Welcome to the AFC North version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Pittsburgh Steelers. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-5.47
4th Down Go For It!	14.39 –
Target GINI	0.515
Rushing GINI	0.6588
Plays/Game: Offense	62.6

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

Unexciting offense, punt on 4th down, and play good defense. Sounds like the Steelers, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Russell Wilson	QB24
Najee Harris	RB20
Jaylen Warren	RB41
George Pickens	WR42
Calvin Austin	WR69
Van Jefferson	WR101
Pat Freiermuth	TE10
Chris Boswell	K1

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, George Pickens, Najee Harris

Added: Aaron Rodgers, D.K. Metcalf, Jonnu Smith 

“How can a team change up their entire offense wholesale, yet expect to remain at the bottom of the league offensively?” I just wrote this for the Cleveland Browns, yet it somehow all applies to the Steelers as well. That’s…not great. 

The good news is that Pittsburgh has three starters on the offensive line who were rookies last year, and they’re all back this year. The bad news is that all three rookies were either terrible or injured in 2024. As much as the offensive skill positions have changed over the offseason, the offensive line has stayed mostly the same. Without an improvement in performance, it’s difficult to expect better from the offense.

As they are wont to do, the Steelers’ front office and coaching staff are completely unchanged. Run the ball, play good defense, hunt splash plays, punt/kick field goals on 4th down. Same as it ever was.

Looking Ahead to the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Aaron Rodgers	2
Kaleb Johnson (R), Jaylen Warren	3
DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson	1
Pat Freiermuth	3
Chris Boswell	5

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Aaron Rodgers	QB29
Kaleb Johnson (R)	RB38
Jaylen Warren	RB28
DK Metcalf	WR42
Calvin Austin	WR89
Roman Wilson	WR91
Pat Freiermuth	TE17
Chris Boswell	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ New York Jets	L
2	Seattle	W
3	@ New England	L
4	Minnesota	W
5	BYE	–
6	Cleveland	W
7	@ Cincinnati	L
8	Green Bay	W
9	Indianapolis	W
10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W
11	Cincinnati	W
12	@ Chicago	W
13	Buffalo	L
14	@ Baltimore	L
15	Miami	L
16	@ Detroit	L
17	@ Cleveland	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 8-8

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Steelers

“Lou, you didn’t rank Chris Boswell!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Honestly, if I were going to rank kickers, Boswell would be at the top. He’s that good and consistent, and the Steelers play to those strengths.

I have to give the Steelers credit for knowing who they are and leaning into their strengths. The Steelers may not operate like a franchise in the 2020s, but they sure do know who they are. To wit, they drafted Kaleb Johnson in the 2nd round of the 2025 NFL Draft. When they did, I said out loud, “That is the most Pittsburgh Steelers-coded RB I can imagine.” It really is a perfect fit for who they are, and I expect him to do well there…eventually.

Overall, I don’t foresee much success in terms of the overall Steelers offense. A bad offensive line means their geriatric QB will need to get rid of the ball quickly when passing, and that’s not Smith’s strong point. If they can’t score, they will play from behind a lot, and that will limit Kaleb Johnson’s production while boosting Jaylen Warren’s. To be very clear, I like both RBs, but I expect Warren to outproduce Kaleb this year. Their passing offense overall looks like a bunch of square pegs for round holes that could be an absolute trainwreck.

That I feel best about the kicker for Pittsburgh says a lot about the overall state of the team.

If There is a League Winner in Pittsburgh, it’s…

The argument for “both”: The last time Jonnu was in an Arthur Smith offense, he had four weeks of top-10 TE production and another four that fell just outside of TE1 range. Meanwhile, Muth hasn’t finished worse than TE14 in non-injury-plagued seasons. In Arthur Smith’s last season with Atlanta, Jonnu Smith finished as TE16, while Kyle Pitts finished as TE14. 

The argument for “neither”: Do we care about TEs we don’t expect to finish in the top 12? If we don’t, should we? The thing we hunt for with TEs is the upside to be TE1 on a weekly basis. With Arthur Smith running the show, the answer for both TEs in any given week is yes, but also more accurately, no. What I mean by that is both have TE1 upside in any given week, but it will be all but impossible to tell which has it in a given week, if at all.

Deep League Draft Target

Did you know that Kenneth Gainwell left Philadelphia? I wouldn’t blame you if you said “No.” He packed his bags and headed…all the way across the state to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Why does this matter? Gainwell was never able to catch on as more than a change-of-pace type RB, even when pressed into duty as a starter thanks to an injury to the starter. That’s exactly how Arthur Smith’s infuriating offense runs with a thumper and more of a slashing or receiving RB. The incumbent for the latter role, Jaylen Warren, gets nicked up pretty consistently. Gainwell is perfectly set up to replace him when the Steelers call upon him.

With an ADP outside the top 300 players according to FantasyPros, Gainwell is another free square just waiting for a chance.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.