor right now, whether I’m employing the Hero RB draft strategy or not. That’s a risk worth taking in any redraft format.
MarShawn Lloyd (RB – GB) ADP 138, RB45
Is Green Bay Packers rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd the new Aaron Jones? Let’s pump the brakes, folks. While there is no denying Lloyd is a talented prospect, “Aaron Jones’ don’t just fall off trees” (bonus points if you get the movie reference).
That said, if there were a rookie RB I would bank on outperforming expectations in 2024; it’s Lloyd.
I do understand the Jones comparisons. Lloyd went out of his way to attend the Reese’s Senior Bowl to showcase his pass-catching acumen, which he rarely did at the University of Southern California (USC) – Lloyd was targeted a paltry 50 times in three collegiate seasons. However, while the volume might not have been there, their efficiency was. During his sophomore and junior seasons, Lloyd caught 72 percent of his targets for 405 yards and two touchdowns.
Whether you like it or not, Green Bay has their “bruiser” back in A.J. Dillon, so Lloyd’s role will likely be primarily limited to change-of-pace carries and route running out of the backfield in 2024. However, that’s nothing to shake a stick at. Dillon has shown a limited ability to contribute to the Packers’ passing attack, earning 28 targets last season, with most coming in weeks in which Jones missed playing time.
Realistic expectations for Lloyd in his rookie campaign would land him in the range of a back-end RB3, which would still significantly outperform his current ADP. And if Dillon misses time or continues to be inefficient in short-yardage situations – 2.2 yards per attempt and two touchdowns on 36 carries inside the 20 last season – Lloyd could see a significant bump in opportunity.
If you like value in fantasy football, and I know you do, you should be drafting Lloyd at cost in droves right now. This is a no-brainer if you employ the Hero RB draft strategy.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC) ADP 147, RB49
Players like J.K Dobbins understandably lose fantasy value when their injury history keeps them off the field as he has. Despite the obvious talent and perfect situation in Baltimore the past four seasons, his best finish was in his rookie season. He finished as the PPR RB23 that year with 805 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in 15 games.
However, since that 2020 season, Dobbins has played in nine games, rushing for 542 yards and three touchdowns. A series of injuries, including an ACL tear in 2021 and an Achilles tear in 2023, have mostly kept Dobbins sidelined. The severity of those injuries rightfully gives many fantasy managers pause, as reflected in his current ADP.
This offseason, Dobbins and fellow RB Gus Edwards made their way to Los Angeles to team up with former offensive coordinator (OC) Greg Roman. Roman, the architect of Dobbins’ electric rookie campaign, will again be engineering a run-heavy campaign for the Chargers, as evidenced by the departure and apparent non-replacement of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
The RB situation in Los Angeles lends itself to a committee approach, which would align with what HC Jim Harbaugh and Roman have done in the past. That’s good news for Dobbins, given his injury. It’s unlikely he will be expected to handle significant volume early on. However, his prowess inside the five-yard-line – eight carries for 17 yards and seven touchdowns in 2020 – could prop up his early value.
Rostering Dobbins this soon after an Achilles tear has its risks. Most players coming off this injury don’t recover their quickness or ability to cut as quickly. However, this situation couldn’t be better for Dobbins, and if he’s going to find a role that makes him a relevant fantasy football asset, this is it.
Hero RB Targets I Like
Zack Moss (RBs – CIN) | ADP 87, RB27
Somehow, every season, Cincinnati RB Zack Moss finds a way to creep into the fantasy football conversation. Whether it’s the flashes we saw in split time with Devin Singletary in Buffalo or his fill-in role for Jonathan Taylor, Moss’ name ends up on our tongues in one way or another.
Heading into the 2024 season, Moss appears headed towards a lead-back role in Cincinnati. Fellow Bengals ball carrier Chase Brown, in his second season, will serve as a change-of-pace back. Look for Moss to expand on his career-best 2023 season, which saw him notch highs in carries (183), rushing yards (794) and total touchdowns (7). With an ADP putting him well into the 7th round of fantasy football drafts, Moss is a low-risk, high-reward #HeroRB target.
Ray Davis (RB – BUF) ADP 171, RB55
Not all rookie situations are equal, and Buffalo RB Ray Davis is a perfect example. The fifth-year senior from Kentucky, who will be 25 in November, is the opposite of the prototype for a successful ball carrier in the NFL based on those two things alone. Yet, here I am, writing about him in a Hero RB strategy article.
Davis didn’t receive much hype leading up to the NFL Draft in April despite racking up 1,131 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns at Kentucky his senior season. He fell to the fourth-round, eventually landing with the Bills at pick 129. While Davis may be behind RB James Cook on the depth chart, this is likely to shake out to be more of a committee approach, with Davis getting a significant advantage.
The Bills organization hasn’t been quiet about their desire to keep Josh Allen from selling out his body in the running game, especially in short-yard situations. Thus far, they have been unsuccessful. However, with his 5-foot-10, 216-pound bowling ball frame, Davis seems the perfect candidate to make that happen.
If Davis, who has no real competition for volume outside of Cook, cements his role in the Bills attack early, you might have landed a difference-making asset in the 14th round of your drafts. If he misses like so many before him have, you gave up a 14th-round pick to find out.
Find more from Optimus Senior Analyst Nate Polvogt on X (formerly Twitter) @NatePolvogt & here at Optimus Fantasy Football.
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