Welcome to the NFC South version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-0.46
4th Down Go For It!	14.29 –
Target GINI	0.4406 –
Rushing GINI	0.7333
Plays/Game: Offense	63.2

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Baker Mayfield	QB3
Bucky Irving	RB14
Rachaad White	RB24
Mike Evans	WR9
Jalen McMillan	WR49
Chris Godwin	WR54
Cade Otton	TE13
Chase McLaughlin	K7

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Nobody important

Added: Emeka Egbuka

Egbuka is really the only fantasy-relevant addition from the draft, as Tampa Bay attempted to shore up their CB and Edge positions with the rest of their selections.

Tampa Bay returns four of five starters to their superb offensive line from 2024, so more good should come of it. It’s important to note that it looks like LT Tristan Wirfs will miss at least the first four games of the year. So the first month-plus of the season could be uncomfortable for the offense, to say the least.  

For the second year in a row, Tampa Bay loses its offensive coordinator to a head coaching gig. Josh Grizzard takes over for the departed Liam Coen, and at this point, it’s valid to wonder if it’s Baker Mayfield making the men rather than the reverse, even if it’s probably a bit of both. 

Looking Ahead to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Baker Mayfield	4
Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker	4
Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka (R), Chris Godwin	5
Cade Otton	1
Chase McLaughlin	5

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Baker Mayfield	QB10
Bucky Irving	RB12
Sean Tucker	RB55
Mike Evans	WR16
Emeka Egbuka (R)	WR47
Chris Godwin	WR52
Cade Otton	TE27
Chase McLaughlin	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Atlanta	L
2	@ Houston	W
3	New York Jets	W
4	Philadelphia	L
5	@ Seattle	W
6	San Francisco	L
7	@ Detroit	W
8	@ New Orleans	W
9	BYE	–
10	New England	L
11	@ Buffalo	L
12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L
13	Arizona	W
14	New Orleans	W
15	Atlanta	W
16	@ Carolina	W
17	@ Miami	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 8-8

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Buccaneers

“Lou, you didn’t rank Chase McLaughlin!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Tampa Bay has a very good offense, and McLaughlin has a strong and accurate leg. Seems good enough?

Good for Baker Mayfield. He desperately needed to grow up when he was the starting QB for the Browns, and he definitely has. We need to keep in mind that his fantasy performance probably isn’t sustainable, though. Even still, Mayfield can take a step back in stats and still have room for fantasy goodness all up and down the Tampa Bay roster. But don’t expect QB3-like production again. Career highs are called career highs for a reason.

It’s a little absurd just how talented and deep the Tampa Bay WR corps is. It seems like they can go at least four deep, and every one of them is an excellent route runner and more than comfortable catching the ball outside of their frame. It’s a good thing they’re as deep as they are, too, because there are a lot of questions at the top. Chris Godwin was the WR2 overall through seven weeks before dislocating his ankle. There’s currently no timetable for his return. Mike Evans is seemingly immortal, and he’s turning 32 on August 21st. So the odds Emeka Egbuka and/or Jalen McMillan see extensive playing time are pretty good.

A quick word of caution to you. Don’t take the bait on Cade Otton. He had a three-week stretch where he finished as TE5 or better each week, and he finished TE14 or better in six of seven weeks. That period of time lined up with Mike Evans missing time due to injury, and Otton was the only other option aside from Chris Godwin. This year, there are a myriad of options. Otton isn’t bad, and if he’s called into service, he can produce. Just understand he’s likely waiting for a call that’s not going to come.

I know I break with convention ranking Sean Tucker as the primary RB2 to own on the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay coaching staff goes out of its way to talk up Tucker, while Rachaad White has been phenomenally inefficient running the ball. Maybe it doesn’t start the year this way. It never feels good to come out and be wrong in Week 1. But we don’t win championships in Week 1. Speaking of which….

If There is a League Winner In Tampa Bay, It’s…

Sean Tucker.

Maybe you saw this coming based on the previous section. Look, I like Bucky Irving. There’s no logical reason his body should be able to do what it does for someone of his size. But that’s part of the point, too. His body just isn’t built to hold up to 300+ touches over the course of the year, and the Buccaneers’ coaches know it.

Enter Tucker. He’s not a huge RB, but he’s thick, stocky, and he runs like it in a good way. The only reason Tucker fell in the NFL draft is that he had a heart issue diagnosed during the pre-draft process. We never learned the full impact of that, but it’s behind him now. Tucker is a talented RB in his own right, and teams probably would have drafted him ahead of where Bucky went.

Deep League Draft Target

I’m on a roll, I might as well keep it going. Sean Tucker makes for a perfect deep league dart throw. Few barriers, positive buzz, past performance, it’s all there for the taking. And fantasy players are taking him so late that he’s all but a FREE Bingo square. 

With an ADP of 286 according to FantasyPros, you, too, can own my favorite late-round target for the low, low price of a late 23rd-round draft pick.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.