Welcome to the NFC North version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Chicago Bears. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Chicago Bears in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-2.09
4th Down Go For It!	26.76 +
Target GINI	0.6365 +
Rushing GINI	0.7299
Plays/Game: Offense	62.6

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Caleb Williams	QB16
D’Andre Swift	RB19
Roschon Johnson	RB53
D.J. Moore	WR16
Keenan Allen	WR34
Rome Odunze	WR48
Cole Kmet	TE18
Cairo Santos	K24

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Keenan Allen

Added: Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, all the O-Linemen

Chicago managed to make meaningful picks for both fantasy and real football alike throughout the draft. First-round pick Colston Loveland and second-round pick Luther Burden get all the press, of course. But don’t overlook Kyle Monangai, who Chicago selected in the 7th round. More on him later.

Chicago’s offensive line was outright dreadful in 2024. Despite this, they had relative bright spots at both OT spots, and both players are still with Chicago for ’25. The Bears replaced the appalling middle of their offensive line with expensive free agents Joe Thuney and Drew Dalman, and traded for Jonah Jackson. If this unit is even league-average in ’25, and it could be that and better, it would be a massive upgrade whose rising tide lifts all boats.

The Bears finally got The Guy as coach! The much-ballyhooed Ben Johnson landed in Chicago in the offseason, breaking with Chicago’s tradition of settling for the 7th-best option. Now, we should expect anything and everything to change at every level of the Bears.

Looking Ahead to the Chicago Bears in 2025

Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Caleb Williams	3
D’Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai	2
Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, Luther Burden (R)	5
Colston Loveland (R)	3
Cairo Santos	4

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Caleb Williams	QB6
D’Andre Swift	RB18
Kyle Monangai	RB67
Rome Odunze	WR17
D.J. Moore	WR23
Luther Burden (R)	WR67
Colston Loveland (R)	TE23
Cairo Santos	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	Minnesota	W
2	@ Detroit	L
3	Dallas	W
4	@ Las Vegas	W
5	BYE	–
6	@ Washington	L
7	New Orleans	W
8	@ Baltimore	L
9	@ Cincinnati	W
10	New York Giants	W
11	@ Minnesota	L
12	Pittsburgh	L
13	@ Philadelphia	L
14	@ Green Bay	W
15	Cleveland	W
16	Green Bay	W
17	@ San Francisco	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 10-6

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Bears

“Lou, you didn’t rank Cairo Santos!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Santos has always been accurate, but his range has only extended to about 50 yards. He hit a 57-yard FG in the preseason, so maybe he’ll be worth more?

I have to think Bears fans are still pinching themselves, wondering if this is all a dream, and with good reason. The Bears finally ponied up for quality coaching and found themselves with the pick of the litter in Ben Johnson. It’s difficult for someone to have a resume that’s more decorated than Johnson’s, especially for such a young coach. And there’s hope that he brings his magical touch to the Windy City.

What should signify equally fortuitous is the attention they paid to their offensive line. When it comes to the Bears’ G-C-G combo, there are no words for how poorly coached they were or for how disastrously they played. To upgrade not one, not two, but all three positions with high-quality players in a single offseason is no small feat. We will see a direct upgrade in QB production, RB production, and pass-catcher production as a result. I cannot say enough good things about this development.

However, there’s a ton of ambiguity when it comes to the Chicago skill position players. We know Ben Johnson’s history of having a strong running game and a passing game built on timing and precision. While we can expect the overarching goals to be the same, how we get there could be markedly different. Jared Goff is a much different QB than Caleb Williams in terms of strengths, weaknesses, and style. What’s more, there are a ton of options within the offense.

The Bears have five legitimate pass-catching threats between D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Cole Kmet, and Colston Loveland. Their WR4, Olamide Zaccheaus, is decent enough that he could be a WR3 on many teams in his own right. D’Andre Swift is great out in space and arguably better as a pass-catcher than he is as a runner.

All of this makes it very difficult to have a good feel for who, if anyone, will stand out head and shoulders above the others. All of which brings me to….

If There is a League Winner In Chicago, It’s…

Caleb Williams

Yeah, it does seem weird to have a QB in this spot, especially one I have ranked so highly. But walk with me for a moment. This is a completely new offensive scheme. Heck, thanks to Ben Johnson, this is a completely new culture he’s instilling. We assume it’ll look like Detroit if he has his way, but ultimately, we’re guessing at who will be the centerpieces of the offense. If anyone.

If anyone. Remember back in the early days of the Tom Brady-led Patriots? We never knew who would get the ball in a given week, but we knew Brady would be the one leading the way. We have a similar situation now in Chicago, only the supporting pieces are much better than the Patriots had.

So how does the “league winner” aspect come into play? Much the same way that Jayden Daniels was a league winner in 2024. In short, the cost to acquire him. Right now, Caleb Williams has an ADP of 108 according to FantasyPros, which is a late 9th-round pick in 12-team leagues. I’m telling you that you can get a QB in the same tier as Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow late in the 9th round, and that, my friend, is how you have a QB as a league winner.

Deep League Draft Target

I’m going to cheat here and name two simply because they’re so close in ADP. Roschon Johnson and Kyle Monangai with ADPs according to FantasyPros of 209 and 212, respectively.

If you’re following my rankings, you know I think D’Andre Swift is a pretty good option after the top RBs have gone off the board. However, what he lacks is a short-yardage and goal-line punch. That’s where both Johnson and Monangai excel. I have listed both because I believe that role shifts throughout the season. I suspect Johnson is the early-season beneficiary of the goal-line work, and then as Monongai gains the trust of the coaching staff once the games count, we’ll see that role and potentially more transition to him.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.