Now that we’re in Week 3, we have a couple of data points under our belt, which give us some insight into what these teams are doing this season. We’re no longer guessing with utilization and using what we have at our disposal to make informed decisions.

In this ongoing series, Kevin will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts he has about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. This week, it ended up being over 3,000 words. Whoops.

Let’s get into each game, where I’ll also put the latest over/under total for the games as well.

NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football Angles and Leverage

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*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs

Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns (41.5 Over/Under)

Green Bay Packers

• No Jayden Reed, so Dontayvion Wicks is in play for the wide receivers and well over Romeo Doubs in terms of fantasy viability.
• With Tucker Kraft questionable with a knee injury that popped up on Thursday, you’re not starting Luke Musgrave as anything but a DFS punt play if Kraft is inactive or limited.
• The Packers are entirely too uncondensed to feel confident in most of their options. This isn’t a do-or-die spot by any means, but this is the best runway Matthew Golden has had this season with multiple pass-catchers out. I feel pretty good about starting him in a spot where the Packers may look to get him designed touches to get him involved and into a rhythm. I’m targeting him heavily in DFS.

Cleveland Browns

• You have to worry about some game-script issues with the running game for Cleveland and Quinshon Judkins here against the Packers, but 6.0 yards per carry (YPC) and a ramp-up and increased involvement from him seem inevitable. Jacoby Ford is nearly zero, Dylan Sampson keeps working, but isn’t fantasy relevant.
• Banged up offensive line (Jack Conklin and Joel Bitonio both questionable) plus no snap restriction for Micah Parsons means that he may just tear through this line.
• A good spot for pass volume in the passing game with a likely negative game script, so firing up Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. seems like a good bet for targets to direct that volume to. Cedric Tillman in deeper leagues and/or DFS feels fine too.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (43.5)

Indianapolis Colts

• Daniel Jones has reached a point—especially with quarterback injuries—that we need to start him in 12-team managed leagues. Two straight top-seven finishes and three rushing touchdowns. Lock him in for a pretty good matchup here.
• The only way the Jones/passing game stuff goes awry is a Jonathan Taylor blow-up spot, which could absolutely happen here. Taylor has been 2024 Saquon Barkley so far, and the Titans are awful against the run.
• You’re still starting Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Warren (questionable but likely to pay), with deep leaguers still trotting out Josh Downs, hoping for some efficiency on limited routes in the slot.

Tennessee Titans

• We want a game for Cameron Ward to put it all together before we’re putting more Titans into lineups than Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard. Trust me, as the guy willing to toss in Elic Ayomanor, it’s probably a good idea to wait. I have been picking up Chimere Dike in some spots as his role has grown at the expense of Tyler Lockett. Chig Okonkwo is a low-ceiling, medium-floor play—still not all that enticing.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings (42.5)

Cincinnati Bengals

• Jake Browning starts here, and even if we have to downgrade the weapons here, you’re still starting Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown.
• It’s likely the Bengals move a little closer to the run and lean on Chase Brown, with a league-high 92.5% team rushing attempts through Week 2.

Minnesota Vikings

• Starting in place of J.J. McCarthy is Carson Wentz. WOOF.
• Yes, you’re starting Justin Jefferson. Don’t play it cute. You’re probably still starting T.J. Hockenson, though it doesn’t feel super great.
• No Aaron Jones, as he was placed on injured reserve (IR) with a hamstring injury, so Jordan Mason should pop in volume here as a high-end RB2. If there was a time when Mason could earn some running back targets, it’s here because behind him is Zavier Scott, whom I definitely had to double-check and make sure was a real human being. The Vikings also signed Cam Akers, but it’s unlikely Akers gets much run if he’s immediately elevated from the practice squad.
• I won’t lie, this matchup stinks because we have two backup quarterbacks in there instead of Joe Burrow and McCarthy slinging. This game had to be earmarked for a 48 O/U with everybody healthy.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots (44.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Good matchup against the Patriots this week for the passing game, but if you’re in a bad enough position to consider Aaron Rodgers… he’s going to be an excellent DFS punt QB this week, I’ll say that.
• The receivers outside of D.K. Metcalf are non-starters, and you can make a case if your roster is strong enough to bench Metcalf, too. I’m just not sure we’ll get the volume and efficiency needed for Metcalf to succeed in this specific offense.
• That’s a no for me (dawg) on Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith, who share one tight end role.
• With Kenneth Gainwell’s touches falling in Week 2 from Week 1, and Kaleb Johnson burrowing deep inside the Mike Tomlin doghouse, I’m okay with Jaylen Warren this week despite a tougher matchup. Even with a 44.5 game total, this seems like a hard under, and a rock fight could ensue between two offenses that have the capability to sputter at a moment’s notice.

New England Patriots

• Drake Maye deserves universal start status, given the numerous quarterback injuries and his impressive QB3 performance last week, which included two touchdown passes and a rushing score.
• With too much going on in the passing game, I’m even on the fence about Stefon Diggs. That’s what happens with an uncondensed passing game; Maye puts it all together, but this is your “it takes a village” receiving room.
• Start both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, hoping Henderson breaks a run so Josh McDaniels can’t put the genie back in the bottle. That 55-yard reception for Stevenson was something practiced the previous week for Henderson, so they’re drawing stuff up. It’s going to eventually hit.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles (44.5)

Los Angeles Rams

• Easy plays here between Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams. Holding back on Matthew Stafford this week.
• With Blake Corum playing the closer and getting the rushing touchdown late against the Titans, it’ll be interesting to see what his workload will be like with Williams.

Philadelphia Eagles

• You’re playing the hits (Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith)
• The passing game is concerning, but the Rams are a team that can push the Eagles to need to keep pace, so this could be a bounce-back spot here for Brown and Smith. If Dallas Goedert plays, add him to the pile of starters.

New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (43.5)

New York Jets

• No Justin Fields this week, but you’re still starting Garrett Wilson and hoping that Taylor only has eyes for him. The Buccaneers aren’t a great matchup for Breece Hall, but it’s a talent-based bet here where if the Bucs play down the Jets, Hall will get every opportunity for more volume and could keep it closer than anticipated.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Play the hits here with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Bucky Irving and Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka (questionable to play in Week 3) is sun-running touchdowns right now, and you’d expect that to benefit Evans at some point soon.
• This could be a game for the ancillary Buccaneers targets if Sauce Gardner follows Evans around, so I’ve got tight end Cade Otton slightly above consensus but still more of a DFS play than a managed-league play.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders (43.5)

Las Vegas Raiders

• Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers; lock them in. After last Monday’s meltdown, you probably can’t trust Geno Smith in redraft, but you may not have a choice with so many quarterback injuries.
• Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has been discussing “load management” this week in relation to Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, aiming to manage their individual workloads. Coaches have been fired for not using their players, especially those drafted in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. It’s one thing if you’re 8-2 and you’re tossing that term around to keep them fresh for the postseason. Brother, the Raiders are 1-1 and have scored the second-fewest points in the league. Spare me.

Washington Commanders

• Marcus Mariota performance starts downgrading the weapons, but only slightly.
  • In his three quarters in Week 7, when Jayden Daniels was knocked out, his target distribution was (RB: 2, TE: 8, WR: 17)
  • In his second half in Week 18, his target distribution was (RB: 3, TE:4, WR:10)
    • Total (2 Games): RB: 11%, TE: 27% (3 TD), WR: 61% (1 TD)
• Terry McLaurin has been quiet through two games, but it’s certainly possible that his contract squabble in training camp affected his preparation leading into the season. This could easily be a big bounce-back game for McLaurin in Week 3 against the Raiders and their bad secondary.
• It’s a “Bill” week, folks. Austin Ekeler is out for the season, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt assumes top billing in Washington. The Commanders are likely to call up Chris Rodriguez from the practice squad, with Jeremy McNichols taking on some of Ekeler’s receiving work. However, the touch and snap leader is expected to be Croskey-Merritt in Week 3. I do have the routes going to McNichols, though, because he’s been solid as a pass-catcher and deserves to be out there a bit. Rodriquez is a bit limited in that department and is the likely Croskey-Merritt contingency.
• No Noah Brown and John Bates doesn’t seem like much on the surface, but trotting out Mariota on top of that is tough. A thin receiving corps (more Jaylin Lane and Ben Sinnott) may not help matters.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers (43.5)

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson and Drake London are locks for all fantasy lineups.
• The Falcons lead the league in 12 personnel utilization through two games, featuring two tight ends and utilizing Pitts more as the third receiver compared to last season, when they led the league in 11 personnel and relied on special teamer Ray-Ray McCloud III for 86% of the routes. It’s a much better situation, and Pitts should be a low-end fantasy starter at tight end going forward with this role.

Carolina Panthers

• Tetairoa McMillan should be a near-universal start against a middle-of-the-road secondary. There could be some pass volume here if the Falcons get out in front, as they’ll likely just play bully ball and attempt to hammer the run like they did against the Vikings on Sunday Night Football (SNF) in Week 2. A.J. Terrell is out as well, so that only helps matters.
• Panthers are a fun DFS stack this week, with Bryce Young, McMillan, and Hunter Renfrow. Just putting in Renfrow is a bit gross, but I completely bypassed Xavier Legette because he’s just been a disaster. He’s questionable anyway, but that’s always been the case.
• It’s not a great matchup for Chuba Hubbard, and the game script may not agree with his bull case this week either. Still have to trot him out there, but he hasn’t been anywhere close to the efficiency from last season.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (44)

Houston Texans

• It would take a court order and maybe not even that to get Nico Collins out of my lineup this week.
• You’re hoping Nick Chubb gets into the end zone. While he’s been a nice story, getting Woody Marks some more work should be the modus operandi for the Texans.
• The Texans are doing too much “getting Xavier Hutchinson and Justin Watson on the field” for my liking, and we want to see what Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel can do. They’re stuck in the mud right now with no end in sight.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Brian Thomas Jr. is a must-start option, but he’s been hampered by a wrist injury that’s kept him limited in practice.
• I’m still worried about the Trevor Lawrence play, because he hasn’t been great through two games.
• Travis Hunter has earned quite a few targets, but he’s also played 62% of snaps on defense, too. The Jaguars are trying to figure out the limits here for Hunter, but the offense is too good not to just take off eventually.
• A quality opponent here outside of the pass rush, but Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten should have holes to run through. Tuten is viable as a flex play this week despite some workload uncertainty.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (46)

Denver Broncos

• I’ll put my eggs in the Courtland Sutton basket this week, because I’ve seen it too many times with Sean Payton offenses that play one player with a starter’s share of snaps and then revert to rotational hell the next week. That one’s for you, Troy Franklin.
• Start your J.K. Dobbins, and depending on your running backs, I would temper expectations on RJ Harvey for the next couple of weeks, with Payton clearly favoring Dobbins right now.

Los Angeles Chargers

• The Chargers have the highest distribution of targets to the wide receiver position in the NFL. Given the possibility that Patrick Surtain will shadow Quentin Johnston this week, I’m bumping up Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen considerably.
• The entire thesis for the Chargers in 2025 was flipped on its head as the Chargers have the league’s highest two-week PROE. That hasn’t helped Omarion Hampton in particular, but I’m still open to starting him if the role is strong. Najee Harris could eat in a little bit, but I’m not starting Harris, and neither should you.

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks (41.5)

New Orleans Saints

• The Saints are plucky, and we’re locking in Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson here.
• Chris Olave’s utilization has been very nice, and he’s a volume play in a tough matchup this week. Head coach Kellen Moore loves to quicken the pace of the offense, so maybe we can get some increased play volume and trickle it down to the passing game in a possible negative script that would also benefit Rashid Shaheed in a low-end flex/DFS kind of way.

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is inevitable. He’s a smash DFS play at his salary, and until providers bump his salary up, I’ll be jamming him in.
• With Zach Charbonnet not practicing, I’m bumping up Kenneth Walker III in the hopes that a consolidated backfield would get him into the low-end RB1 discussion against the Saints at home. Mike Macdonald has called them “both starters,” so expect more volatility. Still starting Charbonnet (as more of a Flex), but just know that week-to-week volatility is always on the menu for the Seattle backs, barring injury.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears (50.5)

Dallas Cowboys

• A 50.5 point total and Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are involved? This could get either very fun or very disappointing—nothing in between here. Jake Ferguson is a solid start here, too, to build on his massive volume (9-78, 12 targets) from Week 2.
• You’re starting Javonte Williams, but consider shopping him in redraft leagues to see what you can get. Williams is the biggest sell-high player in fantasy football.
• No need to change any of the guys outside the top three pass-catchers in Dallas with an inflated game total for redraft.

Chicago Bears

• No true must-start players for Chicago, but we’re definitely warming up to some, like Rome Odunze. His price tag on DK ($5300) is insane, and I will play him the entire climb into the $ 6,000’s. The bloom is coming off the rose for D.J. Moore, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was traded, honestly. It just doesn’t feel like a good fit with Ben Johnson.
• We’re still in the murky holding pattern with Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, but Johnson did say he wanted to get more packages for both rookies.
• D’Andre Swift is a totally cromulent back for Week 3 with a good matchup against the Cowboys and volume on his side, as long as he plays. No real sign that he won’t, but Kyle Monangai is your contingent play and should be on more redraft rosters.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (45.5)

Arizona Cardinals

• Trey McBride is a must-start each week.
• Marvin Harrison Jr. feels very touchdown-or-bust in what is a chronically underachieving Cardinals passing game that doesn’t matter after McBride and Harrison.
• Trey Benson is sneaking up on James Conner. With Conner having an out in his contract after this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Benson, who has absorbed Emari Demercado’s third-down/long-down and distance role from 2024, is getting an audition to see if he can handle the full-time role. It’s going to be a multi-week process, but Benson is THE best contingent play right now and should be universally added in all leagues.

San Francisco 49ers

• He’s not nearly as efficient as he used to be, but 2025 Christian McCaffrey still puts up the quietest 20+ fantasy point days, and you have to start him regardless.
• I frankly don’t even mind Mac Jones in this spot, given he has good weapons around him and the keys to the Shanahan kingdom.
• Jauan Jennings > Ricky Pearsall, but Pearsall is a decent start here for some target consolidation. Jennings immediately producing as the Niners’ WR1 last week is incredibly bullish for maintaining last season’s breakout thesis.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants (45)

Kansas City Chiefs

• It’s difficult to trust anybody, honestly. Even Patrick Mahomes.
• Travis Kelce is old, and when he’s not injuring his own players, he’s catching and falling reminiscent of Jason Witten’s final seasons. He doesn’t feel great to click, but you have to include him in your lineups if you have him.
• The Chiefs COULD get Xavier Worthy back for Sunday night (listed as questionable for Week 3), and I would be very much interested. The 16-target game for Hollywood Brown likely was ticketed to Worthy if he hadn’t gotten hurt, so the designed touches for Worthy could be back on the menu.

New York Giants

• It honestly wouldn’t shock me if the Giants won at home. They’ll do that with a generational Malik Nabers game, enough from Wan’Dale Robinson and Cam Skattebo taking 60%+ of the team rush attempts.
• I do worry about Russell Wilson against this Chiefs’ defense, though, and that could be the biggest factor of all.

Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens (53.5)

Detroit Lions

• Play the hits with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Jared Goff.
• The offense won’t rely heavily on the secondary guys, such as Isaac TeSlaa and Kalif Raymond. TeSlaa is a fun showdown pick, though.
• Not much else to go on; this game could be amazing or a dud. Playing the dud path on Showdown is your path to winning without you and a bunch of your friends splitting first place.

Baltimore Ravens

• You’re starting your normal guys here, so Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers.
• The Ravens desperately need some target-earning receivers who aren’t named Flowers, but who don’t have them currently on the roster. It’s possible that it could be Isaiah Likely when he returns, but I’m pinning my hopes on Flowers just dominating everything, even if touchdowns don’t go his way.

 

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