Welcome to the NFC West version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Arizona Cardinals. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Arizona Cardinals in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-2.74
4th Down Go For It!	17.48
Target GINI	0.568
Rushing GINI	0.698
Plays/Game: Offense	60.9

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Kyler Murray	QB10
James Conner	RB11
Emari Demercado	RB65
Marvin Harrison	WR29
Michael Wilson	WR62
Greg Dortch	WR87
Trey McBride	TE3
Chad Ryland	K18

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Nothing

Added: More nothing

Literally every single draft pick for the Cardinals belongs to the defensive side of the ball. I guess we know where they thought their issues were in ’24.

We like to say “continuity is king” when it comes to offensive line performance, and Arizona definitely has that going for them as they return all five starters. That’s not the best thing, considering the performance of RG Isaiah Adams, but four out of five ain’t bad.

The coaching staff and front office are unchanged from 2024. We expect schemes to remain unchanged as well.

Looking Ahead to the Arizona Cardinals in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Kyler Murray	3
James Conner, Trey Benson	4
Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch	3
Trey McBride	5
Chad Ryland	3

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Kyler Murray	QB15
James Conner	RB26
Trey Benson	RB37
Marvin Harrison	WR19
Michael Wilson	WR76
Greg Dortch	WR114
Trey McBride	TE1
Chad Ryland	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ New Orleans	W
2	Carolina	W
3	@ San Francisco	L
4	Seattle	L
5	Tennessee	W
6	@ Indianapolis	L
7	Green Bay	L
8	BYE	–
9	@ Dallas	W
10	@ Seattle	W
11	San Francisco	W
12	Jacksonville	W
13	@ Tampa Bay	L
14	Los Angeles Rams	W
15	@ Houston	L
16	Atlanta	W
17	@ Cincinnati	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 9-7

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Cardinals

“Lou, you didn’t rank Chad Ryland!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. He’s a kicker. He’s a Chad. That’s all I’ve got.

When it comes to Kyler Murray, QB15 is probably too low when you consider where he’ll likely finish the season. I absolutely acknowledge that. However, I’m not here to try and win awards for “most correct rankings.” I’m here to let you know who I think will be most useful for fantasy. Kyler Murray is who he is at QB, and that’s a guy who can only run a limited offense and will make goofy decisions at times. To that end, there are 14 QBs I’d rather have than him. Maybe that sounds overly harsh, but sometimes tough love is what people need. Now eat your vegetables.

We were a year too early on Trey Benson last year. It’s OK, it happens. But it’s important to know that last year isn’t this year, and things change in the NFL, even when it looks like everything stays the same for a team like the Cardinals. Jonathan Gannon and company have told us repeatedly that James Conner and Trey Benson will operate as RBs 1a and 1b. I didn’t want to believe it at first because we’ve consistently underestimated Conner. But the first two preseason games have borne Gannon’s assertions out. 

Look, I know I just made the point that things change, so I do understand I sound like a hypocrite here. I get it. And for what it’s worth, I do think Marvin Harrison is worth a look earlier in your drafts than he was in ’24. However, the passing offense will continue to run through Trey McBride. 147 targets in ’24 and not a soul on offense is different in ’25.

If There is a League Winner In Arizona, It’s…

Kyler Murray?

Look, I know what I said before, you don’t have to rub it in. I will acknowledge that, despite how I think about Murray as a QB, he’s Done The Thing (had massive fantasy success) before. Yes, it’s been a few years now, and I believe he is who he is. But what if I’m wrong?

What if Murray returns to his 2020 form and starts running with wild abandon? What if he capitalizes on that athleticism of his and runs like the waterbug he is to another 11 rushing TD season? Murray was QB2 overall that year. That’s the definition of league winning, right there. Especially if you can get him at QB10 or later. So while I might not think Murray is worth that pick, I do understand it if you do, and I’m not mad about it.

You were expecting me to say “I’m just disappointed,” weren’t you? You’ll need to stick around longer than this to figure me out.

Deep League Draft Target

Michael Wilson isn’t exactly a household name, and it’s for good reason. With a WR76 finish in ’24, he’s an afterthought in an offense that really only runs through one-and-a-half players. However, there was a stretch last year where Wilson was flirting with WR3 production. If there’s an additional focus on his role or if the running game suffers a big setback, there’s reason to think he could see additional work.

With an ADP of 273 according to FantasyPros, Michael Wilson falls in that range of players you don’t feel bad about churning through as fantasy news breaks.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.