Welcome to the NFC East version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Washington Commanders. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Washington Commanders in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	0.29
4th Down Go For It!	28.36 +
Target GINI	0.5357
Rushing GINI	0.5912 –
Plays/Game: Offense	66 +

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Jayden Daniels	QB5
Brian Robinson	RB29
Austin Ekeler	RB35
Terry McLaurin	WR6
Olamide Zaccheaus	WR70
Noah Brown	WR89
Zach Ertz	TE8
Austin Seibert	K21

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Olamide Zaccheaus

Added: Deebo Samuel, Jacory Croskey-Merritt

With only five picks in the draft, the Commanders didn’t have the ammunition to make a ton of moves. Day 3 WR Jaylin Lane and RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt both hope they make the final 53 and have some impact this year.

Washington’s offensive line overperformed in ’24, so what do the Commanders do? They trade for the excellent Laremy Tunsil to man the LT spot and draft Josh Conerly to plug the RT spot. It will take some time for the offensive line to gel, but it bodes well for the team going forward.

All significant parts of the coaching staff and front office remain the same, so we don’t expect to see big changes in philosophy.

Looking Ahead to the Washington Commanders in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Jayden Daniels	5
Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler	2
Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Noah Brown	4
Zach Ertz	2
Matt Gay	3

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Jayden Daniels	QB2
Brian Robinson	RB32
Austin Ekeler	RB48
Terry McLaurin	WR25
Deebo Samuel	WR34
Noah Brown	WR81
Zach Ertz	TE17
Matt Gay	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	New York Giants	W
2	@ Green Bay	W
3	Las Vegas	W
4	@ Atlanta	L
5	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L
6	Chicago	W
7	@ Dallas	L
8	@ Kansas City	L
9	Seattle	W
10	Detroit	W
11	@ Miami	W
12	BYE	–
13	Denver	W
14	@ Minnesota	L
15	@ New York Giants	L
16	Philadelphia	W
17	Dallas	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 10-6

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Commanders

“Lou, you didn’t rank Matt Gay!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. It’s an excellent offense that loves to go for it on 4th downs. Seems fine? #Analysis

The metaphorical elephant in the room is obviously Terry McLaurin and his holdout. Or hold in. Or whatever it is now, I can’t keep up. As you can see, I’m overall a bit lower on him this year than his finish last year, and that’s only partly due to his hold-whatever. The short version is that he has actual target competition in Deebo Samuel this year, and it’s common for sophomore wunderkind QBs to take a relative step backwards as the league adjusts to them. See also: 2024 C.J. Stroud. That we now have an additional layer of uncertainty on top of these factors due to the hold in continues to knock him slightly.

I won’t start moving him down significantly until we start getting within two weeks of the regular season, and he still hasn’t reported. There’s still plenty of time, as of August 15th, for him to beat that deadline. But the clock is ticking on his fantasy season.

As much as Zach Ertz was a security blanket for Jayden Daniels in his rookie season, I believe his role will wane this year. Not due to an erosion of Ertz’s skills, Ertz is apparently ageless, just as Tony Gonzalez was at the end of his career, but due to the presence of Deebo Samuel. In ’24, Ertz was the beneficiary of Kliff Kingsbury‘s “unique” offense. In ’25, that role goes to Samuel. 

If it looks like I’m lower on the Washington RBs than most, well, I am, and I’m not. In terms of the entire season, yes, they’ll be disappointing, and their end-of-season ranking won’t look good. However, there will be certain weeks throughout the year where they’ll be somewhere between startable and very good options. The trick will be to figure out who and when.

If There is a League Winner In Washington, it’s…

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Remember how I talked about the Commanders’ RBs not being particularly impressive? Well, here we go. If we look at the Rushing GINI advanced stat, it tells us a story of the team looking for an RB and then not being satisfied with the results. 

Enter Jacory Croskey-Merritt, or JCM, as his teammates are calling him. JCM has a combination of vision, suddenness, and speed that the other RBs on the roster simply do not have at this point in their respective careers. He was a 7th-round draft pick, so he still has an uphill climb compared to the incumbents who will get first dibs on the job.

That’s fine. Let Robinson and Ekeler show they still can’t do the job and bang their head against the proverbial wall. Keep JCM on your short list or at the end of your bench and just bide your time.

Deep League Draft Target

Jacory Croskey-Merritt certainly qualifies with a FantasyPros ADP of 250, but we can go deeper.

To be perfectly honest, I wanted the chance to talk about Ben Sinnott. Sinnott had a great training camp as a rookie in ’24, and then suffered an injury and lost his rookie year to that injury. Now he’s back healthy again, and the future of the position is behind aging stalwart Zach Ertz. It’s very possible Ertz fends off yet another burgeoning TE. It’s also possible the creaky wheels finally fall off for Ertz. Sinnott has the athleticism and skills to take advantage if that happens and would produce immediately in a high-powered offense.

With a FantasyPros ADP of 311, Sinnott is the definition of a deep-league dart throw.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.