Welcome to the AFC East version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Buffalo Bills. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Buffalo Bills in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-2.94
4th Down – Go For It!	24.60 +
Target GINI	0.441 –
Rushing GINI	0.6658
Plays/Game – Offense	61.2

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

The good news: Buffalo was incredibly aggressive on 4th down in ’24. This allowed their dominant rushing attack to convert a metric ton of rushing TDs. 32 rushing TDs, to be exact. That’s 10 more than the vaunted Baltimore rushing offense.

The bad news: Buffalo’s passing attack was very flat in 2024, as noted by their Target GINI of 0.441. Buffalo lost Stefon Diggs and his 160 targets, and the expectation was that they would concentrate the offense through someone else. Instead, seven players had at least 40 targets in 2024, with James Cook just barely missing that threshold with 38. 

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Josh Allen	QB4
James Cook	RB8
Ray Davis	RB38
Khalil Shakir	WR38
Keon Coleman	WR68
Amari Cooper	WR63
Dalton Kincaid	TE29
Tyler Bass	K10

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper

Added: Josh Palmer, Elijah Moore

Buffalo also spent a ton of draft capital on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo had an awful time getting off the field on 3rd down in ’24, and it looks like they wanted to rectify that. 

Buffalo’s offensive line is unchanged from ’24 to ’25.

All significant parts of the coaching staff and front office remain the same, so we don’t expect to see big changes in philosophy.

Looking Ahead to Buffalo in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Josh Allen	5
James Cook, Ray Davis	4
Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer	2
Dalton Kincaid	2
Tyler Bass	3

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Josh Allen	QB3
James Cook	RB8
Ray Davis	RB45
Khalil Shakir	WR27
Keon Coleman	WR50
Josh Palmer	WR69
Dalton Kincaid	TE7
Tyler Bass	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	Baltimore	L
2	@ New York Jets	W
3	Miami	W
4	New Orleans	W
5	New England	W
6	@ Atlanta	W
7	BYE	–
8	@ Carolina	W
9	Kansas City	W
10	@ Miami	W
11	Tampa Bay	W
12	@ Houston	L
13	@ Pittsburgh	W
14	Cincinnati	L
15	@ New England	W
16	@ Cleveland	W
17	Philadelphia	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 12-4

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Bills

“Lou, you didn’t rank Tyler Bass!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. The best thing I can tell you is Buffalo has faith in Bass, and he’s not facing any competition for the job.

With regard to how the team will perform in 2025, we should expect more of what we saw in 2024. The biggest difference is Dalton Kincaid. Even with the myriad of injuries Kincaid suffered in ’24, he still maintained a season-long pace of 90 targets. It’s not enough to put him at the top of the position, but we can’t look past 90+ targets in an offense as prolific as Buffalo’s.

The big thing to keep in mind is Buffalo’s OL is good enough to impose their will, and they will Run The Damn Ball™ when they have the lead. This keeps Cook, Allen, and Davis’ value afloat even if the rushing TD total from ’24 isn’t repeatable. However, the flip side to that is they will stop throwing the ball when they get a lead they can sit on. This will take the air out of Shakir, Coleman, and Kincaid’s performance, in addition to the relatively flat target distribution.

If There is a League Winner In Buffalo, it’s…

Ray Davis.

Let’s talk about Ray Davis. I currently have Ray Davis ranked 7 spots below where he finished in 2024. For a talented 2nd-year RB, this seems like an oversight. But is it? 

Draftniks lauded the 2025 RB class as deep and talented. NFL teams proved this accurate as they selected 25 RBs through the seven rounds compared to 19 in 2024’s class. Why does this matter? Well, it’s not that I necessarily think that Davis will do worse than he did in 2024. It’s more that I believe others will do better and leapfrog him.

Of course, that’s assuming starter James Cook stays healthy. We can’t predict injuries, of course. However, Buffalo is an excellent offense that likes to run the ball, especially around the goalline. Get Davis at a discount compared to his ’24 finish, and you’re looking at league-winning upside with an extended Cook absence. 

Deep League Draft Target

I’m giving you a two-for-one today. WRs Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore both hold significant promise. Particularly if injuries befall Khalil Shakir and/or Keon Coleman again. Palmer is the first real downfield threat Buffalo has had since Stefon Diggs in early 2023, and Moore’s skill set is pretty redundant with Shakir’s. In ’24, the offense ground to a halt when injury sidelined Shakir briefly.

You can get both outside of the top 200 picks per FantasyPros, with Moore barely breaking the top 300 overall.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.