Welcome to the AFC South version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Houston Texans. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and finally, I’ll cover what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Houston Texans in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	0.43
4th Down Go For It!	14.29 –
Target GINI	0.5731
Rushing GINI	0.754
Plays/Game: Offense	62.8

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a + means it’s significantly, at least one standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a – means it’s significantly below average.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure, it makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passes the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.
“OK, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

Defensive head coach with a penchant for “punt on 4th down and play good defense.” Goes together like peanut butter and jelly.

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
CJ Stroud	QB18
Joe Mixon	RB13
Cam Akers	RB47
Nico Collins	WR22
Tank Dell	WR53
Stefon Diggs	WR65
Dalton Schultz	TE22
Ka’imi Fairbairn	K6

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Cam Akers, Tank Dell (injury), Stefon Diggs

Signed: Christian Kirk, Nick Chubb

As much as it feels the main parts of the Texans are unchanged, there were strong currents below the calm on the surface. The Texans also added college teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel at WR in the NFL draft. So, as much as it looks like things stayed the same, they changed a lot.

My momma taught me that if you can’t say somethin’ nice, don’t say anything at all. Unfortunately for the Texans, my job is to report on what I see, and what I see is a dumpster fire where an offensive line should be. Perhaps going to a gap-based running scheme will help the running game. But may the football gods have mercy on your soul if you’re looking for help in the passing game.

Houston finally parted ways with… beleaguered? Incompetent? Comatose?…offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. The Texans tapped Nick Caley from the Rams to lead their offense going forward, and we assume we’ll see a gap-heavy running game and passing game based on motion and timing.

Looking Ahead to the Houston Texans in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
C.J. Stroud	3
Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon	3
Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins	4
Dalton Schultz	2
Ka’imi Fairbairn	4

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
CJ Stroud	QB20
Nick Chubb	RB16
Joe Mixon	RB73
Nico Collins	WR11
Christian Kirk	WR42
Jayden Higgins	WR65
Dalton Schultz	TE27
Ka’imi Fairbairn	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Los Angeles Rams	L
2	Tampa Bay	L
3	@ Jacksonville	L
4	Tennessee	W
5	@ Baltimore	L
6	BYE	–
7	@ Seattle	W
8	San Francisco	W
9	Denver	L
10	Jacksonville	W
11	@ Tennessee	W
12	Buffalo	W
13	@ Indianapolis	W
14	@ Kansas City	L
15	Arizona	W
16	Las Vegas	L
17	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 8-8

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Colts

“Lou, you didn’t rank Ka’imi Farbairn!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. He’s probably one of the better kickers to take if you’re into that sort of thing, since Houston hates going for it on 4th down, I guess?

I don’t think I can overstate just how worried I am about Houston’s offensive line and what it will mean for the offense this year.

Maybe addition by subtraction is the way forward for them, and trading away stud LT Laremy Tunsil doesn’t submarine the entire season. Maybe. I’m not a fan of any of the free agency O-linemen they brought in, although they might have something with 2nd-round rookie Aireontaie Ersery. However, in either case, they were a lot more than a rookie away from getting better. I am concerned, y’all.

“Lou, what on Earth is going on with the Houston RBs that you’d rank them this way?!”

Long story short, it feels like Houston’s been short-selling Mixon’s injury and subsequent recovery this offseason. Houston signed Chubb, who’s now two years removed from a knee injury, and drafted Woody Marks, who is excellent as a receiving RB to add to their RB room. A room that still has Dare Ogunbowale and Damien Pierce. If this feels like they’re trying to replace Mixon in the aggregate, I don’t disagree. 

Without boring you to death with advanced statistics, blocking success (or lack thereof) rates, running game styles, and whatnot, I’ll suffice it to say that Nick Chubb showed more last year than it looked like on the surface. Not that the Houston offensive line is any better than he ran behind last year – see above – but the running scheme will be a good fit for him. As a summary, I believe Mixon will see limited action this year, if at all, and Chubb will be the primary ball carrier, including goalline work. 

If it seems like I’m down on Nico Collins, please bear in mind I have him ranked higher than he finished last year. I know we can never predict injuries and what have you, I do know that. And Nico has an unfortunate habit of suffering an injury every year that causes him to miss a few games. So where I’m ranking everyone else based on 16 (the full fantasy season) games, I’m basing his on 14. I have every faith that Nico Collins will be excellent in terms of fantasy points/game.

If There IS a League Winner In Houston, it’s…

Nick Chubb (RB)

It’s not often you can get a starting RB on a “league winner” list, but here I am. Right now, according to FantasyPros’ ADP in HPPR leagues, Chubb is going in the early 12th round. For my RB17, that’s an absurd value. On a team that wants to play good defense and run the ball hard, Chubb should be all over your radar. Sometimes it’s just that simple.

Deep League Draft Target

The aforementioned Woody Marks is probably a pass-catching RB only; however, his collegiate work in the passing game suggests that he could become a difference maker. What’s more, Houston actually traded up in the 4th round to select the electrifying Marks. That Houston chose to move up in a tremendously deep and talented RB draft should indicate how highly they value Marks.

Right now, Marks is 244th in ADP according to FantasyPros, which means he’s routinely available in the 21st round in 12-team leagues. 

Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.