Welcome to the NFC East version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Dallas Cowboys. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Dallas Cowboys in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-2.34
4th Down Go For It!	21.05
Target GINI	0.5603
Rushing GINI	0.6595
Plays/Game: Offense	64.9 +

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Dak Prescott	QB31
Rico Dowdle	RB21
Ezekiel Elliott	RB62
CeeDee Lamb	WR8
Jalen Tolbert	WR45
KaVontae Turpin	WR83
Jake Ferguson	TE30
Brandon Aubrey	K2

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott

Added: George Pickens, Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Jaydon Blue, Phil Mafah

That’s a lot of names at the RB who are changing without a single “difference maker.” At least, we don’t think so. Aside from that position, the offense looks strikingly similar to last year.

Dallas’ punishing offensive line of yesteryear has, well, gone the way of yesteryear. Now, there are more questions than there are answers about the unit. As of today, a myriad of injuries have hit Dallas’ offensive line, throwing it into even more disarray. If anything is going to derail what should be a high-powered offense, it’s the O-line.

The GM of the Cowboys is ever-present, thanks to Jerry Jones‘ role as owner and GM. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing is a matter of perspective. Brand-new head coach Brian Schottenheimer takes over the reins with former OL coach Klayton Adams as his offensive coordinator. 

Looking Ahead to the Dallas Cowboys in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Dak Prescott	4
Javonte Williams, Jaydon Blue (R)	1
CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jalen Tolbert	5
Jake Ferguson	2
Brandon Aubrey	5

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Dak Prescott	QB8
Javonte Williams	RB37
Jaydon Blue (R)	RB52
CeeDee Lamb	WR3
George Pickens	WR13
Jalen Tolbert	WR82
Jake Ferguson	TE16
Brandon Aubrey	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Philadelphia	L
2	New York Giants	W
3	@ Chicago	L
4	Green Bay	L
5	@ New York Jets	W
6	@ Carolina	L
7	Washington	W
8	@ Denver	W
9	Arizona	L
10	BYE	–
11	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W
12	Philadelphia	L
13	Kansas City	L
14	@ Detroit	L
15	Minnesota	L
16	Los Angeles Chargers	W
17	@ Washington	L

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Cowboys

“Lou, you didn’t rank Brandon Aubrey!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Brandon Aubrey is very good and can kick the ball accurately a long, long way. 

Alright, let’s get the Jerry Jones/Micah Parsons stuff out of the way. I do not understand what game Jones is playing, and yes, I believe Parsons will play for Dallas at some point this year. No, the Dallas defense isn’t worth the paper this article is printed on if Parsons doesn’t play. And since this article isn’t printed on any paper, well, you see where I’m going with this.

Alright, that’s enough of that doom and gloom. Well, not quite. New head coach and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and Klayton Adams bring a ton of inexperience to their respective roles. Therefore, there’s reason to be skeptical that the whole house of cards will come tumbling down.

But I’m not gonna do that! I’m here to tell you that I think you’re too low on George Pickens. George Pickens, the disgruntled Steelers WR?! The very one, although he’s in Dallas now. Yes, Pickens is a headcase. However, he’s also a lot closer to CeeDee Lamb’s level than he is Jalen Tolbert’s or KaVontae Turpin’s. In other words, this feels very much like a Bengals situation where they have one stud WR and another who’s a borderline WR1 in his own right. You can see my thoughts when the trade first happened here, and I’ve only become more optimistic as I’ve studied the teams this offseason.

Conversely, there are the Dallas RBs. I was so certain they would make a meaningful investment at RB in the NFL draft, and they just never did. Now, maybe they see Jaydon Blue or Phil Mafah as meaningful investments. I know people have been very excited by how electrifying Blue looks in training camp. Every year, it seems we get sucked in by the New Hotness; meanwhile, the Old And Busted gets way more work than we think they should. If you’re counting on Blue to play a big role this year, consider yourself warned. With that being said…

If There is a League Winner On Dallas, It’s…

Yeah, it’s Jaydon Blue. Not exactly a shock.

Alright, you got the bearish before. He’s also not big, 5’9″ and 196 lbs, so the odds of Dallas featuring him as a lead RB aren’t great. OK, now I’m done, promise!

You deserve a treat for putting up with all of the bearishness. Now here’s the bullish: Blue has never lacked speed and explosiveness in his game. On the contrary, he has both in spades. He’s repeatedly demonstrating solid decision-making when it comes to patience behind the line of scrimmage, as well as vision to hit the right holes.

Reports coming out of training camp have been absolutely stellar regarding Blue’s performance. Beat writers are already bandying about the idea that Blue is likely the 3rd-down RB. Jaydon has never even been average at pass-blocking, so if he’s truly rectifying this, it’s a big deal. He’s one I’ll be keeping a close eye on throughout the preseason.

Don’t let the diminutive stature of Blue scare you off of him. We’re seeing RBs like Bucky Irving, James Cook, and Jahmyr Gibbs excel, and they are all in the same range for physical build.

Deep League Draft Target

We’re all about the Benjamins, I mean RBs, baby! Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders have already failed out of at least one other situation each. While I extolled the virtues of Jaydon Blue above, he’s not without considerable downside himself. Who else is left? Fellow rookie Phil Mafah, for one. The Cowboys’ coaching staff has been very complimentary of Mafah’s tough-nosed running and decision-making throughout training camp. Unlike his fellow rookie, Mafah’s pass-blocking acumen is a strength of his. With an opportunity, Mafah absolutely could, ahem, run with it.

With an ADP barely on the tracker at 332 according to FantasyPros, Phil Mafah makes for a reasonable dart throw, especially if he can stick on the final 53-man roster.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.