We’re in Week 5, with a quartet of byes that includes the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers. We have a handful of data points under our belt through the season’s first four weeks, which give us some clarity and insight into what these teams are doing this season. We’re no longer guessing with utilization and using the info at hand to make informed decisions.

In this ongoing series, I will take every game and jot down any fun thoughts he has about each weekly matchup. It’s going to be a bit scattershot, but that’s when the best ideas flow. We got to 3,200 words this week, because there’s a LOT to talk about!

NFL Week 5 Fantasy Football Angles and Leverage

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (36 Over/Under)

Minnesota Vikings

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• The Vikings will have a second week in a row overseas, so that could be an advantage against the Browns from a macro standpoint.
• As a back that doesn’t catch passes that relies on rushing efficiency to rule the day, Jordan Mason is a clear downgrade here against the Browns, as they’ve handled every single rusher that’s crossed their path save for Jahmyr Gibbs.
• Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson are all in play here, but could get bogged down if Wentz predictably struggles against this front. There’s a reason there’s a 36-point over/under.

Cleveland Browns

• This game could go a bunch of different ways with Dillon Gabriel starting. It’s honestly anybody’s guess, as there is a lot of uncertainty.
• The Browns will likely do everything they can to not fully expose Gabriel by giving him some easy button throws and running Quinshon Judkins. The easy throws benefit both tight ends, so David Njoku and Harold Fannin are both solid options, with byes hitting a couple of viable tight ends like Tucker Kraft and Kyle Pitts.
• Jerry Jeudy feels fine, hoping there’s more of a connection than he had with Joe Flacco through four games.
• Isaiah Bond is a fine low-end flex if you’re needy; he’s going to run a ton of routes with Cedric Tillman out.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets (47.5)

Dallas Cowboys

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• George Pickens is a lock, as is Jake Ferguson.
• Jalen Tolbert ran 89% of routes with CeeDee Lamb leaving the game, and then followed that up with 82% routes per dropback last Sunday night against the Packers. He’s worthy of low-end flex consideration in a game that could have some scoring.
• Jaydon Blue will be active for the first time this season as the team is minus Miles Sanders this week, but that’s no reason to downgrade Javonte Williams. His role has been extremely strong, and he has consistently shown positive RYOE numbers in every game this season, in addition to averaging 4.2 yards per contact per attempt. Ride the wave!

New York Jets

• Big over/under total in this game featuring the Jets, which should say something about how bad the Cowboys are vs. how good the Jets are at putting up points. The Justin Fields-to-Garrett Wilson combo will be hugely popular in DFS, and both should be lineup locks in managed leagues.
• Same with Breece Hall, as he’ll likely consolidate the occasional rushing stuff from Braelon Allen now that he’s out for a significant length of time. Isaiah Davis will take some carries but more routes than anything. That does cap Hall’s upside, certainly not enough to downgrade him.

Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles (43.5)

Denver Broncos

• Courtland Sutton will be started heavily in all formats. Still, the Eagles, a smart organization, will likely do what they can to take him away as the only consistent receiving producer in the offense. Temper expectations, but you’re not NOT starting him.
• After Troy Franklin’s strong outing in Week 2 (8-88), he’s kept up the strong routes the past two weeks to limited returns (6-63 combined in last two weeks), so he’s startable, but the Denver offense will always feature a ton of different players for passing-game production. That drops the floor, even if the routes are there.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Of course, you’re starting A.J. Brown. Yes, it’s likely shadow coverage with Patrick Surtain, but come on, it’s Brown. Most of the plays at wide receiver are talent-based ones vs. opportunity-based, and Brown has a ton of both.
• Look for another sub-3.0 YPC Saquon Barkley game against Denver. After a +8 RYOE game against the Cowboys, he’s been well into the negatives against the Chiefs (-14), Rams (-12), and his worst game against the Buccaneers, where he had -21 RYOE and 2.3 YPC. He’s still averaging 15.7 fantasy points per game, despite the inefficiency, thanks to scoring three touchdowns and some increased utilization in the passing game. However, this version of Barkley is clearly NOT the 2024 version.

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (40.5)

Houston Texans

• It’s Nico Collins or nothin’ amongst this sorry group of remaining Texans’ pass-catchers. Consider anybody else, and you’re really playing with fire.
• The Woody Marks play has been buzzy as he’s passed Nick Chubb in production and workload. Expecting the world right away probably isn’t the prudent move, as I don’t think he has the Bucky Irving-type of league-winning upside. However, he will be an important piece for fantasy managers going forward.
• I don’t think Chubb goes directly to zero, but probably caps out at 7-to-9 touches and 35% of snaps. He’s hard to start in that case.

Baltimore Ravens

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• I don’t expect the Ravens to put too much on Cooper Rush’s plate with Lamar Jackson out, so it’s probably going to be a lot of Derrick Henry and using him as much as they can. That leaves Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews as a low-end play as your only realistic options. 

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints (42)

New York Giants

• The Giants will have to make do without Malik Nabers, which makes Wan’Dale Robinson a solid play, Darius Slayton an “eat your vegetables” play, who will run routes.
• My initial “first thought” DFS tournament builds had a Jaxson Dart/Cam Skattebo correlation, but I did go away from it in favor of other games. I’m sure that won’t bite me, but this is one game that could exceed the Vegas groupthink because the Giants could find efficiency, the Saints are spry enough to push vertically, and the combo of both is intriguing.
• Wouldn’t be surprised one bit if the Giants just say “screw it” and build the plane out of Skattebo. He took a ton of volume and provided a bit of spark in a way that helps rein in Dart from making mistakes. The offense felt pretty “Tim Tebow“-ish with quarterback draw stuff and occasional passing. Maybe Skattebo can rack up volume, similar to Willis McGahee, with Skattebo’s added receiving work?

New Orleans Saints

• The Saints have felt much better than the sum of their parts, and that’s thanks to Kellen Moore injecting some pace into this offense with the fastest seconds per snap at just 22.9 seconds this season. That’s helped them get the fifth-most dropbacks in the league. Granted, the efficiency is still a work in progress, but we’re getting Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, and in deeper leagues, Rashid Shaheed into lineups this week.
• Alvin Kamara still looks a bit sluggish due to all the tread on his tires from years and years of work. Start Kamara if you must, but his upside is dwindling by the week with the lack of opportunity in the passing game, as he’s averaged less than four targets per game through four games.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts (47.5)

Las Vegas Raiders

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• Clearly, Brock Bowers is injured and hurt with his knee injury, but he is gutting it out. The upside of a limited Bowers is still better than most tight ends in fantasy. The tight end position has been a crapshoot all season, but you’ve got to start Bowers every week where he’s active, as very few tight ends have his target-earning capabilities.
• We got the Ashton Jeanty spike week game last week, which resulted in three touchdowns, so public sentiment is a lot better after three somewhat lackluster weeks.
• Jakobi Meyers is a solid start as someone who will have to take on the brunt of the passing game responsibilities.
• It’s really hard to trust a guy like Tre Tucker after he almost went right back down to zero (2-13 in Week 4) after his massive 8-145-3 in Week 3. He runs routes. Runs mostly cardio or “all-exercise” routes. It’s who he is, and that’s all.

Indianapolis Colts

• Alec Pierce is out again this week, so Adonai Mitchell gets another shot to redeem himself after hitting both ends of the spectrum in Week 4. He should have had a touchdown, but let go of the ball before crossing the goal line, and then had a brutal hold on what would have been a 53-yard touchdown from Jonathan Taylor.
• Michael Pittman is banged up with a hamstring injury, but isn’t listed on the injury report heading into Sunday. It’s still concerning, though, so it’s possible that more of the middle of the field will be worked in with Tyler Warren and Josh Downs than is typical for the Colts.
• Daniel Jones is obviously in play here in a Week 5 bounce-back spot from last week’s two interceptions.

Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers (44.5)

Miami Dolphins

• This game has the feel of a massive De’Von Achane spot, as he should be DFS chalk against a team that probably has looked like the worst NFL team not named the Tennessee Titans.
• No Tyreek Hill condenses the targets even more, so Achane and Jaylen Waddle are the clear plays here, with Malik Washington as the top secondary play. I wrote this week about some of the outcomes for the Dolphins with the Washington stuff in relation to how they operate as a team.
• Several things could happen here going forward with Miami’s target distribution:
  • Malik Washington takes a much bigger role in the offense with a full-time routes share and varying week-to-week consistency.
  • Darren Waller finds the fountain of youth and becomes the solid third target here after Waddle and Achane, providing a solid avenue of tight end fantasy value.
  • Both Washington and Waller flip-flop as the third option and muddy everything up for both, with Washington remaining an inconsistent option and Waller being a streaming option at tight end. Waddle and Achane absorb most of Hill’s production, and both level up quite a bit, further widening the gap between those two and everybody else in the offense.
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine runs a bunch of routes as the sacrificial ‘X’ receiver, and everybody else stays in their roles, with Waddle and Achane taking slight bumps up in target volume and per-target efficiency.
• I would lean toward the third bullet point being the most likely scenario. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington took a more significant role.

Carolina Panthers

• No Chuba Hubbard, so the DFS chalk will be Rico Dowdle, who is expected to get a ton of work. A ton of flex spots will be graced with his presence, and in the hierarchy of the running back spot starts this week, I have it as:
  1. Rachaad White (TB)
  2. Rico Dowdle (CAR)
  3. [BIG GAP]
  4. Michael Carter (ARI)
• I also wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some Trevor Etienne, either, to work in with Dowdle, as this is how these situations with multiple running backs manifest. Teams that let the genie out of the bottle in instances like this (see: Alvin Kamara, Jordan Mason, Sean Tucker) and then can’t put the genie back in once you see what you have if the outcome is good. The hit rate skews very much towards Etienne not hitting, but that’s the game you play with running backs. Etienne is a look-ahead pickup on fantasy benches as a look-ahead player before Week 6 waivers.
• Start Tetairoa McMillan against this terrible Miami secondary, and honestly, Tommy Tremble isn’t a bad streamer at tight end this week with Ja’Tavion Sanders out. You want to see Tremble run more routes than last week (68%), but that’s why he’s a streamer. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks (44.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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• Of the running back spot starts, Rachaad White is the best start of the week over Rico Dowdle and Michael Carter. That said, Sean Tucker is an add in most leagues as we know what Tucker can do in a spot start (34.2 fantasy points, overall RB1 in Week 6, 2024). I still think that the Bucs will heavily utilize White for this week.
• You’re only considering Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin here as fantasy starts, and with so many other route-runners here, the secondary players (Sterling Shepard and, to an extent, Cade Otton) get bogged down to the point where you can’t really start either. Especially Otton, who has been abysmal with just 10 targets on 87% of routes on the season. That’s a 0.24 yards per route run. NOT GREAT.

Seattle Seahawks

• Nothing new here; start both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, plus Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and in deeper leagues, Cooper Kupp as a floor play. The thesis hasn’t changed too much.
• Perhaps Sam Darnold, too, as a viable streaming fantasy quarterback with three fantasy-relevant quarterbacks out on bye and other injuries? I’m okay with it.

Tennessee Titans vs. Arizona Cardinals (42)

Tennessee Titans

• Not this desperate. You shouldn’t be either.
• Okay, fine, start Tony Pollard, but it’s probably going to be gross.

Arizona Cardinals

• Michael Carter feels like the worst of the spot starts, where you know that Emari Demercado’s third-down role is insulated and Bam Knight could potentially work in as well. There’s also some route upside with Carter’s solid background as a pass-catcher, but the early-down work is going to be very much “less than” with Carter in there unless they go to Knight for a portion of that workload in a Chris Rodriguez-y way.
• Lock in Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison, and Kyler Murray for your fantasy lineups.

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (47)

Washington Commanders

• Washington’s backfield is as fluid as ever, with nobody wanting to take much of the workload, but maybe Dan Quinn wants it that way. Right now, it’s to the point where you can’t start any of the three in most leagues.
• Jayden Daniels returns, and he’s in your lineups going forward. Some worry about the lingering effects of the knee injury is warranted, and we saw last season that Daniels struggled to play with a rib injury in the middle of the season before taking games off to vault the Commanders into the playoffs. To put it another way, you’re starting Daniels, no matter what.
• No Terry McLaurin, so Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz are the starts here.

Los Angeles Chargers

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• The Chargers are easy. Yes, to all three wide receivers in Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Keenan Allen. We’re going to get the McConkey blowup game and wonder why we doubted him in the first place. It’s imminent.
• Omarion Hampton is a top-six running back for the rest of the season based on the offensive environment and the massive opportunity he receives each week with little competition behind him. It’s such an optimal spot. If you have Hampton, you’re loving life but saying one thing I bet you never thought you’d say: “I wish Greg Roman would run the ball more!”

Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals (49.5)

Detroit Lions

• The Lions feel like one big team smash spot where everybody hits. That’s Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta; play the hits, gang.
• I left a separate note for David Montgomery, as he’s playing in his hometown of Cincinnati for the first time in his NFL career. Not only that, but his sister will watch him in person for the first time since a car accident left her paralyzed from the neck down. There’s no doubt that head coach Dan Campbell will want to get Monty plenty of shots to have a big game, as narrative street has been buzzing HARD. DFS smash play, anytime touchdown smash, redraft RB2, it’s all in play for Montgomery in Week 5.

Cincinnati Bengals

• It’s challenging at this point, but Ja’Marr Chase needs to be started. I trust the talent to overcome some of the offensive deficiencies.
• Tee Higgins is a bit tougher, but if the choice is between starting Higgins or Troy Franklin, Higgins is the clear choice. My line for Higgins is barely in the top 30 wide receivers, where I’d start him over Jerry Jeudy and Cooper Kupp, but would bench him for guys like Khalil Shakir, Jordan Addison, and Stefon Diggs.
• Just as a volume play, Chase Brown is fine as a start, but I get the trepidation, and if you have better options, sit him and save yourself the intestinal fortitude you’ll need to click Brown into a lineup.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (49.5)

New England Patriots

• The Patriots are in a game with a 49.5-point over/under. And it doesn’t involve prime Tom Brady. That’s something. I’m not sure if they’re going to hold up their end of the bargain on keeping up that high total, but Drake Maye is going to do his best. He’s been phenomenal, and of course, he’s a must-start.
• Veteran deference rears its ugly head for the Patriots, as Rhamondre Stevenson will likely receive more opportunities than we would like him to. At the expense of TreVeyon Henderson as well. We’ll get the Henderson explosion week, and then it’s off to the races, but it’s going to take time here.
• Stefon Diggs worked his way back to fantasy starting lineups with his 6-101 in Week 4 on a big jump up to 82% of routes from 70, 58, and 53% of routes per dropback the last three weeks. Looking at the rest of the wide receivers, he looks pretty damn good compared to the junk they run out in most weeks.
• Hunter Henry is the safe, boring option, with a lower floor than you might think. If the Bills really put the clamps down like they can at home, it’s going to just be a total wipeout for the Patriots.

Buffalo Bills

• The only startable pass-catcher here is Khalil Shakir, just like it ended up last season. He’s the only player with a defined role and (somewhat) bankable floor as an extension of the run game for Buffalo.
• Dalton Kincaid caught another touchdown in Week 4, but with his lack of route volume (no more than 63% routes in a game this season), you can’t start him.
• The other fantasy starts (Josh Allen, James Cook) should be very apparent. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (46.5)

Kansas City Chiefs

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• Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce (I guess) are the starts here, but keep tabs on Brashard Smith, who is the lone running back on this roster who has some juice in the Jerick McKinnon role that’s been very successful for the Chiefs in previous seasons. You can’t start the others; save yourself the headache.
• The intent for the Worthy stuff was immediately apparent and is a bullish sign for him going forward. When the Chiefs do add Rashee Rice to the mix? It’s going to be even more transformative.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Travis Hunter only played nine defensive snaps last week, and that’s probably not going to be the norm. The Jaguars really need him in the passing game, but they need ANYBODY to step up in a major way.
• (No, that doesn’t mean you, Parker Washington.)
• The Brian Thomas stuff feels imminent, as he looked a bit better in Week 4 than in previous weeks. Perhaps it’s an adjustment with Liam Coen and some other concepts? Or Trevor Lawrence himself? Patience is running a little thin as an end-of-the-first-round player, but you still have to stay the course.
• Brenton Strange has been steady at the very least, and with some tight end byes, he works his way into the back end of the startable range.

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