Tell your friends (just not your leaguemates until next week)
by Optimus Staff
(Click the play button above for the full experience)
*X files music plays in the distance*
Have you ever wondered if there is really an NFL script? What does Vegas know that we don’t know? Does the league have a ‘make sure the Cowboys stay relevant’ department? Who knows. BUT….
Now that I have your attention, let me tell you a little bit of what you will find as you read on. The goal of this article is not to make you panic. We want to help ease your path to victory.
Script or no script, we have data. While there may be some huge conspiracy out there, we are here to try our best to help you navigate it. Have you been bamboozled into thinking you are safe with Courtland Sutton as your WR1? Are you nervous about someone like Drake Maye letting you down when it matters most?
We may not have all of the answers, but we have compiled the data to help you work through these questions and potentially seek out trades before your deadline that will help propel you to the championship. Let’s get into Part 1 of this two-part series, where we break down QBs and WRs. Part 2 will cover RBs and TEs.
The Schedule Conspiracy: Who’s Got the Secret Path to the Championship (Part 1)
Check out our Premium Tools – Use the promo code “THANKSOPTIMUS” for a two-week free trial
How This Works
You’ve made it this far! Congratulations. Now, before we truly dive in, we want to make this accessible for everyone. We here at Optimus may be huge data nerds (sorry, not sorry), but that doesn’t mean you are or have to be.
Let’s take a minute to break down the following charts column by column:
Columns A and B should be pretty self-explanatory; they provide the team and player(s) on that team at a given position.
Column C tells you how many PPR points that player scored over the past 6 games (Weeks 5-10 for players without a bye, and Weeks 4-10 if a player had a bye during that span).
Easy enough, right?
Column D is where things get a bit more complicated. This column tells you how many normalized PPR points the player “scored” over that same 6-game window (Weeks 5-10 for players without a bye, and Weeks 4-10 if a player had a bye during that span). It is more impressive if a player scores “average” against a hard defense than if they score “average” against an easy defense. So, Column D takes the number from Column C and compares it (“schedule adjusts” it) against the defenses that player faced. Some will be higher, some will be lower. Lower means that player faced an easier schedule, higher means they faced a tougher schedule.
Columns E, G, and I show you the normalized defensive ranks of the given player’s opponents for the playoff weeks. Just as we “schedule adjusted” the player’s output earlier, this normalization essentially does the same thing, but for defenses. If a defense faced Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle in that 6-game span, that has been taken into consideration when determining their “rank.”
Still with me? We are almost there.
Columns F, H, and J show the normalized points allowed to the POSITION by that defense in the same 6-game span. Now, I capitalized that word on purpose. Teams have multiple receivers, and some teams use multiple RBs and TEs. That number shows how much the entire position scored. For example, it would include both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs‘ points, not just one of them.
Column K. Most of us are familiar with the grading system, right? A is good, B is not bad, C is average, D is not good, and F is the worst. I could leave it at that, but for any fellow data people, there is a bit more information. These grades are based on standard deviation. Grades above/below C are statistically significant in either direction.
LASTLY, Column L shows you the average normalized (think “schedule adjusted”) points of the three playoff weeks (Columns F, H, and J). To make it as simple as possible, the higher the number, the better the schedule.
Phew. That was a lot, but now we can get into the meat and potatoes of why you’re really here.
Quarterbacks:
Best Schedules:
“Unusual Suspects”: Justin Fields
It’s impossible to feel good about starting Justin Fields in the fantasy playoffs. Through ten weeks, he’s had four different games where he attempted fewer than 20 passes, completing fewer than 10 in each. He was benched mid-game one week, and HC Aaron Glenn tried to bench him again, but couldn’t due to injury. Not exactly a picture that inspires confidence.
And…
Whoa baby, that playoff schedule! With the 3rd-easiest playoff schedule of any QB, Fields has to be a consideration. That he’s dropped 20+ point performances against Pittsburgh, Miami, Dallas, and Cincinnati is enough reason to believe he’s capable against the bad defenses. Jacksonville, New Orleans, and New England definitely qualify for that category. Justin Fields, League Winner.
If you’re strong enough.
“Improbable”: Dak Prescott + Tua Tagovailoa
Ok, Dak Prescott likely doesn’t strike you as improbable. With an opponent average of 15.4 points allowed per game to QBs, Dak’s playoff schedule is tied for 2nd friendliest for all QBs. Even if you don’t do anything else, that’s pretty darn good! If only it weren’t for those unfriendly Chargers in Week 16.
What if…
We combined him with Tua Tagovailoa? Ok, now that is improbable! After all, Tua has failed to break 15 fantasy points six times, even finishing in negatives once! However, Tua is facing Cincinnati in Week 16, the 6th most generous normalized defense for QBs. Now this is getting interesting.
Let’s take it a step further and put some math to it. What if we took the Chargers’ 9.2 points allowed per game and swapped it with Cincinnati’s 14.2? Suddenly, our combination of Prescott/Tagovailoa has an average of 17.1 – by far the top spot! While Tua is likely rostered if you play in a Superflex or 2QB league, there’s a good chance he’s available in 1QB leagues.
“The Truth”: Caleb Williams
I am, in my heart of hearts, a numbers person. When I saw Caleb Williams’ Strength of Schedule Adjusted Score (SOS Adj. Score), I knew I was going to have to play with it. So here are some numbers. In terms of points per game, this way it doesn’t matter if someone has played more/fewer games than others – Williams was QB10 from Weeks 5 – 10 with 20.0 fantasy points/game. He’s second among all QBs with a +15.7 difference between his 6-game PPR score and his SOS Adj. Score. Meaning if he played a neutral schedule, he would have scored about 2.5 points per game more.
What does it all mean?
Adding three points/game to Caleb Williams’ average would put him at QB5 for the Week 5-10 period. This is significant because Williams’ playoff schedule rates as a C, which means it falls within the range of “Average.” Bear in mind, “Average” is a big improvement for Williams! That would be an expected +3 points in every game.
If you’re looking to trade for a QB to win your league and not break the bank, Caleb Williams is your target.
Medium Schedule:
“Alpha”: Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford is on what we very-professional analysts call a “heater.” 20 passing TDs over a six-game span will do that for you. In addition, Stafford checks in with a position leading +21.5 difference between his 6-game PPR score and his SOS Adj. Score. So even though he’s done really well, he would have done even better against more average defenses.
An irresistible force…
If you take one thing from this section, take this: Don’t be scared off by Stafford’s middling schedule. His extreme 6-game/SOS Adj. difference tells us the story that it doesn’t matter how difficult the matchup, Stafford is up to the task. I suppose having Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, and a mind like Sean McVay behind you can do that for you.
Keep an eye on the Stafford manager in your league in case they’re spooked by the matchups and willing to sell. He wouldn’t be my first priority, but he’s better than most.
Worst Schedules:
“Musings of a Cigarette Smoking Man”: Drake Maye
Have you ever seen Drake Maye play? The guy makes play after play despite being constantly crushed. I’d need a cigarette after all that, too, and I don’t even smoke. While Maye has been a revelation this year in fantasy, solidifying himself among the top QB options and, if not, just below, his playoff schedule leaves plenty to be desired.
The conundrum…
Maye has played a very easy schedule over the past six weeks. That’s not his fault, and he’s performed well against them. But having the 2nd-worst schedule for QBs is a tough row to hoe. If you have to roll him out because he’s your best option, you do what you have to do. But if there’s one QB I’d try to ship out to better my chances at a championship, it’s Drake Maye.
“Jump the Shark”: Josh Allen
Fun fact – I made an error when first generating this chart and missed out on including QB rushing stats. It was Josh Allen’s low total that caught my attention. In fact, 41.3% of Allen’s fantasy points in his 6-game sample come from the ground. That’s, umm, a lot. The days of Allen lighting it up through the air are gone. At least for 2025.
But ironically, right?
You’re probably not benching Allen no matter what. He’s Josh Freaking Allen, after all. But that schedule is scary, man. That Allen is essentially even with his SOS Adj. doesn’t exactly inspire an abundance of faith. Nor does the fact that Josh’s passing stats are middling at best. The silver lining is the defenses he’s facing are effective at facing QBs – not Josh “Alien.”
And as we all know, when aliens are involved, anything is possible.
Wide Receivers:
Best Schedules:
“Number Nine. Number Nine” Justin Jefferson (and Jordan Addison)
Being a Justin Jefferson manager has not been particularly fun this season. J.J. McCarthy has not been the revelation the Vikings’ front office had hoped for, leaving the Minnesota pass catchers missing the days of Sam Darnold. Truthfully, Jefferson has been fine, averaging 14.7 PPR points per week. But we weren’t expecting “fine” during draft season when we all took him in the first round ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
There is good news ahead for those who have stuck it out with Jefferson, and to an extent, Jordan Addison. The Vikings face a three-pack of vulnerable pass defenses during the fantasy playoffs. With the Cowboys, Giants, and Lions on the menu, Jefferson and Addison have the opportunity to provide those boom performances you’ve come to expect from these players.
Right now, there is a small window for managers looking for an advantage to go out and check in with the Jeferrson/Addison owner. They may be disappointed with the current results and be looking to move on, giving you the chance to acquire great players with a strong fantasy schedule to end the season.
“D.J. Phone Rome” Rome Odunze (and D.J. Moore)
The Chicago offense is a difficult group to trust in fantasy. The wide receiver room, in particular, has been a tough one to nail down. Rome Odunze kicked off the year hot, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the Bears’ first four games. After the bye, he has failed to surpass 6 PPR points on three separate occasions over the last five games. Not ideal!
On the other hand, there’s D.J. Moore, who has been largely unplayable outside of his baffling two-touchdown game (don’t forget he threw one – thanks Ben Johnson!). Moore represents a player who has the opportunity to be a producer for your fantasy team, but only when you aren’t looking. It’s been a frustrating ride between these two players, but there is some good news on the horizon.
The Bears have a favorable end-of-year schedule that can change everyone’s perception of this crew. While the Bears do have to battle through a stingy Cleveland defense in Week 15, they will be rewarded with a pair of increasingly easier matchups against Green Bay and San Francisco. D.J. Moore should be an easier asset to acquire. Odunze, not so much. However, it is worth knocking on their managers’ door to see where they value the second-year receiver out of Washington.
Chicago, as an offense, has appeared to be on the same page as the team has won six of their last seven games. They’ll need to continue to improve as they fight for their first division title since 2018. If they want to be the best, their wide receivers need to come through.
“Unbreakable” Jauan Jennings
Just by typing his name, I think Jauan Jennings has broken another rib. But that won’t stop San Francisco’s de facto WR1 from making the most of his opportunity. Jennings seems like he’s healthy for what feels like the first time this season, and has registered back-to-back double-digit scoring performances. He’s heating up at just the right time, too, as his schedule looks delightfully kind to receivers from here on out.
Though San Francisco’s bye comes at an unfortunate time for fantasy managers (Week 14, the last week of the regular fantasy season), those who make the playoffs are rewarded with a potentially league-winning schedule. The 49ers face off against the Tennessee Titans (allowing 215 pass yards/game), the Indianapolis Colts (235 pass yards/game) and the Chicago Bears (240 pass yards/game). Not only are these weaker passing defenses, but these are teams (except the Titans) with good offenses that will force San Francisco to throw to stay in the game. This is a fantastic combination to produce a boom game for a wide receiver.
The only concern would be the return of Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall. Jennings is already competing for targets alongside George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey; the last thing he needs is more wide receivers stealing opportunities. Fingers crossed that Jennings can run away with the lead role in the next few weeks.
Worst Schedules:
“Deserted in the Desert” Marvin Harrison
This is probably low-hanging fruit as Marvin Harrison is going to be missing time thanks to an appendicitis injury – but it’s important to mention his awful fantasy playoff schedule anyway.
The Cardinals’ offense has found new life with Jacoby Brissett under center. This has been great news for fantasy players, but this hasn’t necessarily resulted in many wins for the real football organization. MHJ has been a big winner thanks to the QB change, though the good times may be coming to an early end.
MHJ and the Cardinals have to face the vaunted Houston defense in the opening round of the playoffs. This matchup alone is enough to turn heel and find another playable option outside of Harrison. If your team does survive that, and MHJ is still on your roster, you have to hope again that he can produce against a coin-flippy Atlanta defense. The vibes aren’t awesome surrounding Marv.
The unspoken concern that folks may be ignoring is the fear of Brissett turning into a pumpkin. We’ve seen it time and time again with backups that have seemingly elevated the offense. As teams see more of Brissett, there is certainly a chance they catch on to tendencies and make the Arizona passing attack weaker. Try to find another startable option now to get ready for a playoff run without relying on MHJ.
“Mile High Mystery” Courtland Sutton
No one can comprehend the enigma that is the Denver Broncos. Sean Payton is playing some sort of game, not sure if it’s chess or checkers, that none of us can really follow. Maybe he’s just playing a new version of Balatro, where he’s amassing a strange collection of Jokers that don’t necessarily do anything for Bo Nix.
Despite being 8-2, the Broncos are 17th in points per game. Dead in the middle of the league. This isn’t something that usually happens with a team that’s sitting as the second seed in the AFC. This middling scoring is felt the most by fantasy managers rostering Courtland Sutton, the alleged WR1 for this offense.
Sutton is currently the WR16 in fantasy, but it certainly feels much worse than that. Over the past three weeks, he has failed to score over 11 PPR points. In fact, he’s done that just once in the past five weeks. This doesn’t bode well for Denver’s top receiver as they prepare to face Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Kansas City at the end of the season. KC, in particular, is a dangerous foe to face during the fantasy championship, as they are 4th in the league in points allowed per game (17.7, just behind Denver at 17.3). If you can, shop around to see if league mates are interested in a potential Sutton bounce back. You could find yourself moving on from a potential dud during the most crucial portion of the fantasy year.
“The Pitts” D.K. Metcalf
There was a time when I was pretty bullish on Metcalf’s arrival in Pittsburgh. It seemed like a solid fit, where an offense that clearly needed a true WR1 landed a player who is ready to demand the bulk of the targets. It’s disappointing to see how this marriage ended up being less fireworks and more frustration. The honeymoon was fun, with Metcalf exploding for 120 yards and a touchdown overseas. After the bye, however, the union of Aaron Rodgers and Metcalf has seemed to take a turn for the worse. It could be a by-product of a bad schedule. However, if that’s the case, then fantasy managers will want to get off this ride, as the playoff schedule will not be kind to the Steelers.
The Steelers face Miami, Detroit, and Cleveland to finish out the fantasy year. Unfortunately, receivers have not seen success against these defenses for one reason or another. In the case of Miami, teams have found that running the ball is all they need to do. In the case of Cleveland, their pass rush is so potent that teams struggle to just get the ball out in time. Old Man Rodgers will have a tough time in the pocket if he can’t dodge Myles Garrett. Metcalf can’t catch the ball if Rodgers is on his backside.
We may be in “trade after his next big game” territory for Metcalf, because there is uncertainty if any of those games will happen again this season.
Now What?
That was a lot to take in, but preparation is what separates contenders from champions. Let the information sink in, trust your instincts, and move forward with purpose. The truth might be out there, but the path to the championship is right in front of you.
Part 2 will take us even deeper into the mystery, so stay tuned. If you have specific questions, you know where to reach us.
Until next time, Optimus signing off.
For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!
(Click the play button above for the full experience)
*X files music plays in the distance*
Have you ever wondered if there is really an NFL script? What does Vegas know that we don’t know? Does the league have a ‘make sure the Cowboys stay relevant’ department? Who knows. BUT….
Now that I have your attention, let me tell you a little bit of what you will find as you read on. The goal of this article is not to make you panic. We want to help ease your path to victory.
Script or no script, we have data. While there may be some huge conspiracy out there, we are here to try our best to help you navigate it. Have you been bamboozled into thinking you are safe with Courtland Sutton as your WR1? Are you nervous about someone like Drake Maye letting you down when it matters most?
We may not have all of the answers, but we have compiled the data to help you work through these questions and potentially seek out trades before your deadline that will help propel you to the championship. Let’s get into Part 1 of this two-part series, where we break down QBs and WRs. Part 2 will cover RBs and TEs.
The Schedule Conspiracy: Who’s Got the Secret Path to the Championship (Part 1)
Check out our Premium Tools – Use the promo code “THANKSOPTIMUS” for a two-week free trial
How This Works
You’ve made it this far! Congratulations. Now, before we truly dive in, we want to make this accessible for everyone. We here at Optimus may be huge data nerds (sorry, not sorry), but that doesn’t mean you are or have to be.
Let’s take a minute to break down the following charts column by column:
Columns A and B should be pretty self-explanatory; they provide the team and player(s) on that team at a given position.
Column C tells you how many PPR points that player scored over the past 6 games (Weeks 5-10 for players without a bye, and Weeks 4-10 if a player had a bye during that span).
Easy enough, right?
Column D is where things get a bit more complicated. This column tells you how many normalized PPR points the player “scored” over that same 6-game window (Weeks 5-10 for players without a bye, and Weeks 4-10 if a player had a bye during that span). It is more impressive if a player scores “average” against a hard defense than if they score “average” against an easy defense. So, Column D takes the number from Column C and compares it (“schedule adjusts” it) against the defenses that player faced. Some will be higher, some will be lower. Lower means that player faced an easier schedule, higher means they faced a tougher schedule.
Columns E, G, and I show you the normalized defensive ranks of the given player’s opponents for the playoff weeks. Just as we “schedule adjusted” the player’s output earlier, this normalization essentially does the same thing, but for defenses. If a defense faced Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle in that 6-game span, that has been taken into consideration when determining their “rank.”
Still with me? We are almost there.
Columns F, H, and J show the normalized points allowed to the POSITION by that defense in the same 6-game span. Now, I capitalized that word on purpose. Teams have multiple receivers, and some teams use multiple RBs and TEs. That number shows how much the entire position scored. For example, it would include both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs‘ points, not just one of them.
Column K. Most of us are familiar with the grading system, right? A is good, B is not bad, C is average, D is not good, and F is the worst. I could leave it at that, but for any fellow data people, there is a bit more information. These grades are based on standard deviation. Grades above/below C are statistically significant in either direction.
LASTLY, Column L shows you the average normalized (think “schedule adjusted”) points of the three playoff weeks (Columns F, H, and J). To make it as simple as possible, the higher the number, the better the schedule.
Phew. That was a lot, but now we can get into the meat and potatoes of why you’re really here.
Quarterbacks:
Best Schedules:
“Unusual Suspects”: Justin Fields
It’s impossible to feel good about starting Justin Fields in the fantasy playoffs. Through ten weeks, he’s had four different games where he attempted fewer than 20 passes, completing fewer than 10 in each. He was benched mid-game one week, and HC Aaron Glenn tried to bench him again, but couldn’t due to injury. Not exactly a picture that inspires confidence.
And…
Whoa baby, that playoff schedule! With the 3rd-easiest playoff schedule of any QB, Fields has to be a consideration. That he’s dropped 20+ point performances against Pittsburgh, Miami, Dallas, and Cincinnati is enough reason to believe he’s capable against the bad defenses. Jacksonville, New Orleans, and New England definitely qualify for that category. Justin Fields, League Winner.
If you’re strong enough.
“Improbable”: Dak Prescott + Tua Tagovailoa
Ok, Dak Prescott likely doesn’t strike you as improbable. With an opponent average of 15.4 points allowed per game to QBs, Dak’s playoff schedule is tied for 2nd friendliest for all QBs. Even if you don’t do anything else, that’s pretty darn good! If only it weren’t for those unfriendly Chargers in Week 16.
What if…
We combined him with Tua Tagovailoa? Ok, now that is improbable! After all, Tua has failed to break 15 fantasy points six times, even finishing in negatives once! However, Tua is facing Cincinnati in Week 16, the 6th most generous normalized defense for QBs. Now this is getting interesting.
Let’s take it a step further and put some math to it. What if we took the Chargers’ 9.2 points allowed per game and swapped it with Cincinnati’s 14.2? Suddenly, our combination of Prescott/Tagovailoa has an average of 17.1 – by far the top spot! While Tua is likely rostered if you play in a Superflex or 2QB league, there’s a good chance he’s available in 1QB leagues.
“The Truth”: Caleb Williams
I am, in my heart of hearts, a numbers person. When I saw Caleb Williams’ Strength of Schedule Adjusted Score (SOS Adj. Score), I knew I was going to have to play with it. So here are some numbers. In terms of points per game, this way it doesn’t matter if someone has played more/fewer games than others – Williams was QB10 from Weeks 5 – 10 with 20.0 fantasy points/game. He’s second among all QBs with a +15.7 difference between his 6-game PPR score and his SOS Adj. Score. Meaning if he played a neutral schedule, he would have scored about 2.5 points per game more.
What does it all mean?
Adding three points/game to Caleb Williams’ average would put him at QB5 for the Week 5-10 period. This is significant because Williams’ playoff schedule rates as a C, which means it falls within the range of “Average.” Bear in mind, “Average” is a big improvement for Williams! That would be an expected +3 points in every game.
If you’re looking to trade for a QB to win your league and not break the bank, Caleb Williams is your target.
Medium Schedule:
“Alpha”: Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford is on what we very-professional analysts call a “heater.” 20 passing TDs over a six-game span will do that for you. In addition, Stafford checks in with a position leading +21.5 difference between his 6-game PPR score and his SOS Adj. Score. So even though he’s done really well, he would have done even better against more average defenses.
An irresistible force…
If you take one thing from this section, take this: Don’t be scared off by Stafford’s middling schedule. His extreme 6-game/SOS Adj. difference tells us the story that it doesn’t matter how difficult the matchup, Stafford is up to the task. I suppose having Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, and a mind like Sean McVay behind you can do that for you.
Keep an eye on the Stafford manager in your league in case they’re spooked by the matchups and willing to sell. He wouldn’t be my first priority, but he’s better than most.
Worst Schedules:
“Musings of a Cigarette Smoking Man”: Drake Maye
Have you ever seen Drake Maye play? The guy makes play after play despite being constantly crushed. I’d need a cigarette after all that, too, and I don’t even smoke. While Maye has been a revelation this year in fantasy, solidifying himself among the top QB options and, if not, just below, his playoff schedule leaves plenty to be desired.
The conundrum…
Maye has played a very easy schedule over the past six weeks. That’s not his fault, and he’s performed well against them. But having the 2nd-worst schedule for QBs is a tough row to hoe. If you have to roll him out because he’s your best option, you do what you have to do. But if there’s one QB I’d try to ship out to better my chances at a championship, it’s Drake Maye.
“Jump the Shark”: Josh Allen
Fun fact – I made an error when first generating this chart and missed out on including QB rushing stats. It was Josh Allen’s low total that caught my attention. In fact, 41.3% of Allen’s fantasy points in his 6-game sample come from the ground. That’s, umm, a lot. The days of Allen lighting it up through the air are gone. At least for 2025.
But ironically, right?
You’re probably not benching Allen no matter what. He’s Josh Freaking Allen, after all. But that schedule is scary, man. That Allen is essentially even with his SOS Adj. doesn’t exactly inspire an abundance of faith. Nor does the fact that Josh’s passing stats are middling at best. The silver lining is the defenses he’s facing are effective at facing QBs – not Josh “Alien.”
And as we all know, when aliens are involved, anything is possible.
Wide Receivers:
Best Schedules:
“Number Nine. Number Nine” Justin Jefferson (and Jordan Addison)
Being a Justin Jefferson manager has not been particularly fun this season. J.J. McCarthy has not been the revelation the Vikings’ front office had hoped for, leaving the Minnesota pass catchers missing the days of Sam Darnold. Truthfully, Jefferson has been fine, averaging 14.7 PPR points per week. But we weren’t expecting “fine” during draft season when we all took him in the first round ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
There is good news ahead for those who have stuck it out with Jefferson, and to an extent, Jordan Addison. The Vikings face a three-pack of vulnerable pass defenses during the fantasy playoffs. With the Cowboys, Giants, and Lions on the menu, Jefferson and Addison have the opportunity to provide those boom performances you’ve come to expect from these players.
Right now, there is a small window for managers looking for an advantage to go out and check in with the Jeferrson/Addison owner. They may be disappointed with the current results and be looking to move on, giving you the chance to acquire great players with a strong fantasy schedule to end the season.
“D.J. Phone Rome” Rome Odunze (and D.J. Moore)
The Chicago offense is a difficult group to trust in fantasy. The wide receiver room, in particular, has been a tough one to nail down. Rome Odunze kicked off the year hot, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the Bears’ first four games. After the bye, he has failed to surpass 6 PPR points on three separate occasions over the last five games. Not ideal!
On the other hand, there’s D.J. Moore, who has been largely unplayable outside of his baffling two-touchdown game (don’t forget he threw one – thanks Ben Johnson!). Moore represents a player who has the opportunity to be a producer for your fantasy team, but only when you aren’t looking. It’s been a frustrating ride between these two players, but there is some good news on the horizon.
The Bears have a favorable end-of-year schedule that can change everyone’s perception of this crew. While the Bears do have to battle through a stingy Cleveland defense in Week 15, they will be rewarded with a pair of increasingly easier matchups against Green Bay and San Francisco. D.J. Moore should be an easier asset to acquire. Odunze, not so much. However, it is worth knocking on their managers’ door to see where they value the second-year receiver out of Washington.
Chicago, as an offense, has appeared to be on the same page as the team has won six of their last seven games. They’ll need to continue to improve as they fight for their first division title since 2018. If they want to be the best, their wide receivers need to come through.
“Unbreakable” Jauan Jennings
Just by typing his name, I think Jauan Jennings has broken another rib. But that won’t stop San Francisco’s de facto WR1 from making the most of his opportunity. Jennings seems like he’s healthy for what feels like the first time this season, and has registered back-to-back double-digit scoring performances. He’s heating up at just the right time, too, as his schedule looks delightfully kind to receivers from here on out.
Though San Francisco’s bye comes at an unfortunate time for fantasy managers (Week 14, the last week of the regular fantasy season), those who make the playoffs are rewarded with a potentially league-winning schedule. The 49ers face off against the Tennessee Titans (allowing 215 pass yards/game), the Indianapolis Colts (235 pass yards/game) and the Chicago Bears (240 pass yards/game). Not only are these weaker passing defenses, but these are teams (except the Titans) with good offenses that will force San Francisco to throw to stay in the game. This is a fantastic combination to produce a boom game for a wide receiver.
The only concern would be the return of Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall. Jennings is already competing for targets alongside George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey; the last thing he needs is more wide receivers stealing opportunities. Fingers crossed that Jennings can run away with the lead role in the next few weeks.
Worst Schedules:
“Deserted in the Desert” Marvin Harrison
This is probably low-hanging fruit as Marvin Harrison is going to be missing time thanks to an appendicitis injury – but it’s important to mention his awful fantasy playoff schedule anyway.
The Cardinals’ offense has found new life with Jacoby Brissett under center. This has been great news for fantasy players, but this hasn’t necessarily resulted in many wins for the real football organization. MHJ has been a big winner thanks to the QB change, though the good times may be coming to an early end.
MHJ and the Cardinals have to face the vaunted Houston defense in the opening round of the playoffs. This matchup alone is enough to turn heel and find another playable option outside of Harrison. If your team does survive that, and MHJ is still on your roster, you have to hope again that he can produce against a coin-flippy Atlanta defense. The vibes aren’t awesome surrounding Marv.
The unspoken concern that folks may be ignoring is the fear of Brissett turning into a pumpkin. We’ve seen it time and time again with backups that have seemingly elevated the offense. As teams see more of Brissett, there is certainly a chance they catch on to tendencies and make the Arizona passing attack weaker. Try to find another startable option now to get ready for a playoff run without relying on MHJ.
“Mile High Mystery” Courtland Sutton
No one can comprehend the enigma that is the Denver Broncos. Sean Payton is playing some sort of game, not sure if it’s chess or checkers, that none of us can really follow. Maybe he’s just playing a new version of Balatro, where he’s amassing a strange collection of Jokers that don’t necessarily do anything for Bo Nix.
Despite being 8-2, the Broncos are 17th in points per game. Dead in the middle of the league. This isn’t something that usually happens with a team that’s sitting as the second seed in the AFC. This middling scoring is felt the most by fantasy managers rostering Courtland Sutton, the alleged WR1 for this offense.
Sutton is currently the WR16 in fantasy, but it certainly feels much worse than that. Over the past three weeks, he has failed to score over 11 PPR points. In fact, he’s done that just once in the past five weeks. This doesn’t bode well for Denver’s top receiver as they prepare to face Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Kansas City at the end of the season. KC, in particular, is a dangerous foe to face during the fantasy championship, as they are 4th in the league in points allowed per game (17.7, just behind Denver at 17.3). If you can, shop around to see if league mates are interested in a potential Sutton bounce back. You could find yourself moving on from a potential dud during the most crucial portion of the fantasy year.
“The Pitts” D.K. Metcalf
There was a time when I was pretty bullish on Metcalf’s arrival in Pittsburgh. It seemed like a solid fit, where an offense that clearly needed a true WR1 landed a player who is ready to demand the bulk of the targets. It’s disappointing to see how this marriage ended up being less fireworks and more frustration. The honeymoon was fun, with Metcalf exploding for 120 yards and a touchdown overseas. After the bye, however, the union of Aaron Rodgers and Metcalf has seemed to take a turn for the worse. It could be a by-product of a bad schedule. However, if that’s the case, then fantasy managers will want to get off this ride, as the playoff schedule will not be kind to the Steelers.
The Steelers face Miami, Detroit, and Cleveland to finish out the fantasy year. Unfortunately, receivers have not seen success against these defenses for one reason or another. In the case of Miami, teams have found that running the ball is all they need to do. In the case of Cleveland, their pass rush is so potent that teams struggle to just get the ball out in time. Old Man Rodgers will have a tough time in the pocket if he can’t dodge Myles Garrett. Metcalf can’t catch the ball if Rodgers is on his backside.
We may be in “trade after his next big game” territory for Metcalf, because there is uncertainty if any of those games will happen again this season.
Now What?
That was a lot to take in, but preparation is what separates contenders from champions. Let the information sink in, trust your instincts, and move forward with purpose. The truth might be out there, but the path to the championship is right in front of you.
Part 2 will take us even deeper into the mystery, so stay tuned. If you have specific questions, you know where to reach us.
Until next time, Optimus signing off.
For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!
(Click the play button above for the full experience)
*X files music plays in the distance*
Have you ever wondered if there is really an NFL script? What does Vegas know that we don’t know? Does the league have a ‘make sure the Cowboys stay relevant’ department? Who knows. BUT….
Now that I have your attention, let me tell you a little bit of what you will find as you read on. The goal of this article is not to make you panic. We want to help ease your path to victory.
Script or no script, we have data. While there may be some huge conspiracy out there, we are here to try our best to help you navigate it. Have you been bamboozled into thinking you are safe with Courtland Sutton as your WR1? Are you nervous about someone like Drake Maye letting you down when it matters most?
We may not have all of the answers, but we have compiled the data to help you work through these questions and potentially seek out trades before your deadline that will help propel you to the championship. Let’s get into Part 1 of this two-part series, where we break down QBs and WRs. Part 2 will cover RBs and TEs.
The Schedule Conspiracy: Who’s Got the Secret Path to the Championship (Part 1)
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How This Works
You’ve made it this far! Congratulations. Now, before we truly dive in, we want to make this accessible for everyone. We here at Optimus may be huge data nerds (sorry, not sorry), but that doesn’t mean you are or have to be.
Let’s take a minute to break down the following charts column by column:
Columns A and B should be pretty self-explanatory; they provide the team and player(s) on that team at a given position.
Column C tells you how many PPR points that player scored over the past 6 games (Weeks 5-10 for players without a bye, and Weeks 4-10 if a player had a bye during that span).
Easy enough, right?
Column D is where things get a bit more complicated. This column tells you how many normalized PPR points the player “scored” over that same 6-game window (Weeks 5-10 for players without a bye, and Weeks 4-10 if a player had a bye during that span). It is more impressive if a player scores “average” against a hard defense than if they score “average” against an easy defense. So, Column D takes the number from Column C and compares it (“schedule adjusts” it) against the defenses that player faced. Some will be higher, some will be lower. Lower means that player faced an easier schedule, higher means they faced a tougher schedule.
Columns E, G, and I show you the normalized defensive ranks of the given player’s opponents for the playoff weeks. Just as we “schedule adjusted” the player’s output earlier, this normalization essentially does the same thing, but for defenses. If a defense faced Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle in that 6-game span, that has been taken into consideration when determining their “rank.”
Still with me? We are almost there.
Columns F, H, and J show the normalized points allowed to the POSITION by that defense in the same 6-game span. Now, I capitalized that word on purpose. Teams have multiple receivers, and some teams use multiple RBs and TEs. That number shows how much the entire position scored. For example, it would include both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs‘ points, not just one of them.
Column K. Most of us are familiar with the grading system, right? A is good, B is not bad, C is average, D is not good, and F is the worst. I could leave it at that, but for any fellow data people, there is a bit more information. These grades are based on standard deviation. Grades above/below C are statistically significant in either direction.
LASTLY, Column L shows you the average normalized (think “schedule adjusted”) points of the three playoff weeks (Columns F, H, and J). To make it as simple as possible, the higher the number, the better the schedule.
Phew. That was a lot, but now we can get into the meat and potatoes of why you’re really here.
Quarterbacks:
Best Schedules:
“Unusual Suspects”: Justin Fields
It’s impossible to feel good about starting Justin Fields in the fantasy playoffs. Through ten weeks, he’s had four different games where he attempted fewer than 20 passes, completing fewer than 10 in each. He was benched mid-game one week, and HC Aaron Glenn tried to bench him again, but couldn’t due to injury. Not exactly a picture that inspires confidence.
And…
Whoa baby, that playoff schedule! With the 3rd-easiest playoff schedule of any QB, Fields has to be a consideration. That he’s dropped 20+ point performances against Pittsburgh, Miami, Dallas, and Cincinnati is enough reason to believe he’s capable against the bad defenses. Jacksonville, New Orleans, and New England definitely qualify for that category. Justin Fields, League Winner.
If you’re strong enough.
“Improbable”: Dak Prescott + Tua Tagovailoa
Ok, Dak Prescott likely doesn’t strike you as improbable. With an opponent average of 15.4 points allowed per game to QBs, Dak’s playoff schedule is tied for 2nd friendliest for all QBs. Even if you don’t do anything else, that’s pretty darn good! If only it weren’t for those unfriendly Chargers in Week 16.
What if…
We combined him with Tua Tagovailoa? Ok, now that is improbable! After all, Tua has failed to break 15 fantasy points six times, even finishing in negatives once! However, Tua is facing Cincinnati in Week 16, the 6th most generous normalized defense for QBs. Now this is getting interesting.
Let’s take it a step further and put some math to it. What if we took the Chargers’ 9.2 points allowed per game and swapped it with Cincinnati’s 14.2? Suddenly, our combination of Prescott/Tagovailoa has an average of 17.1 – by far the top spot! While Tua is likely rostered if you play in a Superflex or 2QB league, there’s a good chance he’s available in 1QB leagues.
“The Truth”: Caleb Williams
I am, in my heart of hearts, a numbers person. When I saw Caleb Williams’ Strength of Schedule Adjusted Score (SOS Adj. Score), I knew I was going to have to play with it. So here are some numbers. In terms of points per game, this way it doesn’t matter if someone has played more/fewer games than others – Williams was QB10 from Weeks 5 – 10 with 20.0 fantasy points/game. He’s second among all QBs with a +15.7 difference between his 6-game PPR score and his SOS Adj. Score. Meaning if he played a neutral schedule, he would have scored about 2.5 points per game more.
What does it all mean?
Adding three points/game to Caleb Williams’ average would put him at QB5 for the Week 5-10 period. This is significant because Williams’ playoff schedule rates as a C, which means it falls within the range of “Average.” Bear in mind, “Average” is a big improvement for Williams! That would be an expected +3 points in every game.
If you’re looking to trade for a QB to win your league and not break the bank, Caleb Williams is your target.
Medium Schedule:
“Alpha”: Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford is on what we very-professional analysts call a “heater.” 20 passing TDs over a six-game span will do that for you. In addition, Stafford checks in with a position leading +21.5 difference between his 6-game PPR score and his SOS Adj. Score. So even though he’s done really well, he would have done even better against more average defenses.
An irresistible force…
If you take one thing from this section, take this: Don’t be scared off by Stafford’s middling schedule. His extreme 6-game/SOS Adj. difference tells us the story that it doesn’t matter how difficult the matchup, Stafford is up to the task. I suppose having Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, and a mind like Sean McVay behind you can do that for you.
Keep an eye on the Stafford manager in your league in case they’re spooked by the matchups and willing to sell. He wouldn’t be my first priority, but he’s better than most.
Worst Schedules:
“Musings of a Cigarette Smoking Man”: Drake Maye
Have you ever seen Drake Maye play? The guy makes play after play despite being constantly crushed. I’d need a cigarette after all that, too, and I don’t even smoke. While Maye has been a revelation this year in fantasy, solidifying himself among the top QB options and, if not, just below, his playoff schedule leaves plenty to be desired.
The conundrum…
Maye has played a very easy schedule over the past six weeks. That’s not his fault, and he’s performed well against them. But having the 2nd-worst schedule for QBs is a tough row to hoe. If you have to roll him out because he’s your best option, you do what you have to do. But if there’s one QB I’d try to ship out to better my chances at a championship, it’s Drake Maye.
“Jump the Shark”: Josh Allen
Fun fact – I made an error when first generating this chart and missed out on including QB rushing stats. It was Josh Allen’s low total that caught my attention. In fact, 41.3% of Allen’s fantasy points in his 6-game sample come from the ground. That’s, umm, a lot. The days of Allen lighting it up through the air are gone. At least for 2025.
But ironically, right?
You’re probably not benching Allen no matter what. He’s Josh Freaking Allen, after all. But that schedule is scary, man. That Allen is essentially even with his SOS Adj. doesn’t exactly inspire an abundance of faith. Nor does the fact that Josh’s passing stats are middling at best. The silver lining is the defenses he’s facing are effective at facing QBs – not Josh “Alien.”
And as we all know, when aliens are involved, anything is possible.
Wide Receivers:
Best Schedules:
“Number Nine. Number Nine” Justin Jefferson (and Jordan Addison)
Being a Justin Jefferson manager has not been particularly fun this season. J.J. McCarthy has not been the revelation the Vikings’ front office had hoped for, leaving the Minnesota pass catchers missing the days of Sam Darnold. Truthfully, Jefferson has been fine, averaging 14.7 PPR points per week. But we weren’t expecting “fine” during draft season when we all took him in the first round ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
There is good news ahead for those who have stuck it out with Jefferson, and to an extent, Jordan Addison. The Vikings face a three-pack of vulnerable pass defenses during the fantasy playoffs. With the Cowboys, Giants, and Lions on the menu, Jefferson and Addison have the opportunity to provide those boom performances you’ve come to expect from these players.
Right now, there is a small window for managers looking for an advantage to go out and check in with the Jeferrson/Addison owner. They may be disappointed with the current results and be looking to move on, giving you the chance to acquire great players with a strong fantasy schedule to end the season.
“D.J. Phone Rome” Rome Odunze (and D.J. Moore)
The Chicago offense is a difficult group to trust in fantasy. The wide receiver room, in particular, has been a tough one to nail down. Rome Odunze kicked off the year hot, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the Bears’ first four games. After the bye, he has failed to surpass 6 PPR points on three separate occasions over the last five games. Not ideal!
On the other hand, there’s D.J. Moore, who has been largely unplayable outside of his baffling two-touchdown game (don’t forget he threw one – thanks Ben Johnson!). Moore represents a player who has the opportunity to be a producer for your fantasy team, but only when you aren’t looking. It’s been a frustrating ride between these two players, but there is some good news on the horizon.
The Bears have a favorable end-of-year schedule that can change everyone’s perception of this crew. While the Bears do have to battle through a stingy Cleveland defense in Week 15, they will be rewarded with a pair of increasingly easier matchups against Green Bay and San Francisco. D.J. Moore should be an easier asset to acquire. Odunze, not so much. However, it is worth knocking on their managers’ door to see where they value the second-year receiver out of Washington.
Chicago, as an offense, has appeared to be on the same page as the team has won six of their last seven games. They’ll need to continue to improve as they fight for their first division title since 2018. If they want to be the best, their wide receivers need to come through.
“Unbreakable” Jauan Jennings
Just by typing his name, I think Jauan Jennings has broken another rib. But that won’t stop San Francisco’s de facto WR1 from making the most of his opportunity. Jennings seems like he’s healthy for what feels like the first time this season, and has registered back-to-back double-digit scoring performances. He’s heating up at just the right time, too, as his schedule looks delightfully kind to receivers from here on out.
Though San Francisco’s bye comes at an unfortunate time for fantasy managers (Week 14, the last week of the regular fantasy season), those who make the playoffs are rewarded with a potentially league-winning schedule. The 49ers face off against the Tennessee Titans (allowing 215 pass yards/game), the Indianapolis Colts (235 pass yards/game) and the Chicago Bears (240 pass yards/game). Not only are these weaker passing defenses, but these are teams (except the Titans) with good offenses that will force San Francisco to throw to stay in the game. This is a fantastic combination to produce a boom game for a wide receiver.
The only concern would be the return of Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall. Jennings is already competing for targets alongside George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey; the last thing he needs is more wide receivers stealing opportunities. Fingers crossed that Jennings can run away with the lead role in the next few weeks.
Worst Schedules:
“Deserted in the Desert” Marvin Harrison
This is probably low-hanging fruit as Marvin Harrison is going to be missing time thanks to an appendicitis injury – but it’s important to mention his awful fantasy playoff schedule anyway.
The Cardinals’ offense has found new life with Jacoby Brissett under center. This has been great news for fantasy players, but this hasn’t necessarily resulted in many wins for the real football organization. MHJ has been a big winner thanks to the QB change, though the good times may be coming to an early end.
MHJ and the Cardinals have to face the vaunted Houston defense in the opening round of the playoffs. This matchup alone is enough to turn heel and find another playable option outside of Harrison. If your team does survive that, and MHJ is still on your roster, you have to hope again that he can produce against a coin-flippy Atlanta defense. The vibes aren’t awesome surrounding Marv.
The unspoken concern that folks may be ignoring is the fear of Brissett turning into a pumpkin. We’ve seen it time and time again with backups that have seemingly elevated the offense. As teams see more of Brissett, there is certainly a chance they catch on to tendencies and make the Arizona passing attack weaker. Try to find another startable option now to get ready for a playoff run without relying on MHJ.
“Mile High Mystery” Courtland Sutton
No one can comprehend the enigma that is the Denver Broncos. Sean Payton is playing some sort of game, not sure if it’s chess or checkers, that none of us can really follow. Maybe he’s just playing a new version of Balatro, where he’s amassing a strange collection of Jokers that don’t necessarily do anything for Bo Nix.
Despite being 8-2, the Broncos are 17th in points per game. Dead in the middle of the league. This isn’t something that usually happens with a team that’s sitting as the second seed in the AFC. This middling scoring is felt the most by fantasy managers rostering Courtland Sutton, the alleged WR1 for this offense.
Sutton is currently the WR16 in fantasy, but it certainly feels much worse than that. Over the past three weeks, he has failed to score over 11 PPR points. In fact, he’s done that just once in the past five weeks. This doesn’t bode well for Denver’s top receiver as they prepare to face Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Kansas City at the end of the season. KC, in particular, is a dangerous foe to face during the fantasy championship, as they are 4th in the league in points allowed per game (17.7, just behind Denver at 17.3). If you can, shop around to see if league mates are interested in a potential Sutton bounce back. You could find yourself moving on from a potential dud during the most crucial portion of the fantasy year.
“The Pitts” D.K. Metcalf
There was a time when I was pretty bullish on Metcalf’s arrival in Pittsburgh. It seemed like a solid fit, where an offense that clearly needed a true WR1 landed a player who is ready to demand the bulk of the targets. It’s disappointing to see how this marriage ended up being less fireworks and more frustration. The honeymoon was fun, with Metcalf exploding for 120 yards and a touchdown overseas. After the bye, however, the union of Aaron Rodgers and Metcalf has seemed to take a turn for the worse. It could be a by-product of a bad schedule. However, if that’s the case, then fantasy managers will want to get off this ride, as the playoff schedule will not be kind to the Steelers.
The Steelers face Miami, Detroit, and Cleveland to finish out the fantasy year. Unfortunately, receivers have not seen success against these defenses for one reason or another. In the case of Miami, teams have found that running the ball is all they need to do. In the case of Cleveland, their pass rush is so potent that teams struggle to just get the ball out in time. Old Man Rodgers will have a tough time in the pocket if he can’t dodge Myles Garrett. Metcalf can’t catch the ball if Rodgers is on his backside.
We may be in “trade after his next big game” territory for Metcalf, because there is uncertainty if any of those games will happen again this season.
Now What?
That was a lot to take in, but preparation is what separates contenders from champions. Let the information sink in, trust your instincts, and move forward with purpose. The truth might be out there, but the path to the championship is right in front of you.
Part 2 will take us even deeper into the mystery, so stay tuned. If you have specific questions, you know where to reach us.
Until next time, Optimus signing off.
For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!
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