Welcome to the AFC West version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Los Angeles Chargers. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Los Angeles Chargers in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-1.39
4th Down Go For It!	12.69 –
Target GINI	0.5563
Rushing GINI	0.6382 –
Plays/Game: Offense	59.5 –

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least one standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation 

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure, it makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passes the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Justin Herbert	QB13
J.K. Dobbins	RB23
Gus Edwards	RB57
Ladd McConkey	WR13
Quentin Johnston	WR37
Josh Palmer	WR77
Will Dissly	TE26
Cameron Dicker	K3

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Josh Palmer, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards

Added: Omarion Hampton, Najee Harris, Tre Harris, KeAndre Lambert-Smith

From a fantasy perspective, I love the Chargers’ draft. A first-round RB, and two WRs who fit the need for an X WR? Awesome stuff. 

In the least shocking analysis ever, the Chargers are all set at OT on their offensive line with the stellar pair of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. The middle of their line was an issue in ’24, and they added the mammoth Mekhi Becton to man one of the OG spots. This can only improve the running game and can’t hurt the protection from Herbert.  

The Chargers’ front office remains unchanged in all the important ways from ’24 to ’25. We can expect subtle differences at most in terms of style and scheme. 

Looking Ahead to the Los Angeles Chargers in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Justin Herbert	4
Omarion Hampton (R), Najee Harris	4
Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Tre Harris	3
Tyler Conklin	1
Cameron Dicker	5

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Justin Herbert	QB7
Omarion Hampton (R)	RB19
Najee Harris	RB48
Ladd McConkey	WR6
Quentin Johnston	WR75
Tre Harris	WR104
Tyler Conklin	TE32
Cameron Dicker	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	Kansas City	L
2	@ Las Vegas	L
3	Denver	L
4	@ New York Giants	W
5	Washington	W
6	@ Miami	W
7	Indianapolis	W
8	Minnesota	L
9	@ Tennessee	W
10	Pittsburgh	L
11	@ Jacksonville	L
12	BYE	–
13	Las Vegas	W
14	Philadelphia	W
15	@ Kansas City	W
16	@ Dallas	L
17	Houston	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 9-7

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Chargers

“Lou, you didn’t rank Cameron Dicker!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Look, his nickname is “Dicker The Kicker.” What more analysis could you possibly be looking for?!

No matter what you think about the Chargers’ offense, there are two figures who loom over the whole operation: Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Both have had almost as much success as you can have in the NFL at their respective positions. However, both are also known for running a conservative offense combined with great defense to achieve that success. That spells a fantasy wasteland in many analysts’ minds.

The advanced stats definitely seem to back up that thought process, too. That’s a lot of red in the ledger of the ’24 season. If you’re familiar with my work, you know I love the phrase, “Give me the nuance.” Let’s break down those stats. The Plays/Game: Offense and 4th Down Go For It! were significantly below the league average. Together, they speak to a coaching staff that knew they wanted to take the air out of the game and kick the ball on 4th down to let the defense handle things. The problem was, as shown in our Rushing GINI, they didn’t have the horses in the backfield to lean on the running game to do it.

Anyone with eyes could see the Chargers lacked pass-catchers they could trust in their offense. Fast forward to 2025. We have not one, but two rookie WRs whose games are built on threatening the defense down the field. The Chargers also brought in two RBs who aren’t known for their work in the passing game, but are both definitely capable in that area.

With a final look back at 2024 for the Chargers, we see a coaching staff that struggled to close out and win games despite carrying leads into the second half of games. The coaching staff finally figured out they needed to be able to throw and run the ball more effectively. We can see this from Herbert’s increased passing attempts from Week 6 on after their Week 5 bye.

All in all, look for an offense that focuses on efficiency in both the passing and running games. Increasing efficiency means extending drives, which means increased fantasy scoring for everyone. Except for Dicker The Kicker, potentially.

If There is a League Winner On the Chargers, it’s…

Tre Harris/KeAndre Lambert-Smith 

I know, I’m cheating a bit. But bear with me, I have a good reason. One of these guys will be the starting X WR for the Chargers. Los Angeles has been trying to force a square peg, Quentin Johnston, into a round hole, the X WR position, for two years now. Yes, Johnston performed in fantasy last year, but this was due mainly to Johnston’s eight receiving TDs on only 55 receptions. That’s Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Demarcus Robinson‘s type of unsustainable production.

One of these WRs is going to end up playing a lot of snaps, and Justin Herbert has the arm arrogance to believe he can get them the ball no matter where they are on the field. He also has the touch and arm talent to do it, too. It will take time throughout the season for either rookie to gain Herbert and the coaching staff’s trust, so don’t expect production right out of the gate. But there’s no reason one of them can’t see 70+ targets this year, with the majority of them coming in the second half of the season.

You know, the second half of the season. When are the fantasy playoffs played, and leagues are won? Yeah. League. Winner(s).

Deep League Draft Target

KeAndre is currently outside of the Top 300 of FantasyPros’ ADP himself, so he definitely qualifies. Since I already talked about him, I’m going to talk about Tyler Conklin instead, who’s clocking in at only 272nd in ADP.

Conklin isn’t exactly a household name, but the Chargers held him out of the 1st preseason game along with most of the offensive starters. Conklin has also shown enough receiving talent over the years to slide in with the Chargers’ overall plan of getting more capable pass-catchers in the door.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.