Rankings are great; they give us a great starting point for making lineup decisions. But they’re also just one data point. Experts also have substantial differences in how they view player values compared to the consensus ranks. It’s all a gamble in the end.

Here at Optimus Fantasy, we want you to feel confident about your lineup decisions. So every week, we’re going to bring you a roundtable from our experts highlighting players they’re significantly higher or lower on than consensus ranks, and why. You know, just like the card game. Simple enough, right? Come on down and play Higher/Lower with us!

Players We Are Higher On:

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Consensus Rank: RB12

Evan’s Rank: RB8

Listen up, fantasy football community, James Conner is probably not going to get injured. You can start him with complete confidence that he will rip apart the Saints’ defense. This off-season, the Saints did nothing to improve their run defense, which finished second-to-last in yards given up per game last year. Last year, the Cardinals were a middle-of-the-road passing offense and the 7th highest in average rushing yards per game, with Conner operating as their bell cow. This offseason, the Cardinals extended Conner’s contract by another 2 years for $19M total. “Trey Benson season” won’t happen until Conner can no longer do the job. This game has blowout potential written all over it, which allows Conner to get more volume to help run down the clock in the second half. He should have little trouble totaling RB1 fantasy points this week.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

Consensus Rank: RB16

Nate’s rank: RB10

It’s unlikely I’ll recommend starting Chuba Hubbard this often this season, but match-ups matter. Yeah, the Carolina offense probably isn’t going to be good. However, a mostly unchanged Jaguars defense gave up 24 FPPG to RBs last season, the second-most behind Carolina. Barring a Rico Dowdle breakout game, Hubbard is a solid back-end RB1 start in Week 1. 

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots

Consensus Rank: TE14

Nate’s rank: TE8

A Josh McDaniels offense is nothing without erratic TE usage, and this season will be no different. This week, however, the Patriots play a hapless Las Vegas defense that will struggle to cover Hunter Henry. We live in a world where 10 fantasy points could be a top-12 finish at TE, and this feels like a week the veteran New England bookend can fall into that easily. 

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears

Consensus Rank: QB19

Lou’s Rank: QB6

Ok, this is the year the Bears’ offense takes off, right? Last year was a mulligan? I know Brian Flores’ defense is the reason for Caleb’s rough consensus ranking, but in Ben Johnson, I trust. Even more, in Chicago’s pass-catching weapons, I trust.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers

Consensus Rank: WR19

Kevin’s Rank: WR11

The second I saw Tetairoa McMillan put Houston’s Derek Stingley on skates in the preseason, McMillan entered my will. He’s like a son to me now. All jokes aside, McMillan’s runway for massive fantasy production gets an awesome first rodeo against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags were the fourth-worst fantasy defense against wide receivers last season, and they didn’t do too much to significantly change the defense’s fortunes this season besides adding Travis Hunter, who is unlikely to see much of McMillan. 

The quad injury to Jalen Coker and the trade of octogenarian Adam Thielen have resulted in some shuffling of deck chairs in the Panthers’ passing game. Still, McMillan’s perch at the top remains unchanged from preseason. As one of the most efficient wide receivers in college football the last couple of seasons, McMillan’s primed for a fast start for an ascending offense in Carolina.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Consensus Rank: 38

Bryan’s Rank: 30

The Seattle Seahawks have signaled all offseason that they plan to run the ball early and often. Most of that workload should go to Ken Walker, and everyone can agree on that. However, what we’ve seen in the past is KW3’s inability to stay healthy for an entire season. This is where Zach Charbonnet comes into play. The Seahawks might not want to fully rely on Kenneth Walker in the season opener. I see a scenario where the two share time, aiming to keep Walker healthy for the long haul while Charbonnet capitalizes on the opportunity. 

Players We Are Lower On:

Minnesota Vikings, D/ST

Consensus Rank: DST5

Evan’s Rank DST14

The Minnesota Vikings have some fantastic playmakers in their front and middle, led by an underrated defensive coordinator in Brian Flores. However, their secondary is weak. The Vikings didn’t do enough to improve their passing defense this offseason. Last season, the Vikings were the 5th-worst passing defense in the NFL, averaging 242 passing yards given up per game. Running the football against the Vikings will still be difficult, as they finished 2nd in fewest yards given up per game last year.

Considering the offensive weapons both the Bears and Vikings have, I don’t expect either of their defenses to be fantasy-friendly this week in total points. If you have better options to start this week, then do that until the Vikings face weaker offenses.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Consensus Rank: WR44

Nate’s rank: WR55

I have two words: Daniel Jones. Fresh scenery might help some, but Jones is Jones, and it’s impossible to trust any of the fantasy assets outside of Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis. Yes, Josh Downs will certainly see targets, but the quality of those isn’t guaranteed. Couple that with a match-up against a stingy Dolphins pass defense, and you have a recipe to keep Downs on your fantasy bench to start the season.

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Consensus Rank: QB26

Nate’s rank: QB30

After Sam Darnold’s breakout season in the “Land of 10,000 Lakes” last season, you might be tempted to fire up the veteran signal-caller as your QB2 in Superflex and 2QB formats. 

Don’t do it.

The embattled QB is on a new team with a putrid offensive line. Yes, he has weapons, but the Seahawks drew a 49ers defensive unit that doesn’t give up much to QBs. There will be a time and a place to fire up Darnold in your lineups; this week isn’t it.  

Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Consensus Rank: RB18

Lou’s Rank: RB29

Starting rookies in muddy situations in Week 1 will lead to a bad time more often than not. That describes Hampton’s plight exactly, and for a coach like Jim Harbaugh, who’s notorious for slow-playing rookies. All that, plus a talented and scrappy Kansas City defense with literally all offseason to plan.

Nick Chubb, RB, Houston Texans

Consensus Rank: RB38

Kevin’s Rank: RB47

I’m not even sure what we’re supposed to do with Nick Chubb at this point; I feel like Ricky Bobby when he doesn’t know what to do with his hands. Fantasy managers who drafted him are going to have that same feeling as Chubb is slated for a starting role against a stout Rams defense in Week 1. Chubb rushed for 3.3 yards per carry last season, and despite the Rams’ inability to stop the run last season (third-most yards per rush allowed in 2024), I’m just not sure it matters too much if Chubb can’t take advantage of it at this stage of his career.

Chubb is entirely touchdown-dependent, and while he may trot one in, it’s unlikely that Chubb is going to add on much in the way of yardage. He’s been close to a zero in the receiving game throughout much of his career, so the floor and ceiling here are way too close together to care. Chubb has had a nice run in his career, but he’s far from worthy of a starting spot on your fantasy roster.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

Consensus Rank: 18

Bryan’s Rank: 25

Terry McLaurin finally got paid, but it came a bit too close to the season opener for my liking. Players who sit out of camp for a new contract usually need some ramp-up time to get back into the swing of things. McLaurin, while I do believe he will be a great asset as the year progresses, doesn’t feel like a player I must start to kick off the year. The Giants’ defense isn’t horrid, and I would be hesitant to fire up McLaurin if I had another option on my bench. 

---