Welcome to the AFC East version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the New England Patriots. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The New England Patriots in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-2.93
4th Down – Go For It!	19.2
Target GINI	0.5345
Rushing GINI	0.7731
Plays/Game – Offense	60.4

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least one standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“OK, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

There’s not really anything “good” to take out of New England’s 2024 advanced metrics. Probably the best thing is that it’s not 2024 anymore.

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Drake Maye	QB23
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB28
Antonio Gibson	RB44
Demario Douglas	WR52
Kayshon Boutte	WR66
Kendrick Bourne	WR102
Hunter Henry	TE12
Joey Slye	K20

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Kinda none

Added: Stefon Diggs

New England was hell-bent on supporting their hopeful franchise QB Drake Maye in the ’25 Draft. The Patriots tapped a new OT, a new RB, a new WR, and even a new K aggressively throughout the draft. 

New England’s offensive line went through a huge upheaval, as the Patriots replaced both OTs as well as the C. Learning to work as a unit in addition to developing rookie OT Will Campbell will take time, so don’t expect this to be even a league-average unit at the outset. But there’s hope now where there wasn’t in ’24.

The entire coaching room is new, but familiar. HC Mike Vrabel takes over, and OC Josh McDaniels returns. Again. So while everything is new, we have a good idea of what to expect.

Looking Ahead to New England in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Drake Maye	2
TreVeyon Henderson (R), Rhamondre Stevenson	3
Stefon Diggs, Demario Douglas, Kyle Williams (R)	2
Hunter Henry	3
Andres Borregales (R)	1

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Drake Maye	QB16
TreVeyon Henderson (R)	RB34
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB27
Stefon Diggs	WR52
Demario Douglas	WR73
Kyle Williams (R)	WR54
Hunter Henry	TE14
Andres Borregales (R)	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	Las Vegas	L
2	@ Miami	L
3	Pittsburgh	W
4	Carolina	L
5	@ Buffalo	L
6	@ New Orleans	W
7	@ Tennessee	W
8	Cleveland	W
9	Atlanta	L
10	@ Tampa Bay	W
11	New York Jets	W
12	@ Cincinnati	L
13	New York Giants	W
14	BYE	–
15	Buffalo	L
16	@ Baltimore	L
17	@ New York Jets	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 7-9

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Patriots

“Lou, you didn’t rank Andres Borregales!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Hopefully, the New England offense is more functional this year, so Andres can actually kick some FGs?

Did that end-of-season schedule jump out at you, too? Because it definitely should. Not that I expect you to load up on Patriots for a playoff push. However, unlike ’24, there should actually be some usable fantasy assets on the New England roster in ’25. Make sure to have good alternatives if you make it into the fantasy playoffs, though.

While rookie TreVeyon Henderson is understandably getting all the buzz, we need to remember who the HC and OC are for this team. Josh Daniels (almost) always splits up the work between RBs in a “thunder and lightning” type of approach. The lone exception is Josh Jacobs‘ bonkers load for the Raiders when there were zero other options. It will frustrate fantasy managers, but go in expecting there to be an uncomfortable timeshare between Stevenson and Henderson.

New England put effort into rebuilding their WR room, and it shows. Assuming he can be healthy, not a given at the age of 31 and coming off a torn ACL, Diggs is a savvy enough route runner to be a boon for a growing QB. Douglas remains a threat from the slot, even if he’s not a downfield threat. And rookie Kyle Williams can fill that downfield role despite the fact that he’s below average in size. If nothing else, Maye should have options beyond Hunter Henry in ’25.

If There is a League Winner In New England, it’s…

A trick question! 

We throw the term “league-winning” around a lot. Too much, as a matter of fact. It might seem obvious, but a league-winning player should be able to win you your league. If you harken back to where I talked about the fantasy playoffs, that’s what drives this stance that a league-winning player doesn’t exist on New England’s roster.

If, and I cannot stress that “if” enough, there is a player on New England who could fill that role, it’s Drake Maye. He’s going outside the top 12 QBs, so you don’t have to spend a premium pick to get him. But he has the arm – and more importantly, the legs – to light up the fantasy scoreboard if he puts it all together this year. Maybe Maye takes a 2020 Josh Allen-esque leap this year. Heck, Stefon Diggs was there for that, too!

Deep League Draft Target

With as many new faces as there are on New England’s offense, it feels strange to recommend a player whom they might be trying to replace. However, Kayshon Boutte developed a decent rapport with Maye in ’24, and despite his physical limitations, he was by far the most reliable and productive WR on the team.

With an ADP of 309 according to FantasyPros, Boutte makes for an interesting end-of-bench dart throw, if he remains on the New England roster, of course.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.