Tell your friends (just not your leaguemates until next week)
by Optimus Staff
Welcome back, one and all. If you are confused as to why I am welcoming you back, stop what you are doing and go check out Part 1 of this series.
Now, without further ado…
(Click the play button above for the full experience)
*X files music plays in the distance*
Have you ever wondered if there is really an NFL script? What does Vegas know that we don’t know? Does the league have a ‘make sure the Chiefs stay relevant’ department? Who knows. BUT….
Now that I have your attention, let me tell you a little bit of what you will find as you read on. The goal of this article is not to make you panic. We want to help ease your path to victory.
Script or no script, we have data. While there may be some huge conspiracy out there, we are here to try our best to help you navigate it. Have you been bamboozled into thinking you are safe with James Cook as your RB1? Are you nervous about someone like Hunter Henry letting you down when it matters most?
We may not have all of the answers, but we have compiled the data to help you work through these questions and potentially seek out trades before your deadline that will help propel you to the championship. Let’s get into Part 2 of this two-part series, where we break down RBs and TEs. You can find Part 1 (covering QBs and WRs) here.
The Schedule Conspiracy: Who’s Got the Secret Path to the Championship (Part 2)
Check out our Premium Tools – Use the promo code “THANKSOPTIMUS” for a two-week free trial
How This Works
You’ve made it this far! Congratulations. Now, before we truly dive in, we want to make this accessible for everyone. We here at Optimus may be huge data nerds (sorry, not sorry), but that doesn’t mean you are or have to be. We covered the “how it works” in Part 1. To save time and space, please refer back to that article for the full explanation.
Running Backs:
Best Schedules:
“Miracle Man”: Javonte Williams
Ok, who saw this kind of Javonte Williams season coming? Put your hands down, you filthy liars. Williams has cooled off a bit after his torrid first three weeks of the season, when he averaged 19.2 PPG; he’s now down to 16.7. Still plenty good, but he’s no longer in the rarefied ~RB5 air. One thing we need to keep in mind for the RB section is that the defensive team averages account for the entire opponent RBs. Which means for the playoffs, Dallas’ opponents allow an average of 22.2 points to the entire backfield.
Only mostly dead?
Yeah, Javonte’s schedule is only a B. But you know what he is? He’s the best performing RB with the best playoff schedule. In fact, he’s scored 80.5% of all Dallas RB fantasy points over the six-game sample. To put that into perspective, that amounts to 17.9 points per game in the fantasy playoffs. That works out to RB9 overall in terms of fantasy points/game on the season.
Javonte Williams has the best combination of production, playoff schedule, and cost to attain of any RB.
“Lazarus”: Arizona RB – Emari Demercado, Trey Benson?
Remember, these defensive stats are by backfield, not by individual player. I say this because I don’t want you to see Arizona’s opponents’ average of 25.6 and think one running back will get all of it. After Trey Benson got hurt, Arizona has used three different running backs in rotation – Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight, and Emari Demercado. The problem is that only one of these RBs accounted for even 36% of snaps, and none of them accounted for even 35% of the total points scored over the 6-week evaluation timeframe.
Back from the dead?
It was only for a single week, but while he was the starter, Trey Benson accounted for 55.2% of snaps. Even then, he got hurt late in that contest, and his snap percentage would be even higher. The point of this is that if Benson comes back to 60% of snaps and RB scoring, he gets a schedule that allows 25.6 fantasy points/game on average. For those wondering, 60% works out to 15.4 fantasy points on average.
That’s definitely better than the 6-8 you’re getting from the current crop of Arizona RBs.
“The Field Where I Died”: Tampa Bay RB – Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, Bucky Irving?
Boy, that’s a really juicy rushing schedule for Tampa Bay during the playoffs! For the past five games, Rachaad White has taken 71.4% of the snaps and scored 68% of the Buccaneers’ fantasy points coming from their backfield. However, over the past two games, while he’s still sitting at a healthy 64.4% of snaps, he’s fallen to 47% of the fantasy output. Meanwhile, Sean Tucker has taken the top spot, scoring 50% of the fantasy points. This is concerning as we look towards the playoffs.
Remember when…
Bucky Irving was running wild? We have to go all the way back to Week 4, and he’s maybe sort of getting ready to come back? If he does come back in time for the fantasy playoffs, he’s a slam-dunk bet to return value. If all the Tampa Bay RBs assume their regular roles during the fantasy playoffs, that means Irving would account for 72% of the 24.8 fantasy points/game for the playoffs. To the tune of an average of 17.9 per game.
If you’ve got the stomach for it, Bucky Irving is a high-upside gamble.
Worst Schedules:
“The Fallen Angel”: James Cook
If he’s on your fantasy team, James Cook is so much fun to watch play. If you’re playing against him, not so much. Cook has been one of the best value picks in the entire fantasy football universe this year. He’s returned strong RB1 value all season and would have to be in Round 1 consideration if we re-drafted the 2025 season.
Excommunicated?
He’s not dead last, but he’s not far off. Usually, I would say things like, “Oh, don’t worry, Cook is a great RB in a great offense, and he can outperform his situation.” It’s true. However, look at his PPR 6-game and SOS Adj. Scores – they’re almost identical. That means Cook has played a pretty average schedule strength over the 6-game sample. 15.9 points per game isn’t terrible, but if you remember that it’s the total for the entire backfield, that’s a problem. Cook scores 80.3% of the fantasy points scored by the Buffalo RBs, which brings that 15.9 down to a 12.9. That’s not nearly good enough.
If there’s a single RB I encourage you to trade away before the fantasy playoffs to bolster your playoff run, it’s James Cook.
“Grotesque”: Detroit Lions – Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
If you drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, you’re probably pretty happy with the overall result. There are cracks to his game, though. Gibbs has only scored over 20 points in three of the nine games he has played, and he has scored under 10 points twice. Even David Montgomery hasn’t been himself. He’s failed to hit 10 points four times and has only met or exceeded 15 points twice. It’s all so very…
Hideous!
Detroit has a very rough playoff schedule for RBs. Unlike years passed, Detroit hasn’t run the ball effectively against every opponent, regardless of who they are. They beat up on the weaker teams and struggle against the stronger ones. However, in our sample section, Jahmyr Gibbs has outperformed his expected outcome by the 3rd most among RBs at +15.3. Considering he outscores Montgomery by a 2:1 ratio, there’s enough there for him to still find success even with a tough schedule. This is a bit different because there’s both a ‘do’ and a ‘don’t’ involved.
Don’t rely on David Montgomery in the fantasy playoffs. Temper overall expectations, but do feel confident rolling out Jahmyr Gibbs.
“Ascension”: Denver – J.K. Dobbins?, RJ Harvey
All season, people have waited for RJ Harvey to take over the main job from J.K. Dobbins. Well, now Dobbins is injured, and there’s talk that he could go on IR. If he does so before Week 11, he could return as early as the Week 15 matchup. But let’s play a game with RJ Harvey, assuming J.K. Dobbins is out. We have to ask: Is it worth it?
Let me work it.
If we compare Harvey’s PPR (6-game) to his SOS Adj. Score, they’re pretty even, which means he’s played an average strength schedule. Now we add in the playoff strength of schedule, and it’s dead last. The bottom. The most difficult. Finally, we have the Sean Payton factor. We know Payton tends to spread the ball around and work in obscure players when it doesn’t make sense to fantasy players.
In short, no metrics—when considering the playoff schedule and RJ Harvey’s performance—suggest he should be a target for you.
Tight Ends:
Best Schedules:
“Fire”: AJ Barner
It would be disingenuous to say anyone saw A.J. Barner’s rise coming this season. The idea wasn’t outrageous — the second-year TE out of Michigan drew 38 targets as a rookie, posting 30 catches for 245 yards and four TDs. This year, though, he already has 26 targets for 236 yards and another four end zone visits.
His target share has been inconsistent, ranging from 20.6% in Week 5 to just 5% in Week 3, but his usage hasn’t wavered. Barner consistently runs nine to 11 routes per game, and his snap share has stayed above 80% in all but two contests. His best fantasy output has come in tighter matchups, like Week 5 against Tampa Bay (24.3 PPR points), where scoring chances are more plentiful.
Despite his dud in Week 10 (no targets, two carries for three yards), managers shouldn’t overreact. Seattle had the game wrapped up by the end of the first quarter, limiting his involvement.
Let others be scared, because his fantasy playoff schedule sets up well. Week 15 brings the Colts in what should be a high-scoring, competitive matchup — and Indianapolis is a strong tight end matchup (4th in schedule-adjusted rank). Week 16 is only slightly tougher with the Rams (8th), but that projects as another closely contested game, similar to the Buccaneers matchup that fueled one of his best performances.
“Pusher”: Mark Andrews
It’s no secret that Ravens TE Mark Andrews has been a massive disappointment this season, but things are looking up for the veteran bookend. Sure, his overall snap and target shares are down over the last few weeks, which is cause for concern.
Andrews was averaging 4.5 targets (down to 3.6) and a 71% snap share through the Ravens’ first six weeks. Since their Week 7 bye, Andrews is averaging 3.6 targets and a 57% snap share.
However, since the volume downturn, Andrews has actually seen an uptick in fantasy relevance, thanks to three TD catches over the last two games. Lamar Jackson is pivoting back to his most trusted red zone target as the team pushes for a shot at sneaking into the NFL playoffs.
Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, Andrews and the Ravens’ matchups couldn’t be better. Most managers will likely view his two standout games as a fluke, given his recent history. Take advantage of the mistrust and a favorable playoff schedule that gives the veteran TE an A grade and a chance at late-season redemption.
“Sunshine Days”: Jacksonville TE, Hunter Long/Brenton Strange
I’m not a fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense, and I think I’ve made that clear through my analysis this season. However, despite my disdain for Trevor Lawrence, the return of TE Brenton Strange from IR is at the very least intriguing.
Believe it or not, the Jaguars are in playoff contention. However, being sans rookie phenom Travis Hunter for the remainder of the season and WR1 Brian Thomas turning into a ghost, Lawrence has to throw somewhere. Before getting injured and landing on IR in Week 5 against Kansas City, Strange was averaging 5.25 targets and an 81.5% snap share.
With minimal inexpensive options available to help you in your fantasy playoffs, Strange presents an interesting opportunity. Many managers are down on the Jaguars in general, and Strange hasn’t been active since getting banged up in Week 5. Furthermore, he’s likely a few weeks away from returning, keeping him off the radar of fellow managers in terms of relevance. Now is the perfect time to move on to acquiring Strange for your fantasy football playoff run.
Worst Schedules:
“Never Again”: Kyle Pitts
It’s been a bad enough season for Kyle Pitts and his fantasy football managers. “This was our year!” we said. Spoiler alert: it was not, in fact, our year.
The most frustrating part of another mediocre year from Pitts is that the opportunity is there. Through 9 games, the fifth-year Falcons’ bookend has 59 targets (fifth amongst all TEs) and 420 yards (10th amongst all TEs). However, despite those numbers, Pitts is currently the PPR TE14.
The simple fact is, Pitts keeps getting strapped with below-average QB play, and it’s not getting better with second-year QB Michael Penix behind center. If you’re a Pitts manager, the reality is that the risk is too much; Pitts becomes unstartable in the fantasy football playoffs.
Despite a stable workload, Pitts isn’t scoring TDs, and his matchups in the fantasy playoffs are brutal. Better to move off of him now, whether you can sucker another manager into a trade or just simply dropping him and walking away (I suggest trying the former first).
“Alone”: Zach Ertz
Things are amiss in Washington, and what was an exceptionally attractive offense for fantasy football has become a pariah. Sans QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin, it’s hard to find value in the once-vaunted Commanders offense. While backup QB Marcus Mariota has performed admirably, it hasn’t translated into other assets in the offense.
While I could opine on the death of Deebo Samuel, we’re here to talk TEs and the decline of Zach Ertz.
It’s only fair to point out that Ertz has been good in spots, notably when Daniels has been behind center. All four of his TD catches were received from the former LSU QB. I wouldn’t move from Ertz right now. You won’t get much in return, and he’s enough of an “it could happen” candidate that he might be flex-worthy in Weeks 15 and 17.
“Hellbound”: Hunter Henry
That early-season Hunter Henry blow-up was fun, especially for those of us who were drafting the veteran TE later in drafts. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, and Henry’s boon took a nose-dive after Week 4.
To be fair, Henry was the overall half-PPR TE4 after 4 weeks, mostly because of two games. In Weeks 1 and 3, he had 19 targets, resulting in 12 catches for 156 yards, two TDs and 33.6 fantasy points. Week 4 was the start of a permanent course correction for Henry’s volume, but he still snagged a TD despite seeing just two targets.
Since Week 4, Henry is averaging 3.8 targets and 28.8 receiving yards per game and has two total touchdowns. Despite the limited volume, Henry continues to see a snap share above 75% on a regular basis.
The focus of the New England offense and QB Drake Maye has shifted away from Henry and is now focusing on stretching the field more. Henry is cemented in his role with limited volume, and the fantasy playoff stretch is brutal for Henry. While I wouldn’t say he is droppable, I’d work on a trade with a TE-needy team and be done with the veteran bookend.
Now What?
That was a lot to take in, but preparation is what separates contenders from champions. Let the information sink in, trust your instincts, and move forward with purpose. The truth might be out there, but the path to the championship is right in front of you.
Part 1 is out there. If you have specific questions, you know where to reach us.
Until next time, Optimus signing off.
For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!
Welcome back, one and all. If you are confused as to why I am welcoming you back, stop what you are doing and go check out Part 1 of this series.
Now, without further ado…
(Click the play button above for the full experience)
*X files music plays in the distance*
Have you ever wondered if there is really an NFL script? What does Vegas know that we don’t know? Does the league have a ‘make sure the Chiefs stay relevant’ department? Who knows. BUT….
Now that I have your attention, let me tell you a little bit of what you will find as you read on. The goal of this article is not to make you panic. We want to help ease your path to victory.
Script or no script, we have data. While there may be some huge conspiracy out there, we are here to try our best to help you navigate it. Have you been bamboozled into thinking you are safe with James Cook as your RB1? Are you nervous about someone like Hunter Henry letting you down when it matters most?
We may not have all of the answers, but we have compiled the data to help you work through these questions and potentially seek out trades before your deadline that will help propel you to the championship. Let’s get into Part 2 of this two-part series, where we break down RBs and TEs. You can find Part 1 (covering QBs and WRs) here.
The Schedule Conspiracy: Who’s Got the Secret Path to the Championship (Part 2)
Check out our Premium Tools – Use the promo code “THANKSOPTIMUS” for a two-week free trial
How This Works
You’ve made it this far! Congratulations. Now, before we truly dive in, we want to make this accessible for everyone. We here at Optimus may be huge data nerds (sorry, not sorry), but that doesn’t mean you are or have to be. We covered the “how it works” in Part 1. To save time and space, please refer back to that article for the full explanation.
Running Backs:
Best Schedules:
“Miracle Man”: Javonte Williams
Ok, who saw this kind of Javonte Williams season coming? Put your hands down, you filthy liars. Williams has cooled off a bit after his torrid first three weeks of the season, when he averaged 19.2 PPG; he’s now down to 16.7. Still plenty good, but he’s no longer in the rarefied ~RB5 air. One thing we need to keep in mind for the RB section is that the defensive team averages account for the entire opponent RBs. Which means for the playoffs, Dallas’ opponents allow an average of 22.2 points to the entire backfield.
Only mostly dead?
Yeah, Javonte’s schedule is only a B. But you know what he is? He’s the best performing RB with the best playoff schedule. In fact, he’s scored 80.5% of all Dallas RB fantasy points over the six-game sample. To put that into perspective, that amounts to 17.9 points per game in the fantasy playoffs. That works out to RB9 overall in terms of fantasy points/game on the season.
Javonte Williams has the best combination of production, playoff schedule, and cost to attain of any RB.
“Lazarus”: Arizona RB – Emari Demercado, Trey Benson?
Remember, these defensive stats are by backfield, not by individual player. I say this because I don’t want you to see Arizona’s opponents’ average of 25.6 and think one running back will get all of it. After Trey Benson got hurt, Arizona has used three different running backs in rotation – Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight, and Emari Demercado. The problem is that only one of these RBs accounted for even 36% of snaps, and none of them accounted for even 35% of the total points scored over the 6-week evaluation timeframe.
Back from the dead?
It was only for a single week, but while he was the starter, Trey Benson accounted for 55.2% of snaps. Even then, he got hurt late in that contest, and his snap percentage would be even higher. The point of this is that if Benson comes back to 60% of snaps and RB scoring, he gets a schedule that allows 25.6 fantasy points/game on average. For those wondering, 60% works out to 15.4 fantasy points on average.
That’s definitely better than the 6-8 you’re getting from the current crop of Arizona RBs.
“The Field Where I Died”: Tampa Bay RB – Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, Bucky Irving?
Boy, that’s a really juicy rushing schedule for Tampa Bay during the playoffs! For the past five games, Rachaad White has taken 71.4% of the snaps and scored 68% of the Buccaneers’ fantasy points coming from their backfield. However, over the past two games, while he’s still sitting at a healthy 64.4% of snaps, he’s fallen to 47% of the fantasy output. Meanwhile, Sean Tucker has taken the top spot, scoring 50% of the fantasy points. This is concerning as we look towards the playoffs.
Remember when…
Bucky Irving was running wild? We have to go all the way back to Week 4, and he’s maybe sort of getting ready to come back? If he does come back in time for the fantasy playoffs, he’s a slam-dunk bet to return value. If all the Tampa Bay RBs assume their regular roles during the fantasy playoffs, that means Irving would account for 72% of the 24.8 fantasy points/game for the playoffs. To the tune of an average of 17.9 per game.
If you’ve got the stomach for it, Bucky Irving is a high-upside gamble.
Worst Schedules:
“The Fallen Angel”: James Cook
If he’s on your fantasy team, James Cook is so much fun to watch play. If you’re playing against him, not so much. Cook has been one of the best value picks in the entire fantasy football universe this year. He’s returned strong RB1 value all season and would have to be in Round 1 consideration if we re-drafted the 2025 season.
Excommunicated?
He’s not dead last, but he’s not far off. Usually, I would say things like, “Oh, don’t worry, Cook is a great RB in a great offense, and he can outperform his situation.” It’s true. However, look at his PPR 6-game and SOS Adj. Scores – they’re almost identical. That means Cook has played a pretty average schedule strength over the 6-game sample. 15.9 points per game isn’t terrible, but if you remember that it’s the total for the entire backfield, that’s a problem. Cook scores 80.3% of the fantasy points scored by the Buffalo RBs, which brings that 15.9 down to a 12.9. That’s not nearly good enough.
If there’s a single RB I encourage you to trade away before the fantasy playoffs to bolster your playoff run, it’s James Cook.
“Grotesque”: Detroit Lions – Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
If you drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, you’re probably pretty happy with the overall result. There are cracks to his game, though. Gibbs has only scored over 20 points in three of the nine games he has played, and he has scored under 10 points twice. Even David Montgomery hasn’t been himself. He’s failed to hit 10 points four times and has only met or exceeded 15 points twice. It’s all so very…
Hideous!
Detroit has a very rough playoff schedule for RBs. Unlike years passed, Detroit hasn’t run the ball effectively against every opponent, regardless of who they are. They beat up on the weaker teams and struggle against the stronger ones. However, in our sample section, Jahmyr Gibbs has outperformed his expected outcome by the 3rd most among RBs at +15.3. Considering he outscores Montgomery by a 2:1 ratio, there’s enough there for him to still find success even with a tough schedule. This is a bit different because there’s both a ‘do’ and a ‘don’t’ involved.
Don’t rely on David Montgomery in the fantasy playoffs. Temper overall expectations, but do feel confident rolling out Jahmyr Gibbs.
“Ascension”: Denver – J.K. Dobbins?, RJ Harvey
All season, people have waited for RJ Harvey to take over the main job from J.K. Dobbins. Well, now Dobbins is injured, and there’s talk that he could go on IR. If he does so before Week 11, he could return as early as the Week 15 matchup. But let’s play a game with RJ Harvey, assuming J.K. Dobbins is out. We have to ask: Is it worth it?
Let me work it.
If we compare Harvey’s PPR (6-game) to his SOS Adj. Score, they’re pretty even, which means he’s played an average strength schedule. Now we add in the playoff strength of schedule, and it’s dead last. The bottom. The most difficult. Finally, we have the Sean Payton factor. We know Payton tends to spread the ball around and work in obscure players when it doesn’t make sense to fantasy players.
In short, no metrics—when considering the playoff schedule and RJ Harvey’s performance—suggest he should be a target for you.
Tight Ends:
Best Schedules:
“Fire”: AJ Barner
It would be disingenuous to say anyone saw A.J. Barner’s rise coming this season. The idea wasn’t outrageous — the second-year TE out of Michigan drew 38 targets as a rookie, posting 30 catches for 245 yards and four TDs. This year, though, he already has 26 targets for 236 yards and another four end zone visits.
His target share has been inconsistent, ranging from 20.6% in Week 5 to just 5% in Week 3, but his usage hasn’t wavered. Barner consistently runs nine to 11 routes per game, and his snap share has stayed above 80% in all but two contests. His best fantasy output has come in tighter matchups, like Week 5 against Tampa Bay (24.3 PPR points), where scoring chances are more plentiful.
Despite his dud in Week 10 (no targets, two carries for three yards), managers shouldn’t overreact. Seattle had the game wrapped up by the end of the first quarter, limiting his involvement.
Let others be scared, because his fantasy playoff schedule sets up well. Week 15 brings the Colts in what should be a high-scoring, competitive matchup — and Indianapolis is a strong tight end matchup (4th in schedule-adjusted rank). Week 16 is only slightly tougher with the Rams (8th), but that projects as another closely contested game, similar to the Buccaneers matchup that fueled one of his best performances.
“Pusher”: Mark Andrews
It’s no secret that Ravens TE Mark Andrews has been a massive disappointment this season, but things are looking up for the veteran bookend. Sure, his overall snap and target shares are down over the last few weeks, which is cause for concern.
Andrews was averaging 4.5 targets (down to 3.6) and a 71% snap share through the Ravens’ first six weeks. Since their Week 7 bye, Andrews is averaging 3.6 targets and a 57% snap share.
However, since the volume downturn, Andrews has actually seen an uptick in fantasy relevance, thanks to three TD catches over the last two games. Lamar Jackson is pivoting back to his most trusted red zone target as the team pushes for a shot at sneaking into the NFL playoffs.
Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, Andrews and the Ravens’ matchups couldn’t be better. Most managers will likely view his two standout games as a fluke, given his recent history. Take advantage of the mistrust and a favorable playoff schedule that gives the veteran TE an A grade and a chance at late-season redemption.
“Sunshine Days”: Jacksonville TE, Hunter Long/Brenton Strange
I’m not a fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense, and I think I’ve made that clear through my analysis this season. However, despite my disdain for Trevor Lawrence, the return of TE Brenton Strange from IR is at the very least intriguing.
Believe it or not, the Jaguars are in playoff contention. However, being sans rookie phenom Travis Hunter for the remainder of the season and WR1 Brian Thomas turning into a ghost, Lawrence has to throw somewhere. Before getting injured and landing on IR in Week 5 against Kansas City, Strange was averaging 5.25 targets and an 81.5% snap share.
With minimal inexpensive options available to help you in your fantasy playoffs, Strange presents an interesting opportunity. Many managers are down on the Jaguars in general, and Strange hasn’t been active since getting banged up in Week 5. Furthermore, he’s likely a few weeks away from returning, keeping him off the radar of fellow managers in terms of relevance. Now is the perfect time to move on to acquiring Strange for your fantasy football playoff run.
Worst Schedules:
“Never Again”: Kyle Pitts
It’s been a bad enough season for Kyle Pitts and his fantasy football managers. “This was our year!” we said. Spoiler alert: it was not, in fact, our year.
The most frustrating part of another mediocre year from Pitts is that the opportunity is there. Through 9 games, the fifth-year Falcons’ bookend has 59 targets (fifth amongst all TEs) and 420 yards (10th amongst all TEs). However, despite those numbers, Pitts is currently the PPR TE14.
The simple fact is, Pitts keeps getting strapped with below-average QB play, and it’s not getting better with second-year QB Michael Penix behind center. If you’re a Pitts manager, the reality is that the risk is too much; Pitts becomes unstartable in the fantasy football playoffs.
Despite a stable workload, Pitts isn’t scoring TDs, and his matchups in the fantasy playoffs are brutal. Better to move off of him now, whether you can sucker another manager into a trade or just simply dropping him and walking away (I suggest trying the former first).
“Alone”: Zach Ertz
Things are amiss in Washington, and what was an exceptionally attractive offense for fantasy football has become a pariah. Sans QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin, it’s hard to find value in the once-vaunted Commanders offense. While backup QB Marcus Mariota has performed admirably, it hasn’t translated into other assets in the offense.
While I could opine on the death of Deebo Samuel, we’re here to talk TEs and the decline of Zach Ertz.
It’s only fair to point out that Ertz has been good in spots, notably when Daniels has been behind center. All four of his TD catches were received from the former LSU QB. I wouldn’t move from Ertz right now. You won’t get much in return, and he’s enough of an “it could happen” candidate that he might be flex-worthy in Weeks 15 and 17.
“Hellbound”: Hunter Henry
That early-season Hunter Henry blow-up was fun, especially for those of us who were drafting the veteran TE later in drafts. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, and Henry’s boon took a nose-dive after Week 4.
To be fair, Henry was the overall half-PPR TE4 after 4 weeks, mostly because of two games. In Weeks 1 and 3, he had 19 targets, resulting in 12 catches for 156 yards, two TDs and 33.6 fantasy points. Week 4 was the start of a permanent course correction for Henry’s volume, but he still snagged a TD despite seeing just two targets.
Since Week 4, Henry is averaging 3.8 targets and 28.8 receiving yards per game and has two total touchdowns. Despite the limited volume, Henry continues to see a snap share above 75% on a regular basis.
The focus of the New England offense and QB Drake Maye has shifted away from Henry and is now focusing on stretching the field more. Henry is cemented in his role with limited volume, and the fantasy playoff stretch is brutal for Henry. While I wouldn’t say he is droppable, I’d work on a trade with a TE-needy team and be done with the veteran bookend.
Now What?
That was a lot to take in, but preparation is what separates contenders from champions. Let the information sink in, trust your instincts, and move forward with purpose. The truth might be out there, but the path to the championship is right in front of you.
Part 1 is out there. If you have specific questions, you know where to reach us.
Until next time, Optimus signing off.
For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!
Welcome back, one and all. If you are confused as to why I am welcoming you back, stop what you are doing and go check out Part 1 of this series.
Now, without further ado…
(Click the play button above for the full experience)
*X files music plays in the distance*
Have you ever wondered if there is really an NFL script? What does Vegas know that we don’t know? Does the league have a ‘make sure the Chiefs stay relevant’ department? Who knows. BUT….
Now that I have your attention, let me tell you a little bit of what you will find as you read on. The goal of this article is not to make you panic. We want to help ease your path to victory.
Script or no script, we have data. While there may be some huge conspiracy out there, we are here to try our best to help you navigate it. Have you been bamboozled into thinking you are safe with James Cook as your RB1? Are you nervous about someone like Hunter Henry letting you down when it matters most?
We may not have all of the answers, but we have compiled the data to help you work through these questions and potentially seek out trades before your deadline that will help propel you to the championship. Let’s get into Part 2 of this two-part series, where we break down RBs and TEs. You can find Part 1 (covering QBs and WRs) here.
The Schedule Conspiracy: Who’s Got the Secret Path to the Championship (Part 2)
Check out our Premium Tools – Use the promo code “THANKSOPTIMUS” for a two-week free trial
How This Works
You’ve made it this far! Congratulations. Now, before we truly dive in, we want to make this accessible for everyone. We here at Optimus may be huge data nerds (sorry, not sorry), but that doesn’t mean you are or have to be. We covered the “how it works” in Part 1. To save time and space, please refer back to that article for the full explanation.
Running Backs:
Best Schedules:
“Miracle Man”: Javonte Williams
Ok, who saw this kind of Javonte Williams season coming? Put your hands down, you filthy liars. Williams has cooled off a bit after his torrid first three weeks of the season, when he averaged 19.2 PPG; he’s now down to 16.7. Still plenty good, but he’s no longer in the rarefied ~RB5 air. One thing we need to keep in mind for the RB section is that the defensive team averages account for the entire opponent RBs. Which means for the playoffs, Dallas’ opponents allow an average of 22.2 points to the entire backfield.
Only mostly dead?
Yeah, Javonte’s schedule is only a B. But you know what he is? He’s the best performing RB with the best playoff schedule. In fact, he’s scored 80.5% of all Dallas RB fantasy points over the six-game sample. To put that into perspective, that amounts to 17.9 points per game in the fantasy playoffs. That works out to RB9 overall in terms of fantasy points/game on the season.
Javonte Williams has the best combination of production, playoff schedule, and cost to attain of any RB.
“Lazarus”: Arizona RB – Emari Demercado, Trey Benson?
Remember, these defensive stats are by backfield, not by individual player. I say this because I don’t want you to see Arizona’s opponents’ average of 25.6 and think one running back will get all of it. After Trey Benson got hurt, Arizona has used three different running backs in rotation – Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight, and Emari Demercado. The problem is that only one of these RBs accounted for even 36% of snaps, and none of them accounted for even 35% of the total points scored over the 6-week evaluation timeframe.
Back from the dead?
It was only for a single week, but while he was the starter, Trey Benson accounted for 55.2% of snaps. Even then, he got hurt late in that contest, and his snap percentage would be even higher. The point of this is that if Benson comes back to 60% of snaps and RB scoring, he gets a schedule that allows 25.6 fantasy points/game on average. For those wondering, 60% works out to 15.4 fantasy points on average.
That’s definitely better than the 6-8 you’re getting from the current crop of Arizona RBs.
“The Field Where I Died”: Tampa Bay RB – Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, Bucky Irving?
Boy, that’s a really juicy rushing schedule for Tampa Bay during the playoffs! For the past five games, Rachaad White has taken 71.4% of the snaps and scored 68% of the Buccaneers’ fantasy points coming from their backfield. However, over the past two games, while he’s still sitting at a healthy 64.4% of snaps, he’s fallen to 47% of the fantasy output. Meanwhile, Sean Tucker has taken the top spot, scoring 50% of the fantasy points. This is concerning as we look towards the playoffs.
Remember when…
Bucky Irving was running wild? We have to go all the way back to Week 4, and he’s maybe sort of getting ready to come back? If he does come back in time for the fantasy playoffs, he’s a slam-dunk bet to return value. If all the Tampa Bay RBs assume their regular roles during the fantasy playoffs, that means Irving would account for 72% of the 24.8 fantasy points/game for the playoffs. To the tune of an average of 17.9 per game.
If you’ve got the stomach for it, Bucky Irving is a high-upside gamble.
Worst Schedules:
“The Fallen Angel”: James Cook
If he’s on your fantasy team, James Cook is so much fun to watch play. If you’re playing against him, not so much. Cook has been one of the best value picks in the entire fantasy football universe this year. He’s returned strong RB1 value all season and would have to be in Round 1 consideration if we re-drafted the 2025 season.
Excommunicated?
He’s not dead last, but he’s not far off. Usually, I would say things like, “Oh, don’t worry, Cook is a great RB in a great offense, and he can outperform his situation.” It’s true. However, look at his PPR 6-game and SOS Adj. Scores – they’re almost identical. That means Cook has played a pretty average schedule strength over the 6-game sample. 15.9 points per game isn’t terrible, but if you remember that it’s the total for the entire backfield, that’s a problem. Cook scores 80.3% of the fantasy points scored by the Buffalo RBs, which brings that 15.9 down to a 12.9. That’s not nearly good enough.
If there’s a single RB I encourage you to trade away before the fantasy playoffs to bolster your playoff run, it’s James Cook.
“Grotesque”: Detroit Lions – Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
If you drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, you’re probably pretty happy with the overall result. There are cracks to his game, though. Gibbs has only scored over 20 points in three of the nine games he has played, and he has scored under 10 points twice. Even David Montgomery hasn’t been himself. He’s failed to hit 10 points four times and has only met or exceeded 15 points twice. It’s all so very…
Hideous!
Detroit has a very rough playoff schedule for RBs. Unlike years passed, Detroit hasn’t run the ball effectively against every opponent, regardless of who they are. They beat up on the weaker teams and struggle against the stronger ones. However, in our sample section, Jahmyr Gibbs has outperformed his expected outcome by the 3rd most among RBs at +15.3. Considering he outscores Montgomery by a 2:1 ratio, there’s enough there for him to still find success even with a tough schedule. This is a bit different because there’s both a ‘do’ and a ‘don’t’ involved.
Don’t rely on David Montgomery in the fantasy playoffs. Temper overall expectations, but do feel confident rolling out Jahmyr Gibbs.
“Ascension”: Denver – J.K. Dobbins?, RJ Harvey
All season, people have waited for RJ Harvey to take over the main job from J.K. Dobbins. Well, now Dobbins is injured, and there’s talk that he could go on IR. If he does so before Week 11, he could return as early as the Week 15 matchup. But let’s play a game with RJ Harvey, assuming J.K. Dobbins is out. We have to ask: Is it worth it?
Let me work it.
If we compare Harvey’s PPR (6-game) to his SOS Adj. Score, they’re pretty even, which means he’s played an average strength schedule. Now we add in the playoff strength of schedule, and it’s dead last. The bottom. The most difficult. Finally, we have the Sean Payton factor. We know Payton tends to spread the ball around and work in obscure players when it doesn’t make sense to fantasy players.
In short, no metrics—when considering the playoff schedule and RJ Harvey’s performance—suggest he should be a target for you.
Tight Ends:
Best Schedules:
“Fire”: AJ Barner
It would be disingenuous to say anyone saw A.J. Barner’s rise coming this season. The idea wasn’t outrageous — the second-year TE out of Michigan drew 38 targets as a rookie, posting 30 catches for 245 yards and four TDs. This year, though, he already has 26 targets for 236 yards and another four end zone visits.
His target share has been inconsistent, ranging from 20.6% in Week 5 to just 5% in Week 3, but his usage hasn’t wavered. Barner consistently runs nine to 11 routes per game, and his snap share has stayed above 80% in all but two contests. His best fantasy output has come in tighter matchups, like Week 5 against Tampa Bay (24.3 PPR points), where scoring chances are more plentiful.
Despite his dud in Week 10 (no targets, two carries for three yards), managers shouldn’t overreact. Seattle had the game wrapped up by the end of the first quarter, limiting his involvement.
Let others be scared, because his fantasy playoff schedule sets up well. Week 15 brings the Colts in what should be a high-scoring, competitive matchup — and Indianapolis is a strong tight end matchup (4th in schedule-adjusted rank). Week 16 is only slightly tougher with the Rams (8th), but that projects as another closely contested game, similar to the Buccaneers matchup that fueled one of his best performances.
“Pusher”: Mark Andrews
It’s no secret that Ravens TE Mark Andrews has been a massive disappointment this season, but things are looking up for the veteran bookend. Sure, his overall snap and target shares are down over the last few weeks, which is cause for concern.
Andrews was averaging 4.5 targets (down to 3.6) and a 71% snap share through the Ravens’ first six weeks. Since their Week 7 bye, Andrews is averaging 3.6 targets and a 57% snap share.
However, since the volume downturn, Andrews has actually seen an uptick in fantasy relevance, thanks to three TD catches over the last two games. Lamar Jackson is pivoting back to his most trusted red zone target as the team pushes for a shot at sneaking into the NFL playoffs.
Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, Andrews and the Ravens’ matchups couldn’t be better. Most managers will likely view his two standout games as a fluke, given his recent history. Take advantage of the mistrust and a favorable playoff schedule that gives the veteran TE an A grade and a chance at late-season redemption.
“Sunshine Days”: Jacksonville TE, Hunter Long/Brenton Strange
I’m not a fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense, and I think I’ve made that clear through my analysis this season. However, despite my disdain for Trevor Lawrence, the return of TE Brenton Strange from IR is at the very least intriguing.
Believe it or not, the Jaguars are in playoff contention. However, being sans rookie phenom Travis Hunter for the remainder of the season and WR1 Brian Thomas turning into a ghost, Lawrence has to throw somewhere. Before getting injured and landing on IR in Week 5 against Kansas City, Strange was averaging 5.25 targets and an 81.5% snap share.
With minimal inexpensive options available to help you in your fantasy playoffs, Strange presents an interesting opportunity. Many managers are down on the Jaguars in general, and Strange hasn’t been active since getting banged up in Week 5. Furthermore, he’s likely a few weeks away from returning, keeping him off the radar of fellow managers in terms of relevance. Now is the perfect time to move on to acquiring Strange for your fantasy football playoff run.
Worst Schedules:
“Never Again”: Kyle Pitts
It’s been a bad enough season for Kyle Pitts and his fantasy football managers. “This was our year!” we said. Spoiler alert: it was not, in fact, our year.
The most frustrating part of another mediocre year from Pitts is that the opportunity is there. Through 9 games, the fifth-year Falcons’ bookend has 59 targets (fifth amongst all TEs) and 420 yards (10th amongst all TEs). However, despite those numbers, Pitts is currently the PPR TE14.
The simple fact is, Pitts keeps getting strapped with below-average QB play, and it’s not getting better with second-year QB Michael Penix behind center. If you’re a Pitts manager, the reality is that the risk is too much; Pitts becomes unstartable in the fantasy football playoffs.
Despite a stable workload, Pitts isn’t scoring TDs, and his matchups in the fantasy playoffs are brutal. Better to move off of him now, whether you can sucker another manager into a trade or just simply dropping him and walking away (I suggest trying the former first).
“Alone”: Zach Ertz
Things are amiss in Washington, and what was an exceptionally attractive offense for fantasy football has become a pariah. Sans QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin, it’s hard to find value in the once-vaunted Commanders offense. While backup QB Marcus Mariota has performed admirably, it hasn’t translated into other assets in the offense.
While I could opine on the death of Deebo Samuel, we’re here to talk TEs and the decline of Zach Ertz.
It’s only fair to point out that Ertz has been good in spots, notably when Daniels has been behind center. All four of his TD catches were received from the former LSU QB. I wouldn’t move from Ertz right now. You won’t get much in return, and he’s enough of an “it could happen” candidate that he might be flex-worthy in Weeks 15 and 17.
“Hellbound”: Hunter Henry
That early-season Hunter Henry blow-up was fun, especially for those of us who were drafting the veteran TE later in drafts. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, and Henry’s boon took a nose-dive after Week 4.
To be fair, Henry was the overall half-PPR TE4 after 4 weeks, mostly because of two games. In Weeks 1 and 3, he had 19 targets, resulting in 12 catches for 156 yards, two TDs and 33.6 fantasy points. Week 4 was the start of a permanent course correction for Henry’s volume, but he still snagged a TD despite seeing just two targets.
Since Week 4, Henry is averaging 3.8 targets and 28.8 receiving yards per game and has two total touchdowns. Despite the limited volume, Henry continues to see a snap share above 75% on a regular basis.
The focus of the New England offense and QB Drake Maye has shifted away from Henry and is now focusing on stretching the field more. Henry is cemented in his role with limited volume, and the fantasy playoff stretch is brutal for Henry. While I wouldn’t say he is droppable, I’d work on a trade with a TE-needy team and be done with the veteran bookend.
Now What?
That was a lot to take in, but preparation is what separates contenders from champions. Let the information sink in, trust your instincts, and move forward with purpose. The truth might be out there, but the path to the championship is right in front of you.
Part 1 is out there. If you have specific questions, you know where to reach us.
Until next time, Optimus signing off.
For more advice, head over to our Discord channel and ask our analysts! For breaking news and injury updates, follow Optimus Fantasy News on Bluesky!
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