Welcome to the AFC South version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Indianapolis Colts. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and finally, I’ll cover what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Indianapolis Colts in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-8.58 –
4th Down Go For It!	21.37
Target GINI	0.524
Rushing GINI	0.6965
Plays/Game: Offense	61.2

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a + means it’s significantly, at least one standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a – means it’s significantly below average.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure, it makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run, such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.
“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Anthony Richardson	QB25
Jonathan Taylor	RB9
Trey Sermon	RB68
Josh Downs	WR36
Alec Pierce	WR39
Michael Pittman	WR43
Does It Matter? (Mo Alie-Cox)	No, It Doesn’t (TE56)
Matt Gay	K12

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Trey Sermon

Signed: Daniel Jones

For a team perpetually picking in the top half of the first round of the NFL draft, there were shockingly few roster changes going from ’24 to ’25. The biggest were the Colts bringing in Daniel Jones to compete with Richardson at QB, and the Colts drafting TE Tyler Warren at 14 in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

The unsettled QB position for the last couple of years has masked above-average-to-great offensive line play in Indianapolis, and 2025 should be no different in terms of OL quality. No matter which QB plays, they have a solid offensive line to rely on.

The biggest differences in Indianapolis’ front office are that they have a new defensive coordinator, and longtime Colts owner Jim Irsay passed away. The former won’t do much for us for fantasy, but the latter was a known meddler in on-field decisions. So we could see a marked difference in how things play out this year, especially compared to what we’re used to.

Looking Ahead to the Indianapolis Colts in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Daniel Jones	1
Jonathan Taylor, Khalil Herbert	4
Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce	2
Tyler Warren (R)	3
Spencer Shrader	1

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Daniel Jones	QB28
Jonathan Taylor	RB11
Khalil Herbert	RB89
Josh Downs	WR37
Michael Pittman	WR48
Alec Pierce	WR68
Tyler Warren (R)	TE12
Spencer Shrader	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	Miami	L
2	Denver	L
3	@ Tennessee	W
4	@ Los Angeles Rams	L
5	Las Vegas	W
6	Arizona	W
7	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L
8	Tennessee	W
9	@ Pittsburgh	L
10	Atlanta	W
11	BYE	–
12	Kansas City	L
13	Houston	L
14	@ Jacksonville	L
15	@ Seattle	W
16	San Francisco	L
17	Jacksonville	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 8-9

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Colts

“Lou, you didn’t rank Spencer Shrader!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. I don’t have strong feelings on Spencer Shrader, and you can’t make me have them.

As of today (early August), I have Daniel Jones ahead of Anthony Richardson in my projections by the slimmest of margins.

HOWEVER – if you’re thinking that’s a big “however,” you’re exactly right, it is – Richardson has put several solid-to-very-good practices together in a row. The challenge for him has always been consistency. If this is a sign of things to come, Richardson will be leapfrogging Jones soon. I update my redraft rankings weekly, so you can check there to see where I currently stand. As of today, Richardson is giving me hope. 

People rightly make a big deal of Richardson’s poor QB play. However, his struggles masked what was a revolting pass-catching crew in ’24. The TEs get all the publicity for their ineffectiveness, and I have to think the WRs are glad because they were hideous in their own right. All together, the Colts’ QBs threw a total of 89 passes to targets with a non-negative Catch Rate Over Expected (CROE). That’s #NotGood, in case that’s not clear. As much as Richardson needs to be better for his pass-catchers, they need to be better, period. 

If you reference the advanced stats from ’24, you’ll notice the Colts had a significantly negative PROE. This means they ran the ball a lot more than you’d expect. It’s not terribly surprising given their QB struggles last year, of course. What this tells me is Jonathan Taylor has a higher built-in floor than other RBs thanks to Shane Steichen’s proclivity just to say, “I don’t care what down and distance it is, we’re running the ball.”

If There is a League Winner On Indianapolis, it’s…

Anthony Richardson (QB)

If it seems to you like I’m a little too focused on Richardson, it’s because, well, yeah, I am. 

It’s all too easy to forget how highly regarded Richardson was coming into the NFL. What’s more, over his first four starts, a grand total of 172 snaps, Richardson averaged .44 fantasy points/snap. To put that into perspective: 2024’s QB1, Lamar Jackson, averaged .44 fantasy points/snap. This is rare air that Richardson is capable of reaching.

I won’t fault you if you don’t believe in Richardson, I get it. And I’d be remiss in my duties if I didn’t present the case for him, as well.

Deep League Draft Target

The fantasy community clearly believes Alec Pierce’s 2024 finish was a fluke. I have to say, I’m one of those people as well. To this point, Pierce has remained on the field in 2-WR sets, which means he’s on the field for more snaps than a slot-only WR like Josh Downs. It seems unsustainable, but Pierce’s skill on deep balls is undeniable at this point. After a WR39 finish in ’24, we probably should be paying more attention than we are.

Currently, Alec Pierce is going with pick 224 according to FantasyPros. This puts him as a mid-19th-round pick in 12-team leagues and is well worth a flier.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.