Welcome to the NFC South version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Carolina Panthers. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Carolina Panthers in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-2.21
4th Down Go For It!	23.62
Target GINI	0.5226
Rushing GINI	0.8057 +
Plays/Game: Offense	58.4 –

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Bryce Young	QB20
Chuba Hubbard	RB15
Miles Sanders	RB55
Adam Thielen	WR51
Xavier Legette	WR64
Jalen Coker	WR82
Ja’Tavion Sanders	TE36
Eddy Piñeiro	K25

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Miles Sanders

Added: Tetairoa McMillan, Rico Dowdle, Hunter Renfrow, Trevor Etienne, Jimmy Horn

Carolina was a terrible team in ’24, and it shows, with a ton of additions who could see significant playing time. McMillan headlined their additions and draft class, but don’t overlook the potential impacts of Dowdle or Renfrow.

Continuity is king here. The Panthers didn’t add anyone to an offensive line unit that still needs to improve, but they didn’t lose anyone either. In the ever-changing world of the NFL, that’s significant in its own right. Don’t expect this to be a top-end unit, but if it can shore up its pass-blocking, it can definitely be on the better side of serviceable.

The front office is completely unchanged from ’24 to ’25, and we can expect the schemes to stay largely the same as well. 

Looking Ahead to the Carolina Panthers in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Bryce Young	3
Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle	4
Tetairoa McMillan (R), Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker	3
Ja’Tavion Sanders	2
Matthew Wright	1

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Bryce Young	QB14
Chuba Hubbard	RB19
Rico Dowdle	RB39
Tetairoa McMillan (R)	WR35
Adam Thielen	WR50
Jalen Coker	WR67
Ja’Tavion Sanders	TE25
Matthew Wright	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Jacksonville	W
2	@ Arizona	L
3	Atlanta	W
4	@ New England	W
5	Miami	W
6	Dallas	W
7	@ New York Jets	L
8	Buffalo	L
9	@ Green Bay	L
10	New Orleans	W
11	@ Atlanta	W
12	@ San Francisco	L
13	Los Angeles Rams	L
14	BYE	–
15	@ New Orleans	L
16	Tampa Bay	L
17	Seattle	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 8-8

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Panthers

“Lou, you didn’t rank Matthew Wright!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Wright or wrong, you can’t make me care about their kicker.

Whew, lots to talk about here. Let’s start with their QB. Yes, Bryce Young had a terrible start to his career, no doubt about it. However, he was remarkably OK after he returned from his benching in Week 8 to the tune of a QB12 performance through the end of the year. Not exactly earth-shattering, but that’s absolutely good enough to support fantasy weapons. Young is actually one of my favorite values this year. The fantasy community clearly has no faith in him and is drafting him as the QB25.

Chuba Hubbard was one of the breakout stars in 2024, and his heroic overtime performance in Week 16 broke/won more than a few hearts, depending on which side you were on. However, a word of warning – that’s unlikely to repeat in 2025. That Rushing GINI is obviously notably high, and the Carolina front office clearly knows it. Enter Rico Dowdle. Now, Dowdle won’t necessarily take the job away from Hubbard or anything like that, but he will lower Hubbard’s ceiling. By that, I just mean that the plan is for Dowdle to be the 3rd-down and 2-minute RB, not Hubbard. Whereas Hubbard was both last year, thanks to the litany of JAGs (Just A Guy) behind him in ’24.

This Carolina WR room is fascinating. I absolutely expect Tetairoa “TMac” McMillan to lead them in performance, but it’s kinda wide open and in flux behind him. Xavier Legette was the darling of Carolina’s ’24 draft, but he’s been inconsistent at best, and Jalen Coker has routinely outplayed him thus far. Adam Thielen has been a stalwart forever, but recently unretired Hunter Renfrow can play the same role and actually has some speed to go with it. Even 7th-round draft pick Jimmy Horn has routinely made head-turning plays throughout training camp. With a situation this unsettled, it’s one to keep your eye on for developments throughout the season.

Speaking of pass-catchers, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Ja’Tavion Sanders. The forgotten man in the Panthers’ offense, thanks to a scary-looking injury in ’24, Sanders has been one of Young’s favorite and consistent targets throughout training camp. Sanders’ skills always needed a bit of seasoning, but his receiving talent was never in question. Even with that in mind, Sanders earned 5+ targets in five games in ’24. If he’s a routine part of the Carolina offense, Sanders will blow away my TE25 ranking and will threaten that low TE1 tier of players.

If There is a League Winner In Carolina, It’s…

Kind of a mystery (Sarah McLachlan plays softly in the distance).

Ok, ok, I’ll stop being coy. You know how I talked about the WR room and how it’s evolving? Well, it’s probably one of them, but I genuinely couldn’t tell you which. It will all depend on how things move throughout the year. Which, yes, duh, but at the same time, I can’t say “Keep your eye on this one guy and if he gets close, it’s go time!” The entire Panthers’ WR corps is this amorphous blob, and any number of different players could be correct.

Instead of giving you just one name, I’ll rank them in terms of how likely they are to be a league winner, along with a quick blurb.

1 – Tetairoa McMillan: If there’s gonna be a ’25 Naber/Thomas, it’s him. 

2 – Hunter Renfrow: All the skills are still there, and only Adam “Methuselah” Thielen is in front of him.

3 – Jalen Coker: Proved he can play in ’24, and only Legette is in his way.

4 – Jimmy Horn: Needs to make the roster first, but he’s got a gear nobody else on the team has.

Deep League Draft Target

I lauded Rico Dowdle as the player who will suppress Chuba Hubbard’s upside a bit, and I do stand by that. However, rookie Trevor “Not Travis” Etienne has the talent and speed to play the same role if presented with the opportunity. The NFL season is long and grinding, and injuries happen. Etienne the Younger can absolutely return RB3 value due to injuries or bye weeks if he can get some regular playing time.

With an ADP of 269 according to FantasyPros, people are drafting Trevor, but not until the 23rd+ round.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.