Welcome to the AFC North version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Cincinnati Bengals. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Cincinnati Bengals in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	8.16 +
4th Down Go For It!	18.27
Target GINI	0.5901
Rushing GINI	0.7085
Plays/Game: Offense	63.5

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Joe Burrow	QB2
Chase Brown	RB12
Zack Moss	RB52
Ja’Marr Chase	WR1
Tee Higgins	WR17
Andrei Iosivas	WR61
Mike Gesicki	TE14
Evan McPherson	K29

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Literally nobody

Added: Also, literally nobody

Most fantasy analysts and players expected Cincinnati to tap into the deep and talented RB class and bring in real competition for Chase Brown. To put it bluntly, that didn’t happen, unless you count the Bengals drafting Tahj Brooks in the 6th round.

However, as much as Cincinnati’s defense was a problem in ’24, their offensive line was as much, if not more, of a problem. The good news is the Bengals return 3 of 5 starters. The bad news is that they return 3 of 5 starters. Hopefully, their two new Gs can make a positive impact, or Joe Burrow will be running for his life again.

Cincinnati’s coaching staff remains unchanged from ’24 to ’25, so we don’t expect much, if anything, to change schematically.

Looking Ahead to the Cincinnati Bengals in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Joe Burrow	5
Chase Brown, Zack Moss	4
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas	5
Mike Gesicki	3
Evan McPherson	1

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Joe Burrow	QB5
Chase Brown	RB14
Zack Moss	RB96
Ja’Marr Chase	WR1
Tee Higgins	WR15
Andrei Iosivas	WR80
Mike Gesicki	TE11
Evan McPherson	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Cleveland	L
2	Jacksonville	W
3	@ Minnesota	W
4	@ Denver	L
5	Detroit	L
6	@ Green Bay	L
7	Pittsburgh	W
8	New York Jets	W
9	Chicago	L
10	BYE	–
11	@ Pittsburgh	L
12	New England	W
13	@ Baltimore	L
14	@ Buffalo	W
15	Baltimore	W
16	@ Miami	W
17	Arizona	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 9-7

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Bengals

“Lou, you didn’t rank Evan McPherson!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Evan had his issues in ’24 and then suffered an injury, so I’m not confident in him. But maybe he’ll be good thanks to the Bengals’ offense?

Joe Burrow has never seen a situation he didn’t feel like he couldn’t throw his way out of, and that’s why we love him as a fantasy QB. Considering that Burrow isn’t a running QB a la Allen or Daniels, or the like, finishing QB2 for ’24 is an impressive feat. I’d generally argue that a non-running QB isn’t in contention for QB1 on a yearly basis, and I stand by that with my ’25 ranking. Burrow is the QB exception that proves the rule. I, for one, am eating up our modern-day Dan Marino.

The Target GINI may lead you to think Cincinnati doesn’t silo their passing offense as well as the top teams in the NFL, but you’d be mistaken. While Tee Higgins only played in 12 games, he still garnered 109 targets. On a 17-game pace, that’s 154 targets, which would have been good for 4th in the NFL in ’24. Don’t be scared off Cincinnati’s “WR2” – in quotes because Higgins would be the top target earner on most teams – in ’25.

Dynasty owners of Chase Brown were holding their collective breath during the ’25 NFL draft, which was thick with talented RBs. We were certain one of them would find their way to the Cincinnati roster to replace the former 5th-round pick. However, that didn’t happen until the 6th round in Tahj Brooks. That’s not a knock on Brooks, who is by all accounts a quality RB in his own right. Cincinnati’s coaching staff has been effusive and relentless in their praise of Brown throughout the early summer and beginning of training camp, insisting he will be a main focus of their offense. Considering how potent this Cincinnati offense is, we’d be foolish to ignore him.

Note: Lou has updated his RB rankings since submitting this post. Check out his updated rankings, which are always current, here.

If There is a League Winner In Cincinnati, it’s…

Ok, but I don’t think there is one. Instead, I wanna talk about their TE. It’s my article, I can do what I want with it.

So what do we do with Mike Gesicki?

This is a valid question. Let me take you on a roller coaster ride that was his 2024. 

For the first seven weeks of the season, Gesicki was essentially MIA aside from a random week where he saw 9 targets. Sounds like normal “insert random TE here” type of stuff. Then over the next three weeks, he saw at least 6 targets every game and was TE1 in one of those games. Naturally, he only saw 16 total targets over the five weeks following that stretch. Only to average 9 targets/game over Cincinnati’s final two games. The very definition of inconsistent.

Gesicki fits squarely in the slew of “any of these 9001 TEs could be a low TE1 in any given week.” If you think that doesn’t sound particularly exciting to you on the surface, well, you’re not alone. What should be exciting to you is his cost. According to FantasyPros ADP, Gesicki is clocking in at TE25, making him almost free. For a TE with legitimate TE1 upside thanks to a pass-happy offense and no defense to speak of, that’s a bargain bin I’m willing to shop in every single time.

Ok, I’m done with that little side trip now. Now back to your regularly scheduled article.

Deep League Draft Target

Listen, I hear you, OK? Even before I mention this player’s name, I can hear your well-warranted complaints ringing in my head. If ever there was a fantasy football “hear me out,” it’s Jermaine Burton. See? I told you!

The talk coming out of Cincinnati this year is markedly different than what we heard at this time last year. At that point, it was all, “If Burton can get his head on straight…” “Can Burton mature?” and “Burton is sleeping through meetings.” This year, we have teammates talking about his maturity and Burton himself downplaying it.

OK, so, Burton is learning to be a pro; that’s great. However, Higgins re-signed, and there’s not the wide-open spot on the depth chart there once was. That’s absolutely correct. Among a fantastic class of WRs in ’24, Burton belonged right there with the best, IF he could get his head on straight. He’ll need an injury or two in order to meet this potential, but top 20 WR potential is there for Burton if it happens. Maybe even top 10 considering the offense.

That’s not bad for a guy outside of the top 300 in ADP according to FantasyPros.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.