Welcome to the NFC South version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Atlanta Falcons. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Atlanta Falcons in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-8.11 –
4th Down Go For It!	26.72 +
Target GINI	0.5539
Rushing GINI	0.7128
Plays/Game: Offense	63.9

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Kirk Cousins	QB21
Bijan Robinson	RB4
Tyler Allgeier	RB43
Drake London	WR5
Darnell Mooney	WR31
Ray-Ray McCloud	WR56
Kyle Pitts	TE15
Younghoe Koo	K23

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Nobody

Added: Lenny Krieg (K)

The Falcons reportedly didn’t meet with a single offensive player at the NFL Combine, and it showed. The only offensive player they selected was OT Jack Nelson in the 7th round of the NFL draft.

On the better side of average, the Falcons’ offensive line returns 4 of 5 starters along the line. The exception is C Drew Dalman, who moved on to the Bears, and the Falcons are replacing him with Ryan Neuzil.

The front office is completely unchanged from ’24 to ’25, and we can expect the schemes to stay largely the same as well. 

Looking Ahead to the Atlanta Falcons in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Michael Penix	2
Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier	5
Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud	4
Kyle Pitts	2
Younghoe Koo	1

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Michael Penix	QB23
Bijan Robinson	RB1
Tyler Allgeier	RB50
Drake London	WR8
Darnell Mooney	WR44
Ray-Ray McCloud	–
Kyle Pitts	TE20
Younghoe Koo	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	Tampa Bay	W
2	@ Minnesota	L
3	@ Carolina	L
4	Washington	W
5	BYE	–
6	Buffalo	L
7	@ San Francisco	L
8	Miami	L
9	@ New England	W
10	@ Indianapolis	L
11	Carolina	L
12	@ New Orleans	W
13	@ New York Jets	W
14	Seattle	W
15	@ Tampa Bay	L
16	@ Arizana	L
17	Los Angeles Rams	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 6-10

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Falcons

“Lou, you didn’t rank Younghoe Koo!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. For the first time in his career, he was #NotGood in 2024, and they brought in competition for him. Do with that information what you will.

Two guys I’m not going to spend a lot of time on are Bijan Robinson and Drake London. They’re both superbly talented players, and they’re both going very high in fantasy drafts. Rightly so. We got to see firsthand what Robinson was capable of when he wasn’t sharing a backfield last year, and it was a thing of beauty. Despite finishing as the WR5 in ’24, there was still meat left on the bone for London thanks to a relatively inept passing attack. Every report out of Falcons training camp is that Michael Penix and London have been making beautiful music together. Draft accordingly.

In a rather odd twist of fate, who the Falcons are in 2025 is very much the same as who the Falcons were in 2024, with one notable exception: QB. While the Falcons went into ’24 with veteran Kirk Cousins at the helm, now they pivot to sophomore QB Michael Penix. While we’d normally think of this as a downgrade for Atlanta’s skill position players, Cousins was so ineffective that it’s hard to imagine a true step backward for anyone. Maybe more of a step to the side? Of course, rather than cut him loose or trade him, Atlanta decided to keep Cousins in the fold, yet another step to the side in case Penix falls flat. And now we’re doing the cha cha.

One player, well two players really, to keep an eye on are Darnell Mooney and Casey Washington. Mooney is dealing with a shoulder injury, and the team is either unsure or being coy with the public about when he’ll return. Mooney is a great value where he’s going in drafts if he’s able to come back in time for the regular season. If he’s not, that’s where Washington comes in. The Falcons have given Washington the veteran treatment throughout the preseason thus far. That is to say, Washington hasn’t appeared in any preseason games, and it looks like he’s the replacement for Mooney if Mooney misses any time.

You know the names Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, and nothing much has changed with either. Robinson belongs in the top couple of picks of your draft, almost regardless of scoring format. Allgeier remains one of the better handcuffs. We shouldn’t overlook the fact that Allgeier’s days of being a standalone RB in his own right are behind him now, as the Falcons have finally decided to lean into their sublimely talented Robinson more exclusively. To that end, make sure you’re not overdrafting Allgeier, expecting him to provide RB2/3 numbers as he has for a couple of years.

I really don’t want to talk about Kyle Pitts; it depresses me. He’s just not the same player after all his injuries. He doesn’t move the same way, he doesn’t trust his body the same way, and it even looks like the Falcons don’t know how to use him as a result. I hope I’m wrong and this is the year he bounces back, I really do. Man, what could have been….

If There is a League Winner In Atlanta, It’s…

Oh, it’s definitely Tyler Allgeier.

“But, you just said,” Ok, look, I know what I said, OK? And stuff can be two things, right? This is one of those times. Gone are the days of Allgeier having RB2-3 value in his own right. However, he can absolutely win your league for you if things break right.

Not all “handcuff” RBs are the same. Handcuffs are when you take a backup RB in hopes that something will happen to the incumbent, so the backup you drafted starts getting a lot of work. Some handcuffs are Sincere McCormick. However, if something, fantasy football gods forbid, happens to Bijan, Allgeier would instantly be an RB1/2. You don’t want to fill your valuable bench slots with them, but it pays to know who the priorities are, and Allgeier is definitely one of them.

Deep League Draft Target

The fantasy community is overlooking Ray-Ray McCloud, and I’m not quite sure why. Atlanta’s defense has been garbage forever. And while they’re trying to right that ship, it will take time at best, and the offense will need to pull more weight in the meantime. Then you add to this the fact that Darnell Mooney still doesn’t have a timeframe to return to play, and suddenly, McCloud is the only veteran WR on the roster outside of Drake London who has seen extensive playing time.

With an ADP of 282 according to FantasyPros, Ray-Ray McCloud could provide some nice WR3/4 value at times throughout the season, especially if Mooney is out for a prolonged period of time.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.