Welcome to the NFC North version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Minnesota Vikings. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Minnesota Vikings in 2024

---

Team Stats
PROE	3.59 +
4th Down Go For It!	14.53
Target GINI	0.5469
Rushing GINI	0.6995
Plays/Game: Offense	62.5

---

Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

---

Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Sam Darnold	QB8
Aaron Jones	RB16
Cam Akers	RB47
Justin Jefferson	WR2
Jordan Addison	WR20
Jalen Nailor	WR71
T.J. Hockenson	TE33
Will Reichard	K19

---

Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Sam Darnold, Cam Akers

Added: Jordan Mason, Tai Felton

It’s rare that a team can lose a QB who led them to the playoffs, and somehow I actually feel better about them going forward. But that’s where we are. Don’t underestimate the Mason signing for Minnesota, but more on that later.

Minnesota’s offensive line is decidedly average. Which is a resounding win for them, considering they entered ’24 with massive questions at essentially every position along the line. Going into ’25, there are still questions; however, now the questions are limited to the interior.

The front office is completely unchanged from ’24 to ’25, and we can expect the schemes to stay largely the same as well. 

Looking Ahead to the Minnesota Vikings in 2025

---

Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
J.J. McCarthy	3
Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones	4
Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor	5
T.J. Hockenson	5
Will Reichard	3

---

Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
J.J. McCarthy	QB24
Jordan Mason	RB21
Aaron Jones	RB34
Justin Jefferson	WR4
Jordan Addison	WR52
Jalen Nailor	WR53
T.J. Hockenson	TE6
Will Reichard	–

---

Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Chicago	L
2	Atlanta	W
3	Cincinnati	L
4	@ Pittsburgh	L
5	@ Cleveland	W
6	BYE	–
7	Philadelphia	W
8	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W
9	@ Detroit	L
10	Baltimore	W
11	Chicago	W
12	@ Green Bay	L
13	@ Seattle	L
14	Washington	W
15	@ Dallas	W
16	@ New York Giants	W
17	Detroit	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 10-5

---

OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Vikings

“Lou, you didn’t rank Will Reichard!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. He kicks in a dome, has a strong leg, and plays for a good offense. Sure, I’m in. 

The Vikings’ outlook as a team begins and ends with their new “rookie” QB, J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy tore up his knee in the 2024 training camp, missing his entire (actual) rookie year. Now he’s healthy and The Man. He’s also a complete unknown. Coming out of college, McCarthy was a draftnik darling, but didn’t have the stats to back it up. In other words, he’s got the talent, but not the resume. If ever there was a coach to maximize the skills of such a player, it’s Kevin O’Connell. As a head coach, O’Connell has made Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and even Sam Darnold look like real NFL QBs. “In KOC we trust” until he shows us differently. 

One way a coach takes pressure off a new QB is by using the running game, of course. To that end, the Jordan Mason signing looms large. It seems most analysts believe Mason will be the secondary RB to Aaron Jones, and I disagree. Mason is a bruising RB in every sense of the phrase, but is plenty nimble in his own right. He’s not here to spell Jones when Jones needs a rest. He’s here to take names and kick butt. In terms of projected usage, Mason projects as a 1st/2nd-down RB whose usage increases in the red zone, whereas Jones projects as a 3rd-down/2-minute drill RB. Their skills overlap so that it won’t be that neat and tidy. But it gives you a general idea. That means Mason will be first in line for the oh-so-valuable goal-line touches that make fantasy weeks.

When it comes to the pass-catchers, we know what to expect with Justin Jefferson, even with a pseudo-rookie at QB. He’ll be fine, maybe not WR2 overall level fine, but plenty fine. So let’s talk about Jordan Addison. The NFL just handed down a 3-game suspension to Addison that he will serve at the start of the season. Since this news broke on August 5th, Addison’s ADP has fallen by a full round to the final pick of the 8th round in 12-team leagues. Addison was remarkably productive in ’24 along with Sam Darnold, and thanks to O’Connell’s prowess as a coach, there’s good reason to think he can be again in ’25. When he plays, that is.

The big winner from all the moving parts on offense might just be T.J. Hockenson. Let’s check some boxes, shall we? The TE position is historically the one that young QBs lean on early in their career. Check. Hock has already been that guy for three other QBs in Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Sam Darnold. Check. Hock is fully healthy now that he’s almost two full years out from tearing his ACL. Check. He’s already McCarthy’s favorite target in training camp. Check. Justin Jefferson is currently out with a hamstring injury, and the NFL suspended Addison for the first three games. Check. Boy, that’s a whole lot of checks.

If There is a League Winner In Minnesota, It’s…

Jordan Addison, oddly enough. 

Addison presents you with a unique opportunity in that his suspension allows you to do a “WR3 by committee” and end up with WR2 numbers. No, I’m serious, I’m not just selling snake oil.

Consider what you get out of Addison when he’s on the field. Nine total weeks as a top-36 WR, and three as a top-4 WR, with a HPPR average of 12.89 points per game (PPG) when healthy, and finished as WR20 on the season. Thanks to his suspension, players are drafting Addison right around WR45, compared to WR30 before the NFL announced his suspension. For fun, let’s assume we can get that same 12.89 PPG from Addison after his suspension. That means we can expect 167.57 points across his 13 games.

With Addison’s ADP creeping lower and lower – some sites have him settling in the early 10th round – we can ostensibly take Addison as a WR4 or even WR5 if we want. Let’s assume he’s our WR4 for simplicity’s sake. Let’s pair him with Chris Olave, who’s currently going in the middle of the 7th round, depending on the site. Let’s say Olave doesn’t blow the doors off, but he gets you 10.0 HPPR PPG during Addison’s three-game absence. Now, you’re looking at a total of 197.57 points from your WR3 position, all for a cost of a 7th and 9th round picks. That level of production works out to more than what

This is what makes ranking Jordan Addison so difficult. If I just go by point total like I currently am, he should be low like he is. But, if I go based on potential for what he can do for your team if you play your cards correctly, I should rank him much higher. Either way, Jordan Addison: League winner.

Deep League Draft Target

Perhaps his ADP hasn’t caught up to the NFL’s announcement of Jordan Addison’s suspension, but Jalen Nailor is barely even an afterthought in leagues, and he shouldn’t be. Nailor will be an every-down starter while Addison serves his suspension, and even after he comes back, Nailor will be the third WR. He also showed solid growth in ’24 as a dangerous player in his own right, so it’s possible his role could grow beyond what we’re accustomed to.

With an ADP of 292 according to FantasyPros, Jalen Nailor makes for an ideal end-of-draft dart throw or waiver wire pickup.

---

Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.