Welcome to the NFC South version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the New Orleans Saints. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The New Orleans Saints in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-5.10
4th Down Go For It!	20.61
Target GINI	0.4036 –
Rushing GINI	0.7356
Plays/Game: Offense	60.7

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Derek Carr	QB26
Alvin Kamara	RB10
Jamaal Williams	RB75
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR84
Rashid Shaheed	WR90
Chris Olave	WR93
Juwan Johnson	TE17
Blake Grupe	K14

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Derek Carr

Added: Tyler Shough, Brandin Cooks 

New Orleans tapped Tyler Shough in the 2nd round of the NFL draft to be their QB of the…now-ish, I guess? They spent the rest of their draft on “meat and potatoes” types of players in a desperate attempt to restock talent in their roster.

We look for continuity on the offensive line to indicate improvement. Unfortunately, New Orleans had a ton of turnover across their team, which fits the theme. Oh, and right now, three of their O-Linemen are out with multi-week injuries. 

Kellen Moore gets his first head coaching gig for New Orleans, and he will have the monumental task of returning the Saints to relevance. We know Moore’s system uses lots of motion and runs its passing offense through a single player. Think Keenan Allen with the Chargers and CeeDee Lamb for the Cowboys. Their biggest years were both as Moore as OC. 

Looking Ahead to the New Orleans Saints in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Tyler Shough (R)	1
Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller	4
Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks	3
Juwan Johnson	1
Blake Grupe	3

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Tyler Shough (R)	QB33
Alvin Kamara	RB12
Kendre Miller	RB70
Chris Olave	WR40
Rashid Shaheed	WR55
Brandin Cooks	WR80
Juwan Johnson	TE32
Blake Grupe	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	Arizona	L
2	San Francisco	L
3	@ Seattle	L
4	@ Buffalo	L
5	New York Giants	L
6	New England Patriots	L
7	@ Chicago	L
8	Tampa Bay	L
9	@ Los Angeles Rams	L
10	@ Carolina	L
11	BYE	–
12	Atlanta	L
13	@ Miami	L
14	@ Tampa Bay	L
15	Carolina	W
16	New York Jets	W
17	@ Tennessee	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 2-14

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Saints

“Lou, you didn’t rank Blake Grupe!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. You cannot make me care about the kicker for one of the worst offenses in the NFL. I won’t do it.

If you’re a fan of the team, I’m very sorry. The Saints are somewhere between “embrace the suck” and “abandon all hope, ye who enter.” It’s gonna be a rough year, there’s no two ways about it. And it all starts with the QB position.

I do have Tyler Shough ranked the highest of the Saints’ QB room. The problem is – I don’t think he’s the only QB who starts for them over the year. If it feels to you like New Orleans is a black hole this year, I don’t blame you. There’s a whole lot of suck coming out of that QB room. Regardless of who gets the start between Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener in any given week, it will be rough. The play may look different, but the results will be painfully similar. 

I’d take the “if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all” track with the Saints, but it’s my job to say something. It’s gonna be a rough year for New Orleans, as I said. And unfortunately, when QB play is as rough as I’m anticipating, it holds down every aspect of a team thanks to reduced opportunities for everyone. If anyone can rise above that morass of sadness, however, it’s Chris Olave. After all, he’s used to playing with terrible QBs like Derek Carr. Not only that, he should also be the one to benefit from new head coach Kellen Moore’s motion-based offense that funnels targets through one individual.

The lone bright spot for the Saints’ offense this year, if it can indeed be called a “bright spot,” is Alvin Kamara. He doesn’t have all the superpowers of his youth, and the team around him has eroded, but he’s still the focal point of this offense on the ground. In addition, no matter who’s playing QB, Kamara will remain a primary target in the passing game. It might not be pretty, but it should be effective enough for our purposes. Let’s just hope that “bright spot” isn’t the light of an oncoming train.

If There is a League Winner On New Orleans, It’s…

A cry for help.

Please don’t do this to yourself. Touch some grass. Go to therapy. Pet an animal. Learn an instrument. Anything. But please, don’t look for league winners on the Saints.

Deep League Draft Target

To be very clear: I do not believe it’s worth dumpster diving for Saints players. Your roster spots are valuable, and I’d rather encourage you to spend them on guys you might actually start in certain situations. With that said, drafters are pricing Juwan Johnson ridiculously low. If you waited way too long for your TE, he makes for a reasonable dart throw while you sort out your life and figure out where exactly you went wrong. In fantasy football, that is. I’m no therapist.

With an ADP of 270 according to FantasyPros, you can acquire Juwan Johnson for the low, low price of a mid-23rd round pick in 12-team leagues. Yay?

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.