Tell your friends (just not your leaguemates until next week)
by Optimus Staff
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, step right up and welcome to the Week 13 Spectacular! Thanksgiving is almost here, but before you get swept into a whirlwind of turkey, travel, and whatever emotional turbulence your family tradition guarantees, we’ve got one more “show” for you.
Our writers have locked in their higher/lower picks for the week, and they’re ready to shout them from the mountaintops with the confidence of someone claiming they “totally knew” that sleeper breakout was coming.
Some players are rising, some are falling, and some are poised to ruin your holiday mood faster than that weird relative of yours. So grab a seat, grab your favorite snack and get ready because it’s time to see who we’re backing and fading heading into Week 13.
As a reminder, each of our analysts’ rankings can be found by simply clicking on their names below. We have linked them for you.
Higher or Lower? Fantasy Football Players We’re Backing or Fading in Week 13
Players We Are Higher On:
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Consensus Rank: RB39
Nate’s Rank: RB30 (+9)
Not many would argue against the fact that Falcions RB Tyler Allgeier is one of the top RB handcuffs in fantasy football right now. He sits behind elite RB Bijan Robinson in an offense now featuring veteran QB Kirk Cousins, who has seen better days. Furthermore, even as the team’s clear RB2, Allgeier still sees volume week in and week out, logging 324 rushing yards and seven TDs on 89 carries.
With second-year QB Michael Penix (ACL) out for the season and Cousins at the helm, the Falcons’ offense will look to lean on both Robsinson and Allegeier moving forward. While some weeks the latter won’t figure in, this isn’t one of those weeks. Atlanta travels to Met Life Stadium this weekend to face a Jets’ defense giving up an average of 21.5 fantasy points to RBs this season. While it will always be the Bijan Show when he’s healthy, I expect Allgeier to get junk time carries and figure in for some goalline work. If you’re looking for a viable flex with decent upside, Allgeier is it this week.
Falcons HC Raheem Morris on Tyler Allgeier:
“Tyler is the least-talked about superstar on our football team.” pic.twitter.com/uciCk9Z32d
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 12, 2025
Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
Consensus Rank: TE23
Nate’s Rank: TE14 (+9)
If there was ever a week to fire up veteran TE MIke Gesicki in hopes of a boom game, this is it, folks. The stars have aligned for the Bengals’ bookend, with the return of Joe Burrow ahead of schedule, WR Tee Higgins (concussion) ruled out, and his ailing pectoral finally being healthy.
I’ll concede the matchup this Thursday against Baltimore isn’t great, given they’re the eighth-best defense against fantasy TEs. However, in games where the Bengals have been down either Higgins or WR Ja’Marr Chase, Gesicki has averaged seven targets, five catches and 58 receiving yards per game.
This is a division rivalry game, and the Bengals, whether foolish or not, believe they can get into the playoffs. We know Burrow is going to air it out, and Gesicki could be the veteran QB’s number two target. I have Gesicki at TE19, which, while way ahead of consensus, might not be high enough. He’s definitely worth a look in your flex slot this week, and could even be a viable TE start over the likes of Kyle Pitts and Juwan Johnson.
Mike Gesicki returned to the field in Week 12 and ran 26 routes to Noah Fant‘s 7 while hitting a season high 17.6% target share.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 24, 2025
Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants
Consensus Rank: RB27
Bryan’s Rank: RB22 (+5)
The Patriots have a great rush defense – there’s no denying that. But without Milton Williams in the lineup, Chase Brown was able to crack the 100-yard mark in a close game last week. While I don’t think the Giants’ offense is as strong as the Bengals’, I do think Tracy has an opportunity to succeed in this matchup.
Whether it’s Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston, this Giants offense will need to keep up with the Patriots in this game. I do think Tracy’s ability to run routes out of the backfield will prove to be key in this one. I think Tracy ends up as a high-end flex play this week.
Tyrone Tracy (averaging 113 scrimmage yards across his past three games) in Week 12:
+ 72% snap rate
+ 23 touches
+ 3 of 4 RB rushes from inside the 10 (with a 75% red zone snap rate)— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 23, 2025
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans
Consensus Rank: RB24
Bryan’s Rank: RB18 (+6)
Don’t look now, but the Texans have won three in a row with Davis Mills under center. Just as we all would have expected, during this span, we’ve seen Marks ascend as the number one option in this running back room. He’s proven to be a much more promising option as both a runner and a receiver over fellow RB Nick Chubb. His past two fantasy finishes (RB41, RB27) left owners wanting more, but I think there’s an opportunity for a bounce-back performance against the Colts.
The Houston defense is one of the best in the league, and if the Texans find themselves in a positive game script, Marks could be in line for a busy afternoon. Last week, Kareem Hunt saw 30(!) carries for over 100 yards – while I don’t think Marks will carry the ball nearly as much, it gives a blueprint to slowing down the explosive Colts offense. Of course, if Houston starts to find themselves on their back foot, Marks comes alive in the passing game.
Woody Marks vs the Bills on TNF:
– 16 Carries
– 74 Yards
– 5 Missed Tackles Forced
– 45 yards after the missed tackles
– 84 yards after contact
– 43.8% rushing success rateAll of which are career highs outside of carries. pic.twitter.com/Mr7YLNUWqw
— Jacob (@TexansJacob) November 24, 2025
Greg Dortch, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Consensus Rank: WR51
Lou’s Rank: WR36 (+15)
I just hope that LaQuan Jones is smiling. Maybe he’s not sure why, but any time Greg Dortch does something good on a football field, my first thought goes to LaQuan and strawberries. Why? Because for two years now, LaQuan has preached the gospel according to Dortch.
Sadly, it hadn’t happened yet because of who was directing the offense. But now? Hoo baby, now we’re cooking! We’ve got a real, professional NFL quarterback in one Mr. Jacoby Brissett. I know, I never thought I’d type that sentence either! But that’s exactly who he is and what he does as he distributes the ball to his playmakers. Dortch may not be the most physically imposing guy, but he’s about half a step faster than anyone trying to tackle him on any given play. As a borderline WR3/Flex play, that’s exactly the type of situation I want to rely on instead of one of the boom/bust options out there.
NOBODY WAS CATCHING GREG DORTCH
JAXvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/RCP45UvU7K
— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2025
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Consensus Rank: TE14
Lou’s Rank: TE4 (+10)
Let me tell you a little story about a school called Penn State. Now, this school churns out athletes like you wouldn’t believe. In fact, just this year, it turned out to be a heck of an NFL prospect named Tyler Warren, the new TE wunderkind for the Colts. Why do I bring up Tyler Warren when the heading says I should be talking about Brenton Strange? I’m so glad you asked. Or rather, so glad I asked. Whatever. I bring it up because Brenton Strange was one of the TEs at Penn State who relegated Tyler Warren to the bench while Strange was in school.
Fast forward to Week 12, Strange’s first week back from IR. He didn’t miss a beat. He was third on the team in targets with five, and caught all five for a gaudy 93 yards. This is not your run-of-the-mill TE who will just catch the ball and fall down, folks. Strange is a legitimate YAC (yards after catch) monster. I understand if Trevor Lawrence fills you with trepidation and distress like you’ve eaten too much pie. I feel the same way about him. But when you have a TE with the ability to turn a short catch into a long gain, you really mitigate a lot of that risk.
Players We Are Lower On:
Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Consensus Rank: RB36
Nate’s Rank: RB41 (-5)
It looks like “Sean Tucker season” in Tampa Bay will officially come to an end this weekend, friends.
After an electric Week 11 performance against Buffalo that saw Tucker log 33 half-PPR fantasy points on his way to an overall RB1 finish. His 19 carries were the most of his career, as were the two rushing TDs Tucker scored. Last week, Tucker came back down to Earth, notching 42 yards and 5.1 fantasy points on 12 carries. Now the Buccaneers are eyeing the return of second-year RB Bucky Irving from IR, which will further push Tucker down the priority list in the Tampa Bay offense. My rank of RB41 has some “in case Teddy Bridgewater starts” baked in, but if it’s Baker Mayfield behind center this weekend, I’ll be surprised to see him as a top 50 RB in Week 13.
Tyrod Taylor, QB, New York Jets
Consensus Rank: QB22
Nate’s Rank: QB26 (-4)
Just because a player is starting at QB in any given week doesn’t mean you have to start them as well. Especially a QB in an offense with no direction, missing its elite WR1. Yes, I’m looking at you, anyone who ranked Tyrod Taylor as a QB2 this week.
I will concede that Taylor is a noticeable improvement over Justin Fields. In both games he’s started this season, the veteran journeyman has logged 13 or more fantasy points. His best performance came against the Buccaneers in Week 3, who are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to the position. Last week, Taylor logged 13.8 fantasy points against Baltimore, who is giving up the 15th most fantasy points to the position.
If it’s Taylor the rest of the way in New York, there will be times where he’s worthy of a look in 2QB and Superflex formats, namely Week 14 against Miami and Week 16 against New Orleans. This week, against a Falcons defense that has been good against QBs, is not the week. I guarantee you have better options.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
Consensus Rank: RB15
Bryan’s Rank: RB21 (-6)
Just when we all thought the Panthers’ offense was clicking, Bryce Young and company disappeared when the lights got bright. The Panthers battle the Rams this weekend, and I couldn’t be more worried about Dowdle’s effectiveness against a team that rolled over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Most teams probably aren’t in a position to bench Dowdle, but just know that a 100-yard outing isn’t in the cards in Week 13.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Consensus Rank: WR18
Bryan’s Rank: WR24 (-6)
The Minnesota Vikings are trotting out third string, UDFA (and UNH legend) Max Brosmer against one of the best defenses in football. I don’t think Jefferson can salvage this one. Adjust expectations accordingly and, if possible, consider pivoting.
RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos
Consensus Rank: RB20
Lou’s Rank: RB36 (-16)
I will fully admit that many things are working in Harvey’s favor. They’re playing Washington, and they can’t defend the run to save their lives. Harvey is now getting the lion’s share of the RB work, now that incumbent J.K. Dobbins is on IR. These are undoubtedly marks in favor of Harvey outperforming my RB36 ranking.
So why am I so down on him? Well, well, well, my old nemesis: Sean Payton. We meet again. I’ve said many times, you can trust Sean Payton if you want to. I do not. As we saw in Week 11, Payton will bring other RBs into the mix even with Harvey there. Payton has a long history of running multiple RBs unless he has a dominant RB in the fold. Maybe Harvey gets to that point one day, but we’re sure not there yet.
Harvey is devastatingly fast, but lacks nuance and decision-making at this point in his career. That might be enough against Washington. But it also puts him in that boom-bust tier as a Flex consideration rather than a mid-RB2.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Consensus Rank: RB23
Lou’s Rank: RB32 (-9)
I’m a bit tired of people saying things like, “When will Zach Charbonnet stop vulturing Kenneth Walker?” At this point, given how they use Charbonnet around the red zone, it would be Walker vulturing Charbonnet more than the reverse. Walker may get the first snaps and the majority of the carries, but when it comes to scoring TDs? That’s Charbonnet’s job and his job alone among the RBs.
It’s so dramatic that Walker has only a single TD since Week 3, when he scored two. Compare that to Charbonnet, who has six over the same timeframe. It’s really difficult to be even an RB2 without scoring TDs. In fact, Walker has managed an RB2 or better finish only three times since his TD drought began in Week 4. Walker is fine as a Flex since he has a reasonable floor, but do yourself a favor and look for an RB2 elsewhere.
For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, step right up and welcome to the Week 13 Spectacular! Thanksgiving is almost here, but before you get swept into a whirlwind of turkey, travel, and whatever emotional turbulence your family tradition guarantees, we’ve got one more “show” for you.
Our writers have locked in their higher/lower picks for the week, and they’re ready to shout them from the mountaintops with the confidence of someone claiming they “totally knew” that sleeper breakout was coming.
Some players are rising, some are falling, and some are poised to ruin your holiday mood faster than that weird relative of yours. So grab a seat, grab your favorite snack and get ready because it’s time to see who we’re backing and fading heading into Week 13.
As a reminder, each of our analysts’ rankings can be found by simply clicking on their names below. We have linked them for you.
Higher or Lower? Fantasy Football Players We’re Backing or Fading in Week 13
Players We Are Higher On:
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Consensus Rank: RB39
Nate’s Rank: RB30 (+9)
Not many would argue against the fact that Falcions RB Tyler Allgeier is one of the top RB handcuffs in fantasy football right now. He sits behind elite RB Bijan Robinson in an offense now featuring veteran QB Kirk Cousins, who has seen better days. Furthermore, even as the team’s clear RB2, Allgeier still sees volume week in and week out, logging 324 rushing yards and seven TDs on 89 carries.
With second-year QB Michael Penix (ACL) out for the season and Cousins at the helm, the Falcons’ offense will look to lean on both Robsinson and Allegeier moving forward. While some weeks the latter won’t figure in, this isn’t one of those weeks. Atlanta travels to Met Life Stadium this weekend to face a Jets’ defense giving up an average of 21.5 fantasy points to RBs this season. While it will always be the Bijan Show when he’s healthy, I expect Allgeier to get junk time carries and figure in for some goalline work. If you’re looking for a viable flex with decent upside, Allgeier is it this week.
Falcons HC Raheem Morris on Tyler Allgeier:
“Tyler is the least-talked about superstar on our football team.” pic.twitter.com/uciCk9Z32d
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 12, 2025
Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
Consensus Rank: TE23
Nate’s Rank: TE14 (+9)
If there was ever a week to fire up veteran TE MIke Gesicki in hopes of a boom game, this is it, folks. The stars have aligned for the Bengals’ bookend, with the return of Joe Burrow ahead of schedule, WR Tee Higgins (concussion) ruled out, and his ailing pectoral finally being healthy.
I’ll concede the matchup this Thursday against Baltimore isn’t great, given they’re the eighth-best defense against fantasy TEs. However, in games where the Bengals have been down either Higgins or WR Ja’Marr Chase, Gesicki has averaged seven targets, five catches and 58 receiving yards per game.
This is a division rivalry game, and the Bengals, whether foolish or not, believe they can get into the playoffs. We know Burrow is going to air it out, and Gesicki could be the veteran QB’s number two target. I have Gesicki at TE19, which, while way ahead of consensus, might not be high enough. He’s definitely worth a look in your flex slot this week, and could even be a viable TE start over the likes of Kyle Pitts and Juwan Johnson.
Mike Gesicki returned to the field in Week 12 and ran 26 routes to Noah Fant‘s 7 while hitting a season high 17.6% target share.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 24, 2025
Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants
Consensus Rank: RB27
Bryan’s Rank: RB22 (+5)
The Patriots have a great rush defense – there’s no denying that. But without Milton Williams in the lineup, Chase Brown was able to crack the 100-yard mark in a close game last week. While I don’t think the Giants’ offense is as strong as the Bengals’, I do think Tracy has an opportunity to succeed in this matchup.
Whether it’s Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston, this Giants offense will need to keep up with the Patriots in this game. I do think Tracy’s ability to run routes out of the backfield will prove to be key in this one. I think Tracy ends up as a high-end flex play this week.
Tyrone Tracy (averaging 113 scrimmage yards across his past three games) in Week 12:
+ 72% snap rate
+ 23 touches
+ 3 of 4 RB rushes from inside the 10 (with a 75% red zone snap rate)— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 23, 2025
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans
Consensus Rank: RB24
Bryan’s Rank: RB18 (+6)
Don’t look now, but the Texans have won three in a row with Davis Mills under center. Just as we all would have expected, during this span, we’ve seen Marks ascend as the number one option in this running back room. He’s proven to be a much more promising option as both a runner and a receiver over fellow RB Nick Chubb. His past two fantasy finishes (RB41, RB27) left owners wanting more, but I think there’s an opportunity for a bounce-back performance against the Colts.
The Houston defense is one of the best in the league, and if the Texans find themselves in a positive game script, Marks could be in line for a busy afternoon. Last week, Kareem Hunt saw 30(!) carries for over 100 yards – while I don’t think Marks will carry the ball nearly as much, it gives a blueprint to slowing down the explosive Colts offense. Of course, if Houston starts to find themselves on their back foot, Marks comes alive in the passing game.
Woody Marks vs the Bills on TNF:
– 16 Carries
– 74 Yards
– 5 Missed Tackles Forced
– 45 yards after the missed tackles
– 84 yards after contact
– 43.8% rushing success rateAll of which are career highs outside of carries. pic.twitter.com/Mr7YLNUWqw
— Jacob (@TexansJacob) November 24, 2025
Greg Dortch, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Consensus Rank: WR51
Lou’s Rank: WR36 (+15)
I just hope that LaQuan Jones is smiling. Maybe he’s not sure why, but any time Greg Dortch does something good on a football field, my first thought goes to LaQuan and strawberries. Why? Because for two years now, LaQuan has preached the gospel according to Dortch.
Sadly, it hadn’t happened yet because of who was directing the offense. But now? Hoo baby, now we’re cooking! We’ve got a real, professional NFL quarterback in one Mr. Jacoby Brissett. I know, I never thought I’d type that sentence either! But that’s exactly who he is and what he does as he distributes the ball to his playmakers. Dortch may not be the most physically imposing guy, but he’s about half a step faster than anyone trying to tackle him on any given play. As a borderline WR3/Flex play, that’s exactly the type of situation I want to rely on instead of one of the boom/bust options out there.
NOBODY WAS CATCHING GREG DORTCH
JAXvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/RCP45UvU7K
— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2025
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Consensus Rank: TE14
Lou’s Rank: TE4 (+10)
Let me tell you a little story about a school called Penn State. Now, this school churns out athletes like you wouldn’t believe. In fact, just this year, it turned out to be a heck of an NFL prospect named Tyler Warren, the new TE wunderkind for the Colts. Why do I bring up Tyler Warren when the heading says I should be talking about Brenton Strange? I’m so glad you asked. Or rather, so glad I asked. Whatever. I bring it up because Brenton Strange was one of the TEs at Penn State who relegated Tyler Warren to the bench while Strange was in school.
Fast forward to Week 12, Strange’s first week back from IR. He didn’t miss a beat. He was third on the team in targets with five, and caught all five for a gaudy 93 yards. This is not your run-of-the-mill TE who will just catch the ball and fall down, folks. Strange is a legitimate YAC (yards after catch) monster. I understand if Trevor Lawrence fills you with trepidation and distress like you’ve eaten too much pie. I feel the same way about him. But when you have a TE with the ability to turn a short catch into a long gain, you really mitigate a lot of that risk.
Players We Are Lower On:
Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Consensus Rank: RB36
Nate’s Rank: RB41 (-5)
It looks like “Sean Tucker season” in Tampa Bay will officially come to an end this weekend, friends.
After an electric Week 11 performance against Buffalo that saw Tucker log 33 half-PPR fantasy points on his way to an overall RB1 finish. His 19 carries were the most of his career, as were the two rushing TDs Tucker scored. Last week, Tucker came back down to Earth, notching 42 yards and 5.1 fantasy points on 12 carries. Now the Buccaneers are eyeing the return of second-year RB Bucky Irving from IR, which will further push Tucker down the priority list in the Tampa Bay offense. My rank of RB41 has some “in case Teddy Bridgewater starts” baked in, but if it’s Baker Mayfield behind center this weekend, I’ll be surprised to see him as a top 50 RB in Week 13.
Tyrod Taylor, QB, New York Jets
Consensus Rank: QB22
Nate’s Rank: QB26 (-4)
Just because a player is starting at QB in any given week doesn’t mean you have to start them as well. Especially a QB in an offense with no direction, missing its elite WR1. Yes, I’m looking at you, anyone who ranked Tyrod Taylor as a QB2 this week.
I will concede that Taylor is a noticeable improvement over Justin Fields. In both games he’s started this season, the veteran journeyman has logged 13 or more fantasy points. His best performance came against the Buccaneers in Week 3, who are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to the position. Last week, Taylor logged 13.8 fantasy points against Baltimore, who is giving up the 15th most fantasy points to the position.
If it’s Taylor the rest of the way in New York, there will be times where he’s worthy of a look in 2QB and Superflex formats, namely Week 14 against Miami and Week 16 against New Orleans. This week, against a Falcons defense that has been good against QBs, is not the week. I guarantee you have better options.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
Consensus Rank: RB15
Bryan’s Rank: RB21 (-6)
Just when we all thought the Panthers’ offense was clicking, Bryce Young and company disappeared when the lights got bright. The Panthers battle the Rams this weekend, and I couldn’t be more worried about Dowdle’s effectiveness against a team that rolled over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Most teams probably aren’t in a position to bench Dowdle, but just know that a 100-yard outing isn’t in the cards in Week 13.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Consensus Rank: WR18
Bryan’s Rank: WR24 (-6)
The Minnesota Vikings are trotting out third string, UDFA (and UNH legend) Max Brosmer against one of the best defenses in football. I don’t think Jefferson can salvage this one. Adjust expectations accordingly and, if possible, consider pivoting.
RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos
Consensus Rank: RB20
Lou’s Rank: RB36 (-16)
I will fully admit that many things are working in Harvey’s favor. They’re playing Washington, and they can’t defend the run to save their lives. Harvey is now getting the lion’s share of the RB work, now that incumbent J.K. Dobbins is on IR. These are undoubtedly marks in favor of Harvey outperforming my RB36 ranking.
So why am I so down on him? Well, well, well, my old nemesis: Sean Payton. We meet again. I’ve said many times, you can trust Sean Payton if you want to. I do not. As we saw in Week 11, Payton will bring other RBs into the mix even with Harvey there. Payton has a long history of running multiple RBs unless he has a dominant RB in the fold. Maybe Harvey gets to that point one day, but we’re sure not there yet.
Harvey is devastatingly fast, but lacks nuance and decision-making at this point in his career. That might be enough against Washington. But it also puts him in that boom-bust tier as a Flex consideration rather than a mid-RB2.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Consensus Rank: RB23
Lou’s Rank: RB32 (-9)
I’m a bit tired of people saying things like, “When will Zach Charbonnet stop vulturing Kenneth Walker?” At this point, given how they use Charbonnet around the red zone, it would be Walker vulturing Charbonnet more than the reverse. Walker may get the first snaps and the majority of the carries, but when it comes to scoring TDs? That’s Charbonnet’s job and his job alone among the RBs.
It’s so dramatic that Walker has only a single TD since Week 3, when he scored two. Compare that to Charbonnet, who has six over the same timeframe. It’s really difficult to be even an RB2 without scoring TDs. In fact, Walker has managed an RB2 or better finish only three times since his TD drought began in Week 4. Walker is fine as a Flex since he has a reasonable floor, but do yourself a favor and look for an RB2 elsewhere.
For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, step right up and welcome to the Week 13 Spectacular! Thanksgiving is almost here, but before you get swept into a whirlwind of turkey, travel, and whatever emotional turbulence your family tradition guarantees, we’ve got one more “show” for you.
Our writers have locked in their higher/lower picks for the week, and they’re ready to shout them from the mountaintops with the confidence of someone claiming they “totally knew” that sleeper breakout was coming.
Some players are rising, some are falling, and some are poised to ruin your holiday mood faster than that weird relative of yours. So grab a seat, grab your favorite snack and get ready because it’s time to see who we’re backing and fading heading into Week 13.
As a reminder, each of our analysts’ rankings can be found by simply clicking on their names below. We have linked them for you.
Higher or Lower? Fantasy Football Players We’re Backing or Fading in Week 13
Players We Are Higher On:
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Consensus Rank: RB39
Nate’s Rank: RB30 (+9)
Not many would argue against the fact that Falcions RB Tyler Allgeier is one of the top RB handcuffs in fantasy football right now. He sits behind elite RB Bijan Robinson in an offense now featuring veteran QB Kirk Cousins, who has seen better days. Furthermore, even as the team’s clear RB2, Allgeier still sees volume week in and week out, logging 324 rushing yards and seven TDs on 89 carries.
With second-year QB Michael Penix (ACL) out for the season and Cousins at the helm, the Falcons’ offense will look to lean on both Robsinson and Allegeier moving forward. While some weeks the latter won’t figure in, this isn’t one of those weeks. Atlanta travels to Met Life Stadium this weekend to face a Jets’ defense giving up an average of 21.5 fantasy points to RBs this season. While it will always be the Bijan Show when he’s healthy, I expect Allgeier to get junk time carries and figure in for some goalline work. If you’re looking for a viable flex with decent upside, Allgeier is it this week.
Falcons HC Raheem Morris on Tyler Allgeier:
“Tyler is the least-talked about superstar on our football team.” pic.twitter.com/uciCk9Z32d
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 12, 2025
Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
Consensus Rank: TE23
Nate’s Rank: TE14 (+9)
If there was ever a week to fire up veteran TE MIke Gesicki in hopes of a boom game, this is it, folks. The stars have aligned for the Bengals’ bookend, with the return of Joe Burrow ahead of schedule, WR Tee Higgins (concussion) ruled out, and his ailing pectoral finally being healthy.
I’ll concede the matchup this Thursday against Baltimore isn’t great, given they’re the eighth-best defense against fantasy TEs. However, in games where the Bengals have been down either Higgins or WR Ja’Marr Chase, Gesicki has averaged seven targets, five catches and 58 receiving yards per game.
This is a division rivalry game, and the Bengals, whether foolish or not, believe they can get into the playoffs. We know Burrow is going to air it out, and Gesicki could be the veteran QB’s number two target. I have Gesicki at TE19, which, while way ahead of consensus, might not be high enough. He’s definitely worth a look in your flex slot this week, and could even be a viable TE start over the likes of Kyle Pitts and Juwan Johnson.
Mike Gesicki returned to the field in Week 12 and ran 26 routes to Noah Fant‘s 7 while hitting a season high 17.6% target share.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 24, 2025
Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants
Consensus Rank: RB27
Bryan’s Rank: RB22 (+5)
The Patriots have a great rush defense – there’s no denying that. But without Milton Williams in the lineup, Chase Brown was able to crack the 100-yard mark in a close game last week. While I don’t think the Giants’ offense is as strong as the Bengals’, I do think Tracy has an opportunity to succeed in this matchup.
Whether it’s Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston, this Giants offense will need to keep up with the Patriots in this game. I do think Tracy’s ability to run routes out of the backfield will prove to be key in this one. I think Tracy ends up as a high-end flex play this week.
Tyrone Tracy (averaging 113 scrimmage yards across his past three games) in Week 12:
+ 72% snap rate
+ 23 touches
+ 3 of 4 RB rushes from inside the 10 (with a 75% red zone snap rate)— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 23, 2025
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans
Consensus Rank: RB24
Bryan’s Rank: RB18 (+6)
Don’t look now, but the Texans have won three in a row with Davis Mills under center. Just as we all would have expected, during this span, we’ve seen Marks ascend as the number one option in this running back room. He’s proven to be a much more promising option as both a runner and a receiver over fellow RB Nick Chubb. His past two fantasy finishes (RB41, RB27) left owners wanting more, but I think there’s an opportunity for a bounce-back performance against the Colts.
The Houston defense is one of the best in the league, and if the Texans find themselves in a positive game script, Marks could be in line for a busy afternoon. Last week, Kareem Hunt saw 30(!) carries for over 100 yards – while I don’t think Marks will carry the ball nearly as much, it gives a blueprint to slowing down the explosive Colts offense. Of course, if Houston starts to find themselves on their back foot, Marks comes alive in the passing game.
Woody Marks vs the Bills on TNF:
– 16 Carries
– 74 Yards
– 5 Missed Tackles Forced
– 45 yards after the missed tackles
– 84 yards after contact
– 43.8% rushing success rateAll of which are career highs outside of carries. pic.twitter.com/Mr7YLNUWqw
— Jacob (@TexansJacob) November 24, 2025
Greg Dortch, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Consensus Rank: WR51
Lou’s Rank: WR36 (+15)
I just hope that LaQuan Jones is smiling. Maybe he’s not sure why, but any time Greg Dortch does something good on a football field, my first thought goes to LaQuan and strawberries. Why? Because for two years now, LaQuan has preached the gospel according to Dortch.
Sadly, it hadn’t happened yet because of who was directing the offense. But now? Hoo baby, now we’re cooking! We’ve got a real, professional NFL quarterback in one Mr. Jacoby Brissett. I know, I never thought I’d type that sentence either! But that’s exactly who he is and what he does as he distributes the ball to his playmakers. Dortch may not be the most physically imposing guy, but he’s about half a step faster than anyone trying to tackle him on any given play. As a borderline WR3/Flex play, that’s exactly the type of situation I want to rely on instead of one of the boom/bust options out there.
NOBODY WAS CATCHING GREG DORTCH
JAXvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/RCP45UvU7K
— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2025
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Consensus Rank: TE14
Lou’s Rank: TE4 (+10)
Let me tell you a little story about a school called Penn State. Now, this school churns out athletes like you wouldn’t believe. In fact, just this year, it turned out to be a heck of an NFL prospect named Tyler Warren, the new TE wunderkind for the Colts. Why do I bring up Tyler Warren when the heading says I should be talking about Brenton Strange? I’m so glad you asked. Or rather, so glad I asked. Whatever. I bring it up because Brenton Strange was one of the TEs at Penn State who relegated Tyler Warren to the bench while Strange was in school.
Fast forward to Week 12, Strange’s first week back from IR. He didn’t miss a beat. He was third on the team in targets with five, and caught all five for a gaudy 93 yards. This is not your run-of-the-mill TE who will just catch the ball and fall down, folks. Strange is a legitimate YAC (yards after catch) monster. I understand if Trevor Lawrence fills you with trepidation and distress like you’ve eaten too much pie. I feel the same way about him. But when you have a TE with the ability to turn a short catch into a long gain, you really mitigate a lot of that risk.
Players We Are Lower On:
Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Consensus Rank: RB36
Nate’s Rank: RB41 (-5)
It looks like “Sean Tucker season” in Tampa Bay will officially come to an end this weekend, friends.
After an electric Week 11 performance against Buffalo that saw Tucker log 33 half-PPR fantasy points on his way to an overall RB1 finish. His 19 carries were the most of his career, as were the two rushing TDs Tucker scored. Last week, Tucker came back down to Earth, notching 42 yards and 5.1 fantasy points on 12 carries. Now the Buccaneers are eyeing the return of second-year RB Bucky Irving from IR, which will further push Tucker down the priority list in the Tampa Bay offense. My rank of RB41 has some “in case Teddy Bridgewater starts” baked in, but if it’s Baker Mayfield behind center this weekend, I’ll be surprised to see him as a top 50 RB in Week 13.
Tyrod Taylor, QB, New York Jets
Consensus Rank: QB22
Nate’s Rank: QB26 (-4)
Just because a player is starting at QB in any given week doesn’t mean you have to start them as well. Especially a QB in an offense with no direction, missing its elite WR1. Yes, I’m looking at you, anyone who ranked Tyrod Taylor as a QB2 this week.
I will concede that Taylor is a noticeable improvement over Justin Fields. In both games he’s started this season, the veteran journeyman has logged 13 or more fantasy points. His best performance came against the Buccaneers in Week 3, who are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to the position. Last week, Taylor logged 13.8 fantasy points against Baltimore, who is giving up the 15th most fantasy points to the position.
If it’s Taylor the rest of the way in New York, there will be times where he’s worthy of a look in 2QB and Superflex formats, namely Week 14 against Miami and Week 16 against New Orleans. This week, against a Falcons defense that has been good against QBs, is not the week. I guarantee you have better options.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
Consensus Rank: RB15
Bryan’s Rank: RB21 (-6)
Just when we all thought the Panthers’ offense was clicking, Bryce Young and company disappeared when the lights got bright. The Panthers battle the Rams this weekend, and I couldn’t be more worried about Dowdle’s effectiveness against a team that rolled over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Most teams probably aren’t in a position to bench Dowdle, but just know that a 100-yard outing isn’t in the cards in Week 13.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Consensus Rank: WR18
Bryan’s Rank: WR24 (-6)
The Minnesota Vikings are trotting out third string, UDFA (and UNH legend) Max Brosmer against one of the best defenses in football. I don’t think Jefferson can salvage this one. Adjust expectations accordingly and, if possible, consider pivoting.
RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos
Consensus Rank: RB20
Lou’s Rank: RB36 (-16)
I will fully admit that many things are working in Harvey’s favor. They’re playing Washington, and they can’t defend the run to save their lives. Harvey is now getting the lion’s share of the RB work, now that incumbent J.K. Dobbins is on IR. These are undoubtedly marks in favor of Harvey outperforming my RB36 ranking.
So why am I so down on him? Well, well, well, my old nemesis: Sean Payton. We meet again. I’ve said many times, you can trust Sean Payton if you want to. I do not. As we saw in Week 11, Payton will bring other RBs into the mix even with Harvey there. Payton has a long history of running multiple RBs unless he has a dominant RB in the fold. Maybe Harvey gets to that point one day, but we’re sure not there yet.
Harvey is devastatingly fast, but lacks nuance and decision-making at this point in his career. That might be enough against Washington. But it also puts him in that boom-bust tier as a Flex consideration rather than a mid-RB2.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Consensus Rank: RB23
Lou’s Rank: RB32 (-9)
I’m a bit tired of people saying things like, “When will Zach Charbonnet stop vulturing Kenneth Walker?” At this point, given how they use Charbonnet around the red zone, it would be Walker vulturing Charbonnet more than the reverse. Walker may get the first snaps and the majority of the carries, but when it comes to scoring TDs? That’s Charbonnet’s job and his job alone among the RBs.
It’s so dramatic that Walker has only a single TD since Week 3, when he scored two. Compare that to Charbonnet, who has six over the same timeframe. It’s really difficult to be even an RB2 without scoring TDs. In fact, Walker has managed an RB2 or better finish only three times since his TD drought began in Week 4. Walker is fine as a Flex since he has a reasonable floor, but do yourself a favor and look for an RB2 elsewhere.
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