Welcome to the AFC East version of Optimus Fantasy’s Team Previews! Today, we’re looking at the Miami Dolphins. In order to best know where we’re going, we often need to study where we’ve been. With that in mind, I will cover what the team looked like in 2024, fantasy significant changes to philosophy and personnel, and what I expect from the team in 2025. Your fantasy drafts are coming. Stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.

The Miami Dolphins in 2024

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Team Stats
PROE	-2.375
4th Down – Go For It!	24.80% +
Target GINI	0.6152 +
Rushing GINI	0.6999
Plays/Game – Offense	63.6

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Let’s start off by defining a few things, shall we?

Note: Any stat highlighted green with a “+” means it’s significantly, at least 1 standard deviation, above average. Any stat highlighted red with a “-“ means it’s significantly below average. If the stat is highlighted in blue and doesn’t have a symbol, it is within the standard deviation for that stat.

PROE – Pass Rate Over Expectation

2nd and 1 for the offense? Sure makes sense to run. 3rd and 12? Yup, absolutely reasonable to pass. PROE measures how often a team passed the ball when we would “expect” them to run. Such as on 2nd and 1. Obviously, this is our expectation, and part of the strategy is to do the unexpected. So it’s not a perfect encapsulation. However, over 17 games, this gives us a general idea of how an offensive coaching staff envisions their offensive strengths.

4th Down – Go For It!

It’s kinda just what it sounds like. Unlike PROE, there’s no “expectation” to this stat. Of all 4th downs, this is how often a team chose to go for it. Higher rates mean an offense has more chances to accumulate fantasy points. Conversely, it’s not as great for kickers. 

Target GINI

This is where my background in economics comes out. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, Target GINI is how concentrated a passing attack is among pass-catching targets. A Target GINI of 1 means every target went to one player. Perfectly evenly distributed targets among players result in a Target GINI of 0. 

Rushing GINI

The same as Target GINI, but for rushing. So a Rushing GINI of 1 means one player had 100% of the rushing attempts. A Rushing GINI of 0 means every player received an equal number of rushing attempts.

“Ok, I get what GINI is, but how is it helpful for us?” You know, you’re really great with these questions. Are you sure you’re not a fantasy football expert? At any rate, these metrics tell us how concentrated or siloed a team’s passing and rushing attacks are. For fantasy, we’re looking for them both to be as close to 1 as possible.

Plays/Game: Offense

Literally just what it sounds like, this is an average of how many plays per game a team’s offense runs. The idea is that more offensive plays equal more opportunities for our players to score fantasy points. Simple enough, right?

The good news is Miami’s offense remained aggressive and siloed in ’24, and they played fast enough that they definitely weren’t “slow.” 

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Top Performers (HPPR 2024)
Tua Tagovailoa	Q20
De’Von Achane	RB6
Jaylen Wright	RB90
Tyreek Hill	WR21
Jaylen Waddle	WR50
Malik Washington	WR110
Julian Hill	TE68
Jason Sanders	K4

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Significant Offseason Changes from ’24 to ’25

Lost: Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert

Added: Darren Waller, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Miami’s draft class is one that won’t tip the fantasy scales, focusing primarily on defense. The first fantasy-relevant selection wasn’t until the 6th round.

Miami’s offensive line went through huge changes from ’24 to ’25. Most notable is the retirement of LT stalwart Terron Armstead. There’s hope that additions and infused youth will bear fruit for what’s been a struggling unit for years, but at best, it will take time.

All significant parts of the coaching staff and front office remain the same, so we don’t expect to see big changes in philosophy. 

Looking Ahead to Miami in 2025

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Lou’s Confidence Level 1 – 5
Tua Tagovailoa	3
De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright	4
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Malik Washington	4
Julian Hill	0
Jason Sanders	3

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Lou’s 2025 HPPR Rankings
Tua Tagovailoa	QB23
De’Von Achane	RB2
Jaylin Wright	RB90
Tyreek Hill	WR19
Jaylen Waddle	WR24
Malik Washington	WR89
Julian Hill	–
Jason Sanders	–

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Week	Opponent	Expected W/L
1	@ Indianapolis	W
2	New England	W
3	@ Buffalo	L
4	New York Jets	W
5	@ Carolina	L
6	Los Angeles Chargers	L
7	@ Cleveland	W
8	@ Atlanta	W
9	Baltimore	L
10	Buffalo	L
11	Washington	L
12	BYE	–
13	New Orleans	W
14	@ New York Jets	L
15	@ Pittsburgh	W
16	Cincinnati	L
17	Tampa Bay	L

Lou’s projected 2025 “fantasy season” record: 7-9

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OK, Now For the Important (Non-Kicker) Dolphins

“Lou, you didn’t rank Jason Sanders!” Very astute, and you are correct. I’m a big believer in saying, “I don’t know,” when someone asks me about things I’m ignorant about. I’m kicker-dumb. So if you’re here looking for insight on kickers, I’m very sorry. The best thing I can tell you is Miami kicks a decent number of FGs, and Miami didn’t bring in competition for Sanders.

Yes, I know my Confidence rankings go from 1 to 5. Yes, I know I ranked Julian Hill at 0. That’s mainly because I don’t believe he will actually be the starter, and before you ask, no, I do not believe Darren Waller even makes it out of training camp. I don’t know who takes that spot, but I don’t think it’s Julian Hill.

For better or worse, not much has changed with the Miami offense. The big thing that has changed is significant, though. That’s the trade of Jonnu Smith and his 111 2024 targets to Pittsburgh. Miami used Smith mainly in the short area to help put the offense into favorable down-and-distance situations. That’s the main thing driving my Achane rank of RB2. It’s also what bolsters Jaylen Waddle’s ranking after what I can only describe as a disastrous ’24 for the electric WR. 

Tua is the definition of “fine” as a fantasy QB. As long as he can avoid getting his brains scrambled, that is. Sadly, that’s become an increasingly common occurrence for Tua over the years, and Mike McDaniel is unable to scheme or doesn’t trust the other QBs on the roster to run the offense when Tua is out. Both of those aspects combined definitely suppress the expectations of the non-Achane Dolphins.

If There is a League Winner In Miami, it’s…

Jaylen Wright.

Yeah, yeah, I know, my rankings have him way down. So what gives? Frankly, Jaylen Wright does everything De’Von Achane does in terms of a skill set. Yes, he does them at a “volume” of 4 instead of Achane’s 10, but still, they line up pretty well. Inexperience buried Wright on the depth chart; on the other hand, as a rookie. Moreover, he couldn’t get on the field for more than a play or two, even when injuries sidelined everyone else in front of him.

So why would I call Wright a potential league winner? In a word – speed. We all know Mike McDaniel is obsessed with it, and Wright has it in spades. Wright lacked the pass-blocking and grasp of the scheme in ’24. However, if he’s able to make progress at both in ’25, he has the speed to literally run away with the job if Achane misses a good chunk of time.

With an ADP of RB50 according to FantasyPros, Wright isn’t exactly cheap. Especially compared to my ranking. The right play might be to let someone else draft him, get frustrated when he doesn’t do anything early, and then scoop him up off the waiver wire later in the year.

Deep League Draft Target

I have to keep my eye on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. To be very clear – his TD luck from ’24 has no chance of repeating in ’25. However, Westbrook-Ikhine has two things that nobody else in the Miami WR room has – size and strength. Where everyone else’s strength in the Miami offense is speed and speed only – see also the diminutive De’Von Achane – Westbrook-Ikhine uses his size effectively. If Miami is going to add a different element to their offense in ’25, it will be through Westbrook-Ikhine.

With an ADP of 326 per FantasyPros, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is beyond free even for many dynasty leagues.

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Lou Brunson is a Senior Analyst and THE social media brains for Optimus Fantasy. Find his dynasty stylings on right here and at draftbuddy.com.