We’re in Week 4, and we have a few data points under our belt, which give us some insight into what these teams are doing this season. We’re no longer guessing with utilization and using what we have at our disposal to make informed decisions.

In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts he has about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow.

NFL Week 4 Fantasy Football Angles and Leverage

*All odds courtesy of FantasyLabs

Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (41 Over/Under)

Minnesota Vikings

• Jordan Addison is back, likely to jump into at least 75% of routes, but he’s still a borderline flex play against the Steelers and with Carson Wentz as the QB.
• You’re playing the rest of the hits with Minnesota (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Mason, T.J. Hockenson). Still, the upside comes down, and there’s always the International Series angle of having to go to another country with truncated practice time, jet lag, etc.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• I find it difficult to wake up at 9:30 AM EST to watch Aaron Rodgers throw for 130 yards. The upside for this passing game is shockingly low, which is why I’ve been out on D.K. Metcalf for the most part.
• Jaylen Warren is questionable (knee) but is likely to play, still downgraded for the overseas game. Kenneth Gainwell feels like a much more annoying pest to anything Warren does, and feels like he’s going to get more touches than we want.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Giants (43.5)

Los Angeles Chargers

• Any one of the Chargers’ three receivers could be WR1 in a given week. You’re starting all three of Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Keenan Allen. McConkey is very much due here, as we haven’t seen much of the catch-and-run stuff from the Chargers.
• I’m very interested to see what becomes of Oronde Gadsden in his second game. Will Dissly is out again, which could open up some opportunities for more routes. We’ll see if the genie is truly out of the bottle. A 40% target per route run in his first game is strong, strong stuff.
• Not expecting Kimani Vidal or Hassan Haskins to factor in any more than just low-leverage touches behind Omarion Hampton, so that we could see about ~80% of snaps and ~65% of routes from him in Week 4. An extended run for any other back behind him is likely because of game script stuff, where the Chargers dominate.

New York Giants

• Jaxson Dart‘s first start, so the jury is still out. Not starting him, so we have to wait and see if there’s any viability. However, mobility is a plus, so the floor is a little lower for passing with rushing work in play.
• No Tyrone Tracy, so expect plenty of Cam Skattebo. Devin Singletary has been one of the best pass-protection backs in the league for several years, so he’ll get some time on the field on third downs. Still, Skattebo seems like a good bet for around 60% of the routes.
• Receiving work is likely to remain condensed with Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson. Still, Skattebo is probably the third target there, ahead of any of the secondary guys like Darius Slayton and Theo Johnson.

Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions (44.5)

Cleveland Browns

• PRAYING that the Joe Flacco volume thesis has kind of been there, but nothing has come of it after games with 45, 45, and 36 pass attempts. Just 5.0 yards per attempt for Flacco, worst in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. He looks 40 years old. Time for Dillon Gabriel?
• Jerry Jeudy is a flex play, David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. are low-end starters. You’ve got Quinshon Judkins, who is nearly a must-start back on the efficiency. He looks very Nick Chubb-ish in terms of a guy that is a great pure rusher and probably won’t add much in the receiving game.

Detroit Lions

• Play the hits with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jared Goff.
• Lowering David Montgomery as the Cleveland run defense has been amazing through three games, holding Chase Brown to 2.0 YPC, Derrick Henry to just 23 yards, and Josh Jacobs to 30 yards on 16 carries.
• Not worried about Jahmyr Gibbs as he can get there through receiving stuff, but also some efficiency on the ground, too, where they’ll use him smartly.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (44.5)

Philadelphia Eagles

• Heavily consolidated offense here, so you’re starting anybody of note here. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Hurts, and Saquon Barkley are all in play. Tampa pushing the Eagles could lead to more pass attempts for the Eagles. Last week, that resulted in double-digit targets for both Brown and Smith, plus a touchdown for Goedert.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Can the Buccaneers push the Eagles without Mike Evans? Chris Godwin is likely back as the Buccaneers shift to 11 personnel with Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Sterling Shepard, with Shepard coming off the field in 2WR sets. Godwin is a WR3/flex play for me in his return.
• Of course, you’re starting Bucky Irving and Baker Mayfield, though Mayfield is a lower-end QB1. I do think the Bucs CAN push the Eagles.

Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons (43.5)

Washington Commanders

• Not just no Jayden Daniels, but also no Terry McLaurin, no Noah Brown, no John Bates, and a questionable Jacory Croskey-Merritt. DFS players will pivot to Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols as tournament plays. I’m mostly hands-off with everybody here, except Zach Ertz. Maybe Jaylin Lane routes upside?

Atlanta Falcons

• Consolidated stuff here, but nice to see Darnell Mooney step right back into route volume in Week 3. He feels good as a volume flex play. You’re also feeling good about your Bijan Robinson and Drake London plays, too. Downgrade Kyle Pitts as volume skewing to Mooney lessens the Pitts play.

New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills (47.5)

New Orleans Saints

• Buffalo linebacker Matt Milano is out, so that puts Juwan Johnson squarely in play. You were likely to start Johnson anyway, but that just cements it even further.
• Chris Olave is also very much in play as a volume producer. Efficiency hasn’t been there, but the raw volume helps mitigate that somewhat.
• Alvin Kamara might be cooked, and he’s not getting a lot of first-read stuff (6.9% first-read rate this season) that he’s normally gotten in the receiving game. He’s a flex play, if that.

Buffalo Bills

• Buffalo is a MASSIVE favorite (16.5 points) at home, so Josh Allen and James Cook are your home run plays.
• Do you really want to pin any of your hopes on the receiving game? Khalil Shakir feels the most FINE, but Keon Coleman probably has the biggest upside of any play.
• Ray Davis could be your sneaky play, too, if you’re projecting they run the game out in the fourth quarter.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans (39.5)

Tennessee Titans

• It doesn’t feel good for anything here in this game, but toss out Elic Ayomanor as a low-owned DFS play. This has the makings of a 14-7 game. I’m sorry if this is a game on in your area.

Houston Texans

• Besides Nico Collins, nobody feels right. Christian Kirk SHOULD be a volume bet. Considering how the Texans love to get guys like Xavier Hutchinson on the field, it just all might be a wash at this point.
• You’re probably not starting Woody Marks here, but I am in a guillotine and don’t feel great about it. That’s only because Nick Chubb is getting WAY too much of a market share in Houston right now.

Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots (42.5)

Carolina Panthers

• Downgrading Tetairoa McMillan here to a flex play with Christian Gonzalez likely back here, but if Gonzalez is out, bring McMillan back to WR2 fantasy status in a game the Panthers may get over 45 pass attempts.
• Panthers have been decimated by injury with Chuba Hubbard, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Xavier Legette and McMillan all questionable, plus Jalen Coker on IR. An offense we liked as a riser hasn’t looked close to that through three weeks, but

New England Patriots

• Drake Maye has been the galvanizing force of this team, with the Patriots rolling out some of the worst pass-catchers not named Hunter Henry.
• Stefon Diggs is essentially the younger version of DeMario Douglas. All Patriots receivers not named Henry are sits.
• TreVeyon Henderson is the squeaky wheel game, but I am expecting more run from Rhamondre Stevenson than the expectation after last week’s fumbles.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Rams (49.5)

Indianapolis Colts

• No Alec Pierce, so Adonai Mitchell slots in as the outside routes guy, so perfect for DFS where there’s obviously upside there. I’m not sure if there’s volume there, so you’re clearly just playing the studs in Indianapolis, including Daniel Jones, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, and Jonathan Taylor.

Los Angeles Rams

• A big injury note is Davante Adams, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. He should play, so all is status quo for the Rams between all the guys you’d usually start.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers (46.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars

• This passing game is broken, but it’s a good spot in a shootout-ish game. Brian Thomas Jr. is up for his “Custer’s Last Stand” game for fantasy managers, but the game could be disappointing where the 49ers get out and the Jaguars can’t keep up. The wrist injury may be more of an issue, or he breaks out, and that’s in the dust.
• That’s a “no” for me on Parker Washington. If he’s getting serious target volume in this offense (15 targets in last two games, 111 air yards in Week 3), there’s issues. Dyami Brown is out, so take that as you choose.
• Travis Hunter is a sit until the team figures out how they want to use him on offense. If he’s going to play ~60% snaps on defense and NOT get designed touches on offense, he’s not useful for your fantasy lineup.
• Brenton Strange has 69.7%, 84.4%, and 70.5% routes so far in three games, so that’s a thing. Over five targets per game for somebody we drafted below TE15 is pretty good. He’s a lower-end play, and if this game shoots out, he’s got a solid runway.

San Francisco 49ers

• Brock Purdy is back in the lineup, but Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are both questionable. Both are expected to play, so both are in play here as a nearly full-strength 49ers offense means an efficiency boom.
• Remove every rushing fantasy point from Christian McCaffrey this season and ONLY take his receiving fantasy points. McCaffrey would be the WR10 in PPR scoring, behind Malik Nabers and ahead of Emeka Egbuka—kinda sick, folks.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs (48.5)

Baltimore Ravens

• Start your studs here (Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers)
• The Chiefs have historically shut down Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely could also be back. Just know the floor is pretty low for Andrews if you have to start him.

Kansas City Chiefs

• Xavier Worthy is back, so if you have him, he’s a startable option. Outside of that, nobody else feels good. Not the podcaster Travis Kelce, not Patrick Mahomes. Maybe Tyquan Thornton in DFS? The deep shots are there, the conversions are not. He’s much better than Hollywood Brown, that’s for sure.
• Miss me on the running game. It’s an abomination. Isiah Pacheco, if you must.

Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders (48)

Chicago Bears

• The Bears’ offense showed up with a ton of scoring across most of the guys. D.J. Moore is the new Deebo Samuel with his utilization, but Rome Odunze is the alpha here as a fantasy WR2 and climbing.
• Luther Burden isn’t startable, but his role is (slowly) growing.
• Cole Kmet minus Colston Loveland feels like a good DFS spot here with huge route consolidation over Durham Smythe. This has the air of a two-TD game that we see from Kmet once a season.

Las Vegas Raiders

• The Bears aren’t great and are missing a ton of defensive pieces, so I’m feeling pretty good about Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers.
• Even after a massive blowup game from Tre Tucker, I’m *cowers* somewhat okay with Tucker as a deep flex play and definitely as another DFS tournament play where people won’t roster him because they won’t believe it.
• This also feels like a good Ashton Jeanty spot with so many pieces on the Bears banged up. There will be a big winner here from the Raiders in Week 4, but there are a few players worthy of that in this game.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (47)

Green Bay Packers

• Jordan Love is an extreme trap play this week. He has just *1* game with over 30 pass attempts since 2024 Week 9. Week 2 vs. WAS is just the 4th game of 20+ fantasy points for Love in his last 16 starts, where he didn’t leave the game, dating back to 2023.
• That said, I’m starting Matthew Golden if I need an upside stab, with his routes coming up in each week as now a locked-in starting outside receiver next to Romeo Doubs.
• You’re starting Tucker Kraft, but he’s more touchdown-dependent than anybody wants to admit.
• Josh Jacobs is a begrudgingly safe volume play; a touchdown is on the menu, too.

Dallas Cowboys

• No CeeDee Lamb, I don’t find it too likely that the Cowboys will push Green Bay with their passing game. Still playing George Pickens and Jake Ferguson to consolidate targets, but nothing outside of that.
• If you’re starting Javonte Williams, you’ve got the prayer candles out for a touchdown.

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (45)

New York Jets

• Justin Fields is back and is a worthy start here. Garrett Wilson is a great start, no matter the week. Breece Hall is *fine*. Take the pass volume down a tick for Fields, but obviously, Fields has much more upside than Tyrod Taylor. Taylor runs the more “professional” version of the Jets offense.

Miami Dolphins

• Nothing really changes here: consolidated targets for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, some designed stuff for Malik Washington, nothing for any tight ends.
• De’Von Achane is always in play. Ollie Gordon could be the next Raheem Mostert in terms of being a back that takes some of the lower-value stuff away from Achane so he can rack up receptions and other high-value touches. Gordon is a fringe – and I do mean FRINGE – flex play.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos (44)

Cincinnati Bengals

• The Jake Browning-led Bengals? That business is NOT booming. You’re still starting your studs, as in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but you feel nowhere near confident in either for efficiency or volume.
• Chase Brown is a fine play as a consolidator of team rushing attempts. If the team gets Tahj Brooks and/or Samaje Perine more work after Brown’s 10-carry, 3-yard effort, that’s not good.

Denver Broncos

• Typical Broncos distribution at play here: play Courtland Sutton and fade the other receiving options, including the returning Evan Engram, who is likely to play on Monday Night Football.
• Sit R.J. Harvey, start J.K. Dobbins for the time being, as Harvey isn’t near being featured to the point where you feel good about consistent touches. They’re not there.

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