Welcome to the AFC West version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Kansas City Chiefs. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Kansas City Chiefs in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	5.86 +
4th Down Go For It!	16.15
Target GINI	0.6256 +
Rushing GINI	0.7435
Plays/Game: Offense	62.7

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passes the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Patrick Mahomes	QB11
Kareem Hunt	RB30
Samaje Perine	RB54
Xavier Worthy	WR33
DeAndre Hopkins	WR47
Rashee Rice	WR98
Travis Kelce	TE6
Harrison Butker	K28

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Samaje Perine, DeAndre Hopkins

Added: Brashard Smith, Jalen Royals

Exit the veterans, enter the youth. Kansas City added depth players at both RB and WR in the draft. However, the Chiefs only selected Jalen Royals prior to Day 3. Both players look like developmental projects who may not see significant fantasy production in 2025.

For the 9001st year in a row, Kansas City was unsuccessful in its endeavors to solve its revolving door at LT problem. This year, highly touted rookie Josh Simmons will take on that task. C and RG are both positions of literal strength for the Chiefs; however, every other position on the offensive line has major question marks. If not outright problems. 

I don’t think it’s possible for a front office to be more stable than Kansas City’s is. Whether that’s good or bad for fantasy remains in the eye of the beholder.

Looking Ahead to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Patrick Mahomes	4
Isiah Pacheco, Brashard Smith	2
Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown	4
Travis Kelce	3
Harrison Butker	4

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Patrick Mahomes	QB11
Isiah Pacheco	RB21
Brashard Smith	RB44
Rashee Rice	WR28
Xavier Worthy	WR31
Marquise Brown	WR68
Travis Kelce	TE13
Harrison Butker	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W
2	Philadelphia	L
3	@ New York Giants	W
4	Baltimore	W
5	@ Jacksonville	W
6	Detroit	L
7	Las Vegas	W
8	Washington	W
9	@ Buffalo	L
10	BYE	–
11	Denver	L
12	Indianapolis	W
13	@ Dallas	W
14	Houston	W
15	Los Angeles Chargers	L
16	@ Tennessee	W
17	Denver	W

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 11-5

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Chiefs

“Lou, you didn’t rank Harrison Butker!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. Maybe Butker will focus less on who belongs in the kitchen and more on kicking this year. We can hope.

This is kind of an odd team to write about because it feels like we’ve been writing about these same players for so long that what could possibly be new about them? There are quickly moving waters running treacherously below the surface, however, and the times they are a-changin’. 

As time goes by and we get more and more information from training camp, the more confident I’m becoming in the Kansas City RBs and Isiah Pacheco in particular. Pacheco is getting a ton of work, is heavily involved in the passing game down the field, and is fully recovered from his broken leg. Aside from Brashard Smith, I don’t really have high hopes for any of the other RBs. However, as a group? I like them a lot better. Kinda like the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. 

The proverbial elephant in the room is, of course, a coming Rashee Rice suspension. According to the latest report, the team is anticipating a 4-game suspension for Rice. With appeals being what they are in the NFL and what have you, I’m currently treating him as if the NFL will suspend him for two games. On a points per game basis, I have Rice valued as WR11. This creates an opportunity to pair Rice with a later WR – think Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir, that type of player that you would want for your WR4 anyhow – and end up combining the performances of the two for ~WR13 or so performance. This becomes an especially attractive strategy if Rice’s ADP falls beyond his current value of WR20.

The questions everyone has on their minds have to do with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. “Will they be able to run it back one last time?” At least, one last time in terms of Kelce, of course. Mahomes has years (decades?) left, more’s the pity if you’re a fan of another AFC team. In the end, the defense for Kansas City is “too good,” if such a thing exists, for them to return to their glory days of winning your fantasy weeks for you. Kansas City’s goal is the Super Bowl, not the regular season. And they play like it. 

If There is a League Winner In Kansas City, it’s…

Brashard Smith.

Do you remember the tear Jerick McKinnon went on a couple of years ago as the change-of-pace RB for Kansas City? It’s OK if you don’t. In 2022, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was flaming out, 7th-round rookie Isiah Pacheco was coming on, but there was nobody to fill the pass-catching role. Enter McKinnon, who, starting in Week 13 that season, changed pace to the tune of overall RB2 performance behind only Christian McCaffrey. Ever since that ’22 season, Kansas City has lacked an effective player in that role.

Now, make no mistake – Smith has work to do to fulfill this promise. He’s currently 4th on the depth chart and a rookie with a lot to learn about Reid’s offense. With all of that said, he has the speed, the shiftiness, and the skill running the ball that he can bring home the hardware for you if given the opportunity.

Deep League Draft Target

I know I just went on and on about Brashard Smith, and I do believe in him. But there’s another RB on the roster we need to pay more attention to, and that’s Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell has been snakebitten by injuries over the past couple of years, but it wasn’t long ago that he was the RB du jour in San Francisco, who was running and catching his way into fantasy managers’ hearts. If injuries derail Isiah Pacheco’s season again and/or Kareem Hunt remains uninspiring, Mitchell is very capable of carrying the load himself.

With an ADP of 252 according to FantasyPros, Elijah Mitchell is often available in the 20th-21st rounds in a 12-team league. These are the guys to know about so you can stay ready.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.